Economy
Adesina Tasks Tinubu on Fiscal Stability
By Adedapo Adesanya
The president of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Mr Akinwumi Adesina, has tasked President Bola Tinubu to reduce the high cost of governance and ensure fiscal stability.
He made the disclosure during his speech at the Inauguration Lecture for the New President of Nigeria on May 27, 2023, in Abuja, noting that, “The starting point must be macroeconomic and fiscal stability. Unless the economy is revived and fiscal challenges addressed boldly, resources to develop will not be there.”
He noted that Nigeria currently faces huge fiscal deficits, estimated at 6 per cent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
“This has been due to huge federal and state government expenditures, lower receipts due to dwindling revenues from crude oil export, vandalism of pipelines, and illegal bunkering of crude oil.
“According to Nigeria’s Debt Management Office, Nigeria now spends 96 per cent of its revenue servicing debt, with the debt-to-revenue ratio rising from 83.2 per cent in 2021 to 96.3 per cent by 2022.
“Some will argue that the debt to GDP ratio at 34 per cent is still low compared to other countries in Africa, which is correct, but no one pays their debt using GDP.
“Debt is paid using revenue, and Nigeria’s revenues have been declining,” he warned.
He lamented that Nigeria now earns revenue to service debt—not to grow, and advised the government to remove the inefficient fuel subsidies, a decision he adhered to on Monday.
In his words, “Nigeria’s fuel subsidies benefit the rich, not the poor, fuelling their and government’s endless fleets of cars at the expense of the poor. Estimates show that the poorest 40 per cent of the population consume just 3 per cent of petrol.
“Fuel subsidies are killing the Nigerian economy, costing Nigeria $10 billion alone in 2022. That means Nigeria is borrowing what it does not have to if it simply eliminates the subsidies and uses the resources well for its national development.”
He advised that rather support should be given to private sector refineries and modular refineries to allow for efficiency and competitiveness to drive down fuel pump prices.
“The newly commissioned Dangote Refinery by President Buhari—the largest single train petroleum refinery in the world, as well as its Petrochemical Complex—will revolutionize Nigeria’s economy,” he announced.
The former Nigerian minister of agriculture also said the country must urgently look at the cost of governance.
“The cost of governance in Nigeria is way too high and should be drastically reduced to free up more resources for development. Nigeria is spending very little on development.
“Nigeria is ranked among countries with the lowest human development index in the world, with a rank of 167 among 174 countries globally, according to the World Bank 2022 Public Expenditure Review report.
“To meet Nigeria’s massive infrastructure needs, according to the report, will require $3 trillion by 2050. According to the report, at the current rate, it would take Nigeria 300 years to provide its minimum level of infrastructure needed for development.
“All living Nigerians today, and many generations to come, will be long gone by then! We must change this. Nigeria must rely more on the private sector for infrastructure development to reduce fiscal burdens on the government,” he hammered.
He also tasked the Tinubu administration to raise tax revenue, as the tax-to-GDP ratio is still low.
“This must include improving tax collection, tax administration, moving from tax exemption to tax redemption, ensuring that multinational companies pay appropriate royalties and taxes and that leakages in tax collection are closed.”
However, he noted that simply raising taxes is not enough, “as many question the value of paying taxes, hence the high level of tax avoidance. Many citizens provide their own electricity, sink boreholes to get access to water, and repair roads in their towns and neighbourhoods.”
“These are essentially high implicit taxes. Nigerians, therefore, pay the highest ‘implicit tax rates’ in the world.
“Governments need to assure effective social contracts by delivering quality public services. It is not the amount collected, it is how it is spent and what is delivered. Nations that grow better run effective governments that assure social contracts with their citizens,” he added.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) has postponed plans to unwind several formal and voluntary crude production cuts into 2026.
The alliance agreed to extend the 2 million barrels per day and the 1.65 million barrels per day of cuts until the end of 2026 from the end of 2025, respectively, according to statements issued by the group on Thursday.
The gradual unwinding of 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts will start from April 2025 with monthly increases of 138,000 barrels per day and will last 18 months until September 2026.
The group had previously planned to unwind the 2.2 million cut over 12 months through monthly output increases of 180,000 barrels per day.
Under its formal output strategy, the broader OPEC+ coalition is now restricting its combined production to 39.725 million barrels per day until December 31, 2026, after previously only applying this quota throughout 2025.
