Economy
Fitch Lauds Rise in Foreign Portfolio Investment Inflows to Nigeria
By Adedapo Adesanya
Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Positive from Stable and affirmed the IDR at ‘B-‘.
In its latest rating released last Friday, the global agency pointed out that the positive outlook partly reflected reforms over the last year to support the restoration of macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility.
According to Fitch, “Nigeria’s rating is supported by its large economy, developed and liquid domestic debt market, and large oil and gas reserves. It is constrained by weak governance indicators relative to peers, high hydrocarbon dependence, limited crude oil production capacity, weak net FX reserves, high inflation, ongoing security challenges, and structurally low, albeit improving, non-oil revenue.”
It noted that in Nigeria, exchange rate and monetary policy frameworks have been adjusted, fuel subsidies reduced, coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) improved; CBN’s financing of the government scaled back, with administrative efficiency measures being taken to raise the currently low government revenue, as well as oil production.
“The reforms have reduced distortions stemming from previous unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies, resulting in the return of sizeable inflows to the official foreign exchange (FX) market. Nevertheless, we see significant short-term challenges, notably, inflation is high and the FX market has yet to stabilise, and the durability of the commitment to reform is to be tested.
“The CBN has stepped up efforts to reform the monetary and exchange rate framework following last year’s unification of the multiple exchange rate windows, and the large differential between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed. Average daily FX turnover at the official FX window has risen sharply from 2H23, and there has been clearance of $4.5 billion of the backlog of unpaid FX forwards (the validity of the outstanding $2.2 billion is being assessed by CBN), and weekly sales of FC to bureaux de changes (BDCs) have resumed (having been suspended since 2021).
“Greater formalisation of FX activity and monetary policy tightening has contributed to a significant rise in foreign portfolio investment inflows, and a fast appreciation of the naira at the official FX window, following the 71 per cent post-liberalisation depreciation between June 2023 and mid-March 2024, although the exchange rate remains volatile. However, Fitch views continued lack of clarity in the size of net FX reserves as a constraint on the sovereign’s credit profile,” it stated.
Fitch anticipated further increases in the CBN monetary policy rate in the second half of 2024, following the 600 basis points hike to 24.75 per cent since February 2024, alongside tightening of reserve requirements and, “strengthening of monetary policy transmission, after the recent resumption of open market operations at rates closely aligned to the MPR.”
“We project inflation, which rose to 33.2 per cent year-on-year in March due partly to exchange rate pass-through and rising food prices, to average 26.3 per cent in 2024 and 18.2 per cent in 2025, still well above our projected ‘B’ median of 4.5 per cent.
“Fitch forecasts the budget deficit to widen 0.3 percentage points (pp) in 2024 to 4.5 per cent of GDP (but 0.5pp lower than we projected at our last review). This is due to improving non-oil revenue and partial fuel subsidy removal being offset by underperformance in oil profits from Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (despite a potential improvement in oil production) and higher payments for debt servicing, personnel and capex.
“We project a two pp rise in general government (GG) revenue/GDP from 2023 to 2025 to 9.6 per cent, helped by increased mobilisation of non-oil tax revenue, to narrow the budget deficit to 4.1 per cent in 2025. Nevertheless, the GG revenue/GDP ratio would remain one of the lowest of Fitch-rated sovereigns. The government has sharply reduced recourse to its CBN ‘Ways and Means’ overdraft this year, and banks’ healthy foreign currency (FC) liquidity and strong demand for government securities support domestic financing capacity.
“We expect oil refining capacity to increase in 2024-2025 as the Dangote plant ramps up, with an eventual 0.65 mbpd capacity. This will reduce transportation costs and lower refined oil imports, which should ease FX demand. We anticipate an increase in crude oil production (including condensates) in 2024-2025, averaging 1.75 mbpd, from 1.58 mbpd in 2023, helped by improved onshore surveillance, but this is still well below the 2019 level, reflecting underinvestment in the sector and production outages,” it added.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Lagos State is currently agog because of the high-profile guests in the city for the Invest in Lagos Summit 3.0 commencing today, Monday, June 8, 2026.
The programme, which ends tomorrow, is themed Lagos: Business Gateway to Africa. It will feature a line-up of sessions focused on Lagos as Africa’s Global Gateway, the Future of Technology and Innovation, Unlocking Investment, Building the Cities of the Future, Global Partnerships for Growth, Talent, Creativity and Culture, and Energy and Sustainability.
The event is being put together by the Lagos State government and Commonwealth Enterprise and Investment Council (CWEIC).
The venue of the summit, Eko Hotel and Suites, is already lively, with the Lagos State Governor, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu; the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele; the co-chair of the Lagos Finance and Investment Council (LFIC), Aigboje Aig-Imoukhuede; and the chief executive of Moniepoint Incorporated, Mr Tosin Eniolorunda, amongst others expected to speak.
The workshop is designed to position Lagos as Africa’s premier destination for investment, trade, innovation, infrastructure development, and economic partnerships.
It is focused on unlocking investment opportunities and accelerating sustainable economic growth. It will bring together high-level participants from across the public and private sectors to explore opportunities in technology, infrastructure, energy, manufacturing, finance, creative industries, and urban development.
According to the Lagos Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Mr Gbenga Omotoso, the programme has been carefully structured to move beyond conversations and focus on actionable outcomes that can stimulate investment inflows into Lagos State.
He said the conference will provide a platform to showcase the state’s investments in transportation, technology, energy, manufacturing, tourism, and urban development, while also highlighting opportunities for local and international investors.
