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Fitch Returns Nigeria’s Outlook to Stable, Forecasts 2% GDP Growth

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Fitch Ratings

**Says Inflation to Remain at Double Digits through 2019

**Debt to Hits 292% of Revenue

**Buhari Expected to Continue Economic Programme if Re-elected

By Dipo Olowookere

The outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) has been reviewed upward to stable nearly six months after it was dropped to negative by Fitch Ratings.

In a statement dated November 2, 2018, the global rating agency said it also affirmed its rating on Nigeria at ‘B+’.

According to Fitch, the revision of the outlook on Nigeria’s Long-Term IDRs reflects the ongoing economic recovery and decreasing external vulnerabilities, both supported by increased oil production and higher global oil prices.

It noted that despite setbacks, the Nigerian economy is continuing its slow recovery from the recession that ended in early 2017.

Fitch pointed out that non-oil growth has been supported by an increase in the supply of foreign exchange and will receive an additional boost as the government begins its delayed implementation of the 2018 capital budget.

“Political uncertainty ahead of the general election scheduled for February 2019 may lead to some weakening in growth, but we expect any disruption to be short-lived,” the statement obtained by Business Post said.

It added that the contribution of the oil sector has been positive in the first half of 2018 as oil production, including condensates, has averaged just below 2.1 million barrels per day (mbpd), compared with 1.9 mbpd in 2017.

Fitch said it expects average production of crude oil in Nigeria to remain around 2.1 mbpd through 2018 and 1H19.

Fitch is forecasting a GDP growth of 2 percent overall in 2018, increasing to 2.5 percent in 2019 and 3.3 percent in 2020, and the agency expects that Nigeria’s medium-term growth will average around 4 percent.

It noted that oil production will increase as new exploration and oil infrastructure projects begin to come online, but emphasised that Nigeria will struggle to raise production to the levels envisaged in the 2019-2021 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF).

Fitch said high inflation has been a rating weakness, but CPI growth slowed to 11.3 percent year-on-year in September 2018, down from a recent peak of 18.7 percent in January 2017.

Inflation fell rapidly in 1Q18, but disinflation has slowed since, as base effects fade and conflicts between herders and farmers affect food supplies.

Fitch said it expects that annual average inflation will fall, but remain in the double digits through 2019.

“Despite falling inflation, Fitch expects that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will move towards tighter monetary policy to support FX rate stability,” the firm said.

The CBN has kept the monetary policy rate at 14 percent since May 2016, but has conducted monetary policy through its sales of Open Market Operation bills and by managing the reserve ratio.

Foreign currency availability has improved although Fitch believes that it remains a constraint on economic growth. The CBN continues to operate an FX regime with multiple windows and exchange rates, which will not change before the general elections. However, the wholesale interbank FX rate has depreciated, bringing it closer to the rate at the Investors and Exporters window.

Nigeria has increased its stock of international reserves to $44.6 billion (7.2 months of current external payments) as of September 2018, from $37.9 billion at end-2017.

The accumulation of reserves has been a function of both an increase in oil export receipts and an increase in inflow of foreign investments.

The rating agency said Nigeria’s external flows are exposed to global risk sentiments as well as to investor’s views on the country’s political and fiscal developments. However, the build-up of reserves provides a substantial external buffer.

“Nigeria’s ‘B+’ IDRs also reflect the country’s position as Africa’s largest economy and its well-developed domestic debt markets, balanced against low levels of domestic revenue mobilisation and of GDP per capita, a high level of hydrocarbon dependence, and low rankings on governance and business environment indicators.

“Nigeria continues to run persistent fiscal deficits at both the central and general government levels. Fitch forecasts a general government deficit of 4.3 percent of GDP in 2018, approximately the same as 2017.

“The government’s 2019-2022 Medium Term Expenditure Framework envisages a decrease in expenditure following three straight years of increasing capital expenditure. Lower expenditure, as a percentage of GDP, will help the general government fiscal deficit to narrow to 4 percent of GDP in 2019, but the government will continue to experience difficulty in raising non-oil domestic revenue.

“Oil revenue has increased since hitting bottom in 2016, but volatile production levels and inefficiencies within the petroleum sector have limited the transmission of higher oil prices to higher government revenue,” the statement said.

It added that Nigeria’s general government debt will rise to 292 percent of revenue, well above the historical ‘B’ median of 205 percent of revenue, reflecting the accumulation of new debt and the lack of progress on raising government revenue.

