By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria recorded the highest crude production in the month of September as its production jumped by more than 170,000 barrels per day, according to a survey by Reuters.
The Reuters survey aims to track supply to the market and is based on shipping data provided by external sources, Refinitiv Eikon flows data, information from tanker trackers such as Petro-Logistics and Kpler, and information provided by sources at oil companies, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and consultants.
The country, which produces around 1.6 million barrels per day, was scheduled to rise by roughly 17,000 barrels per day each month, in line with the OPEC+ alliance’s plans to gradually ease back on production cuts implemented in April 2020.
However, there were over 200,000 barrels per day higher after Forcados and other problems in August, Reuters cited a firm that tracks OPEC supply.
Nigerian output recovered from involuntary losses and the group’s top producers further eased supply curbs under a pact with its allies.
The Forcados terminal export outlet was under force majeure in August, limiting supply. Even so, Nigeria is pumping almost 100,000 barrels per day less than its OPEC target as under-investment restrains output.
The second-largest increase came from a top exporter, Saudi Arabia, which further raised supply as part of the September OPEC+ boost. Iraq, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates and Algeria made smaller increases.
They pumped 27.31 million barrels per day, the survey found, up 420,000 barrels per day from August’s revised estimate.
As a result, output has risen every month since June 2020, apart from in February.
Output declined or did not increase in Angola, Congo, Equatorial Guinea and Gabon, due to a lack of production capacity to add more supply.
Iran, which has managed to raise exports since the fourth quarter despite the US sanctions, posted slightly higher output under the month in review.
The country is exempt from OPEC supply curbs due to the sanctions, although a larger export recovery depends on progress in talks to revive its 2015 nuclear deal with world powers which are currently stalled.
Among the other two producers exempt from curbs, Libyan and Venezuelan output also slightly increased.
The OPEC+ agreement allows for a 400,000 barrels per day production increase in September from all members, of which 253,000 barrels per day is shared by the 10 OPEC members covered by the deal, OPEC figures seen by Reuters showed.
While the 10 OPEC members raised output by more than this in September, they are still pumping less than called for under the latest deal.
OPEC compliance with pledged cuts was 114 per cent versus 115 per cent in August, the survey found.
OPEC+ meets on Monday, October 4 to review its policy and is expected to re-confirm plans for the monthly increases.
