Feature/OPED
6 Megatrends That Are Changing Africa—and How to Navigate Them
Picture the world’s children in 2050. Where do they come from? The answer might surprise you. If today’s demographic trends continue, almost half of all people under 18—about 40%—will have been born and raised in Africa.
As digital penetration increases, a growing number will be adept users of technology, and some will be part of a new generation of world-class innovators in Africa.
Most of this population will grow up in cities, often in urban areas that doubled in size during their childhood. Regardless of where they live, many may be desperately affected by the consequences of climate change.
Moreover, as these young Africans grow up, they will become an enormous consumer market and a large share of the global workforce. As a group, they could become influential in the growth of international business and the evolution of emerging markets.
So far, however, none of the stakeholder institutions that will be involved in their lives—businesses, governments, civil society organizations, and development agencies—are fully prepared for the opportunities and challenges created by this new demographic.
Why Africa’s Future Matters
The ongoing African baby boom is just one of six broad megatrends that are already beginning to affect the continent. Others include the accelerating urbanization of the region into megacities, the expansion of internet and digital penetration, and the increasing effects of climate change. Two other factors that will shape Africa’s future are a growing movement toward international cooperation within the continent and the rise of local innovation, including many advances led by women and young entrepreneurs.
To better understand these megatrends—and to suggest game-changing moves that might help the continent reach its remarkable potential—we conducted an in-depth strategic analysis of prospects for Africa over the next 30 years.
More than 120 experts from a wide range of backgrounds participated in interviews, workshops, and focus groups. These advisors included African political and business leaders, including executives of leading firms across sectors; influential figures in civil society, academia, and key not-for-profit organizations; thought leaders on African economics, society, and development; and leaders from US government agencies working in Africa (including the project sponsor, USAID).
The mood in most of these conversations reflected a mix of excitement and concern. Unlocking the power of Africa’s people is a daunting task—but doing so will be fundamental to achieving a brighter future for African citizens, and for economic growth and development in the rest of the world as well.
The Six Megatrends
Here is a closer look at the most significant megatrends forging the Africa of the mid-21st century.
Africa’s People Will Be Young
By 2050, the population of the continent, including sub-Saharan and North Africa, will double to reach 2.5 billion. As much as 60% of Africa’s people will be under 25. A huge working-age population can be a disruptive force, leading to unrest and migration if there are insufficient jobs. But with ample opportunity, the youthful demographics can help catalyze economic growth, particularly in domains that require motivated and skilled labour, such as manufacturing, energy (especially the transition to green sources), and digital technology.
With its young population and an estimated combined GDP of $2.96 trillion in 2022, Africa is poised to become the world’s largest growth market for consumer goods and services. It may also serve as a primary resource for talent, exporting digital natives and skilled labour to the rest of the world. These bright futures can only come to pass, however, if the region’s educational institutions, supported by government and private investment, can provide the necessary schooling, skills training, and related services—a task that could require as many as 17 million additional professional educators. “If Africa is to create jobs for the youth bulge,” says Corporate Council on Africa CEO Florie Liser, “[its countries will] need to harness their capability to add value, to become bigger players in regional and global supply chains, and thereby impact their development.”
Africa’s Cities Will Be Crowded
Urban areas in Africa will attract an additional 1 billion residents by 2050. Experts forecast the urban population to triple and the number of “megacities” —densely settled areas with 10 million or more residents—to increase from three (currently Cairo, Kinshasa, and Lagos) to 14. The growth of African cities will add vibrancy to the economy and culture of the region, attracting significant foreign investment and strengthening global business and trade ties.
When urbanization occurs this abruptly, it can destabilize a region; it can be challenging to provide basic services such as electric power and education, along with transportation links. However, if investment in infrastructure can occur rapidly enough, then urbanization tends to accelerate GDP and consumer spending, facilitate entrepreneurship and innovation, create new markets, and increase worker productivity. It can also lead to greater interchange between the government, the private sector, and the employee base. “Without that dialogue,” says Yvonne Tsikata, former World Bank Vice President and Corporate Secretary, “we will not succeed in achieving our development goals.”
