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Unlocking WTO Potential in Changing Geopolitical World

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Professor Maurice Okoli

Professor Maurice Okoli

Moving forward with women’s empowerment, exhibiting female leadership and entrepreneurial capabilities, Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala confirmed as the sole candidate for the World Trade Organization arguably represents the voice of the Global South and concretely the voice of Africa. Okonjo-Iweala brings unique strengths that complement traditional notions of female leadership, casting away outdated stereotypes and embracing a future full of aspirations for the powerful World Trade Organization.

By her leading roles at the WTO underscores, in many ways, the assertiveness and ability of what women could contribute in their professions to the development of society, especially in the spheres of global trade. Despite these attributes, Okonjo-Iweala as head of WTO highlights the fact that women possess the same abilities to perform with effectiveness in the field of economic and trade diplomacy.

As nominations for the next Director-General closed in early November, and Okonjo-Iweala was ultimately confirmed as the sole candidate, it offers practical grounds, at least, to celebrate her previous first-term satisfactory progress and milestone achievements on the global stage as an African, as a Nigerian citizen. Her typical African name alone resonates across the global landscape, not only portraying her distinguished career but also exposing diverse experience in fostering multifaceted trade partnerships and its associated challenges between the organization’s members in the world.

According to reports, Ambassador Petter Ølberg of Norway, Chair of the General Council, informed WTO members on 9th November that no further nominations for the position of Director-General had been received by the deadline of 8th November and that the incumbent Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, is therefore the only candidate for the role.

Director-General Okonjo-Iweala confirmed her willingness to serve a second four-year term. Okonjo-Iweala’s current term comes to an end on 31 August 2025, as the first woman, the first African is the seventh Director-General of the WTO. The WTO formally commenced the process of appointing its next Director-General, with members given until 8 November to submit nominations.

In July 2024, Okonjo-Iweala garnered unprecedented support to serve a second term at the 164 member states trade organization. In an official media release after the July 22 meeting, the WTO General Council indicated that fifty-eight (58) of the 164 member states of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) have voiced support for a proposal from the African Group backing incumbent Director-General, Okonjo-Iweala, to serve a second term.

As stipulated by the guidelines, the Director-General can serve two terms. Almost all members pointed to all the efforts and qualities of Okonjo-Iweala and her contributions to the organization which enhanced a lot of progress and development. Okonjo-Iweala, whose tenure as the DG due to end on 31st August 2025, revealed her plans to work with other members of the organization to restructure the global trade body.

“The African Group requests that the current Director-General make herself available to serve a second term, and has proposed that the process of reappointing the Director-General should be started as soon as possible,” according to the statement by the world trade body.

“Fifty-eight members, several speaking on behalf of groups of members, took the floor to comment and express their support for the African Group proposal. They called on DG Okonjo-Iweala to make her intentions regarding a second term known as soon as possible. Most of these members praised the DG’s hard work and her achievements during her first term,” it further added.

Okonjo-Iweala’s First-Term Achievements

(i) In the current emerging situation, the WTO’s task of changing the world’s trade is fraught with existing challenges and further hindered by geopolitics mostly by the key players. A classical example is the United States and China trade war, better considered as an economic conflict between two powers has persisted since January 2018 when Donald Trump, began setting tariffs and other trade barriers on China to force it to make changes to what the U.S. described as longstanding unfair trade practices and intellectual property theft. Washington has imposed tariffs on more than $360bn of Chinese goods, and China has retaliated with tariffs on more than $110bn of US products. WTO’s trade advocacy has had little influence in resolving this bilateral agreement initially signed by and binding on the United States and China.

(ii) As already know, the United States and Europe have a number of disagreements over economic relations between Russia and the former Soviet republics in the entire region. It was, however, expected that the trade organization work seriously and systematically to guarantee a rules-based international trading system. Despite the impasse in trade negotiations, and ways to modernize WTO rules and address the impending misunderstandings, much, unfortunately, remains to be reviewed. The European Union, for instance, continues to play a leading role in the WTO’s ongoing reform process, which was launched at the 12th WTO Ministerial Conference (MC12) in June 2022. Okonjo-Iweala has to address these persistent conflicts during her second term in office beginning in 2025.

