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Economy

CBN May Change Monetary Policy Stance—FSDH

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cbn benchmark interest rates

By Dipo Olowookere

According to FSDH Research, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) may soon change its monetary policy stance if it follows the opinion of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The IMF, in its World Economic Outlook (WEO) October 2017 edition, noted that it expects the inflation rate in Nigeria in 2017 and 2018 to remain elevated at double-digit levels. This is based on its assumption of the persistent effects of past inflationary shocks coming from sharp currency depreciations (including the parallel market exchange rate), higher electricity and fuel prices, and an accommodative monetary policy going forward.

The Fund expects an average inflation rate of 16.3% in 2017 and 14.8% in 2018. At the moment, the CBN adopts a restrictive monetary policy in order to curb the high inflation rate and maintain stability in the foreign exchange market.

The inflation rate in Nigeria declined for seven consecutive months to stand at 16.01% in August 2017.

FSDH Research forecasts that it will drop marginally to 15.96% in September 2017.

The IMF projects a growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 0.8% and 1.9% in Nigeria in 2017 and 2018 respectively. The growth is based on improved oil production and a strengthened agricultural sector.

The IMF expects an average Real GDP growth of 1.6% between 2017 and 2021 while it expects an average population growth of 2.75% between the periods. The GDP growth will not be sufficient to improve the wellbeing of the populace.

According to the IMF, the medium term risks to growth in Nigeria include concerns about policy implementation, market segmentation in the foreign exchange (FX) market and banking system fragilities.

The Fund also predicts a 42% increase in public debt from N18.06trn in 2016 to N25.59trn in 2017 and a further increase to N54.96trn in 2021.

The faster growth in public debt than the growth in GDP (at current prices) will result in a consistent increase in the public debt-to-GDP ratio between 2017 and 2021.

According to the IMF, the public debt-to-GDP ratio will increase to 25% in 2021 from 18% in 2016.

FSDH Research, in its Weekly Insights, said although this is below the target of 40% the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) sets for Nigeria, the burden of the interest payments on the loan may retard Nigeria’s growth potential except there are concentrated efforts to grow revenue.

On the global scene, the global upswing in economic activities that started in the second half of 2016 continues to strengthen. The IMF forecasts global economic growth of 3.6% in 2017 and 3.7% in 2018.

Notable increases in investments, trade and industrial production, as well as strengthening business and consumers’ confidence should support the global growth. The IMF identified the medium term risks to global growth to include a more rapid and sizeable tightening of global financial conditions; financial turmoil in emerging market economies; and geopolitical tensions.

The IMF expects oil prices (a simple average of prices of UK Brent, Dubai Fateh, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil) to average US$50.3 per barrel in 2017, an increase from the US$43 per barrel in 2016. The expected increases in global activity and higher oil prices will have a positive effect on the Nigerian economy going forward.

Although FSDH Research believes the IMF growth forecast for the Nigerian economy is conservative, the FGN must intensify efforts to implement policies that will stimulate investments in the Nigerian economy. This is necessary to accelerate inclusive growth.

Friendly policies in agro-allied industries, agriculture, telecommunications, power, solid minerals, real estate and manufacturing are important to jumpstart the economy.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Investors Lose N73bn as Bears Tighten Grip on Stock Exchange

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Nigeria's stock exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

The bears consolidated their dominance on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Wednesday, inflicting an additional 0.09 per cent cut on the market.

At midweek, the market capitalisation of the domestic stock exchange went down by N73 billion to N124.754 trillion from the preceding day’s N124.827 trillion, and the All-Share Index (ASI) slipped by 114.32 points to 194,370.20 points from 194,484.52 points.

A look at the sectoral performance showed that only the consumer goods index closed in green, gaining 1.19 per cent due to buying pressure.

However, sustained profit-taking weakened the insurance space by 3.79 per cent, the banking index slumped by 2.07 per cent, the energy counter went down by 0.24 per cent, and the industrial goods sector shrank by 0.22 per cent.

Business Post reports that 25 equities ended on the gainers’ chart, and 54 equities finished on the losers’ table, representing a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.

RT Briscoe lost 10.00 per cent to sell for N10.35, ABC Transport crashed by 10.00 per cent to N6.75, SAHCO depreciated by 9.98 per cent to N139.35, Haldane McCall gave up 9.93 per cent to trade at N3.99, and Vitafoam Nigeria decreased by 9.93 per cent to N112.50.

Conversely, Jaiz Bank gained 9.95 per cent to settle at N14.03, Okomu Oil appreciated by 9.93 per cent to N1,765.00, Trans-nationwide Express chalked up 9.77 per cent to close at N2.36, Fortis Global Insurance moved up by 9.72 per cent to 79 Kobo, and Champion Breweries rose by 5.39 per cent to N17.60.

