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African Capital Markets Show Recovery in 2017—PwC

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African Capital Markets Show Recovery in 2017—PwC

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Overall, African equity capital market transaction volume and value improved in 2017 over 2016. In terms of value, 2017 saw the largest initial public offerings (IPOs) over the trailing five-year period, and an increase in the total value of equity capital market (ECM) transactions of 49% between 2016 and 2017 in US dollar terms.

PwC released its 2017 African Capital Markets Watch publication today, which analyses equity, and debt capital market transactions that took place between 2013 and 2017 on exchanges throughout Africa, as well as transactions by African companies on international exchanges.

This report lists all new primary market equity initial public offerings (IPOs) and further offers (FOs) by listed companies, in which capital was raised on Africa’s principal stock markets and market segments. The report also includes IPO and FO activity of African companies on international exchanges or non-African companies on African exchanges, on an annual basis.

Andrew Del Boccio, PwC Capital Markets Partner notes: “Capital markets in Africa saw a recovery in 2017 with the positive impact of commodity stabilisation on economies such as Cote d’Ivoire and Nigeria, which emerged from five successive quarters of GDP declines, and resilience in the face of economic and political uncertainty in South Africa.”

Since 2013, there have been 519 African ECM transactions raising a total of $52.7 billion, up 17% in terms of capital raised over the previous five-year period. Overall, ECM activity in 2017 was the second highest since 2013 in terms of volume with 121 issuances, up 25% over the prior year, and the highest since 2013 in terms of value, driven mainly by a few significant IPOs and FOs during the year.

“We are optimistic about the pipeline of companies seeking to access the capital markets in 2018, including cross-border IPOs of African companies, given encouraging indicators in large markets such as South Africa, Egypt, and Nigeria, and the continued economic growth in East Africa and the Francophone West African countries,” Del Boccio comments.

African ECM activity in 2017 was largely driven by the financial services sector for FOs, and the consumer services sector for IPOs, though both of these statistics were impacted by a few very sizable transactions during the year. Businesses in sectors such as telecommunications, consumer goods and services, financials, and healthcare continued to form a significant component of African ECM activity.

Although levels of market capitalisation for many of Africa’s exchanges remain low in a global context, a number of initiatives have taken place to deepen liquidity and provide investment opportunities for foreign and domestic investors alike. Regulators in some African countries have made efforts in recent years to encourage companies in specific sectors to list shares on their domestic stock exchanges. Additionally, enhanced regulatory capital requirements have driven financial services companies to access both the debt and equity capital markets over the past year.

2017 also saw a greater focus by exchanges on small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) with the introduction of junior or alternative boards. In South Africa, the entry of four new exchanges altered the South African listing environment. Although there have been a number of listings on these new boards, with more activity in 2018, the listings to date have been technical in nature, with no new equity proceeds raised.

African IPO market

2017 saw the second-largest volume in IPO activity (28) over the past five years and is the largest in value, with $2.9bn raised in IPO proceeds, exceeding 2015 (the year with the next-largest value raised over the past five years) by 42%. Over the past five years, there have been 134 IPOs by African companies on both African and international exchanges, raising $9.1bn, a 37% increase in capital raised over the preceding five year period, 2012-2016.

Despite the policy gridlock and economic and political uncertainty South Africa has experienced over the past five years, the JSE has maintained its dominant role in the African capital markets. In 2017, capital raised from IPOs by companies on the JSE in US dollar terms increased by 178% as compared to 2016.  Since 2013, capital raised from IPOs by companies on the JSE alone of $4.8bn represents 52% of the total African IPO capital raised.

Over the five-year period, the Bourse de Tunis with 23 issuances, and the EGX with 13 issuances followed the JSE in terms of volume of IPO transactions. In terms of value over the past five years, the next largest value of IPO proceeds raised was on the EGX at $1.3bn.

While a stronger year for some exchanges in sub-Saharan Africa, IPO activity on the North African stock exchanges – Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria – decreased by 61% in terms of the value of IPO proceeds. There was also no IPO activity in Ghana compared to 2016, which saw $102.0 million raised on the Ghana Stock Exchange.

In contrast, elsewhere on the continent, 2017 saw some significant increases in IPO value on exchanges in Namibia, Rwanda and Tanzania compared to the prior year.