At 20 percent of general government revenue, interest payments are already more than twice the ‘B’ median. Federal government interest expenditure to federal government revenue stands much higher at just below 60 percent, the company stated.

“Fitch forecasts Nigeria’s current account (CA) surplus to widen to 3.6 percent of GDP in 2018 as oil export receipts have grown thanks to high oil prices. The CA surplus will narrow in subsequent years as import growth increases following several years of import compression related to tight foreign exchange supply. Nigeria is a net external creditor equivalent to 12 percent of GDP in 2018.

Fitch considers that the easing of foreign-currency liquidity has reduced risks regarding Nigerian banks’ ability to meet dollar liabilities and external debt repayments. However, economic headwinds have continued to affect asset quality.

“Average industry NPLs (according to CBN data) increased to 15 percent at end-2017, reflecting the lag affect from 2015. NPLs are concentrated in the oil and gas sector. The ongoing economic recovery, higher oil prices and widespread loan restructuring is likely to moderately help asset quality, but high NPLs will weigh on private sector credit provision.

“Credit to the private sector returned to modest positive growth in 2018 after tight domestic liquidity and crowding out from government borrowing led to a contraction of 5 percent through November 2017,” the firm said.

It was stressed that the outcome of the upcoming general elections remains uncertain. President Buhari will face a strong challenge from former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, who won the October 2018 primary to be the People’s Democratic Party candidate. Abubakar has made limited statements regarding his economic policy platform, but has criticised the current FX regime and has also signalled his support for devolving more control over public finances to the state governments.

“If Buhari is re-elected, we expect his government to continue implementing the economic programme outlined in the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan released in March 2017.

“Fitch does not expect widespread disruption or instability around the election. However, a flare-up of violence in the Niger Delta around the elections presents downside risk to the fiscal, external and GDP growth forecasts,” the rating agency stated.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

Economy

Local Stock Exchange Gains 0.16% on Return from Easter Break

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domestic stock exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

The first trading session on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited after the two-day break for Easter ended on a positive note, with a 0.16 per cent rise on Tuesday, April 7, 2026.

The local stock exchange last opened its doors to investors last Thursday, and at the resumption of trading activities yesterday, market participants showed enthusiasm, mopping up shares in the banking ecosystem, and rescuing the bourse from the bears.

This returned Customs Street to the green territory, with the All-Share Index (ASI) growing by 324.21 points to 202,023.10 points from 201,698.89 points, and the market capitalisation up by N209 billion to N130.015 trillion from N129.806 trillion.

The expansion experienced during the session was inspired by three sectors, with the banking index up by 1.46 per cent, the energy space up by 0.12 per cent, and the consumer goods counter up by 0.10 per cent. But the insurance sector lost 1.37 per cent, and the industrial goods sector depreciated by 0.31 per cent.

Business Post reports that investor sentiment was bearish on Tuesday after a negative market breadth index caused by 25 price gainers and 36 price losers.

Ellah Lakes slumped by 10.00 per cent to N10.80, DAAR Communications gave up 9.95 per cent to trade at N1.72, Chams decreased by 9.87 per cent to N3.38, John Holt lost 9.71 per cent to finish at N13.95, and Sunu Assurances slipped by 9.68 per cent to N4.20.

On the flip side, Trans Nationwide Express gained 9.86 per cent to quote at N3.12, Omatek appreciated by 9.76 per cent to N2.25, Cadbury Nigeria improved by 9.53 per cent to N75.25, First Holdco rose by 9.10 per cent to N54.55, and Fortis Global Insurance chalked up 6.50 per cent to close at N1.31.

Trading data revealed that activity level improved during the session, with the trading volume up by 114.29 per cent to 1.2 billion shares from 560.0 million shares, the trading value surged by 108.81 per cent to N40.3 billion from N19.3 billion, and the number of deals soared by 57.03 per cent to 78,006 deals from 49,676 deals.

Wema Bank transacted 282.6 million equities valued at N7.3 billion, Access Holdings exchanged 125.2 million stocks worth N3.3 billion, VFD Group traded 106.8 million shares for N1.1 billion, First Holdco sold 63.0 million equities worth N3.2 billion, and GTCO exchanged 56.6 million shares valued at N7.1 billion.

