Economy
CBN Foresees Inflation Cooling from May 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is forecasting an ease in inflation from May 2024 but expects the average prices of goods and services to peak at 32.63 per cent in March 2024.
The Deputy Governor of the bank for Economic Policy Directorate, Mr Muhammad Sani Abdullahi, said this at the CITI-CEEMA Macro Conference held on Wednesday in London.
Nigeria’s inflation rose to 31.70 per cent in February 2024 from 29.90 per cent in January 2024.
Mr Abdullahi attributed the spike in inflation to three major factors: escalated energy costs, the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, and ongoing insecurity concerns.
“Headline inflation is expected to rise to 32.63 per cent in March 2024, due to high energy prices. Lingering impact of fuel subsidy removal, resulting in an increase in the cost of household utilities, transportation and production costs.
“Depreciation of the Naira resulting from the market-determined exchange rate policy is likely to have a passthrough effect on domestic prices.
“Impact of insecurity on food production, the winding down of the harvest season, and high cost of farm input could impact negatively food prices,” he said.
The CBN, however, anticipates a turnaround, with inflation expected to start its downward trajectory beginning in May 2024.
This optimism is based on a series of strategic measures to tackle rising inflation. Among these is the adoption of an inflation-targeting framework, deploying more active communication strategies, and shifting towards a tighter monetary policy stance.
The inflationary surge expected in the next two months is likely to happen despite tightened monetary policy by the Central Bank.
At the last Monetary Policy Meeting (MPC) in February, the apex bank increased the benchmark interest rate by 400 basis points to a record 22.75 per cent. The lender also increased the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) to 45 per cent from the prior 32.5 per cent.
Furthermore, adjustments have been made to the asymmetric corridor around the MPR to +100/-700 basis points from +100/-300 basis points, signalling a robust stance on managing inflation expectations.
Justifying reasons for the hike, the CBN Governor, Mr Yemi Cardoso, explained that members considered various scenarios including whether to hold or hike policy and concluded that inflation could become more persistent in the medium term and pose more regulatory issues if not well-anchored.
By all indications, there are signals that more rate hikes will happen at the meeting scheduled to start on Monday, March 25.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited has revealed that Nigeria’s crude total oil and condensate production stood at 1.61.
This was contained in its Monthly Report Summary for April 2025 which contained key operational and financial metrics.
According to the state oil firm, this was 3.2 per cent higher than 1.56 million barrels of oil per day recorded in March.
Giving a breakdown of the monthly production figures, total crude oil and condensate production was out at 1.67 million barrels of oil per day in January, 1.62 million barrels of oil per day in February, 1.56 million barrels per day in March and 1.61 million barrels of oil per day in the month under review.
Meanwhile the country’s natural gas production reached 7.35 billion standard cubic feet per day in April.
A breakdown showed that in January, the production stood at 7.12 billion standard cubic feet, it dropped to 6.62 billion standard cubic feet in February and rose to 6.92 billion standard cubic feet, and 7.35 billion standard cubic feet in April.
The NNPC clarified that all crude oil and gas figures are provisional and based solely on NNPC Limited’s data, adding that the figures excluded production by independent operators as reported by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
On the financial part, the NNPC generated revenue up to N5.89 trillion with a Profit After Tax of N748 billion.
The national oil company report also showed that statutory payments for the period January to March 2025 totaled N4.23 trillion.
In terms of supply NNPC Retail Limited (NRL) Stations’ petrol availability was at 54 per cent.
Giving updates on the ongoing projects— the NNPC said the OB3 pipeline project has achieved 95 per cent completion, while the Ajaokuta–Kaduna–Kano (AKK) pipeline has reached 70 per cent completion as of the review month.
It added that upstream pipeline availability was recorded at 97 per cent.
On its upcoming Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in 2025, the NNPC disclosed that the Nkori Development (OML 102), crude oil production expansion project (OML 29), gas development projects (OMLs 40, 42) and Brass Fertilizer (Financial Close) will all be done in the fourth quarter of the year.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded its first loss in five consecutive sessions, declining by 0.33 per cent on Wednesday, June 11.
