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Brexit, China’s Economic Deceleration Threatens Africa’s Growth—ECA Director

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By Dipo Olowookere

Africa’s economy is set to feel the effects of Brexit following Britain’s formal trigger Wednesday of the two-year exit process from the European Union after last year’s historic referendum vote to leave the EU.

Director Adam Elhiraika of the of Economic Commission’s Macroeconomic Policy Division says Africa’s economic growth declined from 3.7 percent in 2015 to 1,7 percent in 2016 due to weak global economic conditions, persistent low oil prices and adverse weather conditions and may further be affected by Brexit.

“The effects of Brexit may slow the global economy with spillover effects into Africa, mainly through trade and financial channels,” Mr Elhiraika said as he spoke about the ECA’s Economic Report on Africa (ERA) 2017 which was launched Saturday in Dakar.

He added; “Economic deceleration in China, subdued performance of the euro area and low commodity prices also pose risks for Africa’s growth. Rising debt levels also pose a concern for continental long-term growth.”

Mr Elhiraika said although Africa’s medium-term growth prospects remained positive despite risks and uncertainties, growth continued to decline regardless of a sluggish recovery in global commodity prices.

He said weather-related shocks remained a regional risk, in particular in parts of eastern and southern Africa and could lead to poor harvests and heightens the risk of inflation.

Ultimately Africa’s growth is expected to rebound despite global headwinds even after feeling the effects of Brexit and all but Mr Elhiraika said also of concern was the fact that security remained a risk in some African countries affecting economic growth in the process.

He said progress in combating poverty and addressing inequalities on the continent remained slow raising the need for countries to embrace the rapid urbanization on the continent and coming up with policies that will spur sustainable, inclusive growth.

“The high level of initial inequality, rapid population growth and delayed demographic transition and the sectoral composition of growth are some factors responsible for the limited impact of economic growth on poverty reduction,” he said.

ERA2017 urges governments in Africa to implement urban and industrial policies in a coordinated manner and to instigate and coordinate investments in urban infrastructure, particularly in electricity and transport, both to support industrial enterprises and to meet urban populations’ needs.

Titled; “Urbanization and Industrialization for Africa’s Transformation”, the ERA looks at recent economic and social developments in Africa and offers policy recommendations to Member States and the 2017 edition specifically calls on Africa to take advantage of rapid urbanization being experienced throughout the continent.

Africa is expected to be predominantly urban by 2050 with the average annual rate of urban growth over the period 2010-2015 estimated at 3,6 percent, much higher than the rest of the world.

However, close to 60 percent of people in Africa still live in rural areas.

“Unlike global trends, urban-rural differential in welfare and living standards in Africa do not converge with increasing urbanization,” said Mr Elhiraika.

He said recent developments in the global economy have demonstrated that Africa’s dependence on commodity exports is not sustainable and suggested the continent diversifies and emphasizes value addition through commodity-based industrialization.

“Volatility in commodity prices calls for prudent and counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies and strategies,” said Mr Elhiraika, adding; “There’s need also to boost productivity and competitiveness by building the continent’s infrastructure and increased investment in research and development.”

He said Africa also needs to enact policies that promote agricultural growth and increase its global competitiveness, adding this is crucial to reducing poverty and overall income inequality and enhancing structural transformation in Africa.

The policy response to urbanization, he said, needs to cover the entire rural-urban continuum, including secondary cities.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Nigeria, UK Move to Close £1.2bn Trade Data Gap

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trade value

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria and the United Kingdom are moving to tackle a long-standing £1.2 billion discrepancy in their trade records, with both countries agreeing to develop a structured data-sharing system aimed at improving transparency and accountability across bilateral commerce.

The agreement was reached during a high-level meeting in London on March 18, 2026, held on the sidelines of President Bola Tinubu’s State Visit, under the Nigeria–United Kingdom Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP).

According to a statement by Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) spokesperson, Mr Abdullahi Maiwada, the talks signal a shift toward deeper operational cooperation between both countries’ customs authorities.

At the centre of the discussions was a persistent mismatch in trade figures. While Nigeria recorded about £504 million worth of imports from the UK in 2024, British records show exports to Nigeria at approximately £1.7 billion for the same period, leaving a gap of roughly £1.2 billion.

To address this, the two countries agreed to explore a pre-arrival data exchange framework that will connect their digital customs systems, with the aim of improving risk management, reconciling trade data, and strengthening compliance monitoring along the corridor.

The meeting was led by Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi and Ms Megan Shaw, Head of International Customs and Border Engagement at His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC), and also focused on customs modernisation and data transparency.

