Economy
Nigeria’s Growth Prospects Attractive Despite Dollar Scarcity—Moody’s

By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A latest report by global ratings firm, Moody’s, has stressed that while subdued US dollar supply in the context of prolonged lower oil prices remains a key challenge for corporates in Nigeria, especially those companies constrained by foreign exchange restrictions on certain imports, growth prospects over the next three years are attractive.
This was revealed in a report published Wednesday on Moody’s website titled ‘Corporates — Nigeria: US Dollar Scarcity Remains Key Challenge to Improvement in the Corporate Sector’ and it is available on www.moodys.com.
Moody’s subscribers can access this report via the link at the end of this press release. The report is an update to the markets and does not constitute a rating action.
“Nigeria is still undergoing a severe economic realignment to adjust to lower oil prices and the knock-on effect on its US dollar oil exports, which have led to reduced US dollar supply and lower GDP growth,” said Aurélien Mali, a Moody’s Vice President and local market analyst for the Government of Nigeria.
“The naira’s depreciation by nearly 60% in June partially cleared accumulated US dollar demand and stabilised foreign currency reserves. However, access to US dollars through official channels remains challenging for some companies.” said Douglas Rowlings, a Moody’s Assistant Vice President and the report’s co-author.
Foreign capital inflows into Nigeria are unlikely to rebound strongly as the existence of a parallel market acts as a deterrent. Investors are hesitant to invest capital into Nigeria as long as there is uncertainty around the propensity for a further devaluation of the naira versus the US dollar.
Moody’s expects foreign investment inflows to continue to be constrained until the parallel market Naira per US dollar exchange rate moves closer to the official exchange rate.
The supply of US dollars will improve over time as real growth rates pick up, which will be supported by investment by multinational corporates wishing to further strengthen their domestic position in Nigeria or establish a presence in the country. This, in turn, should be underpinned by improving GDP growth.
The foreign exchange limitation continues to pose challenges for corporates’ day-to-day operations, capital expenditure (capex) and financing activities.
Corporates servicing US dollar debt commitments will continue to have priority access to US dollars but will need to issue requests at least three months in advance to be assured of requisite availability, while corporates requiring US dollars for their purposes, such as capex outside Nigeria, will continue to face difficulties in obtaining sufficient US dollars.
Another source of US dollars through a rebound in oil production could support the reserves in the future, but it is hypothetical at this stage. If such a development were to occur at the current exchange rate, it could balance supply and demand for US dollars in Nigeria.
This, in turn, would lead to the eclipsing of the parallel market, which would encourage net portfolio inflows and should ensure that the official US dollar supply meets the total demand from Nigeria’s economy.
Looking ahead, growth prospects remain attractive for corporates over the next three years.
Although Moody’s expects Nigerian consumers’ purchasing power to remain under pressure over the next 18 months, both domestic and foreign investment is expected to take advantage of Nigeria’s compelling economic fundamentals and are likely to rebound once the economy has fully stabilised.
Nigeria remains the largest economy in sub-Saharan Africa on a purchasing power parity basis, offering a sizeable market for corporates. A growing middle class – both in percentage and absolute terms – and increasing consumer wealth levels will continue to support higher levels of discretionary income expenditure.
The report is available to Moody’s subscribers at http://www.moodys.com/viewresearchdoc.aspx?docid=PBC_1044666
Economy
LCCI Raises Eyebrow Over N15.52trn Debt Servicing Plan in 2026 Budget
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has noted that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing in the 2026 budget remains a significant fiscal burden.
LCCI Director-General, Mrs Chinyere Almona, said this on Tuesday in Lagos via a statement in reaction to the nation’s 2026 budget of N58.18 trillion, hinging the success of the 2026 budget on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.
She noted that the budget was a timely shift from macroeconomic stabilisation to growth acceleration, reflecting growing confidence in the economy.
She lauded its emphasis on production-oriented spending, with capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion, representing 45 per cent of total outlays, and significantly outweighing non-debt recurrent expenditure of N15.25 trillion.
According to Mrs Almona, this composition supports infrastructure development, industrial expansion, and productivity growth.
However, she explained that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing underscored the need for stricter borrowing discipline, enhanced revenue efficiency, and expanded public-private partnerships to safeguard investments that promote growth.
She added that a further review of the 2026 budget revealed relatively optimistic macroeconomic assumptions that may pose fiscal risks.
“The oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, although lower than the $75.00 benchmark in the 2025 budget, appears optimistic when compared with the 2025 average price of about $69.60 per barrel and current prices around $60 per barrel.
“This raises downside risks to oil revenue, especially since 35.6 per cent of the total projected revenue is expected to come from oil receipts.
“Similarly, the oil production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day is significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.49 million barrels per day.
“Achieving this may be challenging without substantial improvements in security, infrastructure integrity, and sector investment,” she said.
Mrs Almona said the exchange rate assumption of N1,512 to the Dollar, compared with N1,500 in the 2025 budget and about N1,446 per Dollar at the end of November, suggests expectations of a mild depreciation.