(iii) The situation with the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN is not different from other regions. Okonjo-Iweala’s accession to the leadership of WTO four years ago was viewed as a turning point in the process of the Asian region’s integration, under the export-oriented growth regime, into the world’s trading landscape. Without mincing words here, it has to be noted that APEC and ASEAN play a major role in the world’s biggest trading bloc, and are at the centre of addressing emerging economic challenges facing the global trading system, to develop actionable policy recommendations, because more than 60% of the collective trade are targeted towards western and European markets.

(vi) On July 26, 2024, during the meeting of BRICS Economy and Foreign Trade Ministers in Moscow, representatives of BRICS economies agreed to coordinate their policies within the WTO. BRICS economies are increasingly moving towards coordinating their policies on the international stage, including in the World Trade Organization (WTO).

In an analytical report, Yaroslav Lissovolik, Founder of BRICS+ Analytics, believes that key priorities are necessary for the creation of a BRICS platform within the WTO include supporting the organization’s viability and effectiveness in resolving trade disputes (given the challenges faced in the operation of the WTO Dispute Settlement Body) as well as in countering rising protectionism. The creation of a common platform in the WTO should contribute to greater economic policy coordination for BRICS economies in the trade sphere and will also allow developing economies to play a greater role in the organization’s decision-making.

Advocating further for greater policy coordination and backing away from a long-standing call to action, which has been in process and discussions since 2017, “BRICS+ countries could … form alliances in other international organizations, including the WTO, where a BRICS+ group in negotiations could complement other South-South alliances.” Indeed, “after Russia’s WTO accession all BRICS members are now in the WTO and can create partnerships within the organization to defend national interests, advance sustainable development issues and counter the spectre of rising global protectionism.”

Another area of cooperation for BRICS in the WTO may be the provision of assistance to those BRICS core economies and partners of the grouping that have not yet secured full-fledged WTO membership. While until 2023 all BRICS core economies were members of the WTO, after the 2023-2024 core expansion two new BRICS members, namely Ethiopia and Iran, were still outside of the trade organization. A number of potential members of the BRICS partnership status, such as Belarus or Algeria, are also not yet full members of the WTO. In this respect, the WTO could target coordinated measures to support the accession process of those who have not yet secured WTO membership.

WTO and the African Union

WTO members and leading reputable investors have consistently been looking forward to exploring several opportunities in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), a policy signed by African countries to make the continent a single market. The AfCFTA, the world’s largest new free trade area, is the flagship of the African Union, and its significance cannot be overstated.  It certainly promises to increase intra-African trade through deeper levels of trade liberalization and enhanced regulatory harmonization and coordination. Moreover, it is expected to improve the competitiveness of African industries and enterprises through increased market access, the exploitation of economies of scale, and more effective resource allocation.

In fact, this should be one potential area of focus for Okonjo-Iweala as she heads for the second term unopposed. During her first term, she unreservedly expressed interest in dealing with these issues of strengthening partnerships and widening stronger trade relationships with Africa from the external players, and members of the WTO. There still exists controversy between the WTO and AU’s AfCFTA. A more consolidated approach to the continent’s trade policy may strengthen the role of the developing countries, especially the majority of those in Africa, in the WTO and advance the agenda of the Global South. With the emerging multipolar arrangement, it is necessary to facilitate external trade for Africa. This particularly has important positive implications for its inclusion into the world system, supports its economic power and ultimately raises its economic status closer to the Asian and Western world, and the G20.

The Group of Twenty (G20)

Over the past years, G20 economies, however, continued to introduce wide-ranging trade-facilitating measures, and increasing evidence points to enforcing unilateral trade policy decisions. Warning that these measures are creating uncertainty for the world economy, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala called on G20 governments to refrain from adopting new restrictions that could worsen the global economic outlook.

