Economy
CBN Faults JP Morgan’s $3.7bn Estimate of Nigeria’s Net Reserves

By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has said the recent estimate of the country’s net external reserves by JP Morgan was “out of context”, and assured that there was no cause for panic.
Recall that Business Post earlier reported that the American investment bank said it estimated the value of Nigeria’s FX reserves at $3.7 billion against the $33.8 billion published by the apex bank.
Speaking on Money Line, a programme aired on Africa Independent Television (AIT), the Director of the Monetary Policy Department of CBN, Mr Hassan Mahmud, on Wednesday, said that fluctuations and liabilities encumbrances to the reserves were only natural and normal, adding that the apex bank built the reserves to defend the naira in terms of its value to other currencies.
He questioned the real intent of the report by the rating agency, saying, “Whether to rouse market sentiments, or whether to mislead the public?”
He stressed that the apex bank had tried as much as possible to be transparent in its operations.
Mr Mahmud also disclosed that CBN owned about 80 per cent of funds in reserves mainly to support the local currency in periods of volatility as well as boost the confidence of foreign investors, among others.
He stated, “We also read the JP Morgan numbers in-house, and we didn’t panic over that. That’s not the first time we have seen people and institutions reeling out numbers; they must have their intentions to do that, whether to rouse market sentiments or to mislead the public.
“But, the central bank has, as much as possible, tried to be transparent. What I will say about those numbers is that it is just funny in the sense that number one, reserves like any account balance, is a flow; there are changes that go within it at any particular time.
“Two, even if you have outstanding liabilities, you don’t mark the outstanding liabilities to market on a day and say this is your net balance.
“I can have $20 million in my account, and I owe someone maybe $13 million that is supposed to be paid in 2027; you can’t come in 2023 and say if I remove that $13 million, your money is $7 million or you are having $7 million.
“Now, I am not having $7 million; I am having $20 million. Because before I took a facility of $13 million, I know in the next three years, I will get $17 million, so I can pay you back.”
Mr Mahmud added, “But for you to come and tell me that no, your balance is $7 million and you can’t pay back in three years; it’s just putting it out of context.
“Yes, there are liabilities encumbrances to the reserves, which is normal. The CBN built the reserves to defend the naira in terms of its value to other currencies, and close to 80 per cent of the reserves is CBN’s funds.”
The CBN director also said, “When the federal government or the oil export receipts come to Nigeria, it comes through the central bank. The CBN monetises that to naira, and the federal government spends the naira in the implementation of its budget.
“So, that dollar component sits with the central bank, and the purpose of the dollar component, one, is to build the confidence of the international community in the capability of the central bank to meet its trade commitment, and so you will see measurements around what months of imports either goods and services or goods only can your reserves cover?
“That gives some confidence to foreign investors trading with Nigerian investors in terms of import and export. Two, in the event that, for example, we have a float-managed exchange rate regime – in the event that the value of your currency is significantly depreciating or appreciating or whatever direction it is going – the central bank has the firepower to intervene in the market such that you bring the price to your expected or optimal equilibrium rate.”
Mr Mahmud further stated, “So, that is what the reserve is meant for – the reserve is not meant for just trading – in the event that there are also shortfalls in the build-up of those reserves, you can take a swap or other engagements that are legally allowed by the CBN Act over the short period of time.
“The exchange rate, like we mentioned several times, is also part of the tools to address price stability, including leading to inflation and all that.
“So, the reserves are tools we can comfortably use to build investors’ confidence in the Nigerian economy and also build the sovereign confidence in terms of our exposures to multilaterals the CBN is owing and service its debts.
“So, people do all those calculations. Okay, for example, we have some government loans that are for 10 years, and there is annual service interest that you are supposed to pay to amortise those loans.”
He stressed, “If you come today and sum up the entire facility, maybe $20 billion, and you say the federal government owes $20 billion for the past 10 years; if you remove that $20 billion from the $33 billion, you have only N3 billion to service your debt, that’s wrong because there’s going to be inflows; the federal government is going to earn some monies.
“I don’t know how they did their calculations, and I don’t have any information about that, but we also saw those numbers that came out.”
Economy
Weaker Naira Shrinks Airtel Africa 2025 Revenue by 30.4% to $4.955bn

By Adedapo Adesanya
Top telecommunication service provider, Airtel Africa Plc, saw its revenue fall by 30.4 per cent to $4.955 billion, significantly impacted by derivative and foreign exchange losses, primarily in Nigeria.
According to a report released to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Thursday, the Profit After Tax (PAT) closed at $328 million for its year ended March 31, 2025, marking a return from an $89 million loss in the preceding year.
