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Stock Analysis: Zenith Bank Sets for Impressive FY-2017 Performance Amid Credit Loss Pressure

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By Cordros Research

Zenith Bank recorded a 44.57 percent growth in interest income in H1-17. On our 12.98 percent estimated assets yield, we believe the run rate will be sustained for the rest of the year, equating to 36.38 percent y/y growth in interest income to N524.46 billion.

The bank’s portfolio of investment securities, treasury bills, and quality loan books will be catalysts of the growth in assets yield. We also forecast NIR to surge by 51.16 percent to N186.60 billion, buoyed by strong trading income, revaluation gains, and marginal write-back of previous provisions.

Overall, we forecast a 39.97 percent growth in gross earnings to N711.06 billion in 2017F.

That said, PBT and PAT growth will be muted, owing to the impact of the elevated cost of refinancing maturing FCY obligations, higher impairment provisioning on transportation (specifically the aviation sector), communication and general commerce exposure, and a surge in total operating expenses (opex).

In a bid to meet maturing FCY obligations during the year, Zenith Bank issued the second tranche of its $1 billion Global Medium-Term Note Programme established in 2014. The programme was completed in May and the bank successfully raised $500 million (at a coupon rate of 7.375 percent, a 113bps premium over the first tranche).

The bank’s balance sheet as at H1-17 ending reveals that FCY borrowings worth $593.80 million (KEXIM $16.44 million, ABSA Bank $151 million, JP Morgan $75.05 million, Standard Bank $273.83 million, First Rand Bank $6.52 million, Citi Global Markets $51.96 million, and BACA $18 million) are due for maturity between May and October 2017.

We believe both the Eurobond and the newly secured borrowings during the year (SMBCE $49.75 million and AFC $181.9 million) came at higher cost relative to the maturing loans (mostly concessional borrowings) having estimated weighted average rate of 5.15 percent.

Accordingly, and given the continued tight domestic interest rate environment, we expect cost of funds to expand 125 bps y/y to 5.40 percent in 2017F – translating to interest expense of N235.88 billion.

However, we expect the stronger expansion in asset yields will offset the growth in funding cost, thus, we forecast an uptick in net-interest margin by 25 bps to 7.65 percent.

In H1-17, Zenith Bank made a 30 percent provision on its exposure to 9 Mobile (formerly Etisalat Nigeria) which resulted in a surge in credit loss provision (COR rose to 3.6 percent, from 1.3 percent in Q1-17 and H1-16) to N42.40 billion. Though we acknowledge the fact that a haircut is eminent on the syndicated exposure to 9Mobile, it is our understanding that most of the provisions booked in H1-17 by Zenith Bank was on its bilateral loan to the telco and not entirely on its share as a part of the syndicate.

Despite the bank restructuring 11.8 percent of its gross loan in H1-17(with oil & gas exposure representing 10.1 percent of the restructured exposure) as well as declassified some power exposure (down to 1.0 percent from 43.0 percent in FY-16), NPL still rose to 4.3 percent (N99.19 billion) from 3.0 percent (N71.37 billion) in FY-16, as the bank classified 37.6 percent (vs. 1.5 percent in FY-16) and 27.4 percent (vs. 18.5 percent in FY-16) of its transportation and general commerce exposure as NPL.

Overall, for 2017F, we estimate Zenith Bank’s NPL to increase to 4.50 percent, from 3.00 percent in FY-16 and 4.30 percent in H1-17, and cost of risks to rise to 2.68 percent, translating to a credit loss provision of N77.13 billion in 2017F.

We estimate opex to rise 29.63 percent y/y to N226.24 billion in 2017F (driven largely by higher regulatory levies on operating expenses) – translating to a 415 bps y/y expansion in CIR to 56.84 percent and growth in operational leverage to 4.5x (from 4.0x in FY-16).

