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Fuel Scarcity, Electricity Tariff to Push Inflation to 15.81%—Meristem

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inflation rate

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Inflation in Nigeria for the month of February 2022 will jump to 15.81 per cent, analysts at Meristem have predicted.

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the figures on Tuesday, March 15 and from the analysis, the rise in inflation is expected to be influenced by fuel scarcity and an increase in electricity tariff.

Last month, the nation was plunged into another scarcity of premium motor spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol, as a result of the importation of contaminated fuel into the country.

This development caused a disruption in the supply chain and coupled with the ongoing war in Ukraine by Russia, which has led to a shortage of fuel in Europe.

In its report, Meristem said “the current fuel scarcity gives us reasons to expect a spike in headline inflation in February.

“The effectively higher PMS prices and the resulting increase in transport cost should be a major trigger to core inflation.”

It further said, “On the other hand, we envisage that imported inflation would reflect more on food prices in the month, given Nigeria’s sizable consumption of wheat and wheat-based products (the tension in Europe has caused an increase in the price of cereals and grains).

“Based on our assessment, the key risk factors to core inflation in February include; the upward review of electricity tariffs and soaring crude oil prices. Based on these, we expect headline inflation to rise by 15.81 per cent YoY in February 2022.”

Business Post reports that last month, the stats office said the inflation rate in January 2022 increased by 15.60 per cent but the clog in the wheel of global economic growth caused by the Russia-Ukraine crisis is giving many sleepless nights.

The tension has prompted the imposition of strict economic sanctions on Russia, which could see the country’s growth plunge by as much as double-digit.

The immediate impact of the crisis is seen on commodity prices, especially crude oil and cereals, where Russian supply to world markets is significant.

Economy

Nigeria to Showcase Mineral Prospects to Global Investors at 2025 AMW

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mineral resources

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Nigeria intends to use the continent’s premier mining event, the 2025 African Mining Week (AMW), taking place in Cape Town, South Africa from October 1 to 3 to showcase the country’s mining prospects.

The programme, themed From Extraction to Beneficiation: Unlocking Africa’s Mineral Wealth, will have several stakeholders in the mining sector across the globe in attendance.

The organisers said it has already put in place a dedicated session on Nigeria to allow the government showcase current projects and opportunities, reinforcing its position as an emerging mining hub.

AMW 2025 will provide an ideal platform for Nigeria to showcase its progress and engage investors to secure its role in Africa’s mining future.

The event will not only highlight key projects, but also foster dialogue on policy, infrastructure and partnerships needed to unlock the sector’s full potential.

With growing international interest, Nigeria is poised to position itself as a leading destination for sustainable mineral development.

The country’s mineral resources include 42.5 billion tons of probable bitumen (sixth-largest globally), 10.6 billion tons of limestone, 2.75 billion tons of coal, over 3 billion tons of iron ore and 21.4 metric tons of gold – offering significant investor opportunities.

Together, these resources position Nigeria as a potential mining powerhouse capable of driving industrialization, creating jobs and delivering long-term economic growth.

Recall that in April 2025, Nigeria signed a cooperation agreement with South Africa – the continent’s leading mining nation – to promote investment, technology transfer and knowledge sharing. This partnership is expected to accelerate Nigeria’s mining growth by drawing on South Africa’s expertise and mature sector.

On the ground, Titan Minerals Limited is leading exploration for phosphate in Sokoto, bitumen in Edo and Ondo and gold along the Schist Belt, while seeking partners to advance new gold, base metals and PGM deposits toward feasibility.

Meanwhile, Thor Explorations launched underground drilling at its Segilola Gold Mine – Nigeria’s first industrial gold operation – aiming to scale production to 85,000–95,000 ounces in 2025.

Additionally, Nigeria resumed gold, lithium and copper exploration in Zamfara in early 2025, underscoring its drive to attract fresh investment.

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Economy

NUPRC Introduces Real-Time Tracking for Oil Export Shipments

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Nigeria oil exports

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria will introduce real-time tracking for oil export shipments, requiring exporters to obtain a permit, vessel clearance and a unique identification number to enable monitoring of cargoes.