Mr Adeniyi underscored the broader economic implications of the initiative, noting that customs collaboration plays a central role in trade facilitation.

“Effective customs cooperation remains a critical enabler of economic growth and sustainable trade development,” he said.

He added that “customs administrations serve as the frontline institutions responsible for ensuring that trade flows between both countries are transparent, secure, and mutually beneficial.”

The Nigeria–UK trade relationship spans multiple sectors, including industrial goods, agriculture, energy, and consumer products — all of which depend heavily on efficient port and border operations.

Beyond addressing data gaps, the meeting also highlighted ongoing modernisation efforts on both sides. The UK showcased advancements in artificial intelligence-driven trade tools, digital verification systems, and real-time analytics designed to enhance cargo processing, risk assessment, and border security.

The engagement further produced plans for a Customs Mutual Administrative Assistance Framework, alongside technical groundwork for capacity building, knowledge exchange, and a joint engagement mechanism under the ETIP platform.

Mr Maiwada said the outcomes are expected to strengthen Nigeria’s trade ecosystem and support broader economic reforms.

“The NCS has reaffirmed its commitment to deepening international partnerships as part of a broader modernisation agenda designed to promote transparency, efficiency, and competitiveness in Nigeria’s trading environment,” the statement said.

It added that “insights from this engagement will strengthen its operational capacity, enhance trade facilitation, and support Nigeria’s economic reform objectives under the Renewed Hope programme.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Imports $3.74bn Crude in 2025 to Bridge Supply Gap

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery imported a total of $3.74 billion) worth of crude oil in 2025, to make up for shortfalls that threatened the plant’s 650,000-barrel-a-day operational capacity.

The data disclosed in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report noted that “Crude oil imports of $3.74 billion by Dangote Refinery” contributed to movements in the country’s current account position, as Nigeria imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion between January and December 2025.

Last year, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which is the refinery’s main trade partner and minority stakeholder, faced its challenges, the company had to forge alternative supply links. This led to the importation of crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.

For instance, in March 2025, the company said it now counts Brazil and Equatorial Guinea among its global oil suppliers, receiving up to 1 million barrels of the medium-sweet grade Tupi crude at the refinery on March 26 from Brazil’s Petrobras.

Meanwhile, crude oil exports dropped from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025, representing a 14.41 per cent decline, further shaping the external balance.

The report added that the refinery’s operations also reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, noting that “availability of refined petroleum products from Dangote Refinery also led to a substantial decline in fuel imports.”

Specifically, refined petroleum product imports fell sharply to $10.00 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024, representing a 28.9 per cent decline, while total oil-related imports also eased.

However, this was offset by a rise in non-oil imports, which increased from $25.74 billion to $29.24 billion, up 13.6 per cent year-on-year, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods.

At the same time, the goods account remained in surplus at $14.51 billion in 2025, rising from $13.17 billion in 2024, supported largely by activities linked to the Dangote refinery and improved export performance in other segments.

The CBN stated that the stronger goods balance was driven by “significant export of refined petroleum products worth $5.85bn by Dangote Refinery,” alongside increased gas exports to other economies.

Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025, lower than the $19.03 billion recorded in 2024 but significantly higher than $6.42 billion in 2023. The decline from 2024 was driven partly by structural changes in oil trade flows, including crude imports for domestic refining, according to the report.

Pressure on the current account came from higher external payments. Net outflows for services rose from $13.36 billion in 2024 to $14.58 billion in 2025, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, insurance, and other services.

Similarly, net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09 billion, largely due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.

In contrast, secondary income inflows declined slightly from $24.88 billion in 2024 to $23.20 billion in 2025, as official development assistance and personal transfers weakened, although remittances remained a key source of inflow, as domestic refineries grappled with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector.

This comes despite the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude policy designed to prioritise local supply.

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Economy

Sovereign Trust Insurance Submits Application for N5.0bn Rights Issue

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Sovereign Trust Insurance

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

An application has been submitted by Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc for its proposed N5.0 billion rights issue.

The application was sent to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, and it is for approval to list shares from the exercise when issued to qualifying shareholders.

A notice signed by the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of the exchange, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, disclosed that the request was filed on behalf of the underwriting firm by its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities.

The company intends to raise about N5.022 billion from the rights issue to boost its capital base, as demanded by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) for insurers in the country.

Sovereign Trust Insurance plans to issue 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.

“Trading license holders are hereby notified that Sovereign Trust Insurance has through its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities, submitted an application to Nigerian Exchange Limited for the approval and listing of a rights issue of 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026,” the notification read.

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