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Economy

CPPE Forecasts 4.5% GDP Growth for Nigeria in 2026

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GDP Nigeria growth

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE) has forecast that Nigeria’s economy may grow as much as 4.5 per cent in 2026 following major gains in macroeconomic stability in 2025, which could pave way for stronger growth.

The chief executive of CPPE, Mr Muda Yusuf, disclosed this in a statement while presenting the organisation’s review of the economy in 2025 as well as its outlook for 2026.

He noted that the country recorded gains especially in exchange rate management inflation and business confidence this year, adding that 2025 provided a strong foundation of stability and with sustained reforms and improved security, 2026 could witness more robust growth and better living standards.

According to him, the most notable achievement in 2025 was the stability of the Naira which traded largely between N1,440 and N1,500 to the Dollar.

He said that this stability boosted business confidence, reduced imported inflation, and made pricing and investment planning more predictable.

He added that inflation also dropped sharply from 24.48 per cent in January, to about 14.45 per cent in November, strengthened by improved supply conditions and reduced logistics pressures.

According to him, prices of many food items and imported goods fell during the year, leading to improved consumer sentiment.

Mr Yusuf said that business confidence also strengthened throughout the year, adding that, many companies which recorded losses in 2024 returned to profitability in 2025.

On fiscal performance he said that federal government revenues fell short because of lower than expected oil prices and weak oil production.

He added that the 2025 budget was based on assumptions that did not materialise, including oil production of 2.06 million barrels per day, and an oil price of 75 dollars per barrel.

Mr Yusuf said that actual production averaged 1.66 million barrels, while prices hovered around $66. According to him, this led to a significant shortfall from the projected 41 trillion naira revenue target, and weakened capital expenditure performance.

He, however, disclosed that many states performed better, with stronger internally generated revenue, improved liquidity and better project execution.

Reviewing sectoral performances, he said that the service sector remained the strongest driver of growth, accounting for 53 per cent of GDP by the third quarter of the year.

“Telecommunications finance construction real estate and trade led the expansion,” he said

He said that the non oil sector grew by 3.91 per cent and contributed over 96 per cent of GDP.

According to him, manufacturing remained weak, contributing only 7.62 per cent to GDP and growing by 1.25 per cent due to power shortages high logistics costs unfair import competition and rising operating expenses.

Mr Yusuf noted that Agriculture recorded a modest recovery, growing by 3.79 per cent though insecurity while low productivity remained major obstacles.

Looking ahead, the CEO said that rhe outlook for 2026 is one of cautious optimism.

He projected a GDP growth of between 4 and 4.5 per cent, supported by lower inflation stronger consumer demand and possible monetary easing.

He said that services would continue to drive growth while capital markets could receive a major boost from a potential listing of the Dangote Refinery.

Meanwhile, he warned of risks factors, including; insecurity, oil price and production volatility, high operating costs, fiscal pressures, geopolitical tensions, and political uncertainties.

Mr Yusuf noted that growing resistance to tax reforms could also affect revenue projections.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Tinubu Cancels $1.42bn, N5.57trn in NNPC Legacy Debts

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bayo ojulari nnpc

By Adedapo Adesanya

President Bola Tinubu has approved the cancellation of a substantial portion of the debts owed by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to the Federation Account, wiping off about $1.42 billion and N5.57 trillion after a reconciliation of records between both parties.

This is contained in a document prepared by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) and presented at the November meeting of the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC).

According to reports, this was done at the meeting held on November 18, 2025.

In the section headed Recovery from NNPC Ltd Outstanding Obligations, the commission said the debts earlier reported at the October 2025 FAAC meeting stood at “$1,480,610,652.58 and N6,332,884,316,237.13 for PSC, DSDP, RA & MCA Liftings and JV & PSC Royalty Receivables respectively.”

It disclosed that the Presidency had now approved that most of those balances be removed from the Federation’s books.

The document stated, “However, the commission recently received a Presidential Approval to nil off the outstanding obligations of NNPC Ltd as at December 31, 2024, as submitted by the Stakeholder Alignment Committee on the Reconciliation of Indebtedness between NNPC Ltd and the Federation.”

Providing a breakdown of the affected balances, the NUPRC added, “Consequently, out of $1,480,610,652.58 and N6,332,884,316,237.13, the affected outstanding obligations that have been nil off are $1,421,727,723.00 N5,573,895,769,388.45. The commission has passed the appropriate accounting entries as approved.”

An analysis of the figures shows that the presidential directive wiped out about 96 per cent of the dollar-denominated debt and about 88 per cent of the naira-denominated obligations previously reported as outstanding.

The document indicates that the approval followed the recommendations of the Stakeholder Alignment Committee on the Reconciliation of Indebtedness between NNPC Ltd and the Federation, which reviewed the company’s royalty and lifting-related liabilities up to December 31, 2024.

Despite the cancellation of the legacy balances, fresh debts built up in 2025 remain.

In a separate section titled “NNPC Ltd Outstanding Obligations,” the regulator disclosed that statutory obligations arising between January and October 2025 still stood at “$56,808,752.32 and N1,021,550,672,578.87 for PSC & MCA Liftings and JV Royalty Receivables respectively.”

The commission added that part of the dollar component was recovered in the month under review, stating: “However, the commission received $55,003,997.00 in the month under review from the outstanding, leaving a balance of $1,804,755.32 and N1,021,550,672,578.87. The amount of $55,003,997.00 received is part of the total collection reported above for sharing by the Federation this month.”

