Economy
Fitch Rates Kaduna State ‘B’; Outlook Stable
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
Fitch Ratings has assigned Kaduna State Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency Issuer Default Ratings (IDRs) of ‘B’ and a National Long-Term Rating of ‘A+(nga)’. The Outlooks are Stable.
In a statement issued on Friday, Fitch said the ‘B’ ratings reflect Kaduna’s dwindling revenue prospects in line with declining statutory allocations from the central government as a result of weak oil prices. Oil-related revenues account for 70% of Nigeria’s current external receipts and Kaduna’s current revenue.
The ratings also reflect the region’s fast growing debt although servicing requirements will be moderated by government subsidies, concessionary terms and a long grace period. They further take into account the state’s developing economy focused on agricultural activities and low per capita revenue by international standards.
The ‘A+(nga)’ rating reflects Kaduna’s low risk relative to the country’s best risk given strong financial and revenue support from the central government.
The Stable Outlooks factor in Fitch’s expectation that a flexible expenditure framework and a sustainable borrowing capacity will allow Kaduna to weather volatile statutory transfers in the medium term.
According to the statement, the ratings assigned reflect the following rating drivers and their relative weights:
High
Weak Institutional Framework
As with other Nigerian states, Kaduna’s finances are affected by weak revenue predictability, and by high budgeted capital spending being rolled over into following financial years due to a lack of funding and limited implementation capacity. Waning transfers from Federal Accounts Allocation Committee (FAAC) amid the oil sector down-cycle provide renewed stimulus for tax revenue diversification but benefits may be visible only in the medium- to long-term.
Long-term Debt Challenge.
Kaduna State is increasing borrowing rapidly to fund capex in core infrastructure to sustain GDP growth and diversify revenue sources. Total debt at the end of fiscal year 2015 totalled NGN73bn and Fitch envisages it will more than double by end-2018 to 160% of current revenue, to finance projects mainly in the power, transport, water supply, education and healthcare sectors.
Fitch expects annual debt service requirements up to NGN8bn-NGN10bn, which will continue to be covered by the current balance and may be balanced with faster growth of internally generated revenue (IGR) in the medium term. Fitch expects Kaduna’s cash position to remain strong at around NGN30bn, hence providing adequate cushion for debt cash calls in the short-term.
Medium
FAAC Impacting Fiscal Performance
The FAAC is the primary mechanism for funding Nigerian states. Its process, which determines funding levels allocated on a monthly base, is derived from revenues accruing to the federal government, largely sourced from the oil sector. In line with plummeting oil prices and falling production, Kaduna’s statutory allocations declined to NGN52bn or 66%-70% of revenues, a trend Fitch expects to continue in 2016 with a further 20-25% decline.
Under its base case scenario, Fitch expects Kaduna to partially compensate for lower FAAC revenues in 2016 with a flexible expenditure framework that will see spending decline through the economic cycle. We forecast an operating margin of 10% in 2016, down from 16% in 2015 and a 10-year average of 40%. Fitch believes Kaduna can return to its 40% mark over the medium-term if it is able to raise local taxes.
IGR totalled NGN13bn in 2015 or nearly 20% of operating revenue, having languished at around NGN12bn over the last five years. However, given the low level of tax compliance and slowing growth from an agricultural economy, non-oil revenues should increase slowly as the administration pushes to expand the tax base.
Weak Socio-Economic Profile
Within the context of Nigeria, Kaduna’s fast-growing population and a traditionally strong primary sector contribute to weak socio-economic standards, including growing unemployment. A dominant agricultural sector drives the economy while Kaduna’s 2016-2020 plan is focusing on the state’s rich minerals resources by attracting foreign investors to key industrial projects.
Low
Transparency to Stimulate Investments
To attract private and foreign investments, Kaduna’s administration is committed to improving the state’s transparency and disclosure. Fitch believes that the transition from cash to a more sophisticated accrual-based accounting is a credit positive, as it restricts the scope for discretionary initiatives and human errors visible in the past.
RATING SENSITIVITIES
An upgrade could materialise if the operating margin strengthens towards 30% and if the fiscal deficit narrows due to IGR growth or tighter-than-expected cost control.
Conversely, financial debt growth leading to debt-to-current revenue ratios being consistently above Fitch’s expectations could result in a downgrade. Unrest damaging economic prospects or undermining oil-related revenue could also lead to a downgrade.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) has announced the commencement of compliance monitoring activities for large taxpayers under the National e-Invoicing and Electronic Fiscal System (EFS) regime.
A statement issued on Monday and signed by the agency’s chairman, Mr Zacch Adedeji, advised corporate organisations that have yet to adopt this system to do so on or before July 31, 2026.
Recall that on February 17, 2026, NRS issued an implementation timeline for the mandatory adoption of the EFS, also known as the Merchant Buyer Solution (MBS), by large taxpayers.