At the close of trading activities, the market capitalisation of the bourse declined by N6.45 billion to finish at N1.954 trillion compared with the preceding day’s N1.960 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) decreased by 11.01 points to settle at 3,337.24 points, in contrast to Tuesday’s closing value of 3,348.25 points.
Share prices of three companies on the trading platform recorded movements at midweek, according to data obtained byBusiness Post.
Geo-Fluids Plc was up by 31 Kobo to end at N3.50 per unit versus the preceding day’s N3.19 per unit, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc expanded by 13 Kobo to end at N28.13 per share compared with the previous day’s N28.00 per share.
On the flip side, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc further depreciated by N4.31 yesterday to quote at N74.37 per unit versus the preceding day’s N78.68 per unit.
Yesterday, the volume of securities surged by 1,232.6 per cent to 3.3 million units from the 248,882 units recorded a day earlier, the value of securities went up by 31.8 per cent to N12.9 million from N9.8 million, and the number of deals increased by 46.7 per cent to 44 deals from the 30 deals posted in the preceding trading session.
At the close of business, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 536.9 million units worth N524.8 million, trailed by Air Liquide Plc with 507.2 million valued at N4.2 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 268.4 million units sold for N475.6 million.
Also, Okitipupa Plc maintained its position as the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 153.7 million units traded for N4.9 billion, followed by Air Liquide Plc with 507.2 million units worth N4.2 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 38.9 million units valued at N1.6 billion.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Between January 2025 and March 2025, Nigeria improved its trade surplus by about 52 per cent to N5.17 trillion from the N3.4 trillion recorded between October 2024 and December 2024.
This information was made known to the public by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its Foreign Trade in Goods Statistics Report for Q1’25 released on Wednesday.
The agency disclosed that on a year-on-year basis, trade surplus expanded by 17.5 per cent from the N4.4 trillion achieved in the first quarter of last year.
According to the NBS, the total merchandise trade posted by Nigeria in Q1 of 2025 was N36.024 trillion, higher than the N33.92 trillion recorded in the corresponding period of 2024 by 6.19 per cent, but lower than the N36.6 trillion reported in the preceding quarter by 1.58 per cent.
It stated that the value of total imports stood at N15.42 trillion in the first quarter of this year, 4.59 per cent higher than the N14.75 trillion posted in the same period of 2024 and 7.02 per cent lower than the N16.59 trillion recorded in the last quarter of 2024.
Also, the value of exports achieved in the first quarter of 2025 was N20.59 trillion, higher than the N19.17 trillion posted in the same period of last year by 7.42 per cent, and 2.92 per cent higher than the N20.00 trillion recorded in the previous quarter, with India, the Netherlands, the United States, France, and Spain as the top five trading export partners of the country.
“The merchandise trade balance for Q1 2025 remained positive at N5.17 trillion indicating an increase of 52 percent compared to the value recorded in the preceding quarter,” it said.
“Further analysis shows that Nigeria’s exports trade continued to be dominated by crude oil in the first quarter of 2025 valued at N12.95 trillion representing 62.89 per cent of total exports while the value of non-crude oil exports stood at N7.64 trillion accounting for 37.11 per cent of total exports; of which non-oil products contributed N3.16 trillion or 15.38 percent of total exports,” the stats office said.
It disclosed that, “China remains Nigeria’s highest trading partner on the import side in the first quarter of 2025, followed by India, United States of America, the Netherlands, and the United Arab Emirate.
“The most traded commodities imported during the quarter were, Gas oil, Motor spirit ordinary, Petroleum oils and oils obtained from bituminous minerals, crude, Cane sugar meant for sugar refinery, and Durum wheat (Not in seeds).”
It was further revealed that the most exported commodities included crude oil, liquefied natural gas, other petroleum gases in a gaseous state, Urea, whether or not in aqueous solution, and Standard quality Cocoa beans.
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