Accordingly, we expect the impact of the increase in opex to limit the trickling down effect of the rise in gross earnings – we estimate PBT and PAT to rise 9.61 percent and 8.28 percent to N171.81 billion and N140.38 billion, respectively.

While acknowledging the impressive performance across income lines in H1-17, which resulted in an upward revision in earnings for the year, we believe the revaluation-bloated growth in NIR will taper in 2018, and factoring in the impact of the adoption of IFRS 9 from 2018 (with management guiding to a 20 percent impact on credit loss provision and 1 percent drop in CAR), we now expect PAT to grow lower than previously estimated over 2018F-2019F.

Hence, we revise our target price on the stock downward to N27.18 (Previous: N30.63), translating to 13.26 percent upside from current price of 24.00 (as at 21/08/2017).

Zenith Bank is currently trading at 2017F P/BVPS of 1.0x (above peer average of 0.9x and below the 5-year average of 1.1x) and P/E of 5.6x (above peer average of 5.2x and below the 5-year average of 5.9x). HOLD.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Banking

Senate Seeks CBN’s Full Disclosure on Unremitted N1.44trn Surplus

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Senate has demanded detailed explanation from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) over the alleged non-remittance of N1.44 trillion in operating surplus.

The Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions, chaired by Mr Tokunbo Abiru, opened its statutory briefing with a firm call for transparency at the apex bank, noting that the Auditor-General’s query on the unremitted funds required a full, clear and documented response, insisting that public trust in monetary governance depended on strict accountability.

While acknowledging the CBN’s achievements in stabilising the foreign exchange market and reducing inflation, Mr Abiru underscored that such progress must be accompanied by institutional responsibility.

He stated the Senate expected the CBN to explain the circumstances surrounding the query, outline corrective steps taken and reveal safeguards against future lapses.

This came as the Governor of the central bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, appeared before the senate committee and offered an extensive review of economic conditions, asserting that Nigeria was experiencing renewed macroeconomic stability across major indicators.

Mr Cardoso attributed the progress to bold monetary reforms, foreign-exchange liberalisation and disciplined liquidity management implemented since mid-2025.

According to him, headline inflation had declined for seven consecutive months, from 34.6 per cent in November 2024 to 16.05 per cent in October 2025, marking the steepest and longest disinflation trend in over a decade.

Food inflation accruing to him also slowed to 13.12 per cent, supported by improved supply conditions and exchange-rate predictability.

The CBN governor described the foreign-exchange market as fundamentally transformed, adding that speculative attacks and arbitrage opportunities had largely disappeared.

According to him, the premium between the official and parallel markets had fallen to below two per cent, compared to over 60 per cent a year earlier. As of November 26, the naira traded at N1,442.92 per dollar at the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market, stronger than the N1,551 average recorded in the first half of 2025.

He also announced a sharp rise in external reserves to $46.7 billion, the highest in nearly seven years and sufficient to cover over ten months of imports.

Diaspora remittances, he noted, had tripled to about $600 million monthly, while foreign capital inflows reached $20.98 billion in the first ten months of 2025, 70 per cent higher than in 2024 and more than four times the 2023 figure.

Cardoso further confirmed that the CBN had fully cleared the $7 billion verified FX backlog, restoring investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.

On banking-sector stability, he reported that recapitalisation efforts were progressing smoothly. Twenty-seven banks had already raised new capital, with sixteen meeting or surpassing the new regulatory thresholds ahead of the March 31, 2026 deadline, highlighting improvements in ATM cash availability, digital-payments oversight and cybersecurity compliance.

Despite the positive indicators, the Senate sought clarity on several policy decisions.

Mr Abiru pressed for explanations on the sustained 45 per cent Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR), the 75 per cent CRR applied to non-Treasury Single Account public-sector deposits, FX forward settlements, mutilated naira notes in circulation, excessive bank charges, failed electronic transactions and the compliance of CBN subsidiaries with parliamentary oversight.

