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Economy

CBN May Change Monetary Policy Stance—FSDH

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By Dipo Olowookere

According to FSDH Research, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may soon change its monetary policy stance if it follows the opinion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2017 edition, noted that it expects the inflation rate in Nigeria in 2017 and 2018 to remain elevated at double-digit levels. This is based on its assumption of the persistent effects of past inflationary shocks coming from sharp currency depreciations (including the parallel market exchange rate), higher electricity and fuel prices, and an accommodative monetary policy going forward.

The Fund expects an average inflation rate of 16.3% in 2017 and 14.8% in 2018. At the moment, the CBN adopts a restrictive monetary policy in order to curb the high inflation rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

The inflation rate in Nigeria declined for seven consecutive months to stand at 16.01% in August 2017.

FSDH Research forecasts that it will drop marginally to 15.96% in September 2017.

The IMF projects a growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.8% and 1.9% in Nigeria in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The growth is based on improved oil production and a strengthened agricultural sector.

The IMF expects an average Real GDP growth of 1.6% between 2017 and 2021 while it expects an average population growth of 2.75% between the periods. The GDP growth will not be sufficient to improve the wellbeing of the populace.

According to the IMF, the medium term risks to growth in Nigeria include concerns about policy implementation, market segmentation in the foreign exchange (FX) market and banking system fragilities.

The Fund also predicts a 42% increase in public debt from N18.06trn in 2016 to N25.59trn in 2017 and a further increase to N54.96trn in 2021.

The faster growth in public debt than the growth in GDP (at current prices) will result in a consistent increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio between 2017 and 2021.

According to the IMF, the public debt-to-GDP ratio will increase to 25% in 2021 from 18% in 2016.

FSDH Research, in its Weekly Insights, said although this is below the target of 40% the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) sets for Nigeria, the burden of the interest payments on the loan may retard Nigeria’s growth potential except there are concentrated efforts to grow revenue.

On the global scene, the global upswing in economic activities that started in the second half of 2016 continues to strengthen. The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018.

Notable increases in investments, trade and industrial production, as well as strengthening business and consumers’ confidence should support the global growth. The IMF identified the medium term risks to global growth to include a more rapid and sizeable tightening of global financial conditions; financial turmoil in emerging market economies; and geopolitical tensions.

The IMF expects oil prices (a simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil) to average US$50.3 per barrel in 2017, an increase from the US$43 per barrel in 2016. The expected increases in global activity and higher oil prices will have a positive effect on the Nigerian economy going forward.

Although FSDH Research believes the IMF growth forecast for the Nigerian economy is conservative, the FGN must intensify efforts to implement policies that will stimulate investments in the Nigerian economy. This is necessary to accelerate inclusive growth.

Friendly policies in agro-allied industries, agriculture, telecommunications, power, solid minerals, real estate and manufacturing are important to jumpstart the economy.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

LCCI Raises Eyebrow Over N15.52trn Debt Servicing Plan in 2026 Budget

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has noted that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing in the 2026 budget remains a significant fiscal burden.

LCCI Director-General, Mrs Chinyere Almona, said this on Tuesday in Lagos via a statement in reaction to the nation’s 2026 budget of N58.18 trillion, hinging the success of the 2026 budget on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

She noted that the budget was a timely shift from macroeconomic stabilisation to growth acceleration, reflecting growing confidence in the economy.

She lauded its emphasis on production-oriented spending, with capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion, representing 45 per cent of total outlays, and significantly outweighing non-debt recurrent expenditure of N15.25 trillion.

According to Mrs Almona, this composition supports infrastructure development, industrial expansion, and productivity growth.

However, she explained that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing underscored the need for stricter borrowing discipline, enhanced revenue efficiency, and expanded public-private partnerships to safeguard investments that promote growth.

She added that a further review of the 2026 budget revealed relatively optimistic macroeconomic assumptions that may pose fiscal risks.

“The oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, although lower than the $75.00 benchmark in the 2025 budget, appears optimistic when compared with the 2025 average price of about $69.60 per barrel and current prices around $60 per barrel.

“This raises downside risks to oil revenue, especially since 35.6 per cent of the total projected revenue is expected to come from oil receipts.

“Similarly, the oil production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day is significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.49 million barrels per day.

“Achieving this may be challenging without substantial improvements in security, infrastructure integrity, and sector investment,” she said.

Mrs Almona said the exchange rate assumption of N1,512 to the Dollar, compared with N1,500 in the 2025 budget and about N1,446 per Dollar at the end of November, suggests expectations of a mild depreciation.

She said while this may support Naira-denominated revenue, it also increases the cost of imports, debt servicing, and inflation management, with broader macroeconomic implications.

