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Okomu Oil Palm Plc: Healthy Fundamentals; Neutral Rating Maintained

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Okomu Oil’s Q3 2016 results came in stronger than we expected. The variance versus our estimates was due to sales and total costs (cogs+opex) surprising positively.

We have tried to reflect the surprises in our forecasts. As such, we increased our earnings estimates by 23.5% on average over the 2016-17E period. Consequently, we also increased our price target by 16% to N44.7.

Okomu shares have gained 40.2% this year and have significantly outperformed the broad index which has shed -10.6%.

The shares are trading on 2016E P/E of 9.4x (vs an average of c.30x for the consumer goods names under our coverage) for average EPS growth of 8.1% y/y over the 2016-18E period.

From current levels, the shares show a modest upside potential of 5.3%. We are retaining our neutral rating on the stock.

Strong fundamentals; palm oil in the front seat

Okomu’s Q3 numbers were boosted by its palm oil business which recorded sales growth of 27% y/y versus 5% y/y growth for the rubber segment. We believe the strong sales growth was driven more by pricing than volumes.

The higher prices are a reflection of lower supply arising from the CBN’s restriction of foreign exchange to palm oil importers (Okomu is a domestic producer).

In addition, due to the depreciation of the currency, imports have become more expensive. We still find the company’s fundamentals strong.

The government continues to try to shift attention away from oil and to non-oil of which the agriculture sector is expected to be a major beneficiary as well as a driver of economic growth. For FY 2016E, we see sales growing by 35% y/y and expect PBT to double y/y to N5.8bn.

Q3 2016 PBT and PAT up markedly y/y

Okomu’s Q3 2016 results showed sales growth of 22% y/y to N3.4bn. PBT and PAT advanced by wider margins of 188% y/y and 60% y/y to N1.2bn and N581m respectively. The strong sales growth was mainly responsible for the growth in earnings.

A -16% y/y decline in operating expenses also helped. Gross margin and net finance costs were flattish during the quarter. Sequentially, sales were down by -20% q/q which we attribute to seasonality.

Q2 is usually Okomu’s strongest quarter. PBT and PAT fell by 48% q/q and 71% q/q respectively, owing to a 10% increase in total costs (cogs + opex) and a 39% q/q increase in net finance costs.

Culled from Proshare.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

NASD OTC Exchange Gains N26.99bn as Investors Drive 1.04% Rally

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange jumped 1.04 per cent on Wednesday, June 17, with the market capitalisation adding N26.99 billion to settle at N2.619 trillion compared with the previous session’s N2.592 trillion, and the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) rising by 45.1 points to close at 4,378.45 points, in contrast to the preceding day’s 4,333.35 points.

The rally was driven by the gains reported by two securities, which outweighed the losses posted by three securities, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which dipped by N1.95 to N178.19 per unit from N180.14 per unit. Geo-Fluids Plc lost 19 Kobo to close at N2.61 per share compared with Tuesday’s closing price of N2.80 per share, and Food Concepts Plc slid by 1 Kobo to N1.77 per unit from N1.78 per unit.

On the flip side, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc recorded a N6.33 appreciation to trade at N86.57 per share versus the previous day’s N80.24 per share, and Light House Financial Services Plc grew by 10 Kobo to N1.13 per unit from the N1.03 per unit it closed a day earlier.

In the midweek session, the value of stocks traded by investors surged by 181.0 per cent to N128.3 million from the preceding session’s N45.6 million, the volume of securities increased by 305.6 per cent to 2.8 million units from Tuesday’s 688,290 units, and the number of deals executed jumped by 6.5 per cent to 33 deals from 31 deals.

At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 67.3 million units exchanged for N4.6 billion.

GNI Plc also ended as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.

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Economy

Ayobo-Ipaja LCDA Explores Commercial Ostrich, Crocodile Farming

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By Dipo Olowookere

As part of moves to boost its internally generated revenue (IGR) and increase its streams of income, Ayobo-Ipaja Local Council Development Area (LCDA) is considering commercial ostrich and crocodile farming.

The council recently held a sensitisation programme, where agribusiness experts engaged stakeholders, including residents and entrepreneurs, on the viability of this.

The programme provided participants with the knowledge on investment requirements, training opportunities, startup funding, and regulatory frameworks guiding ostrich and crocodile farming in Nigeria.

The chairman of Ayobo-Ipaja LCDA, Mr Lukmon Agbaje, commended the initiative, reiterating his administration’s commitment to promoting innovative agricultural practices as a pathway to sustainable development.

He described agriculture as a critical driver of economic transformation, stressing that modern farming has evolved into a profitable business venture with immense potential for youth empowerment and enterprise development.

Mr Agbaje further assured participants of the council’s readiness to partner with investors, agricultural institutions, and other relevant stakeholders to facilitate training, capacity building, and access to opportunities across the agricultural value chain.

On his part, the council’s Head of Department of Agriculture, Mr Wale Atepe, emphasised the growing market demand for products such as leather, meat, feathers, and other valuable by-products, adding that strategic investment in the sector could unlock significant opportunities for employment, wealth creation, and export earnings.

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Economy

Naira Tumbles to N1,360/$1 at Official Market

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira depreciated against the United States Dollar by 0.21 per cent or N2.89 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Wednesday, June 17, to N1,360.07/$1 from Tuesday’s closing rate of N1,357.18/$1.

In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira weakened against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session by N4.42 to trade at N1,824.81/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,820.39/£1, and lost N4.19 on the Euro to sell at N1,577.96/€1 compared with the previous day’s N1,573.79/€1.

However, at the GTBank segment, the local currency gained N1 against the greenback yesterday to exchange at N1,372/$1 versus N1,373/$1, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,385/$1 at midweek.

The Naira’s performance comes amid tight inflows from exporters, non-bank corporates, and foreign investors, evidenced by the slow movement of the country’s gross external reserves level of $50.505 billion, despite muted inflows from oil sales after a recent drop in prices.

There have been reduced FX market interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as it maintains its stance to keep the local unit stable enough to retain foreign investments.

The Nigerian government also dismissed a report suggesting that it was considering new taxes on telecommunications services and petroleum products, which would have spooked investors.

The federal government said that the reports misrepresented recommendations contained in the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Article IV Consultation Report on Nigeria, explaining that the recommendations were advisory and do not constitute government policy or binding obligations on Nigeria.

In the cryptocurrency market, prices were negative as traders and investors shrugged off a signed Iran peace deal that lifted stocks, after the Federal Reserve held interest rates but made clear it is more worried about inflation than growth.

Under the new Chair, Mr Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at 3.5 per cent to 3.75 per cent,  in line with expectations, but its updated projections pointed to higher inflation and a slower pace of future rate cuts, and some officials floated the possibility that rates may still need to rise.

Cardano (ADA) slid 4.5 per cent to trade at $0.1731, Ripple (XRP) went down by 4.2 per cent to $1.16, Ethereum (ETH) shrank by 3.5 per cent to $1,727.55, Solana (SOL) lost 3.4 per cent to sell $71.05, Dogecoin (DOGE) also fell by 3.4 per cent to $0.0843, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 3.1 per cent to $587.53, and Bitcoin (BTC) crashed by 2.6 per cent to $63,892.28, while TRON (TRX) gained 0.7 per cent to finish at $0.3201, with the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closing flat at $1.00 each.

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