Economy
Experts Task Incoming Administration on Inflation, Debt
By Adedapo Adesanya
On Monday, May 29, Nigeria will get a new president as President Muhammadu Buhari will vacate office after eight years for his successor, President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu, a transition that comes with a lot of burdens.
Mr Tinubu, a member of Mr Buhari’s All Progressives Congress (APC), was announced by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) as the winner of the February 25 election, defeating Mr Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and Labour Party’s Mr Peter Obi.
However, the country faces massive headwinds of problems, including surging inflation and piling debt, which analysts who spoke to Business Post said are the top priority for Mr Tinubu’s administration.
In April, Nigeria’s headline inflation rate increased to 22.22 per cent as it increased by 0.18 per cent compared to the March 2023 headline inflation rate of 22.04 per cent. The NBS said on a year-on-year basis; the headline inflation rate was 5.40 per cent points higher compared to the rate recorded in April 2022, which was 16.82 per cent.
Plans by the country to control inflation and strengthen the Naira have seen interest rates raised for an unprecedented seventh consecutive time.
However, there are yet no signals that inflation will slow anytime soon, meaning the country will likely hike the rate further after research showed the increase in borrowing costs is yielding results.
The monetary policy committee on Wednesday lifted the benchmark rate by half a percentage point to 18.50 per cent, Governor Godwin Emefiele said in Abuja.
With the end in sight, Mr Buhari pleaded with lawmakers to hurriedly approve an $800 million loan from the World Bank, a move that could see Nigeria’s public debt pass $150 billion this year from over $60 billion when he took over.
His borrowing spree has drawn warnings from the World Bank that Africa’s largest economy was using 96 per cent of its revenue to service debts.
Earlier this month, the Budget Office of the Federation told the incoming legislature, which approves the country’s borrowing needs, that Nigeria’s debt-to-revenue ratio was worsening and could spell doom if the country exceeds its limit.
“We now have very limited borrowing space, not because our debt to GDP is high but because our revenue is too small to sustain the size of our debt. That explains our high debt service ratio. Once a country’s debt service ratio exceeds 30 per cent, that country is in trouble, and we are pushing towards 100 per cent, and that tells you how much trouble we are in,” the Director-General of the Budget Office, Mr Ben Akabueze, said.
Speaking to Business Post, Mr Akin Fatunke, a chartered accountant and public affairs analyst, said the country needed the incoming administration to take the bull by the horn.
“Economic viability should be hinged on efficient loan and self-sufficiency management geared towards investments at the commanding heights. West Africa has too many nation-states, many of which are simply not economically viable.
“I look at how Giuseppe Garibaldi masterminded the unification of Italy and how Otto Von Bismarck masterminded the unification of Germany, I look forward to a Nigerian hero masterminding the unification of West Africa,” he said in a correspondence to Business Post.
He tasked the incoming president to “Build a global economic giant that will rival the likes of China and India with their populations that are in excess of one billion people.”
On his part, Mr Nelson Ekujumi, a business and public affairs analyst, was optimistic about the capabilities of the incoming administration, noting that, “The incoming administration as headed by President-elect Asiwaju Bola Tinubu (GCFR) and Vice President-elect Senator Kashim Shettima (GCON) are astute accountant and economist technocrats respectively who are well versed in financial matters and I have a strong optimism that Nigeria’s debt will be tackled.”
He expects them to “plug economic loopholes to generate more sources of revenue that will limit our borrowing and put in place measures to ensure greater productivity and make life affordable and accessible such that the cost of living will be on a manageable scale for a vast majority of Nigerians.
“The factors engendering high cost of living is expected to be tackled frontally to arrest and reduce inflation.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) agreed to maintain stable oil production at its meeting on Sunday, the group said in a statement.
The agreement comes despite political tensions between key members; Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), as well as the capture of the president of another OPEC member, Venezuela, by the United States.
Sunday’s meeting of the eight OPEC+ members, which produce about half of the world’s oil, came after oil prices fell more than 18 per cent in 2025, their steepest annual decline since 2020, amid growing fears of oversupply.
The eight countries – Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria, and Oman – raised their oil production targets by approximately 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December 2025, which is almost 3 per cent of global oil demand.
In November, they agreed to suspend production increases for January, February, and March.
It was reported that Venezuela was not discussed at Sunday’s brief online meeting.
The eight countries will meet next on February 1, the statement said.
Tensions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE escalated last month over the decade-long conflict in Yemen, when a UAE-backed group seized territory from the Saudi-backed government. The crisis triggered the biggest rift in a decade between former close allies, as years of diverging views on critical issues came to a head, the publication writes.
OPEC has in the past managed to overcome serious internal disagreements, such as over the Iran-Iraq war, by prioritizing market management over political disputes.
However, the group faces numerous crises, with Russian oil exports under pressure due to US sanctions over Russia’s war against Ukraine, and Iran facing protests and threats of US intervention, the publication writes.