Potential investors have also indicated several times, trade facilitation and called for smooth pathways into the African continent, their involvement could be beneficial to them, including in sectors like pharmaceuticals, automobiles, agro-processing and financial technology. The G20 and Africa, regulated by the WTO policies could offer sustainable growth and symbolize an integral part and essential component in the emerging multipolar economic architecture.

Professional Experience Matches Responsibility?

In these changing times, Okonjo-Iweala’s official thoughtful testimony to pursue WTO’s Director-General responsibilities, as outlined prior to her engagement, has become uttermost necessary to review outstanding challenges and their consequences for the African continent’s development, and those in the Asia-Pacific region within the entire global trading system. Vying for Director-General, for the second term, should not be considered a ceremonial position, but entails promoting transformation, through increased market access, and increasing the relationship between Africa and Asia (South-South) in global trade, and the rest of the world.

She served two terms as Finance Minister of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (2003-2006 and 2011-2015) under the political leadership of President Olusegun Obasanjo and President Goodluck Jonathan, respectively. She also briefly acted as Foreign Minister in 2006, the first woman to hold both positions. The skilled negotiator had a 25-year career at the World Bank as a development economist, rising to the number two position of Managing Director of Operations.

Biographical records show she was born into a royal family in Delta State, her father Professor Chukwuka Okonjo became the Eze (King) from the Obahai Royal Family of Ogwashi-Ukwu. With high aspirations, Okonjo-Iweala studied at prestigious Harvard University, graduating magna cum laude with an AB in Economics in 1976. In 1981, she earned her PhD in Regional Economics and Development from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) with a thesis titled Credit Policy, rural financial markets, and Nigeria’s agricultural development. She received an International Fellowship from the American Association of University Women (AAUW) that supported her doctoral studies.

Selection Procedures

On 28-29 November, the General Council will convene a special meeting aimed at advancing the process for selecting the next Director-General. Chaired by Ambassador Petter Ølberg of Norway, the meeting follows the announcement made on 9th November that no candidates for the position of Director-General had emerged by the 8th November nomination deadline other than the incumbent Director-General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

In his communication to members, Ambassador Ølberg said that, based on his contacts with delegations, and as has been done in past instances where the incumbent Director-General was the only candidate, he intends to convene a special formal meeting of the General Council on 28th and 29th November.

The first day of the General Council meeting would allow members to hear a presentation from DG Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on her vision for the WTO, followed by a question-and-answer session. The second day could then provide an opportunity for members to make a decision on the appointment of the next Director-General. Okonjo-Iweala confirmed her willingness to serve a second four-year term in a letter on 16th September.

An Insight into WTO’s Future

With a solid education and broad experience, combined with her performance during the first term, 58 member-states of the WTO have already thrown their support behind her to head the Geneva-based body. The WTO is the only global international organization dealing with the rules of trade between nations. The goal is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible. It currently has 164 members, monitoring each other’s practices and regulations against a set of standard trading rules to improve transparency and avoid protectionism.

In addition, WTO works to build the trading capacity of developing and least-developed countries, helping them integrate and benefit from the multilateral trading system. This is an essential part of the work. The trading system has to be inclusive, with the benefits of trade reaching as many as possible around the world, particularly in the poorest countries.

The WTO provides its members with a tried and tested system of shared rules and principles to support economic cooperation and thereby boost growth, development and job creation around the world. It provides a forum for members to raise, discuss and potentially solve the complex problems that they face. The organization deals with the global rules of trade between nations. Its main function is to ensure that trade flows as smoothly, predictably and freely as possible. There is huge value in the system of the World Trade Organization.

Professor Maurice Okoli is a fellow at the Institute for African Studies and the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences. He is also a fellow and lecturer at the North-Eastern Federal University of Russia. He serves as an expert at the Roscongress Foundation and the Valdai Discussion Club.

