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CPPE Forecasts 4.5% GDP Growth for Nigeria in 2026

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has forecast that Nigeria’s economy may grow as much as 4.5 per cent in 2026 following major gains in macroeconomic stability in 2025, which could pave way for stronger growth.

The chief executive of CPPE, Mr Muda Yusuf, disclosed this in a statement while presenting the organisation’s review of the economy in 2025 as well as its outlook for 2026.

He noted that the country recorded gains especially in exchange rate management inflation and business confidence this year, adding that 2025 provided a strong foundation of stability and with sustained reforms and improved security, 2026 could witness more robust growth and better living standards.

According to him, the most notable achievement in 2025 was the stability of the Naira which traded largely between N1,440 and N1,500 to the Dollar.

He said that this stability boosted business confidence, reduced imported inflation, and made pricing and investment planning more predictable.

He added that inflation also dropped sharply from 24.48 per cent in January, to about 14.45 per cent in November, strengthened by improved supply conditions and reduced logistics pressures.

According to him, prices of many food items and imported goods fell during the year, leading to improved consumer sentiment.

Mr Yusuf said that business confidence also strengthened throughout the year, adding that, many companies which recorded losses in 2024 returned to profitability in 2025.

On fiscal performance he said that federal government revenues fell short because of lower than expected oil prices and weak oil production.

He added that the 2025 budget was based on assumptions that did not materialise, including oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day, and an oil price of 75 dollars per barrel.

Mr Yusuf said that actual production averaged 1.66 million barrels, while prices hovered around $66. According to him, this led to a significant shortfall from the projected 41 trillion naira revenue target, and weakened capital expenditure performance.

He, however, disclosed that many states performed better, with stronger internally generated revenue, improved liquidity and better project execution.

Reviewing sectoral performances, he said that the service sector remained the strongest driver of growth, accounting for 53 per cent of GDP by the third quarter of the year.

“Telecommunications finance construction real estate and trade led the expansion,” he said

He said that the non oil sector grew by 3.91 per cent and contributed over 96 per cent of GDP.

According to him, manufacturing remained weak, contributing only 7.62 per cent to GDP and growing by 1.25 per cent due to power shortages high logistics costs unfair import competition and rising operating expenses.

Mr Yusuf noted that Agriculture recorded a modest recovery, growing by 3.79 per cent though insecurity while low productivity remained major obstacles.

Looking ahead, the CEO said that rhe outlook for 2026 is one of cautious optimism.

He projected a GDP growth of between 4 and 4.5 per cent, supported by lower inflation stronger consumer demand and possible monetary easing.

He said that services would continue to drive growth while capital markets could receive a major boost from a potential listing of the Dangote Refinery.

Meanwhile, he warned of risks factors, including; insecurity, oil price and production volatility, high operating costs, fiscal pressures, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainties.

Mr Yusuf noted that growing resistance to tax reforms could also affect revenue projections.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

FG Tasks Dangote Sugar to Hit 600,000MT Output by 2030

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of State for Industry, Mr John Enoh, has tasked the Dangote Sugar Refinery to reach a production capacity of 600,000 metric tonnes (MT) per annum by 2030.

Speaking during a recent visit to the company’s complex in Numan, Adamawa State, Mr Enoh, who was accompanied by the Executive Secretary of the National Sugar Development Council, (NSDC), Mr Kamar Bakrinv, said he was at the sugar refiner as part of ongoing inspections of sugar projects nationwide, in line with President Bola Tinubu’s directive to accelerate Nigeria’s attainment of self-sufficiency in sugar production.

He said the country’s annual sugar consumption stood at about 1.8 million metric tonnes, far above current local production levels, noting that as a leading operator in the sector, Dangote Sugar must contribute significantly to bridging the supply gap.

“DSR is a very big player in the industry. Our circumstances in this sector will continue to depend on what DSR does.

“The company must deliver at least 600,000 metric tonnes annually by 2030 and sustain the output thereafter,” he said.

He commended the council for its role in driving the implementation of the Nigeria Sugar Master Plan, noting that collaboration among stakeholders remained critical.

“I have lost count of the number of times Mr President has spoken about the development of the sugar industry at Federal Executive Council (FEC) meetings,” he said.

The Minister described the infrastructure and level of investment at the Numan facility as evidence of commitment to the Backward Integration Programme.

He, however, stressed the need to accelerate efforts to meet national targets, assuring that the government will support operators to overcome existing challenges.

“We are aware that there are issues, including access to affordable long-term finance. Government is ready to work with stakeholders to address them,” he said.

Mr Enoh added that scaling up production was essential to meeting national expectations and reducing dependence on imports.

He said the programme had created employment opportunities and added value through local processing of sugarcane.

On his part, the Vice President of the Dangote Group, Mr Olakunle Alake, assured the minister of the company’s commitment to expand production capacity.

He said the firm would invest more resources to meet the 600,000 metric tonnes target by 2030.