The Continent Will Be Vulnerable To Climate Change
Despite contributing less than 4% to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, 35 of the 50 countries most at risk from climate change effects are located in Africa. The continent can expect a temperature increase that will occur 1.5 times faster than the global average increase. This will lead to total deglaciation of Africa’s mountainous areas by 2050, rising sea levels along the coasts, and more extreme weather events, including droughts, storms, floods, and excessive heat and cold. These changes will have catastrophic impact on biodiversity and animal habitats—especially worrying because Africa is home to 25% of the world’s remaining rainforests. Climate change will also adversely affect some African livelihoods, such as farming and energy-related jobs, which are vulnerable to weather-related conditions. It may also intensify the threat from viruses and other health risks.
To mitigate these effects, the continent’s leaders will have to address current gaps in the availability of climate-related data. “We need to think about how to get accurate information to people on the ground in a timely manner,” says Joanne Yawitch, CEO of the National Business Initiative in South Africa, “and educate people on how to act on the data.” Many experts believe that climate-related challenges could drive Africa to become a center of innovation, leading the development of solutions.
Among the possibilities, which could add up to a $320 billion industrial sector in Africa, are renewable energy (building on the region’s abundance of solar, wind, and geothermal resources and its experience with off-the-grid solar solutions), carbon sequestration (taking advantage of Africa’s lands, forests, and coastlines), and new approaches to sustainable land use and agriculture. All of these are potential vehicles for green job creation.
Africa Will Move Quickly Into Digital Technology
This will occur more rapidly than many people currently expect. Africa’s digital tech sector, including software, cloud, and internet services, has experienced tremendous growth since 2010. Currently, its five-year growth rate is at 47%. Internet penetration has grown tenfold in the past 12 years, and the internet economy will reach $712 billion by 2050. There are more than 600 active digital and technological hubs across the continent, all making notable advances in fostering innovation and with both home-grown and global companies participating. The largest clusters of digital activity are in Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa—with Ghana, Morocco, and Tunisia close behind.
“We’ve seen some exciting green shoots of growing digital capacity on the continent, but there’s more work to be done,” says Nitin Gajria, Managing Director, Google Sub-Saharan Africa. “The key pillars to advancing Africa’s digital growth are increasing connectivity; investing in entrepreneurs; creating affordable, fit-for-context products; and supporting civil society in doing these.” With appropriate investments in infrastructure, upskilling, and education at a large scale, Africa’s immense working-age population could position it as one of the world’s leaders in digital services.
The Region Will Be More Open To Intracontinental Cooperation
The COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent food crisis have demonstrated to African decision-makers in the public and private sectors that the continent needs to become more self-sufficient. Its countries and businesses need to cooperate more and reduce their reliance on international support. A few initiatives have begun to move Africa in this direction.
For example, in 2018, 44 of the 55 African countries signed the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement (AfCFTA), establishing the world’s largest such trade bloc in terms of population and land area, covering 1.3 billion people. As of 2021, it has been signed by 54 member states and is gradually advancing to becoming operational. If the pact can overcome complex hurdles of the past—such as logistics, visas, and existing barriers to trade—it could produce substantial positive economic value. “The AfCFTA is very promising. Its potential impact in fighting key continental challenges such as food insecurity is huge,” comments former Senior Vice President of the African Development Bank Charles Boamah. “The political will that enabled this landmark agreement needs to be sustained to assure effective implementation and full realization of the promise.”
Another indicator of support for intracontinental cooperation was the African Union’s adoption in 2015 of Agenda 2063, a blueprint for future projects such as high-speed rail systems. There is also more interest in strengthening continental and regional organizations such as the AU, Southern African Development Community, and the Economic Community of West African States.
