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Economy

$30b Loan: IMF, World Bank Pressure Buhari For Economic Blueprint

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

President Muhammadu Buhari has been told come up with an economic blueprint as he seeks to borrow money to reflate the Nigerian economy, which is still in recession.

Recently, Mr Buhari wrote the National Assembly, seeking their approval to borrow $29.96 billion from the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

This is presently generating mixed reactions from Nigerians, who do not understand why the Federal Government wants to embark on such when the government had claimed in the past that it has recovered huge amount of money allegedly looted by the immediate past administration of Goodluck Jonathan.

But the latest report is that both the World Bank and the IMF are pilling pressure on Mr Buhari to come up with an economic blueprint, if its drive for foreign loans was not to be stalled.

Vanguard gathered that officials of both financial institutions have questioned the Minister of Finance and her team over the absence of a blueprint for which the loans being sought would be utilised.

Sources at the Presidency said at the last IMF/World Bank Group Annual Meetings, that the Nigeria team was asked to produce an economic blueprint for which the IMF/World Bank Group will offer support.

Specifically, Vanguard learned that the US Secretary of Finance and that of the United Kingdom, told the Nigerian team that without a comprehensive economic blueprint, Nigeria would not get support from IMF and the World Bank.

The source said that usually, the IMF asks countries for what it called Policy Support Instrument (PSI), an instrument which serves as a document through which the multilateral institution monitors the economic progress of the country they support.

The source further said that during the Obasanjo administration, the NEEDS document was the Policy Support Instrument used to negotiate debt relief. The source also said the World Bank Group was interested in such a document as a means of evaluating its recently launched Sustainable Development Goals.

It was also learned that at the various road shows in London, foreign investors had asked Nigerians for an economic blueprint. Such an economic framework, they argued, aside from addressing the current challenges, would go a long way to engender confidence in both local and international investors on the way forward.

The source said this had become very imperative, given that investor-perception of Nigeria’s outlook was critical to its economic recovery.

At the moment, the Federal Government has not been able to come up with such a policy document.

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But in reaction to Vanguard’s enquiry a presidential aide said the present administration was working on a comprehensive economic blueprint that would soon be ready for launching.

The source, who said the issue of economic blueprint had become very contentious in government circles, said the economic management team had produced a blue print that will be launched soon. Stressing the need for an economic blueprint last week, Dr Obadiah Mailafia, a former deputy governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), advised the Federal Government to produce a comprehensive economic blueprint to fast track economic growth and development.

Mr Mailafia gave the advice while speaking as a guest lecturer at the Federal Radio Corporation of Nigeria, FRCN, 2016 Annual Lecture in Abuja.

In the lecture, entitled Fighting Corruption and Growing a Sustainable Nigerian Economy, Mr Mailafia appealed to President Muhammadu Buhari to listen to the right advice that would help fix the nation’s economy within a short time.

“Nigerians are getting impatient and they are complaining that this change is not translating into what they are hoping for.

“We must do what we have to do to rescue our economy and to get the great Nigerian people back to work,” Mr Mailafai said.

He also advised the government to create an entrepreneurial state by encouraging innovation and generating critical public goods that would support creativity and high level productivity.

Besides, he urged government to pursue economic policies within the framework of a coherent and credible development strategy, with a greater coordination between fiscal and monetary authorities.

He said: “Sadly, we noticed that Nigeria does not have an economic administration. The British Chancellor of the Exchequer, for example, has at his beck and call some 300 highly well-trained economists in the Treasury.

“Their job is to worry day and night about the economy, monitor key trends, analyse critical developments and proffer policy. We need to build such an administration, in addition to strengthening the National Economic Management Team that has become virtually comatose.

“We cannot continue to blame previous administrations.

“We can only hope like the great Franklin Roosevelt in America of the 1930s and like Barack Obama during the height of the Great Recession.

“Our President needs a brains trust of people who love Nigeria passionately and are ready to do what it takes to take us to the path that destiny has ordained for us,” the ex-CBN deputy governor said.

Debt Management Office (DMO), which is charged with the responsibility of borrowing on behalf of government, had said in its Debt sustainability report for 2016 “There is an urgent need for the Government to formulate an Economic Blueprint or Road-Map for the medium-term.

“Aside from addressing the current challenges, it would go a long way to engender confidence in both local and international investors on the way forward. This has become very imperative, given that investor-perception of a country’s outlook is critical to its economic recovery.