Eight OPEC+ members, excluding Nigeria, will now extend their 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production decline into the first quarter, and will begin hiking production incrementally between April and September 2026.
Several OPEC+ members will also be postponing the unwinding of the second 1.65 million barrels per day cut until the end of next year. This latter production decline was previously only set to last through 2025.
Despite these sets of production trims and ongoing conflict threatening the hydrocarbon-rich Middle Eastern region, global oil prices have remained subdued for the better part of this year, under pressure from a lukewarm demand outlook.
Market analysts also warned that the oil market will now shift focus to the actions of US President-elect Donald Trump, who when he takes office in January, could impose new sanctions on Iran, tariffs on China and has pledged an end to the Russia-Ukraine war.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Head of Research at Derive.xyz, Mr Sean Dawson, has disclosed that the price of Bitcoin could potentially reach $200,000 next year.
On Wednesday, the token cross the elusive $100,000 threshold buoyed by renewed interest in the crypto market after Mr Donald Trump won the presidential election of the United States held on November 5, 2024.
Mr Trump, who is returning to the White House for the second term after he occupied it from 2017 to 2021, is a fan of the crypto landscape and it is believed that his return would favour the market.
In the analysis done by the world-leading onchain options DeFi protocol, it was stated BTC has the 18 per cent chance of shattering that ceiling.
“While Bitcoin hits a major milestone of reaching above $100,000 for the first time today (yesterday), optimism has surged on Derive.xyz, with an 18.7 per cent chance of BTC reaching $200,000 by September 26, 2025 – four-times higher since the US election,” Mr Dawson said in a note to Business Post.
“Ethereum is not far behind with an all-time high prediction of 23.6 per cent chance of reaching $8,000 by the same date.
“Current market dynamics also show a 10.5 per cent probability of Ethereum hitting $6,000 and a 6 per cent chance for Bitcoin to reach $150,000, both by January 31.
“The sharp increase in the 25 delta skews for Bitcoin to 8.8 per cent and 10.3 per cent for 7 and 30 days, respectively, compared to 24 hours ago, shows that traders are heavily favouring calls over puts to maximise on potential upward movements.
“Additionally, Bitcoin’s ATM implied volatility has reflected these expectations with a significant increase, peaking at 72 per cent recently, before adjusting to 61 per cent. This indicates anticipation of substantial price movements in the coming week.
“The heightened market activity and trader confidence are mirrored in Derive.xyz‘s performance, with our total value locked (TVL) reaching a new peak of $94.8 million. This milestone solidifies Derive.xyz’s position as a dominant player in the DeFi space, poised to leverage these optimistic market trends, as we move toward a TGE on January 15,” he added.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The Investments and Securities Bill 2024 has been passed by the Senate after it scaled the third reading at the upper chamber of the National Assembly.
The bill aims to protect investors at the Nigerian capital market as it blocks different forms of abuse, insider dealings, preventing unauthorised, illegal , unlawful, fraudulent and unfair trade practices relating to securities and investments.
The chairman of the Senate Committee on Capital Market, Mr Osita Izunaso, while presenting the bill to the parliament, disclosed that the repeal and enactment bill, when signed into law by the President, would further strengthen the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) carry sanitise the market.
According to him, the bill will “undoubtedly provide a significant opportunity to drive the growth of the capital market and diversification, thereby creating a conducive atmosphere for investors in the Nigerian capital market.
In addition, it will “address modern forms of financial malpractices and reinforce investors’ protection by engendering robust regulations around market abuses, insider trading and governance standards for publicly traded companies.”
He said, The bill envisages regulatory framework for digital currencies and fintech activities, including the supervision of blockchain and cryptocurrency transactions to support the integration of innovative technologies within the scope of the capital market.”
“The bill seeks to set a clear-cut delineation of roles amongst regulatory bodies in order foster transparency and reduce regulatory overlap, thereby enhancing the operational efficiency of Nigeria’s Securities and Exchange Commission;
“It seeks to support the introduction and regulation of diversified financial instruments, including derivatives, Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) and other sophisticated products, which are essential for meeting the needs of a broad investor base and increasing market depth,” he added.
Business Post reports that when signed into law, the new bill will repeal the existing Investments and Securities Act 2007.
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