Nigeria’s persistent currency depreciation led to declines across all segments. Airtel saw its voice verticals fall by 36.9 per cent year-on-year, data fell by 26.2 per cent, and other services dropped 17.4 per cent year-on-year.
However, in constant currency, revenue grew by 36.4 per cent growth year-on-year, reflecting growth in voice (24.3 per cent in the same period), data (44.5 per cent), and other (58.7 per cent) revenue segments.
The revenue growth was driven by a 4.7 per cent increase in the total subscriber base to 53.32 million (with 1.17 million net additions in the last quarter of the company’s 2025 calender) and strong demand for data services, with data usage per subscriber rising 33.4 per cent year-on-year to 8.4 GB per month.
Airtel’s $4.955 billion grew 21.1 per cent in constant currency but declined by 0.5 per cent in reported currency as currency devaluation impacted reported revenues.
“Strong execution and the tariff adjustments in Nigeria contributed to a further quarter of accelerating growth, with Q4’25 revenue growth of 23.2% in constant currency, and 17.8% in reported currency as currency headwinds eased,” Airtel Africa said.
Across the Group, mobile services revenue grew by 19.6 per cent in constant currency, driven by voice revenue growth of 10.6 per cent and data revenue growth of 30.5 per cent and mobile money revenue grew by 29.9 per cent in constant currency.
EBITDA, which stands for Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortisation, and is used to access a company’s operating performance, declined by 5.1 per cent in reported currency to $2.3 billion with underlying EBITDA margins of 46.5 per cent compared to 48.8 per cent in the prior year, impacted by increased fuel prices and the lower contribution of Nigeria to the Group.
However, following a more stable operating environment and benefits from its cost efficiency programme, underlying EBITDA margins have expanded from 45.3 per cent in the first quarter of 2025 to 47.3 per cent in the last quarter of 2025.
Airtel Africa’s customer base grew by 8.7 per cent to 166.1 million, with its focus on digital inclusion supporting a 4.3 per cent increase in smartphone penetration to 44.8 per cent.
Data customers increased by 14.1 per cent to 73.4million, with data usage per customer increasing by 30.4 per cent to 7.0 GB, supporting data Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) growth of 15.4 per cent in constant currency.
Airtel Money agent network which offers enhanced digital offerings and expanded use cases contributed to a 17.3 per cent increase in mobile money subscribers to 44.6 million and a 11.4 per cent growth in constant currency ARPU.
Speaking on the performance, the chief executive of Airtel Africa, Mr Sunil Taldar, said, “We have reported another strong operating performance as our strategy continues to deliver against the significant opportunity that exists across our markets. The focus on our refreshed strategy has seen continued investment in the network while also driving improvements in our digital platforms and offerings to further enhance the customer experience.”
“An improving operating environment and focused execution contributed to strong momentum in our financial results with constant currency revenue growth peaking at 23.2% in Q4’25. Part of this acceleration in the last quarter has also been driven by the Nigerian tariff adjustments,” he added.
Looking ahead, he said – “We are making significant progress in our preparations for the Airtel Money IPO and remain committed to this objective.
“However, we are also mindful of evolving market conditions. Therefore, subject to these conditions, we anticipate a listing event in the first half of calendar year 2026.”
“The recent stability in the operating environment is encouraging, however we remain conscious of global developments that may impact our business. We will remain focused on delivering our strategy to transform the lives of our customers and support economic prosperity across our markets,” he added.
Economy
Nigerian Manufacturers Lament Worsening Condition of Manufacturing Sector

By Adedapo Adesanya
The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) has decried the worsening condition of manufacturing in Nigeria’s economy as the sector delivered a 1.38 per cent growth in 2024.
The group has, therefore, called on stakeholders to reevaluate their service delivery systems by adopting a forward-looking strategies to aligned with the nation’s evolving industrial sector.
The Director-General of MAN, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadir, speaking during a business luncheon on Thursday in Lagos, submitted that the move would would help to address economic pressures.
The business luncheon, organised by the Apapa Branch of the MAN, is its 14th edition, and was themed Delivering Quintessential Membership Service in an Era of Economic Downturn.
Mr Ajayi-Kadir said the event was both a call to everyone desiring a more supportive environment and a strategic direction that all members were required to align with, noting that quintessential service entailed delivering service at the highest standard, marked by professionalism, excellence, empathy and responsiveness.
According to him, in spite of the current macroeconomic realities plaguing global business operations, manufacturers must aim to exceed expectations.