The LCCI DG added that the inflation projection of 16.5 per cent in 2026, up from 15.8 per cent in the 2025 budget and a current rate of about 14.45 per cent, appeared optimistic, particularly in a pre-election year.

She also expressed concern about Nigeria’s historically weak budget implementation capacity, likely to be further strained by the combined operation of multiple budget cycles within a single year.

Looking ahead, Mrs Almona identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and human capital development as key drivers of growth in 2026.

She said that unlocking these sectors would require decisive execution—scaling irrigation and agro-value chains, reducing power and logistics costs for manufacturers, and aligning education and skills development with private-sector needs.

The LCCI head stressed the need to resolve issues surrounding the Naira for crude, increase the supply of oil to local refineries to boost local refining capacity and conserve the substantial foreign exchange used for fuel imports.

“Overall, the 2026 Budget presents a credible opportunity for Nigeria to transition from recovery to expansion.

“Its success will depend less on the size of allocations and more on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

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Economy

Customs Street Chalks up 0.12% on Santa Claus Rally

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By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited witnessed Santa Claus rally on Wednesday after it closed higher by 0.12 per cent.

Strong demand for Nigerian stocks lifted the All-Share Index (ASI) by 185.70 points during the pre-Christmas trading session to 153,539.83 points from 153,354.13 points.

In the same vein, the market capitalisation expanded at midweek by N118 billion to N97.890 trillion from the preceding day’s N97.772 trillion.

Investor sentiment on Customs Street remained bullish after closing with 36 appreciating equities and 22 depreciating equities, indicating a positive market breadth index.

Guinness Nigeria chalked up 9.98 per cent to trade at N318.60, Austin Laz improved by 9.97 per cent to N3.20, International Breweries expanded by 9.85 per cent to N14.50, Transcorp Hotels rose by 9.83 per cent to N170.90, and Aluminium Extrusion grew by 9.73 per cent to N16.35.

On the flip side, Legend Internet lost 9.26 per cent to close at N4.90, AXA Mansard shrank by 7.14 per cent to N13.00, Jaiz Bank declined by 5.45 per cent to N4.51, MTN Nigeria weakened by 5.21 per cent to N504.00, and NEM Insurance crashed by 4.74 per cent to N24.10.

Yesterday, a total of 1.8 billion shares valued at N30.1 billion exchanged hands in 19,372 deals versus the 677.4 billion shares worth N20.8 billion traded in 27,589 deals in the previous session, implying a slump in the number of deals by 29.78 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 165.72 per cent and 44.71 per cent apiece.

Abbey Mortgage Bank was the most active equity for the day after it sold 1.1 billion units worth N7.1 billion, Sterling Holdings traded 127.1 million units valued at N895.9 million, Custodian Investment exchanged 115.0 million units for N4.5 billion, First Holdco transacted 40.9 million units valued at N2.2 billion, and Access Holdings traded 38.2 million units worth N783.3 million.

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Economy

Yuletide: Rite Foods Reiterates Commitment to Quality, Innovation

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian food and beverage company, Rite Foods Limited, has extended warm Yuletide greetings to Nigerians as families and communities worldwide come together to celebrate the Christmas season and usher in a new year filled with hope and renewed possibilities.

In a statement, Rite Foods encouraged consumers to savour these special occasions with its wide range of quality brands, including the 13 variants of Bigi Carbonated Soft Drinks, premium Bigi Table Water, Sosa Fruit Drink in its refreshing flavours, the Fearless Energy Drink, and its tasty sausage rolls — all produced in a world-class facility with modern technology and global best practices.

Speaking on the season, the Managing Director of Rite Foods Limited, Mr Seleem Adegunwa, said the company remains deeply committed to enriching the lives of consumers beyond refreshment. According to him, the Yuletide period underscores the values of generosity, unity, and gratitude, which resonate strongly with the company’s philosophy.

“Christmas is a season that reminds us of the importance of giving, togetherness, and gratitude. At Rite Foods, we are thankful for the continued trust of Nigerians in our brands. This season strengthens our resolve to consistently deliver quality products that bring joy to everyday moments while contributing positively to society,” Mr Adegunwa stated.

He noted that the company’s steady progress in brand acceptance, operational excellence, and responsible business practices reflects a culture of continuous improvement, innovation, and responsiveness to consumer needs. These efforts, he said, have further strengthened Rite Foods’ position as a proudly Nigerian brand with growing relevance and impact across the country.

Mr Adegunwa reaffirmed that Rite Foods will continue to invest in research and development, efficient production processes, and initiatives that support communities, while maintaining quality standards across its product portfolio.

“As the year comes to a close, Rite Foods Limited wishes Nigerians a joyful Christmas celebration and a prosperous New Year filled with peace, progress, and shared success.”

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