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Fitch Lauds Rise in Foreign Portfolio Investment Inflows to Nigeria

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Fitch Ratings

By Adedapo Adesanya

Fitch Ratings has revised the Outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to Positive from Stable and affirmed the IDR at ‘B-‘.

In its latest rating released last Friday, the global agency pointed out that the positive outlook partly reflected reforms over the last year to support the restoration of macroeconomic stability and enhance policy coherence and credibility.

According to Fitch, “Nigeria’s rating is supported by its large economy, developed and liquid domestic debt market, and large oil and gas reserves. It is constrained by weak governance indicators relative to peers, high hydrocarbon dependence, limited crude oil production capacity, weak net FX reserves, high inflation, ongoing security challenges, and structurally low, albeit improving, non-oil revenue.”

It noted that in Nigeria, exchange rate and monetary policy frameworks have been adjusted, fuel subsidies reduced, coordination between the Ministry of Finance and the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) improved; CBN’s financing of the government scaled back, with administrative efficiency measures being taken to raise the currently low government revenue, as well as oil production.

“The reforms have reduced distortions stemming from previous unconventional monetary and exchange rate policies, resulting in the return of sizeable inflows to the official foreign exchange (FX) market. Nevertheless, we see significant short-term challenges, notably, inflation is high and the FX market has yet to stabilise, and the durability of the commitment to reform is to be tested.

“The CBN has stepped up efforts to reform the monetary and exchange rate framework following last year’s unification of the multiple exchange rate windows, and the large differential between the official and parallel market rates has collapsed. Average daily FX turnover at the official FX window has risen sharply from 2H23, and there has been clearance of $4.5 billion of the backlog of unpaid FX forwards (the validity of the outstanding $2.2 billion is being assessed by CBN), and weekly sales of FC to bureaux de changes (BDCs) have resumed (having been suspended since 2021).

“Greater formalisation of FX activity and monetary policy tightening has contributed to a significant rise in foreign portfolio investment inflows, and a fast appreciation of the naira at the official FX window, following the 71 per cent post-liberalisation depreciation between June 2023 and mid-March 2024, although the exchange rate remains volatile. However, Fitch views continued lack of clarity in the size of net FX reserves as a constraint on the sovereign’s credit profile,” it stated.

Fitch anticipated further increases in the CBN monetary policy rate in the second half of 2024, following the 600 basis points hike to 24.75 per cent since February 2024, alongside tightening of reserve requirements and, “strengthening of monetary policy transmission, after the recent resumption of open market operations at rates closely aligned to the MPR.”

“We project inflation, which rose to 33.2 per cent year-on-year in March due partly to exchange rate pass-through and rising food prices, to average 26.3 per cent in 2024 and 18.2 per cent in 2025, still well above our projected ‘B’ median of 4.5 per cent.

“Fitch forecasts the budget deficit to widen 0.3 percentage points (pp) in 2024 to 4.5 per cent of GDP (but 0.5pp lower than we projected at our last review). This is due to improving non-oil revenue and partial fuel subsidy removal being offset by underperformance in oil profits from Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation Limited (despite a potential improvement in oil production) and higher payments for debt servicing, personnel and capex.

“We project a two pp rise in general government (GG) revenue/GDP from 2023 to 2025 to 9.6 per cent, helped by increased mobilisation of non-oil tax revenue, to narrow the budget deficit to 4.1 per cent in 2025. Nevertheless, the GG revenue/GDP ratio would remain one of the lowest of Fitch-rated sovereigns. The government has sharply reduced recourse to its CBN ‘Ways and Means’ overdraft this year, and banks’ healthy foreign currency (FC) liquidity and strong demand for government securities support domestic financing capacity.

“We expect oil refining capacity to increase in 2024-2025 as the Dangote plant ramps up, with an eventual 0.65 mbpd capacity. This will reduce transportation costs and lower refined oil imports, which should ease FX demand. We anticipate an increase in crude oil production (including condensates) in 2024-2025, averaging 1.75 mbpd, from 1.58 mbpd in 2023, helped by improved onshore surveillance, but this is still well below the 2019 level, reflecting underinvestment in the sector and production outages,” it added.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Increased Household Penetration, Others Buoy PZ Cussons FY’26 Revenue Growth

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PZ Cussons

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Leading manufacturer of personal healthcare products and consumer goods, PZ Cussons Plc, recorded a 22 per cent growth in its revenue in the 2026 fiscal year.

In its unaudited results recently submitted to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, the company posted revenue of N260.46 billion in the period under review compared with the N212.63 billion achieved in the corresponding period in 2025.

This revenue growth was buoyed by market share gains for its major brands, increased household penetration and robust volume uplift, according to the chief executive of PZ Cussons, Mr Oghale Elueni.

It was observed that the cost of sales as a percentage of revenue was 72 per cent, 100bps lower than the prior year, driven by better mix and supply efficiencies.

Marketing and distribution expenses increased by 48.2 per cent to N26.51 billion from N17.89 billion, and administrative expenses also spiked by 43 per cent to N21.07 billion from N14.70 billion.

Also, the organisation recorded significant profitability for the year ended May 31, 2026, rising by 388 per cent to N49.10 billion from N10.07 billion.

Mr Elueni attributed this strong performance to the strength of the business, the equity of the brands, and the discipline of execution, noting that despite the complex and consistently challenging operating environment, the company pulled through to deliver growth in both revenue and profit.