Africa Will Be a More Active Source Of Innovation And Entrepreneurship
About 22% of working-age Africans start small businesses, as compared to 18% in Latin America and 13% in Asia. The continent has a history of breakthrough innovation in recent years, including mobile payment and digital health care platforms. The continent’s entrepreneurial culture is especially promising from the standpoint of gender parity. Women from Africa are twice as likely to start an enterprise as women in other geographies. This rise in innovation is supported by the continent’s digital hubs, but is not limited to information and communications technology. Entrepreneurship in Africa is beginning to fuel transformative change in sectors such as energy, health services, pharmaceuticals, and sustainable agriculture and land use. In fact, the agricultural sector could grow to as much as $320 billion per year in annual revenues by 2030, helping to solve the challenges of food shortages related to climate change. Africa could even evolve into a breadbasket for Europe and the Middle East.
“Nigeria remains at the nexus of innovation in Africa, with many young innovators designing solutions ranging from e-health to agritech, thereby boosting macro-economic gains and creating a more inclusive economy. This is critical as Africa’s pressing challenges can be mitigated through sustainable solutions and partnerships between the government and private sector players,” according to Tolu Oyekan, Managing Director & Partner, Head of BCG, Nigeria.
Meeting the Opportunities and Challenges
If these megatrends can be navigated successfully, they could help in advancing Africa’s social and economic progress. The world has seen many emerging economies parlay their young populations and entrepreneurial spirit into innovative growth. With targeted investment and thoughtful action, the same could be true for Africa.
One critical enabler to African innovation should be the expansion and availability of funding sources, including venture capital and private equity. “There are many bright innovators on the continent who have incredible ideas, but can’t monetize them due to an inability to access capital,” says Nicholas Nesbitt, chairman of the Kenya Private Sector Alliance. “Creating new channels for investments will be key to supporting African innovation.”
If you would like to learn more about significant trends and promising policy developments in Africa, see the full report here. The report also details two game-changing concepts with the strongest potential to drive African development over the next decade: digital skills acceleration and climate analytics and planning. This research was funded by the USAID Mission to the African Union and conducted by Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
Feature/OPED
CBN’s New Cash Policy: A Welcome Liberalisation or a Risky Retreat?
By Blaise Udunze
On December 2, 2025, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) announced a policy that significantly departs from the cash-restriction measures Nigerians have faced lately. The apex bank abolished restrictions on cash deposits. Increased the weekly cash withdrawal limits to N500,000 for individuals and N5 million for corporates while substituting the earlier monthly limits of N5 million and N10 million respectively. These modifications, which will be effective from January 1, 2026, represent what the CBN describes as the necessity to “streamline provisions to reflect present-day realities.”
Authorized by the Director of Financial Policy & Regulation, Dr. Rita I. Sike, the policy overhaul aims to lower cash-management expenses, improve security, and lessen money-laundering threats related to Nigeria’s significant dependence on physical cash. Daily ATM withdrawal limits stay fixed at N100,000 and count toward the total cap. Withdrawals exceeding the limits incur charges of three percent for individuals and five percent for companies, with the revenues divided: 40 percent to the CBN and 60 percent to the banks.
This update comes three years following the disputed 2022-2023 cash redesign crisis at a time characterized by extreme cash deficits, extended lines at banks, and devastating impacts on the informal economy. Consequently, the newest order generates responses: praise from individuals who consider it delayed aid, disapproval from those perceiving it as a bewildering backtrack, and concern from those apprehensive about potential enduring hazards.
Experts Applaud a More Realistic Modification
For economists, in a publication by Nairametrics showed that the action taken by the CBN signifies much-needed practicality. Dr. Salisu Ahmed, an economist based in Abuja, refers to the updated limits as “a step,” praising the CBN for gaining a clearer insight into “cash management practices in a predominantly informal economy.”
He stated that the changes will alleviate the difficulties faced by families and small enterprises due to restrictions. Rigid withdrawal caps had limited transactions, made small-scale commerce more difficult, and caused numerous businesses to experience cash-flow problems. “This adjustment signifies a response from the CBN recognizing the challenges Nigerians face daily and easing rules that previously hindered commerce and individual management,” he clarified.
Banking analyst, David Omale, echoes this view, seeing the CBN’s action as a sign of responsiveness. He points out that higher limits could “enhance liquidity for firms facing challenges from inflation, supply-chain issues and unpredictable cash flows.”