Yesterday, 1.4 billion shares worth N46.2 billion were transacted in 70,222 deals compared with the 1.1 billion shares valued at N53.4 billion traded in 72,218 deals a day earlier, implying a rise in the trading volume by 27.27 per cent, and a decline in the trading value and number of deals by 13.48 per cent and 2.76 per cent, respectively.

Fortis Global Insurance ended the session as the busiest stock after trading 193.7 million units for N152.7 million, Zenith Bank transacted 120.7 million units worth N11.1 billion, Japaul exchanged 114.8 million units valued at N407.0 million, Ellah Lakes sold 98.4 million units worth N999.2 million, and Access Holdings traded 63.1 million units valued at N1.7 billion.

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Economy

Naira Extends Losing Streak, Falls to N1,356/$1 at NAFEX

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NAFEX

By Adedapo Adesanya

A 74 Kobo or 0.05 per cent decline was recorded by the Naira against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Wednesday, February 25, trading at N1,356.11/$1 compared with the N1,355.37/$1 it was traded on Tuesday.

The Nigerian currency also further depreciated against the Pound Sterling during the session in the official market by N6.70 to settle at N1,834.96/£1 versus the preceding day’s rate of N1,828.26/£1, and against the Euro, it tumbled by N4.94 to quote at N1,598.59/€1 compared with the previous session’s N1,596.36/€1.

In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira lost N6 against the Dollar at the GTBank forex desk to close at N1,367/$1, in contrast to N1,361/$1 it was exchanged a day earlier, and in the parallel market, it traded flat at N1,365/$1.

The continuation of the decline of the local currency has been tied to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) buying US Dollars from the market to slow the rapid rise of the Naira.

The apex bank bought about $189.80 million to reduce excess Dollar supply and control how fast the Naira was gaining value.

The monetary policy committee (MPC) of the CBN on Tuesday reduced interest rates by 50 basis points to 26.50 per cent from 27 per cent after inflation eased in January 2026, a move analysts say is the best not to unsettle FX market, especially the Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI_ inflows which have anchored much of the recent supply and weakened the recently restored monetary credibility.

“The 50bps move therefore provides a clear directional signal while still keeping overall monetary conditions restrictive, indicating the start of a shallow, data-dependent easing cycle rather than a radical shift to accommodative policy,” said Mr Kayode Akindele, CEO, Coronation Capital and Head, Coronation Research in an email.

As for the cryptocurrency market, benchmarked tokens rebounded in double digits, driven by bearish positioning and thin liquidity rather than by clear fundamental catalysts, with Cardano (ADA) growing by 16.2 per cent to $0.3015, and Solana (SOL) appreciating by 12.3 per cent to $88.66.

Further, Ethereum (ETH) surged 11.9 per cent to $2,076.66, Litecoin (LTC) expanded by 11.5 per cent to $57.15, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 11.5 per cent to $0.1025, Binance Coin (BNB) advanced by 7.6 per cent to $629.76, Ripple (XRP) jumped 7.2 per cent to $1.45, and Bitcoin (BTC) added 6.4 per cent to sell for $68,136.72, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.

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Economy

Oil Prices Stabilise as US Crude Build Counters Supply Disruption Threat

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Crude Oil Prices

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices settled largely unchanged on Wednesday amid a build in American crude stockpile and the threat to oil supply from potential military conflict between the US and Iran.

Brent futures chalked up 8 cents to trade at $70.85 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures settled lost 21 cents to close at $65.42 per barrel.

Crude oil inventories in the US increased by 16 million barrels during the week ending February 20, according to new data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday.

The decrease brings commercial stockpiles to 435.8 million barrels according to government data, which is still 3% below the five-year average for this time of year.

The EIA’s data release follows figures by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that were released a day earlier, which reported that crude oil inventories rose by a massive 11.4 million barrels in the period.

The market continued to weigh the possibility extended conflict could disrupt supplies from Iran, the third-biggest crude producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other countries in the Middle East.

US President Donald Trump verbally attacked Iran, saying he would not allow a country he described as the world’s biggest sponsor of terrorism to have a nuclear weapon.

This comes as US envoys are due to meet an Iranian delegation for a third round of talks on Thursday in Geneva, Switzerland.

Reuters reported that OPEC+ is considering raising its oil output by 137,000 barrels per day for April to end a three-month pause in production increases. This is as the group prepares for peak summer demand and tensions between the US and Iran boost prices.

Eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – meet on March 1.

An increase of 137,000 barrels per day for April would be the same as those agreed for December, November and October last year.

In a separate development, Saudi Arabia has activated a plan for a short-term oil output and export surge in case a US strike on Iran disrupts flows from the Middle East, said two sources familiar with the Saudi plan.

Tariff uncertainty also further worried investors after President Trump’s temporary global tariff of 10 per cent took effect on Tuesday after the Supreme Court’s sweeping ruling last week. He later said the levy would be 15 per cent, but it was unclear when and if it would apply.

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