Economy
Fitch Retains $100 per Barrel Price Forecast for Brent
By Adedapo Adesanya
Top rating company, Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research, has left its Brent crude price forecast unchanged at $100 per barrel in 2022 and $90 per barrel in 2023.
A new report from the company revealed that “prices have stayed elevated in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflecting supply disruptions stemming from the conflict itself, as well as Western sanctions in place on Russia.”
It added that, “Supply elsewhere is also constrained forcing the U.S. to utilize its SPR in an unprecedented fashion. Other OPEC+ members are struggling to meet their monthly output quotas, while U.S. shale growth is decelerating.”
“Despite this, downside risks to the price outlook have risen, as the demand outlook grows more clouded. The Ukraine conflict has weakened the economic prospects of major regional markets, including Russia and Germany, with our analysts making further downward revisions to their GDP growth forecasts this month,” Fitch Solutions continued.
The company also warned that Covid-19 infection rates “continue spiralling higher in China, triggering increasingly stringent containment measures that have undercut Chinese oil consumption and now threaten negative spillovers for other economies, particularly in Asia.”
Relying on the latest information from the World Health Organization (WHO), weekly COVID-19 cases in China rose more than 111 per cent from the week commencing on April 18 to the week commencing on April 25. Deaths also rose more than 93 per cent during the same time frame, WHO figures showed. Both figures remain below peaks seen a few weeks ago, however, according to WHO data.
“We have opted not to alter our prices at this stage but note a shift in the balance of risk to the outlook, which now skews to the downside,” Fitch Solutions noted.
Looking further ahead, Fitch Solutions sees Brent crude prices averaging $85 per barrel in 2024 and $88 per barrel in both 2025 and 2026. The Bloomberg Consensus, which was also highlighted in the report and to which Fitch Solutions is a contributor, sees Brent prices averaging $98.6 per barrel in 2022, $85.3 per barrel in 2023, $80 per barrel in 2024, $78 per barrel in 2025, and $78.3 per barrel in 2026.
At the start of last month, Fitch Solutions revealed in a separate report that it had made a “large upward revision” to its Brent crude price forecast. In that report, the company outlined that it expected prices to average at $100 per barrel this year and $90 per barrel in 2023, which it highlighted was up from its previous forecasts of $82 per barrel for 2022 and $83 per barrel for 2023.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The trading licence of Monument Securities and Finance Limited has been revoked by the regulatory arm of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc.
Known as NGX Regulations Limited (NGX Regco), the regulator said it took back the operating licence of the organisation after it shut down its operations.
The revocation of the licence was approved by Regulation and New Business Committee (RNBC) at its meeting held on September 24, 2025, a notice from the signed by the Head of Market Regulations at the agency, Chinedu Akamaka, said.
“This is to formally notify all trading license holders that the board of NGX Regulation Limited (NGX RegCo) has approved the decision of the Regulation and New Business Committee (RNBC)” in respect of Monument Securities and Finance Limited, a part of the disclosure stated.
Monument Securities and Finance Limited was earlier licensed to assist clients with the trading of stocks in the Nigerian capital market.
However, with the latest development, the firm is no longer authorised to perform this function.
Economy
NEITI Advocates Fiscal Discipline, Transparency as FG, States, LGs Get N6trn in Three Months
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (NEITI) has called for fiscal discipline and transparency as data showed that federal government, states, and local governments shared a whopping N6 trillion Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) disbursements in the third quarter of last year.
In its analysis of the FAAC Q3 2025 allocation, the body revealed that the federal government received N2.19 trillion, states received N1.97 trillion, and local governments received N1.45 trillion.
According to a statement by the Director of Communication and Stakeholders Management at NEITI, Mrs Obiageli Onuorah, the allocation indicated a historic rise in federation account receipts and distributions, explaining that year-on-year quarterly FAAC allocations in 2025 grew by 55.6 per cent compared with Q3 of 2024 while it more than doubling allocations over two years.
The report contained in the agency’s Quarterly Review noted that the N6 trillion included 13 per cent payments to derivative states. It also showed that statutory revenues accounted for 62 per cent of shared receipts, while Value Added Tax (VAT) was 34 per cent, and Electronic Money Transfer Levy (EMTL) and augmentation from non-oil excess revenue each accounted for 2 per cent, respectively.
The distribution to the 36 states comprised revenues from statutory sources, VAT, EMTL, and ecological funds. States also received additional N100 billion as augmentation from the non-oil excess revenue account.
The Executive Secretary of NEITI, Mr Sarkin Adar, called on the Office of the Accountant General of the Federation, the Revenue Mobilisation Allocation and Fiscal Commission (RMAFC) FAAC, the National Economic Council (NEC), the National Assembly, and state governments to act on the recommendations to strengthen transparency, accountability, and long-term fiscal sustainability.
“Though the Quarter 3 2025 FAAC results are encouraging, NEITI reiterates that the data presents an opportunity to the government to institutionalise prudent fiscal practices that will protect the gains that have been recorded so far in growing revenue and reduce vulnerability to commodity shocks.
“The Q3 2025 FAAC results are encouraging, but windfalls must be managed with discipline. Greater transparency, realistic budgeting, and stronger stabilisation mechanisms will ensure these resources deliver durable benefits for all Nigerians,” Mr Adar said.
NEITI urged the government at all levels to ensure the growth of Nigeria’s sovereign wealth and stabilisation capacity, by committing to regular transfers to the Nigeria Sovereign Wealth Fund and other related stabilisation mechanisms in line with the fiscal responsibility frameworks.
It further advised governments at all levels to adopt realistic budget benchmarks by setting more conservative and achievable crude oil production and price assumptions in the budget to reduce implementation gaps, deficit, and debt metrics.
This, it said, is in addition to accelerating revenue diversification by prioritising reforms that would attract investments into the mining sector, expedite legislation to modernise the Mineral and Mining Act, support reforms in the downstream petroleum sector, as well as the full implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) to expand domestic refining and value addition.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Nigeria has been projected to record an economic growth rate of 4.4 per cent in 2026 by the World Bank Group, higher than the 3.7 per cent earlier predicted in June 2025.
In its 2026 Global Economic Prospects report released on Tuesday, the global lender also said the growth for next year for Nigeria is 4.4 per cent rather than the 3.8 per cent earlier projected.
As for the sub-Saharan African region, the economy is forecast to move up to 4.3 per cent this year and 4.5 per cent next year.
It stressed that growth in developing economies should slow to 4 per cent from 4.2 per cent in 2025 before rising to 4.1 per cent in 2027 as trade tensions ease, commodity prices stabilise, financial conditions improve, and investment flows strengthen.
In the report, it also noted that growth is expected to jump in low-income countries by 5.6 per cent due to stronger domestic demand, recovering exports, and moderating inflation.
As for the world economy, the bank said it is now 2.6 per cent and not 2.4 per cent due to growing resilience despite persistent trade tensions and policy uncertainty.
“The resilience reflects better-than-expected growth — especially in the United States, which accounts for about two-thirds of the upward revision to the forecast in 2026,” a part of the report stated.
“But economic dynamism and resilience cannot diverge for long without fracturing public finance and credit markets,” it noted.
World Bank also said, “Over the coming years, the world economy is set to grow slower than it did in the troubled 1990s — while carrying record levels of public and private debt.
“To avert stagnation and joblessness, governments in emerging and advanced economies must aggressively liberalise private investment and trade, rein in public consumption, and invest in new technologies and education.”
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