In an economy in which over 60 percent of trade is informal and where the adoption of digital payments varies across different socio-economic groups, experts suggest the updated limits correspond more accurately to real-world conditions. These limits offer businesses flexibility to reinstate transactional liberty and may help recover public confidence diminished by previous cash shortages.
Critics Caution About Continuing Disparities and New Threats
However, the praise is not universally shared. Numerous specialists and industry participants contend that the modifications, although appreciated, are inadequate or might even be detrimental.
Financial strategist Nnenna Okafor contends that the updated limits are insufficient for traders and micro-businesses that depend largely on cash to sustain their operations amid challenges. Due to increasing product prices, logistical difficulties, and unreliable digital banking services in regions, she asserts that numerous Nigerians will still need more liquidity than the new thresholds to stay viable.
Within PoS operators’ players, in Nigeria’s payment system, the response is notably divided.
PoS Operators Split
Certain PoS agents appreciate the modifications, anticipating that they will:
– Reduce friction with banks over “flagged” transactions
– Facilitate processes for clients requiring withdrawals
– Rebuild trust after months of cash shortages
Others convey concern. A PoS operator in Lagos cautions that greater cash availability could hinder the adoption of payments. “While easier access to cash can address problems, it may also decrease dependence on PoS terminals and other digital payment solutions that provide long-term security and efficiency,” she remarked.
She argues that if the CBN does not combine the policy with targeted incentives to encourage payment uptake, Nigeria runs the risk of regressing into deep-rooted reliance on cash.
Another operator in Abuja points out a different issue that has to do with unstable cash supply at numerous commercial banks. He insists that simply boosting withdrawal limits does not automatically fix supply shortages. “If banks cannot consistently provide cash, raising limits fails to solve the issue,” he stated.
Other operators also caution that the new setting might push fintech firms out of the market, which possibly allows monopolies to form since only big payment firms can endure the transition back to increased cash usage.
Experts in Security Alert to Increasing Threats, from Crime
Apart from operational issues, security experts have expressed concerns about the dangers linked to greater cash flow.
Abas Ogendengbe, a security expert at Anold Consulting Ltd., warns that increased access to amounts without strict controls “opens up risks for theft, fraud and money laundering.” He contends that without improvements in surveillance transaction tracking and reporting frameworks by banks, criminal groups might take advantage of the restrictions.
Nigeria continues to confront:
– High rates of petty theft
– Organised criminal cash-for-goods networks
– Ransom-based criminality
– Fraudulent cash-flow manipulation
He contends that a policy boosting the amount of currency in circulation should consequently be accompanied by enhanced institutional protections, rather than diminished ones.
Advantages of the New Policy: Relief, Liquidity, and Business Freedom
Although it has faced criticism, the CBN’s decision carries benefits:
- Increased Liquidity for the Informal Sector
Small-scale merchants, farm producers, haulers, craftsmen, and market participants relying significantly on cash will experience ease in transferring money, purchasing stock, and expanding their businesses.
- Reduced Transaction Friction
Companies that once faced limiting restrictions now recover agility, enhancing business continuity and lowering administrative challenges.
- Restoration of Public Trust
After the trauma of the cash scarcity era, easing restrictions may slowly rebuild confidence in the banking system and encourage more people to save and transact through formal channels.
- Policy Simplicity
The updated limits, while still restricted, are more straightforward and less administrative compared to the special-authorization system.
The Disadvantages: Policy Volatility, Inflationary Risks, and Stunted Digitalisation
Nonetheless, the policy change is also accompanied by drawbacks:
- Weakening of Monetary Policy Credibility
Regular significant reversals indicate instability and undermine confidence. A central bank needs to be consistent and foreseeable; Nigeria’s policy environment has shifted in the contrary.
- Potential for More Money Laundering
Unlimited cash deposits and increased withdrawal limits are inconsistent with standards for preventing illegal financial transactions.
- Undermining Digital Payment Growth
The increase in fintech was expedited amidst cash availability. A return to reliance on cash might hinder innovation. Dampen the use of safer trackable digital methods.
