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Economy

2023 Economic Outlook For Nigeria

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Economic Outlook

By Emmanuel Otori

In conjunction with the IMF/World Bank annual meetings, forecasts released at the July World Economic Outlook in 2022 projected Nigeria’s inflation to fall to 17% and an increase in its Gross Domestic Product GDP by 3.4% in 2022 and 3.2% in 2023. Reprojected in October’s World Economic Outlook, Nigeria’s GDP is projected to drop to 3.2% in 2023, with a difference of 0.2% in the July 2022 projection. The IMF estimates that by 2023, Nigeria’s inflation will have decreased to 17% from a projected 19%.

According to the African Development Bank Group (AFDB), growth will slow, averaging 3.2% from 2022 to 2023, because of the continued low oil production and rising insecurity. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine, rising food, gas, and diesel costs, and continuous supply disruptions are all anticipated to play a part in keeping inflation high in 2022 at 16.9% and above pre-pandemic levels in 2023.

While oil exports are anticipated to slightly increase and capital inflows to rebound, an expected positive oil price shock on exports may be substantially outweighed by a poor output effect caused by lower oil production, which is fueled by inadequate infrastructure and increased insecurity.

The anticipated 0.1% of GDP marginal current account surplus in 2022 could turn into a 0.2% deficit in 2023. With greater revenue collection, the budget deficit will typically drop to 4.5% of GDP. Furthermore, it is predicted that by 2024, the government debt is expected to reach 40% of GDP due to new borrowing.

From the IMF’s Research Department, Daniel Leigh, the Divisional Chief indicated that the recent increase in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), as well as the global fall in the price of crude oil and food, are the foundations for the reduced inflation rate forecasts for Nigeria. However, the IMF’s Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, Director of Research, provided guidance to the CBN and its international counterparts on the selection of monetary policy instruments necessary to reduce inflation.

The IMF’s lower growth rate forecast for the global economy in 2023 was consistent with predictions for Nigeria’s GDP growth. Projections on the global economic growth for 2022 were retained at 3.2%, whereas they are projected to decrease to 2.7% in 2023. In a statement describing why it anticipates slower global growth, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided an explanation:

“The world economy continues to face steep challenges, shaped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, a cost-of-living crisis caused by persistent and broadening inflation pressures, and the slowdown in China…”

Curbing Economic Crisis

According to Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, fiscal policy should not conflict with the efforts of the monetary authorities because, otherwise, it will only prolong the existing inflation leading to a severe financial crisis. Fiscal policy should also focus on the most vulnerable groups for a short-term period. In addition, fiscal policy can aid economies in adjusting to more unpredictable situations by making investments in human capital, digitalization and green energy. Although with this in place, economies can withstand unexpected future crises, he expressed sadness that policies do not follow these concepts.

Emmanuel Otori has over 10 years of experience working with 100 start-ups and SMEs across Nigeria. He has worked on the Growth and Employment (GEM) Project of the World Bank, GiZ, and Consulted for businesses at the Abuja Enterprise Agency, Novustack, Splitspot and NITDA. He is the Chief Executive Officer at Abuja Data School.

Economy

No Discrepancies in Harmonised, Gazetted Tax Laws—Oyedele

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Taiwo Oyedele

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has said there are no discrepancies in the tax laws passed by the National Assembly and the gazetted versions made available to the public.

Last week, a member of the House of Representatives, Mr Abdussamad Dasuki, raised worries about the differences between its version and that gazetted by the presidency.

However, speaking on Channels Television’s Morning Brief on Monday, Mr Oyedele claimed what has been circulating in the media was fake.

“Before you can say there is a difference between what was gazetted and what was passed, we have what has not been gazetted. We don’t have what was passed,” he said.

“The official harmonised bills certified by the clerk, which the National Assembly sent to the President, we don’t have a copy to compare. Only the lawmakers can say authoritatively what we sent.

“It should be the House of Representatives or Senate version. It should be the harmonised version certified by the clerk. Even me, I cannot say that I have it. I only have what was presented to Mr President to sign.”

Mr Oyedele stated that he reached out to the House of Representatives Committee regarding a particular Section 41 (8), which states, “You have to pay a deposit of 20 per cent.”

He noted that the response given by the committee was that its members had not met on the issue.

“I know that particular provision is not in the final gazette, but it was in the draft gazette. Some people decided that they should write the report of the committee before the committee had met, and it had circulated everywhere.

