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CardinalStone Sees Naira at N1,350/$1, Inflation at 13.9% in 2026

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira could strengthen to between N1,350 and N1,450 per dollar in 2026, driven by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and a more supportive foreign exchange environment.

This is according to CardinalStone Partners’ 2026 economic outlook report, Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains, published this week.

The report outlines expectations of currency appreciation, easing inflationary pressures, and softer domestic energy prices, even as risks from global oil markets and domestic insecurity persist.

CardinalStone expects the Naira to appreciate in 2026 as policy reforms, improved FX liquidity, and moderating inflation combine to stabilise the currency.

“We expect Naira to appreciate to a range of N1,350.00/$ – N1,450.00/$ in 2026, supported by improving fundamentals,” the report stated.

Despite projecting a weaker global crude oil market due to oversupply and subdued demand, the firm believes Nigeria’s foreign exchange outlook could remain resilient.

“Elsewhere, due to oversupply and weaker demand, crude oil prices are likely to be lower,” the report read.

Lower oil prices typically pressure Nigeria’s FX earnings, but CardinalStone argues that structural improvements in the FX market could help cushion the impact.

The report also projects that declining crude oil prices, combined with a stronger naira, could lead to lower domestic energy costs in 2026. Prices of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) are expected to ease further.

“The weak oil price, coupled with an improving FX outlook, should further drive down the domestic prices of AGO and PMS,” the report noted.

In addition, CardinalStone highlighted increased competition in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, particularly between local refineries and fuel importers, as a positive development for energy price stability.

“More so, competition in the domestic market between local refineries and importers bodes well for the local energy price outlook,” the report said.

On inflation, CardinalStone projects a gradual moderation in 2026, although it flagged rising insecurity, especially in food-producing regions, as a key downside risk.

“Nonetheless, we note the increased traction of insecurity as a risk factor, especially in food-producing regions, which could limit food supply,” the firm warned.

Taking these factors into account, alongside expected pre-election year spending, CardinalStone forecasts that headline inflation will ease to an average of 15.5 per cent in 2026, before closing the year at 13.9 per cent.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Fidson, Jaiz Bank, Others Keep NGX in Green Territory

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By Dipo Olowookere

A further 0.99 per cent was gained by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday after a positive market breadth index supported by 53 price gainers, which outweighed 23 price losers, representing bullish investor sentiment.

During the trading day, the trio of Jaiz Bank, Fidson, and NPF Microfinance Bank chalked up 10.00 per cent each to sell for N11.00, N86.90, and N6.27, respectively, while Deap Capital appreciated by 9.96 per cent to N7.62, and Mutual Benefits increased by 9.94 per cent to N5.42.

Conversely, Secure Electronic Technology shed 10.00 per cent to trade at N1.62, Sovereign Trust Insurance slipped by 9.73 per cent to N2.32, Ellah Lakes declined by 7.91 per cent to N12.80, International Energy Insurance retreated by 5.56 per cent to N3.40, and ABC Transport moderated by 5.26 per cent to N9.00.

Data from Customs Street revealed that the insurance counter was up by 2.52 per cent, the industrial goods sector grew by 2.28 per cent, the banking space expanded by 1.43 per cent, the consumer goods index gained 1.23 per cent, and the energy industry rose by 0.05 per cent.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 1,916.20 points to 194,989.77 points from 193,073.57 points, and the market capitalisation moved up by N1.230 trillion to N125.164 trillion from Thursday’s N123.934 trillion.

Yesterday, investors traded 820.5 million stocks valued at N28.3 billion in 63,507 deals compared with the 898.5 million stocks worth N38.5 billion executed in 61,953 deals, showing a jump in the number of deals by 2.51 per cent, and a shortfall in the trading volume and value by 8.68 per cent and 26.49 per cent apiece.