He disclosed that the 22 per cent revenue growth recorded for the 2026 financial year was influenced by a healthy mix of volume and price initiatives.

“The balance sheet was further de-leveraged and strengthened through a cash-accretive P&L and efficient working capital management. The impact has been an improvement in the net asset position from N17.3 billion negative at the beginning of the year to N70.6 billion at year-end.

“The business grew volumes in both the electrical and consumer business, leveraging investment in our brands and sharpening our go-to-market capabilities. The result has been market share gains for our major brands, increased household penetration and robust volume uplift, contributing to overall revenue growth,” he stated.

Mr Elueni expressed profound appreciation to the shareholders for their unwavering support in navigating through the challenges in the last 12 months, noting that the board remains confident that, despite geopolitical uncertainties and their attendant economic shocks, the business is sufficiently resourced to deliver value to stakeholders.

“We have a business that has strong brands, an adaptive operating framework and a culture of disciplined execution that supports the consistent delivery of value to stakeholders,” he stated.

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Economy

Nigeria Records Higher Crude Oil Production in May, June

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crude oil 1.27 million barrels per day

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s crude oil production increased in May and June, according to data published by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The country’s output increased by 42,000 barrels per day to 1,530 million barrels in May, from 1,489 million barrels in April.

According to Reuters, Nigeria, whose shipments were not affected by the Iran war, also pumped ⁠more in June, based on flow data from financial group LSEG, information from other companies that track flows, such as ⁠Kpler, and data provided by sources at oil companies, OPEC, and consultants.

Output from the OPEC rose by 2.34 million barrels a day to 18.75 million a day, with the gains driven by Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and Iran, the survey showed. The rebound still leaves production considerably below prewar levels.

Kuwait posted the biggest increase among OPEC’s 11 members last month, boosting output by 870,000 barrels a day to 1.36 million a day followed by Saudi Arabia, which raised output by 550,000 barrels a day to an average of 7.2 million a day. That was followed by Iran, which hiked by 510,000 a day to pump 2.85 million a day, and has accumulated a hoard of supply on tankers at sea as it struggles to find buyers.

In the wider alliance, Russia has bolstered crude exports to record levels following Ukrainian strikes on its refineries, potentially diverting volumes that can’t be processed at home.

Even before the peace deal, Persian Gulf producers had found ways to sneak cargoes out through the strait, which was largely shuttered in the early stages of the conflict.

The uptick in supply is creating a surplus in parts of the market, erasing crude’s wartime rally and raising the question of whether OPEC nations will need to compete for customers.

The group’s June production was still 7.3 million barrels a day, or 28 per cent, below February levels, when adjusted for exit by the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

The UAE quit OPEC in May, giving it the freedom to pump at will once the strait fully stabilises. Iraq also briefly threatened it could exit unless eventually given a higher output quota by the organisation.

On Sunday, a subgroup of seven OPEC+ nations announced a 188,000 barrels a day boost in August continuing the series of small and symbolic production hikes during the war to continue a process of restoring output halted a few years ago.

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Economy

Shareholders Clear Path for Dangote Cement’s London Secondary Listing

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Dangote Cement AGM social investments

By Adedapo Adesanya

Shareholders of Dangote Cement Plc have approved plans that could pave the way for the company’s secondary listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE) while also endorsing a final dividend of N45.00 per ordinary share for the 2025 financial year.

The resolutions were passed at the company’s 17th Annual General Meeting (AGM) held on Thursday at Eko Hotels & Suites in Lagos, where shareholders also approved the audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025.

The approval for an international secondary listing marks a significant step in Dangote Cement’s plans to broaden its access to global capital markets and enhance its international investor base.

In May, the company’s founder Mr Aliko Dangote said the cement subsidiary was planning a London listing to sell 10 per cent stake, sixteen years after debuting on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited. This would provide the company with the much-needed boost to compete in the United Kingdom market.

Shareholders also ratified the payment of a final dividend of N45.00 per ordinary share from the company’s retained earnings as of December 31, 2025. The dividend was paid on Thursday, July 2, 2026.

At the meeting, shareholders approved the appointment of Ms Mariya Aliko-Dangote to the company’s board of directors. In recent months, the eldest daughter of the billionaire as well as her sisters Halima and Fatima, have been strategically positioned across their father’s empire in what has been touted as succession plans.

They also re-elected four directors retiring by rotation: Mr Emmanuel Ikazoboh, an Independent Non-Executive Director; Mr Olakunle Alake, a Non-Executive Director; Ms Berlina Moroole, a Non-Executive Director; and Mr Alvaro Poncioni Merian, an Independent Non-Executive Director.

In addition, shareholders authorised the board to determine the remuneration of the company’s external auditors for the 2026 financial year.

The AGM also noted the disclosure of managers’ remuneration in compliance with the provisions of the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) 2020.

Shareholders further approved the election of Mr Robert Ade-Odiachi, Mr Sheriff Yussuf Mojirola and Mr Nicholas Nyamali as shareholders’ representatives on the Statutory Audit Committee. They will serve alongside the company’s representatives, Mr Ernest Ebi and Mr Olakunle Alake, until the next AGM.

They also approved annual remuneration of N20 million for the chairman and N15 million each for the non-executive directors for the financial year ending December 31, 2026.

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