The top 10 African IPOs by value took place in South Africa, Egypt, Tanzania and the Francophone West African region, represented by the BRVM. On a sector basis, for the first time in five years the consumer services sector dominated the African IPO market with 44% of total value, followed by the financial services sector with 26%. In terms of volume, financial services accounted for the greatest volume of IPOs with 50%, followed by consumer goods with 14%.

African FO market

In 2017 FO activity was on a par with 2015 levels in terms of transaction volume, at 93 FOs – this represented an increase of 27% on the prior year. In terms of proceeds raised, 2017 saw an increase of 42% on the prior year, though it fell short of the highs noted in 2015. Over the past five years, there have been 385 FOs by African companies, raising $43.6bn on both African and international exchanges.

Over the five-year period, the vast majority of FO activity took place in South Africa representing 65% and 86% of total FO volume and value, respectively. This is broadly consistent with the 2017 year, when South Africa accounted for 51% and 86% in total FO volume and value, respectively. Egypt accounted for the next largest amount of FO volume for the 2017 year at 14% and for the five-year period 2013-2017 at 6%, respectively.  In terms of FO value, Mauritius accounted for the next-largest FO proceeds raised in 2017 at 5%, and Nigeria the next-largest proceeds for the five-year period at 4%.

During 2017, the sector composition of African FO activity was largely consistent with the five-year average in terms of value and volume, with the financial services sector contributing 56% of the total FO value, followed by the basic materials sector at 14%.

Inbound, outbound, domestic and cross-border activity, 2013-2017

In 2017, domestic activity represented 76% of total ECM activity in terms of volume, and 87% in terms of value. For African ECM data, this statistic is driven by significant activity on the larger exchanges such as the JSE and EGX. There was an overall drop of 17% and 44% in cross-border activity in 2017 compared to 2016 in terms of both volume and value respectively.

Outbound ECM volume in 2017 remained on a par with prior periods, ranging between a five-year low in 2016 of ten, and a high of 17 in 2014. However, there was a significant drop of 89% in the value of outbound ECM activity in 2017 compared to 2016.

African debt markets

In respect of DCM activity, non-local currency corporate issuances totalled $7.5bn, an increase of 68% in terms of value and 110% in terms of volume over the prior year, with several large first-time issuers tapping into a market with sustained appetite for emerging market yields. Most of this funding was targeted at refinancing existing debt, but there were also instances of these proceeds being put to use for acquisitions or strategic capital expenditure.

The year ahead

Del Boccio comments: “In terms of capital markets activity, we expect that the recovery seen in 2017 will gain momentum in 2018 against a more stable political and economic backdrop. This will likely include an increase in cross-border ECM activity for regional players looking to compete in global markets, the continued impact of partial privatisation efforts through the capital markets, and the effect of other regulatory drivers that will lead African companies’ capital markets.”

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Unlisted Securities Depreciate by 0.41% Friday

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Unlisted Securities Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange returned to the bearish zone on Friday, January 21 after back-to-back stalemates as it depreciated by 0.41 per cent, driven by the negative price movement in Central Securities Clearing Systems (CSCS) Plc.

CSCS Plc closed at N19.38 per unit after moving down by 57 kobo or 2.7 per cent from its previous day’s value of N19.90.

The depreciation in this stock weakened the market capitalisation by N2.6 billion to N630.46 billion from N633.06 billion and slowed the NASD Unlisted Securities Index (NSI) by 3.07 points to wrap the session at 744.54 points compared with 747.61 points of the previous session.

However, there was a surge in the volume of securities traded at the bourse as investors exchanged 4.1 million units, 103,160 per cent higher than the 4,000 units of securities transacted a day earlier.

Likewise, the value of shares traded at the session swelled to N86.9 million, which by evaluation is 11,227.6 per cent higher than N767,100 posted on Thursday.

These transactions were carried out in eight deals, 300 per cent higher than the two deals carried out at the preceding trading session.

Business Post reports that the unlisted securities market wrapped the day without a price gainer.

At the close of trading, the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was CSCS Plc with 653.6 million units worth N13.7 billion, VFD Group Plc followed with 916,161 units valued at N331.5 million, while Friesland Campina WAMCO Nigeria Plc has traded 205,566 units of its stocks valued at N24.3 million.

Also, CSCS ended the trading session as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 653.6 million units of its securities valued at N13.7 billion, followed by VFD Group Plc with a turnover of 916,161 units worth N331.5 million, while  Friesland Campina WAMCO Nigeria Plc has transacted 205,566 units of its stocks valued at N24.3 million.