Closing the session as the most active equity was Mutual Benefits with 79.0 million units worth N427.1 million, Zenith Bank traded 44.0 million units valued at N3.8 billion, Chams exchanged 43.9 million units for N182.0 million, AIICO Insurance transacted 42.4 million units valued at N179.8 million, and Veritas Kapital sold 36.0 million units worth N90.6 million.

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Economy

Brent Climbs to $71 on Fears of US Military Action Against Iran

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The price of Brent crude oil grade went up by 0.14 per cent or 10 cents to $71.76 per barrel on Friday as investors worried about US military action against Iran, as President Donald Trump presses the Islamic Republic to halt nuclear weapon development.

However, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil grade finished at $66.39 a barrel after going down by 4 cents or 0.06 per cent.

The market awaited developments in the struggle between Iran and the US after President Trump said, “We have to make a meaningful deal, otherwise bad things happen,” referring to Iran.

The main concern for the crude oil market is that military activity will lead to a supply disruption if Iran decides to block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 per cent of the world’s oil consumption passes through that waterway. Conflict in the area could limit oil entering the global market and push up prices.

There is the fear that a potential US military campaign in Iran could disrupt shipping in the Middle East are also adding upward pressure on supertanker rates.

Traders and investors ramped up purchases of call options on Brent crude in recent days, betting on higher prices.

Also supporting oil were reports of falling crude stocks and limited exports in the world’s biggest oil-producing and exporting countries. US crude inventories dropped by 9 million barrels as refining utilisation and exports climbed, an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed on Thursday.

Markets were also considering the impact of ample supply, with talks of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April.

Eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman will meet on March 1. The eight members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to the end of December 2025, equating to about 3 per cent of global demand, and froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption.

Meanwhile, the oil market shrugged off a US Supreme Court decision ruling unconstitutional President Trump’s use of a law to levy tariffs in national emergencies.

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Economy

PENGASSAN Kicks Against Tinubu’s Executive Order on Oil, Gas Revenues

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has faulted the Executive Order signed by President Bola Tinubu on oil and gas revenues.

President Tinubu this week signed the Executive Order, titled The Upstream Petroleum Operations Cost Efficiency Incentives Order (2025), to safeguard and enhance oil and gas revenues for the Federation, curb wasteful spending, eliminate duplicative structures in the sector, and redirect resources for the benefit of the Nigerian people.

However, at a press conference in Abuja, PENGASSAN president, Mr Festus Osifo, argued that the tax incentives granted to oil companies by the President may not help in the reduction of cost if insecurity is not addressed.

“The Executive Order signed by the President yesterday is a direct attack on the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)—specifically Sections 8, 9, and 64,” Mr Osifo said.

“What the President has done is use an Executive Order to set aside a law of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. This is deeply troubling. What signal are we sending to investors and the international community?

“We are effectively telling them that the law of the land can be set aside by a simple executive decree. This is an aberration and should never have happened.”

According to a statement by the presidential spokesperson, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the President signed the EO in pursuance of Section 5 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended).

The Executive Order is anchored on Section 44(3) of the Constitution, which vests ownership, control, and derivative rights in all minerals, mineral oils, and natural gas in, under, and upon any land in Nigeria—including its territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zone—in the Government of the Federation.

The directive seeks to restore the constitutional revenue entitlements of the federal, state, and local governments, which were removed in 2021 by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

According to Mr Onanuga, the PIA created structural and legal channels through which substantial Federation revenues are lost via deductions, sundry charges, and fees.

Under the current PIA framework, NNPC Limited retains 30 per cent of the Federation’s oil revenues as a management fee on Profit Oil and Profit Gas derived from Production Sharing Contracts, Profit Sharing Contracts, and Risk Service Contracts. Additionally, the company retains 20 per cent of its profits for working capital and future investments.

The federal government considers the additional 30 per cent management fee unjustified, as the 20 per cent retained earnings are already sufficient to support NNPC Limited’s functions under these contracts.

Moreover, NNPC Limited also retains another 30 per cent of profit oil and profit gas under the Frontier Exploration Fund, as stipulated in sections 9(4) and (5) of the PIA.

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