The NUPRC confirmed that it had already implemented the directive in the Federation Account, noting that “the Commission has passed the appropriate accounting entries as approved.”

The approval effectively resolves long-running disputes over NNPC’s legacy indebtedness to the Federation, while current liabilities from ongoing operations continue to be tracked for future recovery.

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Economy

Traders Transact 2.876 billion Stocks Worth N63.832bn in Three Trading Days

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inject funds into stocks

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited opened its doors to traders for three trading sessions last week due to the public holidays declared by the federal government on Thursday, December 25 and Friday, December 26, 2025, to commemorate the Christmas celebration.

In the week, investors transacted 2.876 billion stocks worth N63.832 billion in 80,229 deals versus the 9.849 billion stocks valued at N305.843 billion traded in 126,584 deals a week earlier.

The financial services industry led the activity chart with 1.984 billion shares valued at N32.680 billion in 31,632 deals, contributing 68.99 per cent and 51.20 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

The investment sector followed with 208.695 million equities worth N2.264 billion in 640 deals, and the conglomerates landscape sold 147.002 million stocks for N6.085 billion in 1,676 deals.

Abbey Mortgage Bank, VFD Group, and Custodian Investment accounted for 1.471 billion units worth N14.684 billion in 1,093 deals, contributing 51.15 per cent and 23.00 per cent to the total trading volume and value apiece.

Business Post reports that the All-Share Index (ASI) appreciated by 0.97 per cent to 153,539.83 points and the market capitalisation grew by 1.98 per cent to N97.890 trillion.

Similarly, all other indices finished higher except the premium, insurance, MERI Growth, and Lotus II indices, which dropped 0.51 per cent, 2.13 per cent, 0.23 per cent, and 0.62 per cent, respectively, while the energy and the sovereign bond indices closed flat.

The biggest price gainer was Aluminium Extrusion after it gained 32.39 per cent to sell for N16.35, Austin Laz expanded by 32.23 per cent to N3.20, International Breweries improved by 20.83 per cent to N14.50, Mecure Industries soared by 18.55 per cent to N65.20, and First Holdco jumped by 17.91 per cent to N53.00.

The heaviest price loser was Legend Internet after it gave up 11.71 per cent to close at N4.90, Champion Breweries slipped by 11.50 per cent to N15.00, NEM Insurance depleted by 8.37 per cent to N24.10, AXA Mansard tumbled by 7.14 per cent to N13.00, and ABC Transport retreated by 6.57 per cent to N3.27.

When the bourse ended for the week last Wednesday, 44 equities appreciated versus 55 equities in the previous week, 30 stocks depreciated versus 36 stocks a week earlier, and 73 shares remained unchanged versus 55 shares of the previous week.

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Economy

US Airstrike Won’t Distabilise Nigerian Financial Markets—Edun Assures

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Nigerian Financial Markets

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister for the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, has assured investors that the country’s recent joint security operation with the United States in Sokoto will not destabilise the financial markets, but rather reinforce economic confidence.

Speaking via a statement on Sunday, Mr Edun emphasised that the operation, conducted on Christmas Day, was intelligence-led and targeted solely at terrorist elements threatening national stability and communities.

On Christmas day, the United States launched an airstrike on Islamic State West African Province (ISWAP) targets in Jabo, Sokoto State, as part of established counter-terrorism cooperation between both countries.

The strike reignited fears that had previously spooked the markets in November, when US President Donald Trump threatened military action in Nigeria.

In the statement, Mr Edun stressed that Nigeria was not at war with itself or any other country, and that the action is part of ongoing efforts to safeguard citizens and protect economic activity.

“The operation in question was precise, intelligence-led, and focused exclusively on terrorist elements that threaten innocent lives, national stability, and economic activity. Far from destabilising markets or weakening confidence, such actions strengthen the foundations of peace, protect productive communities, and reinforce the conditions required for sustainable growth. Security and economic stability are inseparable; every effort to safeguard Nigerians is, by definition, pro-growth and pro-investment,” he said.

He also underscored Nigeria’s solid macroeconomic performance, noting GDP growth of 3.98 per cent in the third quarter of 2025, following a 4.23 per cent expansion in Q2, adding that inflation has continued its downward trend for the eighth consecutive period, falling below 15 per cent reflecting improving price stability.

“Our financial markets remain resilient. Domestic and international debt markets are stable and functioning efficiently, supported by prudent fiscal management. Over the past year, Nigeria has received credit rating upgrades from Moody’s, Fitch, and Standard & Poor’s—clear, independent endorsements of the strength of our reforms and the credibility of our economic direction. We have maintained fiscal discipline, prioritised efficiency, and protected macroeconomic stability—demonstrating resilience in the face of external shocks,” he noted.

“As President Bola Tinubu noted in his address last week, our overarching objective for 2026 is to consolidate the gains of 2025, strengthen Nigeria’s economic resilience, and continue building a sustainable, inclusive, and growth-oriented economy.

“The actions we take today—on security, reforms, and fiscal discipline—are aligned with that goal. As markets reopen on Monday, 29 December 2025, investors can be confident that Nigeria remains focused, reform-driven, and committed to stability. The fundamentals are strengthening, the policy direction is clear, and the resolve of this administration—to protect lives, secure prosperity, and grow the economy—is unwavering.”

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