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Crude Oil Jumps as Geopolitical Tensions Persist

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil appreciated on Wednesday as geopolitical tensions continued in the Middle East and traders assessed signs of near-term supply tightness.

Brent crude was up by 69 cents or 0.8 per cent to $83.03 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude jumped by 87 cents or 1.1 per cent to settle at $77.91 per barrel.

Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab strait have continued to stoke concerns over freight flows through the critical waterway.

The Iran-aligned Yemeni Houthis have carried out repeated drone and missile strikes since November in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, saying they are acting in solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza war.

The Gaza conflict has spilled over into other parts of the Middle East. Lebanon’s Iran-aligned Hezbollah has traded fire with Israeli troops along the border, and Iraqi-armed groups have attacked US forces in Iraq.

US and British forces have responded with multiple strikes on Houthi facilities but have so far failed to halt the attacks.

Also, the US Federal Reserve is concerned about cutting rates too soon, minutes of its January policy meeting showed.

Concerns that rate cuts by the US central bank could take longer than thought have been weighing on the outlook for oil demand.

US inflation data last week pushed back expectations for an imminent start to the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle.

Crude oil inventories in the US rose this week, by 7.168 million barrels for the week ending February 16, according to the American Petroleum Institute (API), after analysts predicted a build of 4.298 million barrels.

The API reported an 8.52-million-barrel rise in crude inventories in the week prior.

Official data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) is due Thursday, delayed a day by Monday’s President’s Day holiday in the US.

According to analysts at Deutsche Bank, seasonal strengthening of demand in the second half is set to push the price of Brent Crude to $88 per barrel by the end of 2024, spurred by continued discipline from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ in a nearly balanced market for the first half of the year.

“The first possibility of relaxation of OPEC+ supply cuts will be in Q3 against a backdrop of tighter balances and higher prices, underpinned by seasonal strength,” the bank’s analysts wrote.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

Rivers Police Arrests Two Suspects Over Shell Pipeline Explosion

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Two persons have been apprehended by the Rivers State Police Command in connection with the explosion that affected the Trans Niger Delta Pipeline operated by Shell Petroleum Development Company (SPDC) at the border of Kpor and Bodo communities.

On Monday night, the oil facility was affected by an inferno, which forced Shell to shut it down to prevent further damage.

It was gathered that the first was noticed during a routine night patrol by security operatives, who “promptly alerted SPDC management.”

The company initiated necessary safety protocols, including shutting down the affected pipe​line, a statement from the Police Public Relations Officer for Rivers Command, Ms Grace Iringe-Koko, a Superintendent of Police (SP), said on Tuesday.

The police said the swift intervention brought “the situation is now under control, and there is no further threat to residents or the environment.”

According to her, the two accused persons were picked up after the commencement of “a thorough investigation to determine the cause of the fire.”

She said the suspects are answering questions to help the police “uncover any potential act of sabotage,” promising to ensure that perpetrators of criminal activities are identified and brought to justice.

“We urge residents to remain calm and vigilant, assuring them of our unwavering commitment to protecting lives and property. The Command will not relent in its efforts to rid the state of criminal elements and maintain peace and security for all.

“For any useful information regarding this incident or any suspicious activities, members of the public are encouraged to contact the nearest police station,” the statement said.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Cooling Inflation May Fuel Further Interest Rate Pause

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Cooling inflation in Nigeria could encourage the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to hold interest rate steady again when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meets in May.

On Monday, Nigeria’s annual inflation eased for a second straight month after the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) overhauled the index for the first time in 16 years in January 2025.

The move was carried out to better reflect the inflation pressures facing households in Africa’s most-populous nation with the base year changed from 2009 to 2024.

According to the NBS, consumer prices rose 23.18 per cent in February by 8.52 per cent from the 31.70 per cent achieved in January 2024.

In the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, the NBS said last month, the headline inflation slowed due to decline in the average prices of food items like yam tuber, potatoes, soya beans, flour of maize/cornmeal, cassava, bambara beans (dried), etc compared with the prices in the first month of this year.

Nigeria’s economy has grown in the last two quarters in Nigeria by over 2-3 per cent caused by inflation and the weakening of the local currency. This is slower compared to expected outcomes.

However, with further moderation, this could spur policymakers at the apex bank to pause rate hikes for yet another cycle.

The President Bola Tinubu administration is targeting a 15 per cent inflation level.

At its last meeting in February, the MPC held all rates across board with the headline monetary policy rate (MPR) retained at 27.50 per cent.

According to the Governor of the CBN, Mr Yemi Cardoso, the asymmetric corridor was retained around the MPR at +500/-100 basis points and the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) of Deposit Money Banks (DMBs) at 50.00 per cent and Merchant Banks at 16 per cent. Also, the MPC retained the Liquidity Ratio at 30.00 per cent.

The CBN had hiked interest rates by 875 basis points in the last year as Mr Cardoso favoured inflation targeting tools to fix skyrocketing cost of prices.

Market analysts noted that subsequent ease inflation in March and April could lead to even cuts but argued that pausing the rate will offer succour to businesses who have lamented the consistent hiking on their operations.

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Economy

NASD Index Opens Week in Green Territory After 0.15% Growth

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By Adedapo Adesanya

There was a 0.15 per cent appreciation at NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Monday March 17, with the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increasing by 4.90 points to close at 3,368.64 points, in contrast to last Friday’s 3,363.74 points and the market capitalisation of the bourse rose by N2.83 billion to settle at N1.945 trillion compared with the preceding trading day’s N1.942 trillion.

Okitipupa Plc gained N7.66 during the session to close at N307.66 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N300.00 per unit, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc expanded by 78 Kobo to settle at N39.01 per share versus last Friday’s price of N38.23 per share, and Geo Fluids Plc grew by 6 Kobo to trade at N2.90 per unit, in contrast to the previous trading day’s N2.84 per unit.

On the flip side, Afriland Properties Plc lost N2.01 to close at N21.19 per share compared with its previous rate of N23.20 per share.

Yesterday, the volume of securities traded at the bourse went down by 55.8 per cent to 288,383 units from the 652,237 units recorded last Friday, the value of securities traded by investor depreciated by 45.3per cent to N18.2 million from the N33.1 million quoted at the preceding session, and the number of deals executed at the first session of the week shrank by 27 per cent to 27 deals from 37 deals.

When the market closed for the session, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with a turnover of 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 13.0 million units valued at N505.1 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.4 million units sold for N357.0 million.

Also, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 69.9 million units sold for N23.7 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.4 million units valued at N357.0 million.

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