As an academic researcher and economist with a keen interest in current geopolitical changes and the emerging world order, Maurice Okoli frequently contributes articles for publication in reputable media portals on different aspects of the interconnection between developing and developed countries, particularly in Asia, Africa, and Europe. With comments and suggestions, he can be reached via email: markolconsult (at) gmail (dot) com.

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Ledig at One: The Year We Turned Stablecoins Into Real Liquidity for the Real World

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Ledig

Ever tried sending a large amount of money into or out of certain markets and felt your stomach twist a bit? That was the feeling many companies carried long before Ledig existed. Delays. Guesswork. Phone calls that sounded unsure. People waiting on people, and no reliable derivatives hedging protocol to shield them from currency swings. It was messy.

That frustration is what pushed us to open Ledig to the world a year ago. We wanted a system built for big transfers. Not a few hundred dollars. Serious amounts. A hundred thousand. A million. Even more. And we wanted it to move in seconds, not a strange timeline that no one could explain.

So, we built a setup that lets companies bring in stablecoins and get local currency out quickly. We also kept the opposite direction just as clean. Local currency in, stablecoins out. Both ways needed to feel the same because business doesn’t move in only one direction. Some clients even switch between the two during the same week.

In the early days, people sent smaller amounts to test us. Fair enough. But once they saw a large payment settle almost instantly, confidence spread. This is how we crossed our first $100M. Most of that came from global companies working across Africa and other emerging markets. These firms care about stability, not buzzwords. They just want their money to land where it should.

A lot of the magic sits behind the scenes. Wallets. Local settlement tools. A solid FX engine that adjusts as needed. None of this appears on the surface. All a user sees is a simple dashboard or a set of API calls that get the job done. They don’t even need to think about crypto. The tech exists under the hood, doing the heavy lifting quietly.

But fast movement alone wasn’t enough.

Ledig derivatives hedging protocol

There was another problem staring companies in the face. Currency swings. And they hurt. Imagine finishing a project today and waiting ninety days to get paid in a currency that drops often. By the time the company receives the money, the value has fallen so much that the profit is almost gone. This is a real issue, and many firms have lived through that shock.

This is where our derivatives hedging protocol stepped in. It lets companies lock in their value early so they don’t get caught off guard later. The product ran off-chain at first and still passed $55M in activity. Now we’re taking the derivatives hedging protocol fully on-chain. We picked Base for this next step because it fits the type of stablecoins our settlement system relies on. It also gives companies a clean, transparent environment to execute derivatives hedging protocol strategies built for actual commercial needs rather than trading games.

It took time to get here. Our team is small, which surprised a lot of people, but that worked in our favour. We avoided noise. We focused on building pieces that work. Think of it like a set of tools. One tool converts stable to fiat. Another handles fiat to stable. Another manages FX. Another supports treasury. Another delivers hedging to protect value. Each tool works alone, but when a company puts them together, they get a full workbench that covers money movement and risk in one place.

We rarely talk about revenue publicly, but the business is in a good place. The real sign of health is that companies keep trusting us with large transactions. Not one-off tests. Proper flows. The kind that supports payrolls, suppliers, expansion, and daily operations. In markets where delays can break everything, this matters.

Looking ahead, our focus for 2026 is simple. Bring the derivatives hedging protocol on-chain at scale. Grow our liquidity pipeline so larger payments stay just as smooth as they are today. Strengthen our licensing and regulatory setup, so bigger institutions can work with us without extra steps. And continue tightening the entire system so companies entering emerging markets can do it with far less stress.

Ledig is one year old. The mission is still the same. Move large amounts of money fast. Protect companies from painful currency swings using a battle-tested derivatives hedging protocol. Build tools they can rely on without worrying about how the background tech works.

This is just the beginning.