- Increased Risk of Robbery and Cash-Based Crime
An increased amount of cash in use results in tangible currency to be stolen additional opportunities for criminals and amplified operational difficulties for the police.
- Higher Costs of Cash Management
The processes of currency production, circulation, and safeguarding place financial strains on the banking sector and the CBN.
Policy Details and Operational Complexities
The CBN’s circular offers instructions for operations:
– Excess withdrawal charges:
3 percent for individuals
5 percent for corporates
– Revenue sharing:
40 percent to CBN, 60 percent to banks
– Withdrawals from ATMs and PoS terminals contribute to the limit, highlighting the importance for customers to monitor where their withdrawals originate.
– ATMs can now be loaded with all denominations, although third-party cheque cashing is still limited to N100,000.
– Exemptions are maintained for government revenue accounts, microfinance banks, and primary mortgage banks.
– The removal of exemptions for embassies and donor agencies is a move that some parties consider diplomatically risky.
The CBN frames this policy change as a balance, boosting liquidity while still maintaining the nation’s goal of a cashless economy. Nevertheless, its effectiveness depends on the ability of the government and financial institutions to encourage payments while addressing the security challenges posed by greater cash circulation.
A Relief Today, a Question Mark Tomorrow
The CBN’s updated cash-policy structure provides support for families, small enterprises, and the informal sector. It addresses some of the severe effects of previous policies and shows a readiness, though delayed, to adjust to practical realities.
However, the enduring consequences are complex. The policy creates openings, as money laundering hampers progress in payments, increases security threats, and shows a regulatory environment grappling with achieving stability and trustworthiness.
Nigeria is at an intersection. While cash can relieve hardships, it cannot shape the future economic landscape. The current task is to apply this policy without hindering progress, undermining financial integrity, or jeopardizing monetary stability.
The question of whether this constitutes a liberalisation or an expensive withdrawal will in the end hinge on a single element, the CBN’s ability to pair increased liquidity with stronger oversight, steadfast policy direction, and sustained digital-payment incentives.
Only then can Nigeria avoid sliding backward and instead build a financial system that truly reflects the realities of its people, its economy, and its future.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]
Feature/OPED
When Stability Matters: Gauging Gusau’s Quiet Wins for Nigerian Football
By Barr. Adefila Kamal
Football in Nigeria has never been just a sport. It is emotion, argument, nationalism, and sometimes heartbreak wrapped into ninety minutes. That passion is a gift, but it often comes with a tendency to shout down progress before it has the chance to grow. In the middle of this noise sits the Nigeria Football Federation under the leadership of Ibrahim Musa Gusau, a man who has chosen steady hands over loud speeches, structure over drama, and long-term rebuilding over chasing instant applause.
When Gusau took office in 2022, he understood one thing clearly: the only way to fix Nigerian football is to repair its foundations. He said it openly during the 2025 NNL monthly awards ceremony — you cannot build an edifice from the rooftop. And true to that conviction, his tenure has taken shape quietly through structural investments that don’t trend on social media but matter where the future of the game is built. The construction of a players’ hostel and modern training pitches at the Moshood Abiola Stadium is one of the clearest signs of this shift. Nigeria has gone decades without basic infrastructure for its national teams, especially youth and age-grade squads. Gusau’s administration broke that pattern by delivering the first dedicated national-team hostel in our history, a project that signals an understanding that success is not luck — it is preparation.
The same thread runs through grassroots football. The maiden edition of the FCT FA Women’s Inter-Area Councils Football Tournament emerged under this administration, giving young female players a structured platform instead of the token attention they usually receive. These initiatives are not flashy. They do not dominate headlines. But they form the bedrock of any footballing nation that wants to be taken seriously.
Gusau’s leadership has also focused on lifting the domestic leagues out of years of decline. The NFF has revamped professional and semi-professional competitions, working to create consistent scheduling, fair officiating, and marketable competition structures. The growing number of global broadcasting partnerships — something unheard of in the old NPFL era — has brought more eyes, more credibility and more opportunities for clubs and players. Monthly awards for players, coaches and referees have introduced a culture of performance and merit, something our domestic game has needed for years. These are reforms that reshape the culture of football far beyond one season.