She said while this may support Naira-denominated revenue, it also increases the cost of imports, debt servicing, and inflation management, with broader macroeconomic implications.
The LCCI DG added that the inflation projection of 16.5 per cent in 2026, up from 15.8 per cent in the 2025 budget and a current rate of about 14.45 per cent, appeared optimistic, particularly in a pre-election year.
She also expressed concern about Nigeria’s historically weak budget implementation capacity, likely to be further strained by the combined operation of multiple budget cycles within a single year.
Looking ahead, Mrs Almona identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and human capital development as key drivers of growth in 2026.
She said that unlocking these sectors would require decisive execution—scaling irrigation and agro-value chains, reducing power and logistics costs for manufacturers, and aligning education and skills development with private-sector needs.
The LCCI head stressed the need to resolve issues surrounding the Naira for crude, increase the supply of oil to local refineries to boost local refining capacity and conserve the substantial foreign exchange used for fuel imports.
“Overall, the 2026 Budget presents a credible opportunity for Nigeria to transition from recovery to expansion.
“Its success will depend less on the size of allocations and more on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.
Economy
Customs Street Chalks up 0.12% on Santa Claus Rally
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited witnessed Santa Claus rally on Wednesday after it closed higher by 0.12 per cent.
Strong demand for Nigerian stocks lifted the All-Share Index (ASI) by 185.70 points during the pre-Christmas trading session to 153,539.83 points from 153,354.13 points.
In the same vein, the market capitalisation expanded at midweek by N118 billion to N97.890 trillion from the preceding day’s N97.772 trillion.
Investor sentiment on Customs Street remained bullish after closing with 36 appreciating equities and 22 depreciating equities, indicating a positive market breadth index.
Guinness Nigeria chalked up 9.98 per cent to trade at N318.60, Austin Laz improved by 9.97 per cent to N3.20, International Breweries expanded by 9.85 per cent to N14.50, Transcorp Hotels rose by 9.83 per cent to N170.90, and Aluminium Extrusion grew by 9.73 per cent to N16.35.
On the flip side, Legend Internet lost 9.26 per cent to close at N4.90, AXA Mansard shrank by 7.14 per cent to N13.00, Jaiz Bank declined by 5.45 per cent to N4.51, MTN Nigeria weakened by 5.21 per cent to N504.00, and NEM Insurance crashed by 4.74 per cent to N24.10.
Yesterday, a total of 1.8 billion shares valued at N30.1 billion exchanged hands in 19,372 deals versus the 677.4 billion shares worth N20.8 billion traded in 27,589 deals in the previous session, implying a slump in the number of deals by 29.78 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 165.72 per cent and 44.71 per cent apiece.
Abbey Mortgage Bank was the most active equity for the day after it sold 1.1 billion units worth N7.1 billion, Sterling Holdings traded 127.1 million units valued at N895.9 million, Custodian Investment exchanged 115.0 million units for N4.5 billion, First Holdco transacted 40.9 million units valued at N2.2 billion, and Access Holdings traded 38.2 million units worth N783.3 million.
Economy
Yuletide: Rite Foods Reiterates Commitment to Quality, Innovation
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigerian food and beverage company, Rite Foods Limited, has extended warm Yuletide greetings to Nigerians as families and communities worldwide come together to celebrate the Christmas season and usher in a new year filled with hope and renewed possibilities.
In a statement, Rite Foods encouraged consumers to savour these special occasions with its wide range of quality brands, including the 13 variants of Bigi Carbonated Soft Drinks, premium Bigi Table Water, Sosa Fruit Drink in its refreshing flavours, the Fearless Energy Drink, and its tasty sausage rolls — all produced in a world-class facility with modern technology and global best practices.
Speaking on the season, the Managing Director of Rite Foods Limited, Mr Seleem Adegunwa, said the company remains deeply committed to enriching the lives of consumers beyond refreshment. According to him, the Yuletide period underscores the values of generosity, unity, and gratitude, which resonate strongly with the company’s philosophy.
“Christmas is a season that reminds us of the importance of giving, togetherness, and gratitude. At Rite Foods, we are thankful for the continued trust of Nigerians in our brands. This season strengthens our resolve to consistently deliver quality products that bring joy to everyday moments while contributing positively to society,” Mr Adegunwa stated.
He noted that the company’s steady progress in brand acceptance, operational excellence, and responsible business practices reflects a culture of continuous improvement, innovation, and responsiveness to consumer needs. These efforts, he said, have further strengthened Rite Foods’ position as a proudly Nigerian brand with growing relevance and impact across the country.
Mr Adegunwa reaffirmed that Rite Foods will continue to invest in research and development, efficient production processes, and initiatives that support communities, while maintaining quality standards across its product portfolio.
“As the year comes to a close, Rite Foods Limited wishes Nigerians a joyful Christmas celebration and a prosperous New Year filled with peace, progress, and shared success.”
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