Economy
Fragile Balance of Payment Position: Policy Options
By FSDH Research
The net inflow of money into the Nigerian economy from other countries in Q4 2018 remained fragile and was dominated by oil and gas transactions. Clearly, the Nigerian economy is vulnerable to movements in the oil and gas market.
FSDH Research makes this conclusion based on the latest report of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on the estimate of Balance of Payment (BOP) position of Nigeria as at Q4 2018. The weak BOP position buttresses the urgent need to create multiple sources of revenue and foreign exchange earnings for Nigeria.
Most countries around the world do business and financial transactions with other countries that require exchanges of money. These transactions are usually carried out by individuals or businesses, or by governments on behalf of their countries. The record of these transactions with other countries is known as BOP and is made up of three major components: Current Account, Financial Account and the Capital Account.
The Current Account is usually the largest component of the BOP and it measures a country’s trade balance plus the effects of net income and direct payments. The Financial Account measures the changes in domestic ownership of foreign assets and foreign ownership of domestic assets. The Capital Account is usually the smallest component of the BOP and it measures the financial transactions that do not affect a country’s income, production, or savings.
In some cases, Capital Account may be added to the Financial Account Transitions.
Just like the financial accounts of individuals and businesses, a country’s BOP could be in a surplus or in deficit. Surplus means the country receives more money from other countries than it pays out. In Q4 2018, Nigeria recorded a surplus of US$2.8million lower than the surplus of US$6.18billion it recorded in the corresponding period of 2017 but higher than the deficit of US$4.52billion recorded in Q3 2018. Between Q3 2018 and Q4 2018, Nigeria was able to reduce its imports and increased its export of goods. The effect of these actions led to a significant reversal of Nigeria’s Current Account balance with its positive impact on the BOP.
As in previous years, the main drivers of exports were crude oil and gas, representing 93.79% of total exports.
The Financial Account balance was in deficit during the period as more investments moved from Nigeria to other countries than they moved to Nigeria. Investments from other countries to Nigeria were dominated by portfolio investments attracted by good return in the financial sector, particularly in fixed income securities.
FSDH Research stresses the need to improve the business environment in Nigeria to attract direct investment. This will create jobs, and ensure foreign currency stability and prosperity of the Nigerian economy.
In the March 2019 edition of our Monthly Economic and Financial Market report entitled ‘Economic Realities: Policy Options’, we discussed strategies to improve the Nigerian business environment. Some of the policies we suggested include: reduction in administrative delays in obtaining licences and approvals, investment in infrastructure through partnership with the private sector, and removal of multiple exchange rate systems.
The CBN report shows that the position of external reserves as at Q4 2018 at US$42.59 billion was enough to cover 13 months of imports. This is higher than the 3 months global benchmark and 6 months West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) benchmark. This also provides temporary stability for the value of the Naira.
However, the long-term stability of the value of the currency will depend on the ability of the country to generate foreign exchange from multiple sources and to build domestic capacity to save, invest and consume goods and services that are produced locally.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices settled about 1 per cent lower on Thursday even as the Iran war escalated, with the Middle East oil producer asking Yemen’s Houthi movement to be prepared to close the Red Sea oil export route.
Brent crude futures fell by 72 cents or about 0.9 per cent to trade at $84.23 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures depreciated by 65 cents or 0.8 per cent to close at $78.95 a barrel.
Iran has instructed Yemen’s Houthi movement to stand ready to close the Bab el-Mandeb strait, the vital gateway to the Red Sea, if the US follows through on threats to strike Iranian power infrastructure.
Market analysts warned that with the Strait of Hormuz already closed, the latest threat raises the serious risk of both of the Middle East’s primary oil export routes being disrupted at the same time.
About 7.4 million barrels of petroleum transited Bab el-Mandeb per day in June, about 7 per cent of global oil output, according to Kpler data, up from 4.2 million barrels per day last year.
This week, US President Donald Trump repeated oft-stated threats to strike Iranian power plants and bridges.
According to senior Iranian sources, the Islamic Republic’s leadership has discussed the idea with Iran’s Houthi allies, with the rebel forces now awaiting definitive orders to begin targeting maritime traffic.
In a sign of escalating tensions in the region, the Houthis fired missiles at Saudi Arabia after accusing the kingdom of bombing an airport under their control on Monday, breaking a four-year truce in the conflict between the kingdom and the group.
This comes as Saudi Arabia is currently evaluating a massive infrastructure expansion to permanently upgrade the capacity of its western pipeline and terminal networks.
Any additional disruptions could force international shipping firms to redirect vessels around Africa, inflating transit costs and worsening the global energy crisis.
On Wednesday, the US struck Iran’s coastal defences and missile sites after reimposing a naval blockade of its ports, while the two countries exchanged intensified fire on Thursday, which kept pressure on prices upward.
However, weighing on prices was Iran’s release of a US citizen, which could point toward a path to avert the resumption of all-out war.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has launched a new digital platform to track every foreign exchange transaction involving Bureaux De Change (BDC) operators, marking a major step in its efforts to improve transparency and strengthen oversight of the country’s retail forex market.