Internationally, Nigeria regained a powerful seat at the table when Gusau was elected President of the West African Football Union (WAFU B). This is not a ceremonial achievement. In football politics, influence determines opportunities, hosting rights, development grants, international appointments and the respect with which nations are treated. For too long, Nigeria’s voice in the region was inconsistent. Gusau’s emergence changes that, and it places Nigeria in a position where its administrative competence cannot be dismissed.
His administration has also made it clear that women’s football, youth development and academy systems are no longer side projects. There is a renewed intention to repair the broken pathways that once produced global stars with almost predictable frequency. If Nigeria is going to remain a powerhouse, development must become a machine, not an afterthought.
Still, for many observers, none of this seems to matter because the yardstick is always a single match, a single tournament or a single disappointing moment. Public criticism often grows louder than the facts. Fans want instant results, and when they don’t come, the instinct is to blame whoever is in office at the moment. But this approach has repeatedly sabotaged Nigerian football. Constant leadership changes wipe out institutional memory and scatter reform efforts before they mature. No nation becomes great by resetting its football house every time tempers flare.
Gusau’s leadership is unfolding at a time when FIFA and CAF are tightening their expectations for professionalism, financial transparency and infrastructure. Nigeria cannot afford scandals, disarray or combative politics. We need the kind of administrative consistency that global football bodies can trust — and this is exactly the lane Gusau has chosen. He has not been perfect; no administrator is. But he has been consistent, measured and focused. In an ecosystem that often rewards noise, this is rare.
For progress to hold, Nigeria must shift from the culture of outrage to a culture of constructive contribution. The media, civil society, ex-players, club owners, fan groups — everyone has a role. The truth is that Nigerian football’s biggest enemy has never been the NFF president, whoever he might be at the time. The real enemies are impatience, instability and emotional decision-making. They derail strategy. They kill reforms. They weaken institutions. And they turn football — our greatest cultural asset — into a battlefield of blame.
Gusau’s effort to reposition the NFF is a reminder that real development is rarely glamorous. It is slow, disciplined and often misunderstood. But it is the only route that leads to the future we claim to want: a football system built on structure, modern governance, infrastructure, youth development and global influence. Nigeria will flourish when we start protecting our institutions instead of tearing them down after every misstep.
If we truly want Nigerian football to rise, we must recognise genuine work when we see it. We must support continuity when it is clearly producing a roadmap. And we must resist the temptation to substitute outrage for analysis. Ibrahim Musa Gusau’s tenure is not defined by noise. It is defined by groundwork — the kind that elevates nations long after the shouting stops.
Barr. Adefila Kamal is a legal practitioner and development specialist. He serves as the National President of the Civil Society Network for Good Governance (CSNGG), with a long-standing commitment to transparency, institutional reform and sports governance in Nigeria
Feature/OPED
Unlocking Capital for Infrastructure: The Case for Project Bonds in Nigeria
By Taiwo Olatunji, CFA
Nigeria’s infrastructure ambition is not constrained by vision, but by the financing architecture. The public sector balance sheet, which has been the primary source of financing, has become very tight, while financing from the private sector is available and increasing, with a focus on long-term, naira-denominated assets. Hence, the challenge lies in effectively connecting this capital to bankable projects at scale and with discipline. Project bonds, created, structured and distributed by investment banks, are the instruments required to bridge the country’s infrastructure needs.
The scale of the need is clear. Nigeria’s Revised NIIMP (2020–2043) estimates ~US$2.3 trillion, about US$100bn, a year is required annually for the next 30 years to lift infrastructure to 70% of GDP. Africa’s pensions, insurers and sovereign funds already hold over US$1.1 trillion that can be mobilised for this purpose, but they require new and innovative approaches to enhance their participation in addressing this challenge.
What is broken with the status quo?