According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the updated regulations are designed to enable real-time monitoring of oil cargo exports to combat theft and under-declaration at export terminals, and thereby significantly enhance government revenue.

The new directive, issued under the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Advance Cargo Declaration Regulation 2024, mandates the use of the commission’s online platforms for the processing of all pre-shipment documentation.

This includes verifying the identity of exporters, confirming export volumes, and embedding a UIN into every clearance notification to enable real-time tracking.

According to the agency, all relevant export documents, such as the Bill of Lading, Certificate of Origin, and cargo manifest, must reference the UIN to ensure full traceability and compliance with regulatory protocols.

The guidelines, approved by the organisation’s chief executive, Mr Gbenga Komolafe, aim to address long-standing issues of under-declaration, oil theft, and revenue loss at export terminals.

According to a statement, the guidelines issued under Section 10(f) of the Petroleum Industry Act 2021, provide a comprehensive framework for obtaining export permits, vessel clearance, and a mandatory Unique Identification Number for all crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids, and petroleum product exports from Nigerian terminals and export points.

According to NUPRC, the Advance Cargo Declaration (ACD) solution is designed to enhance transparency and accountability in crude oil export operations.

NUPRC aims to achieve this by establishing a robust system for declaring and tracking crude oil movement, from production to export terminals, and ensuring that only certified products are exported.

The ACD solution will monitor and account for crude oil movement by tracking crude oil from its origin within Nigeria to its export point, ensuring a clear record of its journey.

It will also prevent disruptions, theft, and under-declaration of petroleum products by providing a transparent and traceable system.

The NUPRC explained that the new system, driven by its Advance Cargo Declaration Portal, allows for seamless integration with other government export systems, real-time monitoring, and timely upload of cargo data within 24 hours of loading.

The regulation applies to all licences and leases granted or preserved under the Petroleum Industry Act, 2021, covering exports from every terminal and point of exit across the country.

In addition, the guidelines empower the Commission to deny vessel clearance for incomplete or false documentation. Offenders may be penalised through administrative fines and other sanctions.

Mr Komolafe emphasised that the initiative aligns with the Commission’s broader mandate to modernise the upstream oil sector, minimise waste, maximise government revenue, and enforce regulatory compliance in line with the Petroleum Industry Act.

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Economy

OPEC Fund Pledges $1bn Funding for Developing Countries

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OPEC Development Fund

By Adedapo Adesanya

The OPEC Fund for International Development has pledged to provide more than $1 billion in funding to Africa and developing countries elsewhere as part of a broader $2 billion pledge by Arab nations over the next five years.

The fund, founded by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to fund projects in non-OPEC member states, also laid out a new trade finance initiative to help countries secure imports and liquidity during periods of turmoil.

It comes as the United States and a number of European countries reduce the amount of bilateral aid they provide to poorer countries around the world.

The Vienna-based OPEC Fund announced on Wednesday around $720 million in new financing to support development efforts across Africa, Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean, and the signing of $362 million in new loan agreements.

The agreements included a $300 million plan for Rwanda over the next three years as well as programmes worth $65 million and $40 million, respectively, in Ivory Coast and for the Uganda-based East African Development Bank.

The OPEC Fund also announced a new Trade Finance Initiative to boost trade resilience in partner countries by facilitating access to essential imports, closing liquidity gaps, and strengthening resilience to external shocks in vulnerable economies.

There was also a cooperation agreement with the Central American Bank for Economic Integration for infrastructure, energy and human development projects and the formalisation of a tie up with the Islamic Organization for Food Security on climate-resilient agriculture.

The OPEC Fund hosted the annual meeting of the heads of institutions of the Arab Coordination Group (ACG) this week.

The roundtable resulted in an ACG joint pledge of $2 billion financing over the next five years. A dedicated Arab Donors Roundtable on the Sahel also discussed greater support for the region’s urgent challenges such as drought.

The OPEC Fund also disclosed that a cooperation agreement with the International Anti-Corruption Academy (IACA) will support training programs to promote institutional transparency and anti-corruption capacity building in partner countries.

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