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If You Understand Nigeria, You Fit Craze

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confusion nigeria

By Prince Charles Dickson PhD

There is a popular Nigerian lingo cum proverb that has graduated from street humour to philosophical thesis: “If dem explain Nigeria give you and you understand am, you fit craze.” It sounds funny. It is funny. But like most Nigerian jokes, it is also dangerously accurate.

Catherine’s story from Kubwa Road is the kind of thing that does not need embellishment. Nigeria already embellishes itself. Picture this: a pedestrian bridge built for pedestrians. A bridge whose sole job description in life is to allow human beings cross a deadly highway without dying. And yet, under this very bridge, pedestrians are crossing the road. Not illegally on their own this time, but with the active assistance of a uniformed Road Safety officer who stops traffic so that people can jaywalk under a bridge built to stop jaywalking.

At that point, sanity resigns.

You expect the officer to enforce the law: “Use the bridge.” Instead, he enforces survival: “Let nobody die today.” And therein lies the Nigerian paradox. The officer is not wicked. In fact, he is humane. He chooses immediate life over abstract order. But his humanity quietly murders the system. His kindness baptises lawlessness. His good intention tells the pedestrian: you are right; the bridge is optional.

Nigeria is full of such tragic kindness.

We build systems and then emotionally sabotage them. We complain about lack of infrastructure, but when infrastructure shows up, we treat it like an optional suggestion. Pedestrian bridges become decorative monuments. Traffic lights become Christmas decorations. Zebra crossings become modern art—beautiful, symbolic, and useless.

Ask the pedestrians why they won’t use the bridge and you’ll hear a sermon:

“It’s too stressful to climb.”

“It’s far from my bus stop.”

“My knee dey pain me.”

“I no get time.”

“Thieves dey up there.”

All valid explanations. None a justification. Because the same person that cannot climb a bridge will sprint across ten lanes of oncoming traffic with Olympic-level agility. Suddenly, arthritis respects urgency.

But Nigeria does not punish inconsistency; it rewards it.

So, the Road Safety officer becomes a moral hostage. Arrest the pedestrians and risk chaos, insults, possible mob action, and a viral video titled “FRSC wickedness.” Or stop cars, save lives, and quietly train people that rules are flexible when enough people ignore them.

Nigeria often chooses the short-term good that destroys the long-term future.

And that is why understanding Nigeria is a psychiatric risk.

This paradox does not stop at Kubwa Road. It is a national operating system.

We live in a country where a polite policeman shocks you. A truthful politician is treated like folklore—“what-God-cannot-do-does-exist.” A nurse or doctor going one year without strike becomes breaking news. Bandits negotiate peace deals with rifles slung over their shoulders, attend dialogue meetings fully armed, and sometimes do TikTok videos of ransoms like content creators.

Criminals have better PR than institutions.

In Nigeria, you bribe to get WAEC “special centre,” bribe to gain university admission, bribe to choose your state of origin for NYSC, and bribe to secure a job. Merit is shy. Connection is confident. Talent waits outside while mediocrity walks in through the back door shaking hands.

You even bribe to eat food at social events. Not metaphorically. Literally. You must “know somebody” to access rice and small chops at a wedding you were invited to. At burial grounds, you need connections to bury your dead with dignity. Even grief has gatekeepers.

We have normalised the absurd so thoroughly that questioning it feels rude.

And yet, the same Nigerians will shout political slogans with full lungs—“Tinubu! Tinubu!!”—without knowing the name of their councillor, councillor’s office, or councillor’s phone number. National politics is theatre; local governance is invisible. We debate presidency like Premier League fans but cannot locate the people controlling our drainage, primary schools, markets, and roads.

We scream about “bad leadership” in Abuja while ignoring the rot at the ward level where leadership is close enough to knock on your door.

Nigeria is a place where laws exist, but enforcement negotiates moods. Where rules are firm until they meet familiarity. Where morality is elastic and context-dependent. Where being honest is admirable but being foolish is unforgivable.

We admire sharpness more than integrity. We celebrate “sense” even when sense means cheating the system. If you obey the rules and suffer, you are naïve. If you break them and succeed, you are smart.

