Economy
Nigeria’s Non-Oil Economy Records Slight Growth
**As FG Policies Sustain Rising GDP Figures In Agric, Solid Minerals Sectors
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Third Quarter GDP figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed a consistent growth in Agric and Solid Mineral sectors, indicating the success of the Buhari administration’s economic policies even though overall economy is still in recession.
The over-riding impact of the oil and gas sector, where vandalism and sabotage of critical installations negatively affected production output, explains the persistence of the recession, as the non-oil economy posted a very slight growth.
However, efforts to resolve the Niger Delta situation are continuing as the Federal Government has opened several channels of communication with all relevant groups in the Niger Delta.
Also, urgent fiscal and monetary measures to spur the economy back to overall positive territory are certainly in the offing including those targeting manufacturing.
According to Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, Dr Adeyemi Dipeolu on the latest NBS reports, “The third quarter results just released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that the Nigerian economy is still in recession.
“Growth in Gross Domestic Product fell by -2.24% in the third quarter as compared to the decline of -2.07 percent experienced in the second quarter.
“The slight deterioration in national economic performance owes largely to the continued poor performance of the oil and gas sector which worsened to -22.01% in the third quarter as compared to -17.48% in the second quarter of 2016. The immediate cause of this, as is now generally recognised, is the steep decline in oil and gas production in the third quarter of 2016 due to acts of vandalism and sabotage of oil export facilities.”
He said remote causes include the continued outsized influence of the oil and gas sector on the rest of the economy as typified by its contribution to government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, which continue to be important motors of economic activity.
According to him, due to time lags, it is still too early for policy interventions of the Federal Government to begin to impact fully on economic activity.
There are however some ‘green shoots’ of economic recovery beginning to emerge.
To start with, on-going consultations to bring lasting peace to the Niger Delta have enabled an increase in oil and gas production which if sustained at current prices, will bring a measure of relief to the economy.
Other key sectors of the economy showed encouraging signs of improvement.
The growth in the non-oil economy although still weak at 0.03% showed a return to positive territory after two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This was partly due to the continued good performance of agriculture and the solid minerals, two sectors prioritised by the Federal Government.
Agriculture grew by 4.54% in the quarter under consideration of which growth in crop production at nearly 5% was at its highest since the first quarter of 2014. Growth in the solid mineral sector averaged about 7%.
The financial sector rebounded quite strongly in the period under review growing by 2.85% from a negative growth of -13.24% in the second quarter. The recently approved first tranche of $600m to be borrowed from the African Development Bank will also provide some relief in budgetary terms and supplement capital inflows. Indeed, there was a slight uptick of capital inflows into the economy in the third quarter of 2016. Overall capital inflows in the third quarter of 2016 increased by 74.84% over the second quarter.
The performance of the manufacturing sector continued to be of concern given its key role in value addition and job creation in the economy. It is expected however that with greater local sourcing of raw materials, expected improvements in infrastructure, especially power and reductions in the cost of doing business, this sector will soon experience a sustained improvement in its contribution to the national economy.
Similarly, while inflation is still high at 18.3% on a year-on-year basis it has begun to level out on a month-on-month basis and should enable the deployment of more policy tools to support growth and employment. Indeed, growth of headline inflation slowed down appreciably from 13.8% in May to as low as 1.70% in September.
The year to date growth is about -1.58% and is set to improve given some of the points mentioned earlier especially regarding agriculture, oil and gas, and power supply. In addition, there have also been reductions in the rate of contraction of household and government consumption expenditure. Household consumption expenditure fell for instance by -3.25% in the third quarter of 2016 as compared to -6.0% recorded in the second quarter.
The ratio of investment to GDP also showed a notable improvement rising by 7.6% in the third quarter of 2016 as compared to a contraction of -7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015.
The Strategic Implementation Plan for the implementation of the 2016 Budget of Change prioritised capital expenditures for power, roads and rail as well as social investments. In addition to creating jobs and promoting social inclusion, these expenditures will also provide a stimulus by putting money in the hands of people. The usual economic activity that takes place in the Yuletide season will also likely have a positive impact on the wholesale and retail trade sector.
Overall therefore, it is expected that these factors which will be underpinned by the policies to be unveiled in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, ERGP, to be adopted before the end of the year, will lend further momentum to on-going efforts to revitalise and reposition the economy.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
African business mogul, Mr Aliko Dangote, has offered some East African countries a combined 30 per cent equity stake in his proposed oil refinery in Kenya, potentially giving regional investors access to about $1.5 billion worth of the project.
Mr David Ndii, economic adviser to Kenyan President William Ruto, disclosed this on Thursday at a capital markets forum in Nairobi.
Mr Ndii said Kenya would take a 10 per cent stake in the proposed refinery, valued at about $500 million, while Ethiopia and Rwanda had also expressed interest in participating in the project.
“The total for the region is about $1.5 billion,” Mr Ndii said, adding that Mr Dangote was prepared to support the project if some participating countries were unable to commit as crude off-takers.
The proposed refinery is expected to be developed in Lamu, a coastal town in southeastern Kenya, after Dangote initially proposed building the facility in Tanga, Tanzania.
Business Post had reported that the decision to relocate the project to Kenya was based on commercial and technical considerations.
The planned refinery would mark an expansion of Dangote’s refining operations beyond Nigeria and provide East African countries with direct equity participation in a major energy infrastructure project, alongside potential access to refined petroleum products.