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Economy

Naira Falls at I&E as Bears Wipe $1trn from Crypto Market

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Future of the Crypto Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira recorded a 37 kobo or 0.09 per cent loss against the US Dollar at the Investors and Exporters (I&E) segment of the foreign exchange (forex) market as it traded at N415.10/$1 compared with N414.73/$1 it was traded on Thursday.

It was observed that the Naira came under pressure during the trading session with the value of transactions rising by 56.2 per cent or $60.7 million at the market window to $168.62 million from the preceding day’s $107.92 million.

In the same vein, the local currency depreciated against the American currency at the interbank segment of the market yesterday by 5 kobo or 0.1 per cent to N411.95/$1 from the previous day’s N411.90/$1.

However, the local currency lost 60 kobo against the Pound Sterling to trade at N552.75/£1 in contrast to N553.35/£1 it closed on Thursday and against the Euro, it depreciated by N2.64 to N448.79/€1 from N446.15/€1.

In a related development, the crypto market bled yesterday, with the Federal Reserve intending to withdraw stimulus from the market, riskier assets in the world such as the assets have suffered from over $1 trillion lost in market capitalisation so far.

Russia also added to the fear that seems to be gripping cryptocurrencies as the country’s central bank issued a harsh report on cryptocurrencies, including a potential ban on mining and trading.

Bitcoin (BTC), the largest digital asset, lost more than 9 per cent on Friday and dropped below $36,000, its lowest level since July.

Since its peak in November, it has lost over 45 per cent of its value as it traded at the Naira equivalent of N20,376,819.45.

Other digital currencies have suffered just as much, if not more, with Dash (DASH) plunging 19.7 per cent to trade at N57,825.35, Litecoin (LTC) moved down by 15.9 per cent to trade at N61,392.61, while Binance Coin (BNB) recorded a 15.6 per cent to trade at N152,054.69.

Cardano (ADA) went south by 13.1 per cent to trade at N650, Ripple (XRP) fell by 13.0 per cent to trade at N350.32, Dogecoin (DOGE) declined by 11.3 per cent to sell at N84.80, Tron (TRX) depreciated by 5.9 per cent to N35.99, Ethereum (ETH) made a 5.0 per cent loss to sell at N1,699,900.00, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) made a 0.2 per cent depreciation to sell for N575.01.

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Economy

Oil Again Falls Under Pressure of US Inventories Rise, Profit Taking

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Nigerian Oil Industry

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices closed in the bearish territory on Friday, falling for another session pressured by an unexpected rise in US crude and fuel inventories after investors took profits after the benchmarks touched seven-year highs earlier in the week.

Brent crude dropped 49 cents or 0.55 per cent to trade at $87.89 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) lost 41 cents or 0.48 per cent to settle at $85.14 per barrel.

However, both crude benchmarks rose for a fifth week in a row, gaining around 2 per cent this week, showing that prices were up more than 10 per cent so far this year on concerns over tightening supplies.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported the first US crude build since November in the week just as fuel inventories hit an 11-month high in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Crude inventories rose by 515,000 barrels in the week to January 14 to 413.8 million barrels, compared with analysts’ expectations of a 938,000-barrel drop.

Earlier in the week, both Brent and WTI rose to their highest levels since October 2014.

But the latest pullback happened due to a combination of pre-weekend profit-taking and the absence of fresh bullish catalysts.

Analysts also said they expect the current pressure on prices to be limited owing to supply concerns and rising demand.

Tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East are also heightening fears of supply disruption as top US and Russian diplomats made no major breakthrough at talks on Ukraine on Friday.

There was, however, an agreement to keep talking to try to resolve a crisis that has stoked fears of a military conflict.

Amid these, there are forecasts that prices will perform their best in recent times this year due to low spare OPEC+ capacity, low inventories and geopolitical tensions rising.

Analysts at Bank of America said they expect to see Brent at around $120 a barrel in mid-2022.

UBS expects crude oil demand to reach record highs this year and for Brent to trade in a range of $80-$90 a barrel for now.

Morgan Stanley has raised its Brent price forecast to $100 a barrel in the third quarter, up from its previous projection of $90.

Meanwhile, in the United States, energy firms cut oil rigs this week for the first time in 13 weeks.

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