On Saturday, the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and US President Donald Trump said the American government would take control of the country until a transition to a new administration was possible, without specifying how this would be achieved.
Venezuela has the world’s largest oil reserves, even larger than those of OPEC leader Saudi Arabia, but the country’s oil production has plummeted due to years of mismanagement and sanctions.
By Dipo Olowookere
The first trading session of 2026 on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended on a positive note with a 0.57 per cent growth on Friday.
This was buoyed by renewed appetite for stocks across the key sectors of the market as investors rebalance their portfolios for the new year, especially with the commencement of the controversial tax laws.
Data from Customs Street showed that the banking space advanced by 2.32 per cent, the insurance improved by 2.07 per cent, the energy index expanded by 1.38 per cent, the commodity sector rose by 0.71 per cent, and the consumer goods landscape advanced by 0.21 per cent, while the industrial goods closed flat.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 879.33 points to 156,492.36 points from 155,613.03 points and the market capitalisation went up by N562 billion to N99.938 trillion from Wednesday’s N99.376 trillion.
Yesterday, the quartet of FTN Cocoa, Deap Capital, Mutual Benefits, and ABC Transport chalked up 10.00 per cent each to sell for N5.50, N2.09, N3.41, and N4.51 apiece, while Aluminium Extrusion gained 9.93 per cent to settle at N23.80.
However, Abbey Mortgage Bank declined by 6.25 per cent to N6.00, FCMB shrank by 4.56 per cent to N11.50, Seplat Energy depreciated by 3.43 per cent to N5,610.00, Guinea Insurance lost 2.26 per cent to close at N1.30, and Universal Insurance went down by 1.65 per cent to N1.19.
A total of 440.0 million shares worth N25.0 billion exchanged hands in 40,245 deals during the session compared with the 1.2 billion shares valued at N35.1 billion traded in 27,884 deals in the previous session, representing a surge in the number of deals by 44.33 per cent and a shortfall in the trading volume and value by 63.33 per cent and 28.78 per cent, respectively.
Chams topped the activity table after the sale of 120.3 million units worth N455.1 million, Linkage Assurance traded 21.2 million units valued at N38.3 million, Lasaco Assurance exchanged 19.5 million units for N48.6 million, Aradel Holdings sold 15.6 million units worth N10.7 billion, and Access Holdings transacted 14.3 million units valued at N317.3 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira closed the first session of 2026 positive against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) as it gained N4.91 or 0.34 per cent to trade at N1,430.85/$1 compared to the previous rate of N1,435.76/$1.
This was a similar trend in the spot market against the Pound Sterling and the Euro on Friday session as the Naira chalked up N8.47 on the British currency to close at N1,925.78/£1 versus Wednesday’s closing rate of N1,934.24/£1 and appreciated against the European currency by N9.64 to quote at N1,678.24/€1 versus N1,687.88/€1.
In the black market window, the Nigerian currency firmed up against the Dollar yesterday by N5 to sell for N,475/$1 compared with the previous rate of N1,480/$1 and improved against the greenback at the GTBank counter by N17 to settle at N1,435/$1 versus the previous value of N1,452/$1.
The appreciation at the market came as demand eased as the year commenced with a positive outlook for the FX market in which the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) said reforms will further enhance efficiency and transparency, narrow the premium between the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market and Bureau de Change rates, and sustain exchange rate stability. In addition, improved domestic oil refining capacity is expected to reduce foreign exchange demand for fuel imports.
The apex bank said that external reserves of Nigeria will climb to $51.04 billion in 2026 from $45 billion in 2025. The reserves are expected to be boosted by reduced pressure in the FX market based on the anticipated rise in oil earnings, sovereign bond issuance, and diaspora remittance inflows.
On inflation, the CBN anticipates that headline inflation will decelerate further to 12.94 per cent in 2026, driven by a combination of factors, and is expected to come down to 10.75 per cent in 2027.
In the cryptocurrency market, Ripple (XRP) rose above $2 for the first time since mid-December, extending a strong start to 2026 as traders pointed to steady spot exchange traded-fund (ETF) inflows and improving regulatory sentiment in the US. However, it closed the day at $1.99 after gaining 6.3 per cent.
Traders reassess the regulatory backdrop after SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw, a staunch critic of crypto spot ETFs, departed, which some market participants viewed as clearing the way for a more crypto-friendly policy stance.
Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 9.1 per cent to $0.1400, Cardano (ADA) grew by 7.9 per cent to $0.3856, Litecoin (LTC) jumped by 2.5 per cent to $81.37, and Solana (SOL) added 2.4 per cent to trade at $130.35.
In addition, Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 1.8 per cent to close at $3,077.46, Binance Coin (BNB) expanded by 0.7 per cent to sell for $871.01, and Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 0.6 per cent to $89,461.15, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
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