In an operational guidance issued on July 15 to authorised dealer banks and licensed BDCs, the apex bank introduced the FX BDC Purchase Tracker (FXBT), a centralised electronic portal designed to monitor foreign exchange purchases by BDCs from the point of request through approval, settlement and eventual sale.
The CBN said the portal will require BDCs to upload real-time or same-day data on all FX purchases made through the Nigerian Foreign Exchange Market (NFEM), giving the regulator transaction-level visibility across the retail FX market.
According to the bank, the platform is designed to prevent abuse by making it easier to detect operators attempting to exceed the weekly purchase limit of $150,000, obtain allocations from multiple banks or divert foreign exchange outside approved channels.
The launch of the tracker builds on the CBN’s February policy that restored direct access for licensed BDCs to purchase foreign exchange from authorised dealer banks through the NFEM. While that policy improved access to official FX, the new platform provides the digital infrastructure to monitor how the funds are used.
Under the new framework, authorised dealer banks must conduct comprehensive Know-Your-Customer (KYC) and customer due diligence checks before selling foreign exchange to any BDC.
The new guideline also says banks must verify beneficial ownership information, retain incorporation documents and carry out enhanced due diligence for higher-risk operators. Any BDC that fails these checks will not be allowed to access official foreign exchange.
The guidance also requires banks to acknowledge BDC purchase requests submitted through the FXBT portal within two business hours and immediately notify operators whether their requests have been approved or rejected.
To discourage speculation, the CBN directed that any forex purchased through the NFEM but left unused must be sold back into the market within 24 hours after the expiration of the utilisation period. BDCs are also required to disclose any previously unused balances when submitting fresh requests.
In addition, all foreign exchange transactions between banks, BDCs and customers must be settled through registered accounts with licensed financial institutions. Third-party transactions are prohibited, and any transfer outside a BDC’s registered settlement account will be treated as a regulatory violation.
The apex bank also said all authorised dealer banks and licensed BDCs are expected to comply with the new regulatory guidance and operational procedures with immediate effect.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The chief executive of HBM Nigeria Plc (formerly Lafarge Africa), Mr Lolu Alade-Akinyemi, said the cement producer is expected to add 4.5 million tonnes to its production capacity by January 2027.
HBM Nigeria Plc is positioning itself for stronger long-term competitiveness, market leadership and job creation as it accelerates expansion projects.
The transition to HBM Nigeria marks a new phase of growth, driven by operational excellence, sustainability, innovation, and infrastructure development, while maintaining its long-standing commitment to Nigeria’s construction sector.
Mr Alade-Akinyemi, speaking recently in Lagos, said the ongoing expansion of the company’s Ashaka and Sagamu plants would significantly boost local production, create employment opportunities, and support businesses across its value chain.
“We recently announced the expansion of the Sagamu plant in Ogun State and the Ashaka plant in Gombe State. Hopefully, in January 2027, we will commission both plants, adding 4.5 million tonnes to our capacity. Traditionally, building a new plant takes about three years, but this is one of the benefits of belonging to the Huaxin Group,” he said.
According to him, the projects will generate employment, create opportunities for young people and women, strengthen local suppliers and contractors, and contribute further to Nigeria’s economic growth.
“There are many vacancies we are trying to fill in Sagamu and Ashaka. Beyond direct employment, we are creating opportunities for small businesses, developing suppliers and supporting local contractors. This is an exciting period because it will deliver significant benefits to Nigeria,” he said.
Mr Alade-Akinyemi noted that while the company’s corporate identity had changed following its acquisition by Huaxin Building Materials Group, its core values and commitment to customers, host communities, employees and shareholders remain unchanged.
He said HBM Nigeria traces its roots to 1959 as West African Portland Cement Company (WAPCO), with its first cement plant commencing operations in Ewekoro, Ogun State, in 1961.
Since then, he said, the company has grown into one of Nigeria’s leading building solutions providers with integrated plants in Ewekoro, Sagamu, Ashaka and Mfamosing.
He added that the company, which became publicly listed in 1979, has continued to expand through acquisitions and transformation while maintaining high product quality, innovation and responsible operations.
Highlighting the strengths of its parent company, Alade-Akinyemi described Huaxin Building Materials as a globally recognised building materials manufacturer founded in 1907 and headquartered in Wuhan, China, with operations across 16 regions in China and 14 countries worldwide.
He said Huaxin’s engineering expertise and focus on research and development would strengthen HBM Nigeria’s operations and help close engineering skills gaps in the country.
“As HBM Nigeria, we are strategically positioned for long-term competitiveness and stronger market leadership while reinforcing our commitment to supporting Nigeria’s infrastructure development and economic progress after more than six decades of industry leadership,” he said.
He also said sustainability would remain central to the company’s operations, noting that it had introduced lower-carbon products and continued to invest in environmentally friendly production processes.
