Economy
Nigeria’s Non-Oil Economy Records Slight Growth
**As FG Policies Sustain Rising GDP Figures In Agric, Solid Minerals Sectors
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Third Quarter GDP figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed a consistent growth in Agric and Solid Mineral sectors, indicating the success of the Buhari administration’s economic policies even though overall economy is still in recession.
The over-riding impact of the oil and gas sector, where vandalism and sabotage of critical installations negatively affected production output, explains the persistence of the recession, as the non-oil economy posted a very slight growth.
However, efforts to resolve the Niger Delta situation are continuing as the Federal Government has opened several channels of communication with all relevant groups in the Niger Delta.
Also, urgent fiscal and monetary measures to spur the economy back to overall positive territory are certainly in the offing including those targeting manufacturing.
According to Special Adviser to the President on Economic Matters, Dr Adeyemi Dipeolu on the latest NBS reports, “The third quarter results just released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that the Nigerian economy is still in recession.
“Growth in Gross Domestic Product fell by -2.24% in the third quarter as compared to the decline of -2.07 percent experienced in the second quarter.
“The slight deterioration in national economic performance owes largely to the continued poor performance of the oil and gas sector which worsened to -22.01% in the third quarter as compared to -17.48% in the second quarter of 2016. The immediate cause of this, as is now generally recognised, is the steep decline in oil and gas production in the third quarter of 2016 due to acts of vandalism and sabotage of oil export facilities.”
He said remote causes include the continued outsized influence of the oil and gas sector on the rest of the economy as typified by its contribution to government revenue and foreign exchange earnings, which continue to be important motors of economic activity.
According to him, due to time lags, it is still too early for policy interventions of the Federal Government to begin to impact fully on economic activity.
There are however some ‘green shoots’ of economic recovery beginning to emerge.
To start with, on-going consultations to bring lasting peace to the Niger Delta have enabled an increase in oil and gas production which if sustained at current prices, will bring a measure of relief to the economy.
Other key sectors of the economy showed encouraging signs of improvement.
The growth in the non-oil economy although still weak at 0.03% showed a return to positive territory after two consecutive quarters of negative growth. This was partly due to the continued good performance of agriculture and the solid minerals, two sectors prioritised by the Federal Government.
Agriculture grew by 4.54% in the quarter under consideration of which growth in crop production at nearly 5% was at its highest since the first quarter of 2014. Growth in the solid mineral sector averaged about 7%.
The financial sector rebounded quite strongly in the period under review growing by 2.85% from a negative growth of -13.24% in the second quarter. The recently approved first tranche of $600m to be borrowed from the African Development Bank will also provide some relief in budgetary terms and supplement capital inflows. Indeed, there was a slight uptick of capital inflows into the economy in the third quarter of 2016. Overall capital inflows in the third quarter of 2016 increased by 74.84% over the second quarter.
The performance of the manufacturing sector continued to be of concern given its key role in value addition and job creation in the economy. It is expected however that with greater local sourcing of raw materials, expected improvements in infrastructure, especially power and reductions in the cost of doing business, this sector will soon experience a sustained improvement in its contribution to the national economy.
Similarly, while inflation is still high at 18.3% on a year-on-year basis it has begun to level out on a month-on-month basis and should enable the deployment of more policy tools to support growth and employment. Indeed, growth of headline inflation slowed down appreciably from 13.8% in May to as low as 1.70% in September.
The year to date growth is about -1.58% and is set to improve given some of the points mentioned earlier especially regarding agriculture, oil and gas, and power supply. In addition, there have also been reductions in the rate of contraction of household and government consumption expenditure. Household consumption expenditure fell for instance by -3.25% in the third quarter of 2016 as compared to -6.0% recorded in the second quarter.
The ratio of investment to GDP also showed a notable improvement rising by 7.6% in the third quarter of 2016 as compared to a contraction of -7.4% in the fourth quarter of 2015.
The Strategic Implementation Plan for the implementation of the 2016 Budget of Change prioritised capital expenditures for power, roads and rail as well as social investments. In addition to creating jobs and promoting social inclusion, these expenditures will also provide a stimulus by putting money in the hands of people. The usual economic activity that takes place in the Yuletide season will also likely have a positive impact on the wholesale and retail trade sector.
Overall therefore, it is expected that these factors which will be underpinned by the policies to be unveiled in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan, ERGP, to be adopted before the end of the year, will lend further momentum to on-going efforts to revitalise and reposition the economy.”
By Dipo Olowookere
For the eighth straight session, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) closed lower, losing 0.32 per cent at the close of business on Thursday as a result of continued sell-offs.
Yesterday, the financial and energy sectors came under selling pressure as investors’ appetite for domestic equities waned, with attention turning to the 2027 presidential campaigns, which kicked off on Wednesday.
The energy index shed 2.49 per cent, the insurance sector depreciated by 0.79 per cent, and the banking segment declined by 0.41 per cent. But the consumer goods space gained 0.10 per cent, while the industrial goods counter closed flat.
When the market closed for the day, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 712.67 points to 240,037.80 points from 240,750.47 points, and the market capitalisation decreased by N439 billion to N154.978 trillion from N155.417 trillion.