The minister and his team inspected the new 6,000 tonnes-per-day factory expansion site, as well as harvest fields, mills and processing facilities during the visit.

The inspection also covered haulage systems, boilers, turbines and sugar bagging operations at the warehouse.

The NSMP was launched to achieve self-sufficiency, reduce reliance on imported sugar, and bridge the massive gap between local production and the national consumption rate of approximately 1.8 million metric tonnes annually.

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Economy

Oyedele Describes Reports on ‘Admits Errors in Tax Laws’ Misleading

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of State for Finance, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has denied admitting errors in Nigeria’s new tax laws, describing the reports as “misleading” and a false misrepresentation.

In a Sunday statement, attributed to the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee and posted on Mr Oyedele’s official X handle, the reports were described as an unhelpful twisted narrative that risks distorting public understanding and misleading the very people the reforms were designed to benefit.

“Our attention has been drawn to misleading media reports claiming that the Minister of State for Finance, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has ‘finally admitted errors in the new tax laws.’

“These publications misrepresent the Minister’s statements, falsely alleging that he urged Nigerians to await the outcome of a legislative probe, a process that has long been concluded and the gazetted copies certified by the National Assembly [have been] published since early January 2026.

“This twisted narrative is unhelpful as it risks distorting public understanding and misleading the very people the reforms were designed to benefit,” the statement read.

The committee explained that the minister, while speaking at a fireside chat during the Nigerian Bar Association Section on Legal Practice conference in Lagos, highlighted early gains from the tax reforms.

According to the statement, the gains highlighted by the Minister included a significant increase in the number of informal businesses seeking registration with the Corporate Affairs Commission, as well as a rise in the number of registered taxpayers from about 10 million to over 100 million nationwide.

These impressive results stem from the robust design and progressive nature of the new laws, including an exemption of small companies from tax, increased exemption thresholds for low-income earners, tax exemptions on basic consumption items like food, education, healthcare, transportation, and rent, and the introduction of the Tax Ombud to protect taxpayer rights, it stated.

The statement added, “The Minister contrasted the transformative changes in the new laws with the regressive provisions in the old laws. He, however, emphasised that no law is perfect.

“Therefore, ongoing stakeholder engagement is essential to identify and address any errors or gaps for appropriate legislative updates through Finance Bills as part of a continuous improvement process.”

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Economy

Lafarge Africa to Rebrand as HBM Nigeria After Huaxin Takeover

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Lafarge Africa

By Adedapo Adesanya

Lafarge Africa Plc will change its corporate name to HBM Nigeria Plc, reflecting new majority ownership by China’s Huaxin Cement Co., subject to approval by shareholders of the 67-year old cement maker.

The company will ask shareholders to approve the change of its corporate identity to HBM Nigeria Plc at its 67th Annual General Meeting scheduled for April 30, 2026, in Lagos.

The proposed name change is part of a broader AGM agenda that also includes financial reporting, dividend approval, and board restructuring.

The rebrand marks a new chapter following Holcim’s exit and signals Huaxin’s intent to deepen its footprint in Nigeria’s construction materials sector.

The company highlighted the proposed name change as a key special resolution requiring shareholder approval at the meeting. Management noted that the amendment will formally alter Clause 1 of its Memorandum of Association, redefining its legal identity.

Lafarge Africa Plc reported strong financial performance for the 2025 financial year, underscoring the backdrop to its proposed strategic shift. The company recorded significant growth across key financial metrics.

Revenue rose to N1.1 trillion in 2025, up 53 per cent from N696.8 billion in 2024. Profit after tax increased from N100.1 billion to N273 billion, representing a 173 per cent growth. Operating profit climbed from N193 billion to N392 billion, driven by cost optimisation and operational efficiency.

Earnings per share surged from N6.22 to N17, reflecting improved profitability. The company has proposed a final dividend of N6.00 per share, subject to shareholder approval and applicable withholding tax.

Huaxin Cement acquired a controlling 83.81 per cent stake in Lafarge Africa Plc from the Holcim Group for roughly $1 billion. The deal, finalised in late 2025, marks Holcim’s complete exit from Nigeria to focus on other markets, with Huaxin aimed at expanding its footprint in Africa.

The chairman of Lafarge Africa, Mr Gbenga Oyebode, said Nigeria’s market holds vast potential with its positive growth indices, increasing urbanisation, and infrastructure demand.

“This development will further solidify Lafarge Africa’s position as a leading contributor to Nigeria’s infrastructure and economic growth. Nigeria’s market holds vast potential with its positive growth indices, increasing urbanisation, and infrastructure demand. We remain committed to leveraging these opportunities while maintaining our focus on sustainability and innovation.”

Lafarge expanded into Nigeria in 2001 through the acquisition of Blue Circle, thereby taking over its stake in West African Portland Cement Company (WAPCO), later rebranding it as Lafarge Cement WAPCO Plc and significantly increasing production capacity with new plants and infrastructure in Ogun State.

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