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Fitch Affirms UBA at ‘B’ with Stable Outlook

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Fitch Ratings has affirmed United Bank for Africa Plc’s (UBA) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) at ‘B’. The Outlook is Stable. The bank’s Viability Rating (VR) has been affirmed at ‘b’ and its Support Rating at ‘5’. The National Ratings have also been affirmed. A full list of rating actions is at the end of this rating action commentary.

The bank’s IDRs are driven by its standalone creditworthiness, defined by the VR. The VR is constrained by Nigeria’s (B+/Negative) operating environment.

UBA is one of Nigeria’s largest banks, classified as domestically systemic by the regulator. It controls shares of loans and deposits in Nigeria of 7.5% and 9.5%, respectively. Its well-established franchise is a rating strength and internationalisation through expansion into 19 other sub-Saharan African countries adds to the franchise.

UBA’s earnings and profitability tend to be stable, which we view positively.

The bank reports a low impaired loans/gross loans ratio (around 4%), but loan loss cover at around 70% is on the low side compared with the average for large Nigerian banks (90%). UBA also has access to collateral. Corporate lending dominates the loan book, but much of it is collateralised. UBA’s exposure to the oil and gas sector represents 20% of total loans, lower than the 30% sector average but concentrations by single borrower can be high. This is particularly the case in some of the African subsidiaries.

UBA’s foreign currency liquidity position improved following the issue of a USD500 million senior medium-term bond on the international capital markets in June 2017. UBA’s local currency funding profile is a rating strength. The group is largely funded by historically stable deposits and UBA’s strategy is to continue to expand its low-cost retail deposit base. Retail deposits represent about a third of customer deposits, which is higher than average for rated peers. Local currency liquidity ratios are high.

UBA’s capital ratios are in line with other large Nigerian banks but the bank’s overall capitalisation still provides relatively narrow buffers and only limited loss-absorption capacity, in our view. This is because concentrations can be high, exposing the bank to the risk of unexpected losses.

UBA’s National Ratings reflect its creditworthiness relative to Nigeria’s best credit and to peers operating in Nigeria.

SUPPORT RATING AND SUPPORT RATING FLOOR

Fitch believes that sovereign support to Nigerian banks cannot be relied on given Nigeria’s weak ability to provide support, particularly in foreign currency. In addition, there are no clear messages from the authorities regarding their willingness to support the banking system. Therefore, the Support Rating Floor of all Nigerian banks is ‘No Floor’ and all Support Ratings are ‘5’. This reflects our view that senior creditors cannot rely on receiving full and timely extraordinary support from the Nigerian sovereign if any of the banks become non-viable.

SENIOR DEBT

Senior debt is rated at the same level as the bank’s Long-Term IDR because in our view, the likelihood of default on these notes reflects the likelihood of default of the bank. The Recovery Rating (RR) assigned to these notes is ‘RR4’, indicating average recovery prospects.

The bank’s IDRs, National Ratings and VR are primarily sensitive to either improvements or deterioration in asset quality and capital adequacy. Given the still fragile economy in Nigeria and credit weakness in many other sub-Saharan African countries, upgrade potential is considered limited at present.

The SR is potentially sensitive to any change in assumptions around the propensity or ability of the sovereign to provide timely support to the bank.

The senior debt is sensitive to a change in UBA’s Long-Term IDR.

The rating actions are as follows:

Long-Term IDR affirmed at ‘B’; Outlook Stable

Short-Term IDR affirmed at ‘B’

Viability Rating affirmed at ‘b’

National Long-Term Rating affirmed at A+(nga)’

Short-Term National Rating affirmed at ‘F1(nga)’

Support Rating affirmed at ‘5’

Support Rating Floor affirmed at ‘NF’

Long-term senior unsecured debt affirmed at ‘B’/RR4

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Banking

Removing Bottlenecks Boosting FX Inflows—Cardoso

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Foreign Exchange FX Inflows

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso, says removing identified bottlenecks is helping the country in terms of foreign exchange inflows.

He disclosed this at a meeting of the Nigerian government delegation led by the Minister of Finance and the Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun and international investors on the sidelines of the ongoing Spring Meetings of the IMF and World Bank in Washington D.C.

The central banker assured the global investment community that the apex bank will strengthen its processes to sustain gains from recent reforms and confidence in the economy.