So, the Road Safety officer on Kubwa Road is not an anomaly. He is Nigeria distilled.

Nigeria teaches you to survive first and reform later—except later never comes.

We choose convenience over consistency. Emotion over institution. Today over tomorrow. Life over law, until life itself becomes cheap because law has been weakened.

This is how bridges become irrelevant. This is how systems decay. This is how exceptions swallow rules.

And then we wonder why nothing works.

The painful truth is this: Nigeria is not confusing because it lacks logic. It is confusing because it has too many competing logics. Survival logic. Moral logic. Emotional logic. Opportunistic logic. Religious logic. Tribal logic. Political logic. None fully dominant. All constantly clashing.

So, when someone says, “If dem explain Nigeria give you and you understand am, you fit craze,” what they really mean is this: Nigeria is not designed to be understood; it is designed to be endured.

To truly understand Nigeria is to accept contradictions without resolution. To watch bridges built and ignored. Laws written and suspended. Criminals empowered and victims lectured. To see good people make bad choices for good reasons that produce bad outcomes.

And maybe the real madness is not understanding Nigeria—but understanding it and still hoping it will magically fix itself without deliberate, painful, collective change.

Until then, pedestrians will continue crossing under bridges, officers will keep stopping traffic to save lives, systems will keep eroding gently, and we will keep laughing at our own tragedy—because sometimes, laughter is the only therapy left.

Nigeria no be joke.

But if you no laugh, you go cry—May Nigeria win.

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Post-Farouk Era: Will Dangote Refinery Maintain Its Momentum?

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dangote farouk ahmed

By Abba Dukawa

“For the marketers, I hope they lose even more. I’m not printing money; I’m also losing money. They want imports to continue, but I don’t think that is right. So I must have a strategy to survive because $20 billion of investment is too big to fail. We are in a situation where we will continue to play cat and mouse, and eventually, someone will give up—either we give up, or they will.” —Aliko Dangote

This statement reflects that while Dangote is incurring losses, he remains committed to his investment, determined to outlast competitors reliant on imports. He believes that persistence and strategy will eventually force them to concede before he does.

Aliko Dangote has faced unprecedented resistance in the petroleum sector, unlike in any of his other business ventures. His first attempt came on May 17, 2007, when the Obasanjo administration sold 51% of Port Harcourt Refinery to Bluestar Oil—a consortium including Dangote Oil, Zenon Oil, and Transcorp—for $561 million. NNPC staff strongly opposed the sale. The refinery was later reclaimed under President Yar’adua, a setback that provided Dangote a tough but invaluable lesson. Undeterred, he went on to build Africa’s largest refinery.

As a private investor, Dangote has delivered much-needed infrastructure to Nigeria’s oil-and-gas sector. Yet, his refinery faces regulatory hurdles from agency’s meant to promote efficiency and growth. Despite this monumental private investment in the nation’s downstream sector, powerful domestic and foreign oil interests may have influenced Farouk Ahmad, former NMDPRA Managing Director, to hinder the refinery’s operations.

The dispute dates back to July 2024, when the NMDPRA claimed that locally refined petroleum products including those from Dangote’s refinery were inferior to imported fuel.  Although the confrontation appeared to subside, the underlying rift persisted. Aliko Dangote is not one to speak often, but the pressure he is facing has compelled him to break his silence. He has begun to speak out about what he sees as a deliberate targeting of his investments, as his petroleum-refining venture continues to face repeated regulatory and institutional challenges.

The latest impasse began when Dangote accused the NMDPRA of issuing excessive import licenses for petroleum products, undermining local refining capacity and threatening national energy security. He alleged that the regulator allowed the importation of cheap fuel, including from Russia, which could cripple domestic refineries such as his 650,000‑barrel‑per‑day Lagos plant.

