Economy
Global Trade Heavily Disrupted by Red Sea Attacks—IMF
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary (IMF) has said in the first two months of 2024, Suez Canal trade dropped by 50 per cent from a year earlier while trade through the Panama Canal fell by 32 per cent, disrupting supply chains and distorting key macroeconomic indicators.
These two channels, which are critical to global trade have been held back by disruptions.
Attacks on vessels in the Red Sea area reduced traffic through the Suez Canal, the shortest maritime route between Asia and Europe, through which about 15 per cent of global maritime trade volume normally passes.
Conversely, a significant drought at the Panama Canal has forced authorities to enforce limitations that have substantially curtailed daily crossings since October of last year. This has resulted in a further deceleration of maritime commerce through an additional critical chokepoint, which typically facilitates approximately 5 per cent of worldwide maritime trade.
Following these disruptions, several shipping companies diverted their ships around the Cape of Good Hope. This increased delivery times by 10 days or more on average, hurting companies with limited inventories.
The IMF also said in its blog post that the volume of trade that passed through the Suez Canal dropped by 50 per cent year-over-year in the first two months of the year, and the volume of trade transiting around the Cape of Good Hope surged by an estimated 74 per cent above last year’s level. Meanwhile, the transit trade volume through the Panama Canal fell by almost 32 per cent compared with the prior year.
Through its PortWatch platform, launched in November 2023, in January and February 2024, there was a 6.7 per cent decline year-over-year in port calls to the 70 ports we track in sub-Saharan Africa. The corresponding declines for the European Union and the Middle East and Central Asia were 5.3 per cent.
The Bretton Wood institution said the decreases likely reflect the transitory effects of longer shipping times.
It warned that if this continues, it would temporarily hamper some supply chains in affected countries and cause upward inflation pressure (in part due to higher shipping costs).
The IMF also said that these shipping disruptions may affect official statistics on recorded imports (and exports).
“For example, merchandise trade reports for January in many countries in Africa, the Middle East, and Europe may show slowing import growth as some imports that would normally have been recorded in January were only delivered in February. For the same reason, many low-income countries that obtain a significant share of their fiscal revenues from import duties (and export taxes) may report lower fiscal revenue than expected for January,” it referenced.
Economy
Naira Crashes to N1,464/$1 at Official Market, N1,485/$1 at Black Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was not a good day for the Nigerian Naira at the two major foreign exchange (FX) market on Friday as it suffered a heavy loss against the United States Dollar at the close of transactions.
In the black market segment, the Naira weakened against its American counterpart yesterday by N10 to quote at N1,485/$1, in contrast to the N1,475/$1 it was traded a day earlier, and at the GTBank forex counter, it depreciated by N2 to settle at N1,467/$1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,465/$1.
In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) window, which is also the official market, the nation’s legal tender crashed against the greenback by N6.65 or 0.46 per cent to close at N1,464.49/$1 compared with the preceding session’s rate of N1,457.84/$1.
In the same vein, the local currency tumbled against the Euro in the spot market by N2.25 to sell for N1,714.63/€1 compared with the previous day’s N1,712.38/€1, but appreciated against the Pound Sterling by 73 Kobo to finish at N1,957.30/£1 compared with the N1,958.03/£1 it was traded in the preceding session.
The market continues to face seasonal pressure even as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is still conducting FX intervention sales, which have significantly reduced but not remove pressure from the Naira. Also, there seems to be reduced supply from exporters, foreign portfolio investors and non-bank corporate inflows.
President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented the government’s N58.47 trillion budget plan aimed at consolidating economic reforms and boosting growth.
The budget is based on a projected crude oil price of $64.85 a barrel and includes a target oil output of 1.84 million barrels a day. It also projects an exchange rate of N1,400 to the Dollar.
President Tinubu said inflation had plunged to an annual rate of 14.45 per cent in November from 24.23 per cent in March, while foreign reserves had surged to a seven-year high of $47 billion.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was dominated by the bulls but it continues to face increased pressure after million in liquidations in previous session over accelerating declines, with Dogecoin (DOGE) recovering 4.2 per cent to trade at $0.1309.