“It is advisable that the Federal Government sustains the on-going reforms and initiatives in the various key sectors of the economy, including agriculture, education, housing, power, and transportation, as this would foster the needed inclusive economic growth and development.

“The passage of the Petroleum Industry Bill (PIB) by the National Assembly is long overdue and should be given speedy attention by the authorities.

“Its passage is expected to liberalise the oil and gas sector, and thus, attract more investments into the sector, which will have positive multiplier effect on the economy. Given that in the short to medium-term, oil would still remain a key revenue earner of the nation, the Federal Government is encouraged to continue on its efforts to curtail crude oil production disruptions in the oil producing areas.

“In view of the country’s huge infrastructure requirements, the Federal Government is enjoined to creatively explore other alternative and viable sources of financing critical infrastructure development outside the routine budgetary process.

“These may include the setting up of an Infrastructure Development Fund, the issuance of Infrastructure-tied Bonds, as well as encouragement for the private sector to participate in funding viable infrastructural projects through Public-Private-Partnership arrangements.

“As part of the initiatives for boosting revenue, the Federal Government is encouraged to fast-track the process of liberalising the exploration of the solid minerals deposits across the country. This is to make the sector much more attractive and competitive, and further expand the non-oil revenue base.

“As part of government’s commitment to encouraging private sector participation in the development of the economy, the demand for FGN Guarantees may likely increase. In order to instil discipline and discourage frivolous requests that may unduly expose the Federal Government, it is also recommended that the issuance of FGN Guarantees to the private sector should attract appropriate fees, and should be within an established framework.”

Former President Olusegun Obasanjo weekend also kicked against the plan by the Federal Government to obtain a $29.96 billion foreign loan.

Mr Obasanjo was said to have phoned the Minister of Finance, Mrs Kemi Adeosun, shortly after the media reported the loan bid, which the Federal Government explained would be used to finance critical infrastructure deficiency between now and 2018.

But the Finance Minister, it was learned, told an alarmed Mr Obasanjo that she would pay him a visit to explain the rationale for the plan, which had triggered mixed reactions on the necessity or otherwise of such loan.

The former president, it was gathered, spoke on the proposed foreign loan when he received members of a political association, The National Patriots’ Movement of Nigeria (NPMN), led by the national coordinator, Chief Dosu Oladipo, at his Hilltop residence in Abeokuta, the Ogun State capital, on Friday.

Mr Obasanjo, it was learned, not only opposed the loan bid, but also threatened to draw a battle line with the Federal Government should it go ahead to obtain the loan which he said could have far-reaching negative effects on the nation.

While some experts have advised the government to deploy part of the funds reportedly recovered from allegedly corrupt politicians in the last political dispensation to such purpose, others claimed the loan could be raised internally.

It will be recalled that the Mr Obasanjo led administration had successful negotiated with Western nations to write off $12.5 billion foreign debt to the Paris Club, a body of European creditors during his tenure.

However in justifying the proposal for the N29.96 billion external loan, President Muhammadu Buhari, had in a letter to the National Assembly said, “The total cost of the projects and programmes under the borrowing (plan) is $29.96 billion made up of proposed projects and programmes loan of $11.274 billion, special national infrastructure projects, $10.686 billion, Euro bonds of $4.5 billion and Federal Government budget support of $3.5 billion.”

But Nigeria’s foreign reserves have dipped lately, ostensibly owing to economic recession and intense pressure on Nigeria’s naira as a result of the scarcity of United States dollars.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

Nipco, 11 Plc Crash OTC Securities Exchange by 4.76%

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Energy stocks influenced the 4.76 per cent loss recorded by the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Friday, December 5.

The culprits were the duo of 11 Plc and Nipco Plc,with the former shedding N32.17 to end at N291.83 per share compared with the previous day’s N324.00 per share, and the latter down by N21.00 to sell at N195.00 per unit versus the previous session’s N216.00 per unit.

Consequently, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) slumped by 170.16 points to 3,401.37 points from 3,571.53 points and the market capitalisation lost N101.81 billion to close at N2.035 billion from the N2.136 trillion quoted in the preceding session.

The OTC securities exchange suffered the decline yesterday despite the share prices of three companies closing green.

Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc was up by N1.80 to close at N39.80 per share compared with Thursday’s price of N38.00 per share, Air Liquide Plc appreciated by N1.09 to N11.99 per unit from N10.90 per unit, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc grew by 78 Kobo to N56.57 per share from N55.79 per share.