“Invest in Lagos 3.0 is more than a conference; it is a strategic platform designed to connect investors with opportunities, facilitate meaningful partnerships, and showcase Lagos as Africa’s most attractive investment destination.
“Through this summit, we are bringing together government leaders, global investors, development institutions, and business executives to explore opportunities that will unlock growth, create jobs, and accelerate economic development across Lagos and Nigeria,” the Commissioner, who doubles as the Head of the Media Subcommittee, stated.
The gathering will also feature investment pitches by governors, exhibitions by participating organisations, networking opportunities, a gala dinner, and site visits to major infrastructure and industrial projects, including the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, Lagos Free Zone, Lagos Port, and RusselSmith’s advanced manufacturing facility.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has expressed readiness to leverage the €59 million West Africa Sustainable Ocean Programme (WASOP) as part of intensified efforts to combat illegal, unreported and unregulated (IUU) fishing while strengthening sustainable management of its marine resources.
The Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr Adegboyega Oyetola, made this known in Abuja during a meeting with the European Union Ambassador to Nigeria, Mr Gautier Mignot, where both sides reaffirmed their commitment to deepening cooperation on maritime security and sustainable ocean governance.
Welcoming the EU Ambassador, Mr Oyetola commended the group for its longstanding partnership with Nigeria, particularly its support for maritime stability in the Gulf of Guinea, a region critical to global shipping and regional economic development.
He noted that the West Africa Sustainable Ocean Programme (WASOP) presents a timely opportunity to strengthen coordinated action against illegal fishing, improve ocean governance, and promote sustainable exploitation of marine resources across West Africa.
He said Nigeria is keen to fully engage with the programme to attract technical and financial support that will enhance enforcement capacity and boost the country’s blue economy ambitions.
The Minister stressed that illegal fishing remains a major threat to the marine ecosystem and coastal livelihoods, warning that IUU fishing continues to deplete fish stocks, undermine food security, and erode the economic well-being of coastal communities.
He said: “Illegal, unreported, and unregulated (IUU) fishing is a direct threat to national security, food sovereignty, and the survival of our coastal communities. We cannot afford to stand by and watch our marine ecosystems be depleted and economic livelihoods eroded.
“We are calling for an era of stronger international collaboration, backed by aggressive monitoring and uncompromised enforcement systems, to permanently dismantle these illicit operations and safeguard our waters.”
Mr Oyetola also highlighted ongoing reforms in Nigeria’s maritime sector under the National Policy on Marine and Blue Economy, which prioritises innovation, private sector investment, and sustainable development of ocean resources.
He referenced key milestones in the sector, including improvements in port operations and logistics, as well as enhanced maritime security.
He further noted that Nigeria is strengthening initiatives aimed at expanding its maritime infrastructure and improving competitiveness in global trade.
The Minister also reiterated the need for broader cooperation beyond piracy control, urging development partners to support Nigeria in addressing environmental crimes, human trafficking, and illegal fishing in a more integrated and coordinated manner.
He sought increased technical assistance from the European Union, particularly in surveillance systems, fisheries monitoring, and enforcement capacity to strengthen Nigeria’s ability to curb IUU fishing across the Gulf of Guinea.
On his part, Mr Mignot reaffirmed the European Union’s commitment to strengthening maritime cooperation with Nigeria and supporting regional efforts to ensure safer and more sustainable oceans.
He highlighted the West Africa Sustainable Ocean Programme (WASOP), a major EU-funded initiative designed to promote integrated ocean governance, sustainable fisheries management, and protection of coastal and marine ecosystems across West African countries.
According to him, the programme will support improved coordination among coastal states, strengthen enforcement mechanisms, and promote a more inclusive and sustainable blue economy in the region.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited recorded a 3.11 per cent week-on-week loss last week as a result of the decline suffered by 65 equities. In the preceding week, the bourse ended with 51 price decliners.
In the five-day trading week, 23 equities appreciated compared with 34 equities a week earlier, while 58 equities remained unchanged versus 61 equities in the preceding week.
Business Post reports there was no room for the bulls in the week, as all other indices closed in red, except for the sovereign bond, which finished flat.
ABC Transport lost 24.73 per cent to trade at N6.21, University Press shrank by 17.07 per cent to N5.10, Eterna crashed by 12.92 per cent to N30.00, John Holt slipped by 12.09 per cent to N14.90, and First Holdco decreased by 11.43 per cent to N62.00.
On the flip side, International Energy Insurance gained 60.62 per cent to sell for N7.26, Abbey Mortgage Bank expanded by 47.24 per cent to N9.35, Tripple Gee grew by 9.80 per cent to N4.37, Ikeja Hotel increased by 9.45 per cent to N44.00, and RT Briscoe soared by 8.86 per cent to N14.86.
At the close of business, market participants traded 3.966 billion shares worth N175.659 billion in 343,587 deals, in contrast to the 2.398 billion shares valued at N111.480 billion transacted in 241,313 deals a week earlier, which had only three trading sessions due to the Sallah holiday.
The financial services industry led the activity chart with 2.690 billion stocks sold for N69.975 billion in 134,882 deals, contributing 67.83 per cent and 39.84 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The services sector exchanged 323.601 million shares worth N6.443 billion in 25,906 deals, and the ICT segment traded 176.039 million equities valued at N27.892 billion in 40,837 deals.
Access Holdings, Abbey Mortgage Bank, and Sterling Holdco accounted for 1.290 billion units worth N17.560 billion in 17,768 deals, contributing 32.53 per cent and 10.00 per cent to the total equity turnover volume and value, respectively.
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