“An internal survey by MAN reports that unsold inventory rose sharply from N1.1 trillion in 2023 to N2.1 trillion in 2024.
“You can imagine a subsector or a sector, depending on how you look at it, having two trillion worth of unsold inventory.
“Additionally, challenges related to transport and logistics, infrastructure, particularly around major ports and industrial corridors, make the operating environment unconducive for manufacturing.
“The impact of these challenges is evident in the sector’s capacity utilisation and its contribution to GDP , which have hovered around 5.5 per cent and 10 per cent respectively, over the past 12 months,” he said.
Mr Ajayi-Kadir expressed concern that in spite of Nigeria’s abundant resources and industrial potential, the manufacturing sector’s growth was as low as 1.40 per cent in 2023.
He said that the growth declined further to 1.38 per cent in 2024, outlining new initiatives, including the environment and green manufacturing unit, international cooperation and advocacy division and membership satisfaction monitoring unit, as strategic responses to emerging industry needs.
The MAN chief reminded the stakeholders of the association’s “MAN of the Future” vision, which he said was a transformative agenda built on six core pillars, which he listed as relentless innovation, purposeful and deliberate engagement, transformational leadership, passion for growth, oneness and empathy, and breakthrough performance environment.
Mr Ajayi-Kadir said that the goal was to significantly boost the profitability of the members’investment, grow the economy, and improve the well-being of Nigerians.
“The MAN of the future is a transformative journey that requires a shift in mindset, operations, leadership, and accountability in our responsibilities,” he said.
On his part, the Chairman of MAN, Apapa Branch, Mr Raphael Danilola, expressed concern about the unpredictable rise in production costs, particularly for manufacturers operating under the Band-A electricity tariff.
Mr Danilola said that many businesses were struggling to pay the bills, decrying the growing trend among regulatory agencies, particularly in the state that prioritised revenue generation over their oversight functions.
According to the chairman, there are instances where manufacturers faced multiple levies, taxes and overlapping compliance demands from proliferation of Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs).
“Manufacturers across all sectors have already borne the brunt of regulatory and economic pressures.
“At this point, there is fear of further decline. What is urgently required is a coordinated effort to reverse the trend,” he said.
Mr Danilola urged manufacturers to reassess their strategies, strengthen cooperation and become more deliberate in policy engagement, calling on them to collaborate in defending their businesses against policies suffocating the industry, adding that members must become more actively involved in defending the sector’s interests.
Economy
We Are Not Competing With NNPC—Dangote Declares

By Dipo Olowookere
The president of the Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, has said his Lagos-based refinery is not in competition with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Speaking during a visit to the headquarters of the NNPC in Abuja on Thursday, the businessman said the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals (DPRP) and the NNPC are business partners and are not at war as being insinuated.
He promised to collaborate with the new management team of the state-owned oil agency led by Mr Bashir Bayo Ojulari to drive economic growth in Nigeria.
“There is no competition between us, we are not here to compete with NNPC Ltd. NNPC is part and parcel of our business, and we are also part of NNPC. This is an era of co-operation between the two organisations,” Mr Dangote was quoted as saying in a statement issued by the NNPC spokesperson, Mr Olufemi Soneye.
Mr Dangote explained that he visited the NNPC tas part of ongoing efforts to promote mutually beneficial partnerships and foster healthy competition in the energy landscape in the country to boost Nigeria’s energy security and advance shared prosperity for Nigerians.
The richest man in Africa also congratulated Mr Ojulari and the Senior Management Team on their “well-deserved appointments,” acknowledging the enormity of the responsibility ahead.
In his remarks, the chief executive of NNPC assured Dangote of a mutually beneficial partnership anchored on healthy competition and productive collaboration, highlighting the exceptional calibre of talent he met in the organisation, describing the workforce as dedicated, highly skilled, and hardworking professionals who are consistently keen on delivering value for Nigeria.
Expressing the company’s readiness to build a legacy of national prosperity through innovation and shared purpose, Mr Ojulari said NNPC would sustain its collaboration with the Dangote Group especially where there is commercial advantage for Nigeria. It had been speculated that there is a price war between Dangote Refinery and the NNPC, especially in terms of the retail price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol.
It was intense under the leadership of the immediate past chief executive of the NNPC, Mr Mele Kyari, leading to the suspension of the Naira-for-crude sale agreement with Dangote Refinery and other private refiners.
However, the federal government announced the reinstatement of the deal last month after Mr Kyari was removed from office a few days earlier.
The NNPC was initially meant to be a shareholder in Dangote Refinery, but the deal later fell through.
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