During the session, the volume of transactions rose by 6,885.3 per cent to 18.2 million units from 4.3 million units, the value of transactions ballooned by 10,301.7 per cent to N389.7 million from N347.2 million, but the number of deals declined by 29.7 per cent to 26 deals from 37 deals.

Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company (InfraCredit) Plc ended the day as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units worth N16.4 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 170.4 million units valued at N8.0 billion, and Air Liquide Plc with 507.5 million units worth N4.2 billion.

InfraCredit Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 5.8 billion units transacted for N16.4 billion, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 1.2 billion units sold for N420.2 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 536.9 million units worth N524.9 million.

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Economy

Naira Depreciates to N1,450/$1 at Official Forex Market

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira depreciated further against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, December 5, as FX demand pressure mounts.

The Nigerian currency lost N2.60 or 0.18 per cent against the greenback to close at N1,450.43/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,447.83/$1.

Equally, the domestic currency declined against the Pound Sterling in the official forex market during the session by N4.48 to trade at N1,935.45/£1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,930.97/£1 and shrank against the Euro by 43 Kobo to end at N1,689.17/€1 versus the preceding session’s rate of N1,688.74/€1.

Similarly, the local currency performed badly against the US Dollar at the GTBank FX counter by N2 to close at N1,455/$1 versus Thursday’s N1,453/$1 but traded flat at the parallel market at N14.65/$1.

As the country gets into the festive period, pressure mounted on the local currency reflecting higher foreign payments and lower FX inflows.

However, there are expectations that the Nigerian currency will be stable, supported by interventions by to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in the face of steady dollar Demand and inflows from Detty December festivities that will give the Naira a boost after it depreciated mildly last month.

Traders cited by Reuters expect that the Naira will trade within a band of N1,443-N1,450/$1 next week, buoyed by improved FX interventions by the apex bank.

As for the crypto market, it was down yesterday due to profit-taking associated with year-end trading. However, the December 1-Year Consumer Inflation Expectation by the University of Michigan fell to 4.1 per cent from 4.5 per cent previously and 4.5 per cent expected. The 5-Year Consumer Inflation Expectation fell to 3.2 per cent from 3.4 per cent previously and 3.4 per cent expected.

With the dearth of official economic data of late, these private surveys have taken on a new level of significance and the market banks of them to make decisions.

Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 5.7 per cent to $0.4142, Dogecoin (DOGE) slid by 5.1 per cent to $0.1394, Ethereum (ETH) dropped by 3.9 per cent to $3,039.75, Solana (SOL) declined by 3.8 per cent to $133.24, and Litecoin (LTC) fell by 3.7 per cent to $80.59.

Further, Bitcoin (BTC) went down by 2.6 per cent to sell at $89,683.72, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 2.2 per cent to $883.59, and Ripple (XRP) shrank by 2.1 per cent to $2.04, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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Economy

Oil Market Climbs on Federal Reserve Rate-Cut Signals, Supply Concerns

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market was up on Friday on increasing expectations the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week, which could boost economic growth and energy demand.

Brent futures rose by 49 cents or 0.8 per cent to $63.75 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by 41 cents or 0.7 per cent to $60.08 per barrel.

Investors digested a US inflation report and recalibrated expectations for the Federal Reserve to reduce rates at its December 9-10 meeting.

US consumer spending increased moderately in September after three straight months of solid gains, suggesting a loss of momentum in the economy at the end of the third quarter as a lackluster labor market and the rising cost of living curbed demand.

Traders have been pricing in an 87 per cent chance that the US central bank will lower borrowing costs by 25 basis points next week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

Investors also focused on news from Russia and Venezuela to determine whether oil supplies from the two sanctioned members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) will increase or decrease in the future.

The failure of US talks in Moscow to achieve any significant breakthrough over the war in Ukraine has helped to boost oil prices so far this week.

A loss of Venezuelan oil production in case of a US military intervention will materially impact global benchmark prices as the market will have to replace Venezuela’s heavy crude.

Venezuela is estimated to pump about 1.1 million barrels per day of crude oil at present, so if the US-Venezuela tension escalation into an invasion in the South American country, this volume of crude would be at risk.

Reuters reported that the Group of Seven countries and the European Union are in talks to replace a price cap on Russian oil exports with a full maritime services ban in a bid to reduce the oil revenue that helps finance Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Any deal that could lift sanctions on Russia, the world’s second-biggest crude producer after the US, could increase the amount of oil available to global markets, weakening prices.

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