He also requested an update on the activities of the Financial Services Regulatory Coordinating Committee, arguing that stronger inter-agency cooperation was necessary to maintain public confidence.

The session later moved into a closed-door meeting.

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Toxic Bank Assets: AMCON Repays CBN N3.6trn, Still Owes N3trn

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

About N3.6 trillion has been repaid to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) by the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) since its inception in 2010.

This information was revealed by the chief executive of AMCON, Mr Gbenga Alade, during a media parley to update the press on the activities of the agency.

Mr Alade said at the moment, the organisation still owes the central bank about N3 trillion for toxic assets of banks in the country.

He praised the organisation for its asset recovery drive, stressing that when compared with others across the world, Nigeria has done well.

“It is important to stress that the corporation has done tremendously well, especially when compared to other notable government-owned Asset Management Corporations around the world.

“Based on the balance at purchase, AMCON outperformed other Asset Management Corporations all over the world by achieving over 87 per cent in recoveries despite the unique challenges associated with debt recovery in Nigeria.

“The Malaysian Danaharta, which is adjudged one of the best performing Asset Management Corporation’s, only achieved 58 per cent. The Chinese Asset Management Corporation, despite its stricter laws, achieved just 33 per cent.

“Only the Korean Asset Management Corporation (KAMCO), South Korea, has achieved more recoveries than AMCON, with about 100 per cent. This was due to their brute force with which they chased the obligors.

“Despite KAMCO’s recovery records, the agency is still operational to date with slight realignments in its mandate.

“Other noted Asset Management Corporations that have transitioned into a perpetual institution of the various governments include, China Asset Management Company, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) USA, and KFW Germany.

“So, gentlemen, without sounding immodest, AMCON has done well, and we will not relent until all the outstanding debts are fully realized,” Mr Alade stated.

On the financial performance of AMCON, he said last year, the firm posted a revenue of N156.25 billion and operating expenses of N29.04 billion, while for the 2025 fiscal year should be a revenue of N215.15 billion and operating expenses of N29.06 billion.

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The Alternative Bank Opens Effurun Branch in Delta

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

One of the non-interest banks in Nigeria, The Alternative Bank (AltBank), has opened a new branch in Effurun, Delta State.

The new office will serve the Edo-Delta region and provide purposeful banking and real financial empowerment for individuals, entrepreneurs, and businesses, a statement from the firm stated.

The lender disclosed that the Effurun branch is a bold move in its mission to reshape banking in Nigeria.

The launch was graced by key dignitaries, including the Ovie of Uvwie Kingdom, Emmanuel Ekemejewa Sideso Abe I; the Chairman of Uvwie Local Government, Anthony O. Ofoni, represented his vice, Andrew Agagbo; and the Special Adviser to the Governor of Delta State on Community Development, Mr Ernest Airoboyi; amongst others.

The Divisional Head for South at The Alternative Bank, Mr Chukwuemeka Agada, emphasised the institution’s commitment to Warri and its surrounding communities.

“By establishing a presence here, we are initiating a transformation in the way banking serves the people of Delta. Our purpose-driven approach ensures that customers’ financial goals are not just met but exceeded,” he stated.

“This branch represents our pledge to empower Warri’s dynamic businesses and families, providing them with the tools to grow without compromise,” Mr Agada added.

“We understand the heartbeat of this community, and we are excited to integrate our bank into the fabric of this dynamic region,” he stated further.

On his part, the representative of the Ovie, Mr Samuel Eshenake, challenged the bank to facilitate development and employment within the Effurun community.

The Regional Head for Edo/Delta at The Alternative Bank, Mr Akanni Owolabi, embraced this challenge, pledging that the bank will work sustainably to drive local commerce.

“At The Alternative Bank, we are committed to being an active partner in the development of Effurun. We see this branch as a catalyst for creating opportunities, driving employment, and supporting the growth of local businesses.

“Our mission is to empower this community, ensuring that every step forward is one of progress, prosperity, and shared success.”

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