Nigeria continues to finance inherently long-dated assets through the issuance of local currency public bonds, Sukuk and Eurobonds. This approach creates a heavy burden on the government’s balance sheet while sometimes causing refinancing risk and FX exposures, where naira cash flows service dollar liabilities. It has also led to the slow conversion of the pipeline of identified projects because many infrastructure projects have not been prepared, appraised and structured to attract the private sector.
Why project bonds and where they sit in the stack
Project bonds are debt securities issued by project SPVs and serviced from project cash flows, typically secured by concessions, offtake agreements, or availability payments. Unlike typical bonds (corporate or government), which are backed by the sponsor’s balance sheets, project bonds are backed by the cash flow generated by the financed project. They often have longer duration, are tradeable, aligned with the long operating life of infrastructure projects and best suited for pension and insurance investors.
Globally, this type of instrument has been used to finance major projects such as toll roads, power plants, and social infrastructure. For example, in Latin America, transportation and energy projects have been financed through project bonds from local and international investors, through the 144A market, a U.S. framework that allows companies to access large institutional investors without going through a full public offering. Similarly, in India, rupee-denominated project bonds have benefited from partial credit guarantees provided by institutions like Crédit Agricole Corporate and Investment Bank, which help lower investment risk and attract more investors.
In practice, project bonds can be structured in two ways: (i) as a take-out instrument, refinancing bank or DFI construction loans once an asset has reached operational stability; or (ii) as a bond issued from day one for brownfield or late-stage greenfield projects where revenue visibility is high, often supported by credit enhancements such as guarantees.
In both cases, the instrument achieves the same outcome: aligning long-term, project cash flows with the long-term liabilities of domestic institutional investors.
The enabling ecosystem is already emerging
1. Nigeria is not starting from zero. Regulatory infrastructure is already in place. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has issued detailed rules governing Project Bonds and Infrastructure Funds, creating standardized issuance structures aligned with global best practice and familiar to institutional investors. The SEC is also mulling the inclusion of the proposed rules on Credit Enhancement Service Providers in the existing rules of the Commission.
2. Market benchmarks are already available. The sovereign yield curve, published by the Debt Management Office (DMO) through its regular monthly auctions, provides a transparent reference point for pricing. This curve serves as the base risk-free rate, against which project bond spreads can be calibrated to reflect construction, operating, and sector-specific risks.
3. The National Pension Commission (PenCom) has revised its Regulation on the investment of Pension Fund Assets, increasing the amount of the country’s N25.9 trillion pension assets to be allocated to infrastructure.
4. InfraCredit has established a robust local-currency guarantee framework, supporting an aggregate guaranteed portfolio of approximately ₦270 billion. The portfolio carries a weighted average tenor of ~8 years, with demonstrated capacity to extend maturities up to 20 years. (InfraCredit 2025)
Why merchant banks should lead
Merchant banks sit at the nexus of origination, structuring, underwriting, and distribution, and they need to work with projects sponsors, financiers and government to develop a pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects. A pipeline of bankable infrastructure projects is important to attract investors as they prefer to invest in an economy with a recognizable pipeline. A pipeline also suggests that a structured and well-thought-out approach was adopted, and the projects would have identified all the major risks and the proposed mitigants to address the identified risks.
This “banks-as-catalysts” model, an economic framework that states banks can play an active and creative role in promoting industrialization and economic development, particularly in emerging markets, can be adopted to structure and mobilise domestic private finance into Infrastructure projects.
Coronation Merchant Bank’s role and vision
At Coronation, we believe the identification, structuring and testing of bankable infrastructure projects are the constraints to mobilization of private capital into the infrastructure space. We bring an integrated platform across Financial Advisory, Capital Mobilization, Commercial Debt, Private Debt and Alternative Financing to identify, structure, underwrite and distribute infrastructure debt into domestic institutions. The Bank works with DFIs, guarantee providers and other banks to scale issuance. Our franchise has supported infrastructure debt issuances via the capital markets, likewise Nigerian corporates and the Government.
From Insight to Execution
If you are considering the issuance of a project bond or you want to discuss pipeline readiness, kindly contact [email protected] or call 020-01279760.
Taiwo Olatunji, CFA is the Group Head of Investment Banking at Coronation Merchant Bank
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