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Economy

Oil Markets Drops Below $100 on New Trump Ceasefire

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global oil market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market was down $100 per barrel ‌on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump said he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, subject to the immediate and safe reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent futures lost $14.51 or 13.3 per cent to sell for $94.76 a barrel, ​while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures fell by $17.16 or 15.2 per cent to $95.79 a barrel.

WTI has maintained its price premium over ⁠Brent in ​a reversal of typical price patterns due to its delivery ​contract being for May while Brent is for June, reflecting that barrels with an earlier delivery date are commanding a higher ​price.

President Trump’s turnaround came shortly before his deadline for Iran to ​open the Strait of Hormuz, where 20 per cent of the world’s oil transits, or ⁠face widespread attacks on its civilian infrastructure.

“This will be a double-sided CEASEFIRE!” he wrote on social ​media, after posting earlier on Tuesday that “a whole civilisation will die tonight” if his demands were not ​met.

President Trump indicated that negotiations may be progressing toward a more durable agreement, citing a 10-point proposal from Iran that he described as a “workable basis” for long-term peace.

Iran said it would halt its attacks if attacks against it stopped and that safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz would be possible for two weeks in coordination with Iranian armed forces.

Despite the breakthrough, tensions remain elevated across the region, with several Gulf states reporting missile launches, drone activity, or issuing civil defence warnings.

The single most important factor to watch will be how many tankers cross the Strait of Hormuz with this new agreement in place. Already, another tanker operated by Malaysia’s Petronas and carrying Iraqi crude was allowed passage in the latest sign of a modest restoration of oil flows via the chokepoint.

Earlier in the week, two tankers carrying LPG for India were also allowed to pass the strait after Iran began making individual passage deals with foreign governments. The past few days have also seen three Oman-operated vessels clear the chokepoint, as well as a French container ship and a Japanese gas carrier. China, Russia, Turkey, and Pakistan are also among the countries that Iran is allowing to send ships via the waterway.

The US-Israeli war with Iran saw the steepest monthly oil price rise in history in March of more than 50 per cent.

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Economy

Verto Introduces Dollar Business Accounts to Power US–Africa Trade Flows

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verto

By Adedapo Adesanya

Vert, a global cross-border payments platform, has announced a new solution under Verto Business Accounts that enables US-registered businesses to move money seamlessly between the United States and Africa.

With the ability to open a US Dollar account in their business name and have access to trusted emerging market payment rails, companies can now receive, hold, and transfer funds faster, more cost-effectively, and with greater control.

US-registered businesses with operations in Africa often encounter significant banking limitations, with US banks frequently delaying or blocking transactions to or from African markets, imposing high or hidden FX costs, and offering limited access to Emerging Market payment corridors. Businesses without a US bank account registered in their own name must rely on fragmented tools or intermediaries to move funds to Africa, creating operational inefficiencies and slowing growth.

Verto’s new solution directly addresses these challenges by giving US-domiciled businesses access to named USD accounts and a robust cross-border payment infrastructure, enabling them to move funds and settle transactions in local currencies with speed and efficiency.

Built for venture-backed startups, import-export SMEs, and investors funding emerging market innovation, this solution will enable clients to receive funds directly into a named USD business account from US based customers or investors, convert and settle between USD and local currencies such as NGN and KES quickly and at lower cost, as well as hold, receive, and pay in 48 currencies from a single dashboard.

The solution will also allow users to pay contractors, suppliers, and offshore teams instantly via local payment rails. It also equips teams with virtual cards to spend in 11 currencies without fees and leverage specialised onboarding and monitoring that navigates both US and African regulatory requirements

By combining US and African compliance expertise, Verto’s Business Accounts empowers companies to maintain a US domestic presence for investors, customers, and suppliers while using deep-liquidity rails to pay global contractors and settle trades in local currencies efficiently, ensuring uninterrupted trade, payroll, and investment flows, without the risk of blocked or delayed transactions.

“We believe founders building across borders should not be constrained by the limitations of traditional banking,” said Ola Oyetayo, CEO of Verto. “Providing named accounts in the US empowers businesses with the funds they need to operate globally, connecting the US and Africa more efficiently without friction.”

With over 8 years of experience and $25 billion in annual global cross-border transaction volume, Verto continues to provide the infrastructure, expertise, and trusted payment rails businesses need to operate confidently across borders and scale globally.

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