The project was initially announced for Tanzania, where Dangote had proposed building a refinery in Tanga similar to his 700,000-barrel-per-day facility in Lagos.
Mr Dangote announced the Tanzania plan during a panel session at the Africa Finance Corporation summit in Nairobi, where he appeared alongside President Ruto and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni.
The project was subsequently shifted from Tanga to Lamu, with Dangote citing commercial and technical considerations for the change. Also, the Tanzanian government said it wasn’t consulted before the decision was announced.
The anticipated refinery and associated infrastructure on Kenya’s coast could cost about $17 billion and take approximately five years to complete.
The proposed 30 per cent regional stake is expected to provide East African investors with significant participation in the development of the refinery while broadening Dangote’s refining footprint across the continent. It will also help shield against shocks like the disruptions in the Middle East.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Civic-tech organisation, BudgIT, has called on the federal government to urgently address persistent weaknesses in budget execution, public auditing and procurement disclosure ahead of the 2027 budget cycle.
BudgIT, in a reaction to the United States Department of State’s 2026 Fiscal Transparency Report, said the assessment exposed significant gaps in Nigeria’s management and disclosure of public finances and should serve as a catalyst for comprehensive reforms ahead of the 2027 budget cycle.
The American report, which assessed Nigeria’s fiscal transparency practices between January 1 and December 31, 2025, placed the country among 67 of the 140 governments and entities reviewed that failed to meet minimum fiscal transparency requirements. Of the 67 governments that failed to meet the requirements, only 14 were assessed to have made significant progress in addressing identified deficiencies. Nigeria was not among those countries.
BudgIT said although the Fiscal Transparency Report focused specifically on fiscal disclosure and should not be regarded as a comprehensive assessment of all public financial management reforms being undertaken in Nigeria, its findings raised serious concerns about the credibility and accessibility of government financial information.
According to the organisation, the assessment reinforced longstanding concerns surrounding the quality of budget implementation reports, the independence and effectiveness of Nigeria’s audit institutions and the availability of public procurement information.
BudgIT said these shortcomings went beyond technical issues because they directly affected citizens’ ability to understand how government raises, allocates and spends public resources.
One of the major concerns identified in the US assessment was the inability of Nigeria’s budget documents to provide a substantially complete picture of government revenues and expenditures.
The report also found that actual government revenues and expenditures did not reasonably correspond with the enacted budget, raising questions about the credibility of the budget as a framework for fiscal planning and accountability.
BudgIT argued that a budget should not merely be an annual statement of government intentions but should provide a credible framework through which government communicates its fiscal priorities and commits public resources.
The organisation expressed particular concern that, despite the federal government’s continued publication of budget documents, actual budget implementation reporting remains inadequate.
BudgIT noted that publishing approved budget figures was not enough, stressing that the government must provide timely, consolidated and comprehensive information on actual revenue collection and expenditure.
It also pointed to Nigeria’s adoption of the International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS) since 2016, arguing that the principles of transparency and accountability embedded in internationally accepted public-sector financial reporting should be reflected in the quality, timeliness and completeness of Nigeria’s fiscal reports.
The organisation also highlighted weaknesses in the country’s audit architecture. The US assessment found that the Office of the Auditor-General for the Federation does not meet international standards of independence and has not published substantive audit reports as required.
BudgIT said an effective supreme audit institution is essential to ensuring accountability because it independently assesses how public resources have been utilised and whether government spending complies with approved appropriations and applicable laws.
It warned that without adequate institutional independence and the timely publication of audit findings, the National Assembly, civil society organisations and citizens would be deprived of an important mechanism for scrutinising public expenditure.
BudgIT therefore called for the completion of long-overdue reforms to Nigeria’s audit framework, stressing that the continued reliance on an outdated legal framework for public auditing constrains the Auditor-General’s ability to operate with the independence, authority and institutional capacity required in a modern public financial management system.
The US report also found that accessible information on public procurement contracts was not sufficiently available to the public.
BudgIT said citizens should be able to follow the procurement process from the publication of procurement opportunities through bidding, contract award, execution and completion.
Commenting on the report, BudgIT’s Head of Research and Policy Advisory, Mrs Adejoke Akinbode, said the federal government should use Nigeria’s second consecutive failure to meet the US minimum fiscal transparency requirements as an opportunity to undertake a comprehensive review of the country’s fiscal disclosure architecture ahead of the 2027 budget cycle.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc again pulled down the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Thursday, August 20, by 1.11 per cent.
The securities depository company further lost N5.93 during the trading session to close at N82.20 per share versus the midweek closing price of N88.12 per share.
As a result, the NASD Security Index (NSI) slid by 48.25 points to 4,284.84 points from 4,333.09 points, and trimmed the bourse’s market capitalisation by N28.96 billion to N2.571 trillion from N2.60 trillion.
During the trading day, the price of Afriland Properties Plc went up by 50 Kobo to N20.50 per unit from N20.00 per unit.
Yesterday, the volume of securities transacted by investors slumped by 85.1 per cent to 112,218 units from 747,429 units, the value of securities fell by 95.2 per cent to 4.6 million from 9.4 million, and the number of deals decreased by 40.5 per cent to 25 deals from 42 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 79.9 million units worth N5.8 billion.
GNI Plc also finished the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units transacted for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.
