By Adedapo Adesanya
Goldman Sachs has revised and reduced its forecast for Brent crude oil, the benchmark which Nigeria prices its crude to $75 a barrel for the third quarter, $5 lower than its previous estimate, as a surge in Delta variant COVID-19 cases takes a toll on demand.
Earlier this week, oil prices fell $5 a barrel in response to fears over the hit to demand from rising Delta coronavirus infections and an agreement from the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) to boost output.
“Our oil balances are slightly tighter in 2H21 than previously, with an assumed two-month 1 mb/d demand hit from Delta more than offset by OPEC+ slower production ramp-up,” Goldman said.
In addition, the bank now projects a third-quarter deficit of 1.5 million barrels per day versus the 1.9 million barrels per day forecast previously.
Goldman expects Brent oil prices to average $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter from its previous forecast of $75 and sees a deficit of 1.7 million barrels per day in the final quarter of this year.
“The oil market repricing to a higher equilibrium is far from over, with the bullish impulse shifting from the demand to the supply side,” the bank said.
Even if vaccinations fail to curb hospitalisation rates, which could drive a longer slump to demand, the decline would be offset by lower OPEC+ and United States shale output given current prices, Goldman added.
“Oil prices may continue to gyrate wildly in the coming weeks, given the uncertainties around Delta variant and the slow velocity of supply developments relative to the recent demand gains,” it said.
Goldman also said progress on a US-Iran nuclear deal has stalled leading to increased risks that the potential ramp-up in Iran exports is later than its October base case.
BUA Cement Pulls Down Stock Exchange by 0.70%
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited depreciated by 0.70 per cent on Friday on the back of a decline in the share prices of BUA Cement and 23 others as investors sold off the stocks to book profit as they weigh their options.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 350.53 points to settle at 49,664.07 points compared with the previous day’s value of 50,014.60 points. Also, the market capitalisation fell by N189 billion to close at N26.787 trillion in contrast to N26.976 trillion on Thursday.
Business Post reports that the industrial goods sector suffered the heaviest loss on Thursday, depreciating by 4.61 per cent and was trailed by the banking counter, which lost 0.19 per cent as the energy space deflated by 0.16 per cent.
However, the consumer goods sector appreciated by 2.82 per cent influenced by gains in the share price of BUA Foods, while the insurance sector gained 1.75 per cent.
BUA Cement lost 9.95 per cent to trade at N52.95, Chams fell by 9.68 per cent to 28 Kobo, Cutix depreciated by 8.89 per cent to N2.05, Ellah Lakes went down by 6.98 per cent to N4.00, while Unity Bank declined by 6.52 per cent to 43 Kobo.
Conversely, BUA Foods topped the gainers’ log after rising by 10.00 per cent to N59.95, NEM Insurance appreciated by 9.98 per cent to N4.41, Courteville expanded by 9.80 per cent to 56 Kobo, Ikeja Hotel rose by 9.48 per cent to N1.27, while Multiverse improved by 8.44 per cent to N2.44.
During the session, investors bought and sold 750.3 million equities worth N5.3 billion in 4,076 deals compared with the 133.6 million equities worth N2.4 billion transacted in 4,292 deals in the earlier trading day, representing a decline in the number of deals by 5.03 per cent and an increase in the trading volume and value by 461.63 per cent and 117.72 per cent respectively.
Capital Hotels was the busiest stock of the session as it sold 478.2 million units valued at N3.4 billion and was trailed by eTranzact, which sold 77.6 million units worth N176.9 million.
Coronation Insurance exchanged 37.1 million units worth N14.9 million, FBN Holdings traded 30.5 million units for N333.2 million, while UBA traded 13.2 million units valued at N92.7 million.
Naira Gains, Sells N691/$1 at P2P, N677/$1 at Black Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated at the Peer-to-Peer (P2P), Investors and Exporters (I&E) and the parallel market windows of the foreign exchange (FX) market on Friday on the back of an improvement in the supply of forex to the financial markets by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
The Nigerian currency gained N5 or 0.72 per cent against the United States currency during the trading day to settle at N691/$1 in contrast to the previous session’s value of N696/$1.
Also, in the official market segment, the local currency appreciated by 63 Kobo or 0.15 per cent against the Dollar to close at N429.62/$1 versus Thursday’s exchange rate of N430.25/$1.
It was a similar outcome in the black market, where the domestic currency was strengthened against the greenback during the session byN3 or 0.44 per cent to quote at N677/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N680/$1.
In the interbank segment of the market, the Naira, however, maintained stability against the British Pound Sterling and the Euro at N513.10/£1 and N433.78/€1 respectively.
Data from FMDQ Securities Exchange showed that on Friday, the value of FX at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Fixing (NAFEX) went down by 20.7 per cent or $12.06 million to $46.31 million from $58.37 million and this helped the strengthening of the Naira at the I&E at the close of business.
Meanwhile, the digital currency market was bullished during the session as nine of the 10 coins tracked by Business Post pointed northwards, with the US Dollar Tether (USDT) closing flat at $1.00.
Solana (SOL) recorded the highest gain of 10.7 per cent to sell at $47.70, Cardano (ADA) grew by 6.4 per cent to trade at $0.5639, Ethereum (ETH) went up by 6.1 per cent to $2,004.73, while Litecoin (LTC) surged by 4.3 per cent to trade at $64.31.
Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) increased by 4.2 per cent to $0.0739, Shiba Inu (SHIB) appreciated by 3.1 per cent to $0.00001272, Bitcoin (BTC) added 2.9 per cent to quote at $24,670.19, Ripple (XRP) recorded a 1.8 per cent rise to trade at $0.3833, while Binance Coin (BNB) rose by 1.5 per cent to sell for $328.85.
Unlisted Securities Market Bleeds as NDEP Stocks Fall
By Adedapo Adesanya
Niger Delta Exploration and Production (NDEP) Plc opened the door for the bears to penetrate the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Friday.
The unlisted securities market bled by 0.41 per cent on the last trading session of the week as a result of the decline in the share price of NDEP.
Consequently, the market capitalisation of the bourse shrank by N4.08 billion to N1.003 trillion from N1.007 trillion, while the NASD Unlisted Securities Index (NSI) dropped 3.1 basis points to end the day at 762.18 points as against 765.28 points it recorded in the previous session.
Data from the exchange indicated that the stock price of the oil and gas investment company depleted by N22.5 during the session to N209.84 per unit from the previous N232.24 per unit.
It was also observed that the volume of securities traded at the bourse on Friday reduced by 45.5 per cent to 60,475 units from 111,021 units, while the value of trades increased 179.0 per cent to N7.5 million from N2.7 million, with the number of deals increasing by 44.4 per cent to 13 deals from the nine deals carried out a day earlier.
AG Mortgage Bank Plc remained the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 2.3 billion units valued at N1.2 billion, while Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc stood in second place with the sale of 686.5 million units worth N14.2 billion, with Food Concepts Plc in third place with the sake of 147.8 million units valued at N128.4 million.
The most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis was still CSCS Plc with a turnover of 686.5 million units exchanged for N14.2 billion, while VFD Group Plc was in second place with the sale of 11.1 million units valued at N3.3 billion, with FrieslandCampina WAMCO Nigeria Plc in third place with a turnover of 13.9 million units valued at N1.7 billion.
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