Mr Cardoso stated that the “difficult reforms that have been undertaken have begun to bear fruit,” adding that  “the numbers speak for themselves”, indicating positive developments in the Nigerian economy.

He highlighted the significant progress made in the remittance space noting that initial scepticism was overcome.

He said monthly remittances increasing from approximately “$200 million plus  on a monthly basis to a peak of around $600 million by August [2024]”.

He said this was achieved by “understanding where the bottlenecks were and we  did everything to remove them” and by closing the gap on different exchange rates.

Mr Cardoso also explained that engaging with the diaspora community through roadshows also yielded positive responses.

“The CBN has also involved the banking system in these efforts, including targeted outreach to non-resident Nigerians,” he said.

Governor Cardoso stressed the importance of a competitive Naira, describing this as a game changer and a great transformative tool that has shifted how foreign direct investors view Nigeria, noting that investors are increasingly comfortable with the availability of a competitive currency, making business more attractive.

Speaking on the global economy and how developments in the oil market affects Nigeria, an exporter of crude oil, Mr Cardoso reassured that the impact of oil price fluctuations is “quite manageable”.

He also promised that the country will continue on bettering policies that attract investments into core sectors.

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Banking

N4.6trn of N5.0trn Currency in Circulation Outside Banking System—CBN

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has revealed in its latest data that the total currency in circulation in March 2025 stood at N5.00 trillion, of which about N4.6 trillion is outside the banking system, indicating that 91.9 per cent of all cash in the economy are not in the bank.

Business Post reports that in the same period of last year, the value of cash held outside the banks was N3.63 trillion from the N3.87 trillion in circulation.

Nigerians have continued to keep cash outside the banking system because of the harrowing experience of December 2022 and early 2023 due to the Naira redesigned policy of the CBN.

The policy caused cash crunch, triggering a series of violent protests across the country. It was believed that the central bank, under the then governor, Mr Godwin Emefiele, was to frustrate the president ambition of President Bola Tinubu.

The apex bank had said in a bid to help the government tackle insecurity in Nigeria, it was changing the outlook if the N200, N500, and N1,000 bank notes.

The idea was to phase out the old notes but this was frustrated as the state governors challenged this and got a judgement from the Supreme Court against the policy. Both the old and new bank notes are currently in use.

In the same report, the central bank also disclosed that the broad money supply in Nigeria increased by 24 per cent on a year-to-year basis to N114.2 trillion in March 2025 from the N92.19 trillion in March 2024, and on a month-on-month basis, it went up by 3.2 per cent from N110.71 trillion in February 2025.

The hike in money supply occurred despite the central bank raising the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to 50 per cent at its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, with the benchmark interest rate at 27.50 per cent.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) last Tuesday revealed that inflation rate for March 2025 surged to 24.23 per cent from 23.18 per cent in February 2025.

Back to the money supply hike, it was mainly influenced by a sharp 38.9 per cent rise in net foreign assets to N45.17 trillion, while the net domestic assets went down by 11.7 per cent to N69.05 trillion due to tighter liquidity within the domestic financial system.

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Union Bank Rewards Customers in Third Save and Win Palli Promo 4 Monthly Draw

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Six brand new motorcycles and cash prizes have been won by customers of Union Bank of Nigeria in the third monthly draw of the ongoing Save and Win Palli Promo 4.

The nationwide campaign was designed to reward both new and existing customers of the financial institution with cash prizes and other exciting gifts worth N131 million.

This initiative aims to support them in achieving their savings goals while getting rewarded at the same time.

To stand a chance to win, customers can continue to top up their savings in multiples of N10,000 or more and perform a minimum of five transactions a month to increase their chances of winning in the draws. This promo is open to new and existing savings and current account holders.

Prospective customers can download the UnionMobile app on their smartphones to open accounts or walk into any Union Bank branch.

Returning customers can call the 24-hour Contact Centre on 07007007000 or visit any Union Bank branch nationwide to reactivate dormant accounts.

At the recent hybrid draw, six lucky customers each won the brand new motorcycle, and 120 additional winners won cash prizes.

The live draws were transparently conducted at the lender’s Sabo, Yaba Branch in Lagos under the supervision of relevant regulatory institutions.

For integrity purposes, some of the winners were contacted to congratulate and remind them that the bank will never call to request or confirm their confidential banking details such as BVN, date of birth, pins, or passwords.

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