They were asked to complete the process of onboarding, integration, testing, and commence invoice transmission to the NRS e-invoicing platform in accordance with the prescribed implementation framework.
The compliances include the completion of onboarding on the NRS MBS; the successful integration of taxpayer systems through approved Access Point Providers (APPs) and/or Systems Integrators (SIS); the completion of all required validation and testing activities; the active transmission of invoices to the NRS e-invoicing platform in line with approved standards and guidelines; and the receipt of only compliant e-invoices with a valid Invoice Reference Number (IRN) from suppliers.
Ahead of the deadline, the NRS has commenced compliance monitoring activities to assess the level of adherence to the e-invoicing mandate across the large taxpayer segment.
Those that have not completed the process have been asked to conclude all outstanding onboarding and integration activities and commence invoice transmission before the compliance deadline.
The organisation warned that failure to comply would trigger regulatory and enforcement actions in accordance with the provisions of the relevant tax laws and regulations.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Transcorp Power Plc suffered declines in its revenue and profit in the first half of this year; details of the company’s financial statements for the period ended June 30, 2026, have revealed.
The losses were attributed to recurring transmission line vandalism, which materially constrained the organisation’s ability to evacuate available generation capacity.
Business Post reports that earnings contracted in the first six months of this year to N181.97 billion from the N205.81 billion recorded in the same period of last year, while profit before tax moderated to N54.99 billion from N58.73 billion.
However, on a year-to-date basis, total assets went up to N619.02 billion from N563.48 billion in December 2025, as shareholders’ funds grew to N189.34 billion from N183.40 billion in FY 2025, while retained earnings soared to N140.90 billion from N123.41 billion in FY 2025.
It was observed that the increase in receivables and borrowings largely drove the expansion in the balance sheet during the period.
Also, the firm’s gross margin expanded to 38.4 per cent from 34.7 per cent in H1 2025, operating margin increased to 30.6 per cent from 28.5 per cent, and PBT margin rose to 30.2 per cent from 28.5 per cent, reflecting cost optimisation efforts and disciplined financial management, positioning the company to continue delivering sustainable value for shareholders.
“Our H1 2026 performance is a reflection of the resilience of our business operations despite significant sector-wide existential challenges.
“Regrettably, recurring transmission line vandalisation materially constrained our ability to evacuate available generation capacity.
“Nonetheless, we continued to deliver strong profitability, maintain operational efficiency, and strengthen our balance sheet,” the chief executive of Transcorp Power, Mr Peter Ikenga, stated.
“We remain committed to working with relevant stakeholders to put an end to transmission line vandalisation and to further improving operational performance, power generation supply reliability, and creating sustainable value for our shareholders. We remain highly confident that we will recover lost ground in H1 2026 and finish FY 2026 stronger than FY 2025,” he added.
By Dipo Olowookere
A total of 2.819 billion stocks worth N182.499 billion exchanged hands in 226,729 deals on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited last week, in contrast to the 3.648 billion stocks valued at N220.568 billion transacted in 251,861 deals a week earlier.
From this, financial shares accounted for 2.006 billion units sold for N99.697 billion in 96,171 deals, contributing 71.17 per cent and 54.63 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
Consumer goods equities traded 178.863 million units worth N7.872 billion in 26,637 deals, and energy stocks recorded a turnover of 151.237 million units valued at N38.309 billion in 16,879 deals.
First Holdco, FCMB, and Access Holdings accounted for 939.402 million units worth N57.673 billion in 19,051 deals, contributing 33.33 per cent and 31.60 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
Business Post reports that the performance indicators were mixed in the five-day trading week, as the All-Share Index (ASI) depreciated by 0.14 per cent to 243,462.13 points, while the market capitalisation appreciated by 0.39 per cent to N157.057 trillion.
All other indices finished higher except the main board, consumer goods, energy, Lotus II, industrial goods, growth, and sovereign bond indices, which fell by 1.54 per cent, 0.15 per cent, 0.11 per cent, 0.40 per cent, 6.26 per cent, 0.09 per cent, and 0.33 per cent, respectively, while the commodity index closed flat.
Forty-four shares gained weight in the week versus 60 shares of the preceding week, 35 equities depreciated versus 28 equities in the previous week, and 67 stocks closed flat versus 58 stocks of the earlier week.
The best-performing stock was First Holdco, which gained 38.66 per cent to trade at N95.95. Thomas Wyatt expanded by 27.16 per cent to N3.09, Fidelity Bank grew by 15.00 per cent to N21.85, Learn Africa grew by 14.44 per cent to N10.30, and UBA chalked up 10.98 per cent to close at N45.50.
The worst-performing stock was BUA Cement after giving up 18.99 per cent to quote at N275.60, Red Star Express shed 18.53 per cent to end at N20.00, International Energy Insurance declined by 15.27 per cent to N4.66, C&I Leasing dropped 13.28 per cent to N5.55, and PZ Cussons crashed by 10.06 per cent to N80.95.