“What is out there in the media did not come from the committee set up by the House of Representatives. I think we should allow them do the investigation,” Mr Oyedele added.

In June, President Bola Tinubu signed the four tax reform bills into law, marking what the government has described as the most significant overhaul of the country’s tax system in decades.

The tax reform laws, which faced stiff opposition from federal lawmakers from the northern part of the country before their passage, are scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026.

The laws include the Nigeria Tax Act, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act, all operating under a single authority, the Nigeria Revenue Service.

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Economy

Aluminium Extrusion Surges 59.35% to Lead NGX Weekly Gainers’ Chart

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Aluminium Extrusion

By Dipo Olowookere

A total of 55 equities appreciated last week on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited versus the 49 equities recorded a week earlier.

However, 33 stocks closed lower compared with 41 stocks in the previous week, while 55 shares remained unchanged versus 57 shares of the preceding week.

Leading the advancers’ log was Aluminium Extrusion, which gained 59.35 per cent to close at N12.35, Mecure Industries rose by 44.93 per cent to N55.00, First Holdco appreciated by 42.93 per cent to N44.95, Guinness Nigeria improved by 33.01 per cent to N289.70, and NPF Microfinance Bank grew by 20.65 per cent to N3.74.

On the flip side, Living Trust Mortgage Bank lost 11.38 per cent to settle at N3.35, Japaul declined by 10.53 per cent to N2.38, International Energy Insurance slipped by 9.92 per cent to N2.27, FTN Cocoa depreciated by 9.80 per cent to N4.42, and Stanbic IBTC went down by 9.33 per cent to N95.20.

The buying interest in the week raised the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation by 1.76 per cent to 152,057.38 points and N96.937 trillion, respectively.

Similarly, all other indices finished higher with the exception of AFR Bank Value, and the energy indices, which fell by 1.38 per cent and 0.17 per cent apiece.

According to trading data, a total 9.849 billion shares worth N305.843 billion in 126,584 deals exchanged hands in the five-day trading week compared with the 4.373 billion shares valued at N97.783 billion traded in 110,736 deals a week earlier.

The financial services industry led the activity chart with 8.295 billion shares valued at N232.223 billion traded in 50,351 deals, contributing 84.22 per cent and 75.93 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The healthcare space followed with 517.443 million shares worth N3.472 billion in 2,979 deals, and the consumer goods counter transacted 392.765 million shares worth N12.664 billion in 18,438 deals.

The trio of Ecobank, First Holdco, and Access Holdings accounted for 6.424 billion shares worth N204.629 billion in 11,362 deals, contributing 65.23 per cent and 66.91 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

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Economy

NEPC to Disburse $50m Digital Women Empowerment Fund Q1 2026

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Women Exporters in the Digital Economy

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) has assured beneficiaries of the $50 million Women Exporters in the Digital Economy (WEIDE) Fund to expect the first tranche of grants in the first quarter of 2026, following the completion of ongoing capacity-building and compliance processes.

The assurance was given during a Town Hall Meeting for WEIDE Fund beneficiaries held in Abuja over the weekend. The gathering provided an opportunity to review progress made since the launch of the initiative in August 2025.

The $50 million WEIDE Fund is a global initiative by the WTO and ITC to empower women-led businesses in developing countries, especially Nigeria, by providing training, finance, and market access for digital trade, helping them grow from small enterprises to global players through support like grants and mentorship, as seen in its launch phase benefiting 146 Nigerian women entrepreneurs.

Speaking at the event, the chief executive of NEPC, Mrs Nonye Ayeni, called on beneficiaries to maximize the opportunities provided by the programme, emphasizing the progress made and the milestones achieved since its launch.

Mrs Ayeni said the engagement was meant to review the programme’s achievements, identify areas for improvement, and strengthen support for the beneficiaries.

“So, it’s time for us to get together at the end of the year to see how far we’ve gone, how well we’ve done, and what we need to do to make it better and support them more effectively through the WEIDE Fund,” she said.

Mrs Ayeni highlighted the significant capacity-building activities conducted for the 146 selected women entrepreneurs, noting that top-tier coaches and trainers had been deployed immediately after the official launch by the Director General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Mrs Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.

“These coaches are exceptional. They’ve trained our beneficiaries in financial literacy, bookkeeping, soft skills, leadership, succession planning, and digital tools so they can compete globally,” she said.

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