International Energy Insurance slumped by 9.85 per cent to N4.30, Coronation Insurance dropped 9.84 per cent to trade at N2.20, Fortis Global slipped by 9.76 per cent to N1.85, AVA Capital crashed by 7.89 per cent to N7.00, and Zichis shrank by 7.36 per cent to N17.00.
On the other side, Haldane McCall rose by 9.38 per cent to N3.85, Trans-Nationwide Express jumped by 8.90 per cent to N3.06, McNichols appreciated by 8.33 per cent to N5.20, Cutix gained 2.56 per cent to close at N2.40, and Veritas Kapital expanded by 1.52 per cent to N1.34.
Business Post reports that Customs Street recorded 14 advancing stocks and 29 declining stocks, representing a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.
A total of 2.9 billion shares worth N34.0 billion were transacted in 34,725 deals during the session versus the 1.2 billion shares valued at N37.8 billion traded in 34,546 deals at midweek. This showed that the trading value moderated by 10.05 per cent, while the trading volume and number of deals increased by 141.67 per cent and 0.59 per cent apiece.
Fortis Global Insurance was on top of the activity chart yesterday, with a turnover of 2.6 billion equities valued at N5.2 billion. Sterling Holdings exchanged 28.1 million shares worth N211.4 million, Trans-Nationwide Express transacted 21.7 million stocks for N66.2 million, UBA sold 17.9 million equities worth N803.7 million, and First Holdco traded 15.7 million shares valued at N2.0 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil jumped more than 2 per cent on Thursday to its highest level in nearly a month, after US President Donald Trump warned of retaliation against nations supporting Iran.
Brent crude futures gained $2.16 or 2.4 per cent to trade at $93.78 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for September rose by $2 or 2.3 per cent to $87.83 a barrel.
President Trump has threatened sweeping economic measures against Iran, warning countries that provide Iran with “any type of lifeline” that they could face severe consequences.
The American President described the planned campaign as “economic warfare and isolation on an unprecedented scale,” as the US seeks to intensify pressure on Tehran nearly six months into the conflict.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump-led administration would impose what he called the “toughest sanctions in history” on Iran and urged China and other countries to cooperate with the campaign.
Mr Bessent said he would hold a press conference on Monday to provide details of the measures, which he said would complement the US blockade of Iran.
Concerns about stricter sanctions enforcement against Iran added to anxiety about the risk to supply in the Middle East.
The economic offensive comes as the war, which began on February 28 after the US and Israel launched military strikes on Iran, has killed thousands of people and severely disrupted energy supplies.
Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for global oil and gas shipments, and attacks on energy infrastructure across the Middle East have sharply reduced the flow of energy to international markets.
The latest US threats mark an escalation in the US’s economic pressure on Iran, with Trump also warning countries that continue to trade with or support Iran that they could face punitive measures. Iran has dismissed the campaign as “economic terrorism” and a continuation of failed US policies.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains far below pre-war levels, according to the latest shipping data. Prior to the Iran war, shipments equal to about one-fifth of global consumption moved through the waterway.
This week, the United Arab Emirates suspended all financial and economic transactions with Iran until further notice, highlighting the fraught ties between the major Gulf Arab oil producer and Iran. The war has also impacted the supply of refined fuels and drawn down inventories, with less crude available to refiners.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association (NECA) has called on state and local governments to account for the N10.4 trillion they received from resources generated following the removal of the petrol subsidy.
The Director-General of NECA, Mr Adewale-Smatt Oyerinde, made the call on Channels Television’s Sunrise Daily on Thursday morning, a day after the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, disclosed details of the financial impact of the federal government’s economic reforms.
Mr Oyedele had said the removal of the petrol subsidy and reforms to the foreign exchange market mobilised N15.8 trillion for the Federation between June 2023 and December 2025.
According to the minister, the federal government received N5.4 trillion of the amount, while N10.4 trillion was distributed to state and local governments through the Federation Account.
Reacting to the disclosure, Mr Oyerinde said the states and local governments should now provide details of how the funds they received were utilised.
He particularly called on state commissioners for finance to disclose the amounts their respective governments received and how the funds were spent.
“Absolutely. I think it should trickle down. The commissioners of finance in states, you come out and also say, this is how much we’ve received; this is how much we have spent,” he said on the television programme.
Mr Oyerinde compared the expected disclosure by governments to the financial reporting obligations of private businesses, where companies present audited accounts and performance reports to shareholders.
“We believe strongly that as private businesses, at the end of the year you audit your accounts, you present your scorecard to your shareholders to gauge what we have done. The Minister of Finance has led the way now, and the states also should follow,” he said.
The NECA director-general urged state governments to provide a breakdown of the funds received, the challenges encountered and how the money was deployed.
“And so this is how much we have received. These are the constraints we face, and this is how we have expended this amount. I think we should move progressively towards transparency in government,” he said.
Mr Oyerinde commended the Federal Government for publicly disclosing details of its finances, describing the presentation by the finance minister as a step towards greater transparency in public administration.
He said the level of detail provided by Mr Oyedele would enable citizens and other stakeholders to better scrutinise government spending and assess the impact of the reforms.
The NECA boss also said greater disclosure by the sub-national governments would allow citizens to engage state and local governments more constructively on the use of public funds.
“I also put citizens, and I must say this, citizens are also in a good position now to engage constructively, engage the state governments constructively, and also engage local governments constructively, because that is where development should actually start,” Mr Oyerinde said.