 The conflict intensified after Dangote publicly accused Farouk Ahmad, former head of NMDPRA, of living large on a civil servant’s salary. Dangote claimed Ahmad’s lifestyle was way too lavish, pointing out that four of his kids were in pricey Swiss schools. He took his grievance to the ICPC, alleging misconduct and abuse of office.

It’s striking how Nigerian office holders at every level have mastered the art of impunity. Even though Ahmad dismissed the accusations but the standoff prompting Ahmad’s resignation. But the bitter irony these “public servants” tasked with protecting citizens’ interests often face zero consequences for violating policies meant to safeguard the Nation and public interest.

The clash of titans lays bare deeper flaws in Nigeria’s petroleum governance. It shows how institutional weaknesses turn regulatory disputes into personal power plays. In a system with robust norms, such conflicts would be settled via clear rules, independent oversight, and transparent processes not media wars and public accusations.

Even before completion, the refinery’s operating license was denied. Farouk Ahmad claimed Dangote’s petrol was subpar, ordering tests that appeared aimed at public embarrassment. Dangote countered with independent public testing of his diesel, challenging the regulator’s claims.

He also invited Ahmad to verify the tests on-site, but the offer was declined. Moreover, NNPC initially refused to supply crude oil, forcing Dangote to source it from the United States a practice that continues.

President Tinubu later directed the NNPC to resume crude supplies and accept payment in naira, reportedly displeasing the state oil company. In addition to presidential directives, Farouk claimed Dangote was producing petrol beyond the approved quantity and insisted that crude oil be purchased exclusively in U.S. dollars a condition Dangote accepted.

From the public’s point of view, the Refinery is a game-changer for Nigeria, with the potential to end fuel imports and boost the economy. With a capacity of 650,000 barrels per day, it produces around 104 million liters of petroleum products daily, meeting 90% of Nigeria’s domestic demand and allowing exports to other West African countries.

The Dangote Refinery is poised to earn foreign exchange, stabilize fuel prices, and strengthen Nigeria’s energy security. However, the ongoing dispute surrounding the refinery underscores the challenges of aligning national interests with regulatory and institutional frameworks.

The Dangote Refinery’s growing dominance has sparked concerns among stakeholders like NUPENG and PENGASSAN, who fear it could lead to a private monopoly, stifling competition and harming smaller players. This concern stems from the refinery’s rejection of the traditional ₦5 million-per-truck levy on petroleum shipments.

However, Dangote has taken steps to address these concerns, reducing the minimum purchase requirement from 2 million liters to 250,000 liters, opening the market to smaller operators and strengthening distribution networks. The refinery has also purchased 2,000 CNG trucks to maintain operations, emphasizing its commitment to making energy affordable and accessible

Many are watching closely to see if Dangote’s actions are driven by a desire for transparency and fairness in Nigeria’s oil and gas sector or private business interests. Did Dangote genuinely want to fight the corruption going on in the sector?, Will Dangote refinery operate for the common good or seek market dominance? Did Farouk Ahmad act in the public interest or obstruct the refinery for hidden oil interests? Will the Dangote Refinery Maintain Its Momentum in the Post-Farouk Era?The dispute between Dangote and Farouk Ahmad remains shrouded in mystery, with the ICPC investigation likely to uncover the truth

To many, the government faces a delicate balancing act: protecting local refiners while ensuring fair competition. While some argue that Dangote’s success shouldn’t come at the expense of smaller players, others see it episodes like this reveal persistent contradictions: powerful interests, fragile institutions, and blurred lines between regulation and politics.The Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) promised a new era of clarity, efficiency, and accountability, but its implementation has been slow. The PIA’s success hinges on addressing these challenges.

What benefits one party can indeed threaten another. Despite entering the sector with good intentions, Dangote has faced relentless pushback, all eyes are on whether the refinery can sustain its momentum. Analysts and commentators are sharing their perspectives based on available data from relevant institutions. If anyone spreads false information, the truth will eventually come out

Dukawa is a journalist, public‑affairs analyst, and political commentator. He can be reached at [email protected]

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