Further, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 3.9 per cent to $1.90, Cardano (ADA) rose by 3.5 per cent to $0.3728, Solana (SOL) jumped by 3.4 per cent to $126.23, Ethereum (ETH) climbed by 2.9 per cent to $2,982.42, Binance Coin (BNB) gained 2.0 per cent to sell for $853.06, Bitcoin (BTC) improved by 1.7 per cent to $88,281.21, and Litecoin (LTC) soared by 1.2 per cent to $76.50, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
Economy
Crude Oil Prices Climb as US Blocks Venezuelan Tankers
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices edged up on possible disruptions from a US blockade of Venezuelan tankers as the market waits for news about a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Brent futures rose 65 cents or 1.1 per cent to $60.47 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by 51 cents or 0.9 per cent to $56.66 per barrel. Both Brent and WTI were down about 1 per cent this week after both crude benchmarks fell about 4 per cent last week.
US President Donald Trump said he was leaving the possibility of war with Venezuela on the table, noting that there would be additional seizures of oil tankers near Venezuelan waters after the US seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela last week.
The American President this week ordered a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, in the US’ latest move to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s government, targeting its main source of income. The pressure campaign on President Maduro has included a ramped-up military presence in the region and more than two dozen military strikes on vessels in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea near Venezuela, which have killed at least 90 people.
President Trump has also previously said that US land strikes on the South American country will soon start.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday said that the US is not concerned about an escalation with Russia when it comes to Venezuela, as the Trump administration builds up military forces in the Caribbean.
This development comes as President Trump seeks an end to the unending war between Ukraine and Russia that is heading towards its fourth year.
European Union leaders decided on Friday to borrow cash to loan 90 billion Euros to Ukraine to fund its defense against Russia for the next two years as Russian President Vladimir Putin offered no compromise on Friday on his terms for ending the war in Ukraine and accused the European Union of attempting “daylight robbery” of Russian assets.
Ukraine, meanwhile, struck a Russian “shadow fleet” oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea with aerial drones for the first time.
Earlier this week, the US and Ukraine both signaled progress in negotiations about a peace agreement during talks in German capital city of Berlin. The US is now reportedly offering Ukraine security guarantees modeled on NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense pledge.
Economy
Tinubu Presents N58.47trn Budget for 2026 to National Assembly
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented a budget proposal of N58.47 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year titled Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity to a joint session of the National Assembly, with capital recurrent (non‑debt) expenditure standing at 15.25 trillion, and the capital expenditure at N26.08 trillion, while the crude oil benchmark was pegged at $64.85 per barrel.
Business Post reports that the Brent crude grade currently trades around $60 per barrel. It is also expected to trade at that level or lower next year over worries about oil glut.
At the budget presentation today, Mr Tinubu said the expected total revenue for the year is N34.33 trillion, and the proposal is anchored on a crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US Dollar.
In terms of sectoral allocation, defence and security took the lion’s share with N5.41 trillion, followed by infrastructure at N3.56 trillion, education received N3.52 trillion, while health received N2.48 trillion.
Addressing the lawmakers, the President described the budget proposal as not “just accounting lines”.
“They are a statement of national priorities,” the president told the gathering. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value‑for‑money spending.”
The presentation came at a time of heightened insecurity in parts of the country, with mass abductions and other crimes making headlines.
Outlining his government’s plan to address the challenge, President Tinubu reminded the gathering that security “remains the foundation of development”.
He said some of the measures in place to tame insecurity include the modernisation of the Armed Forces, intelligence‑driven policing and joint operations, border security, and technology‑enabled surveillance and community‑based peacebuilding and conflict prevention.
“We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes—because security spending must deliver security results,” the president said.
“To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies by boosting personnel and procuring cutting-edge platforms and other hardware,” he added.
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