Economy
IMF Forecasts 3.3% GDP Growth, 23.6% Inflation for Nigeria in 2024
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised Nigeria’s 2024 economic growth forecast from the 3 per cent it had previously estimated to 3.3 per cent while it expects inflation to moderate to 26.3 per cent.
The Washington-based institution, however, revised downwards the country’s 2025 growth projection from 3.1 per cent to 3 per cent.
The fund also stated that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), through its heightened increase in the monetary policy rate, was on the path to rein inflation, as it projected inflation to decline to 23 per cent next year and then 18 per cent in 2026.
The IMF projected in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) released on Tuesday at the ongoing hybrid spring meetings in collaboration with the World Bank, in Washington DC.
The IMF report titled Steady but Slow: Resilience Amid Dive also stated that in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), it anticipated that growth would increase from approximately 3.4 per cent in 2023, to 3.8 per cent in 2024 and further to 4 per cent in 2025.
That optimistic outlook stemmed from the gradual alleviation of adverse impacts from previous weather disturbances and the gradual resolution of supply challenges.
The growth forecast for SSA in 2024 remained consistent with the January 2024 WEO Update.
IMF stated, “In sub-Saharan Africa, growth is projected to rise from an estimated 3.4 per cent in 2023 to 3.8 per cent in 2024 and four per cent in 2025, as the negative effects of earlier weather shocks subside and supply issues gradually improve.”
The forecast was unchanged for 2024, from the January 2024 WEO Update, as a “downward revision to Angola owing to a contraction in the oil sector is broadly offset by an upward revision to Nigeria.”
Speaking on Nigeria at the WEO media briefing, Division Chief, Research Department, IMF, Mr Daniel Leigh, noted that Nigeria’s economic growth was showing positive signs, with a rise from 2.9 per cent last year to 3.3 per cent this year, driven by the recovering oil sector and improved agriculture.
Mr Leigh stated that inflation had increased due to various factors, including reforms and exchange rate fluctuations. He said reforms were prompting a revision of the inflation projection for this year to 26 per cent.
He noted that with tighter monetary policies and significant interest rate increases, inflation was expected to decline to 23 per cent next year, and further to 18 per cent by 2026, indicating a favourable trajectory for the economy.
“Growth in Nigeria is steady but rising this year from 2.9 per cent last year to 3.3 per cent this year. We have seen an expansion from the recovering oil sector with a better security situation and also improved agriculture benefiting from the better weather conditions and the introduction of dry season farming.
“So there is a broad-based increase also in the financial sector and the IT sector. Inflation has increased, part of this reflects the reforms and the exchange rate and it has passed from imports to other goods. This explains also why we revised our inflation projection for this year to 26 per cent.
“But with the tight monetary policies and the interest rate policy increase and significant interest rate in February and March, we see inflation declining to 23 per cent next year and then 18 per cent in 2026. So, it is in the right direction.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Proprietary Investment firm, VFD Group Plc, recorded a 1,202 per cent rise in its Profit Before Tax (PBT) in the 2024 financial year, closing December 31, 2024, at N11.2 billion.
This marked a turnaround after VFD Group reported a pre-tax loss of N1 billion in 2023 due to macroeconomic headwinds which affected a lot of businesses locally and globally.
Net investment income surged by 95 per cent to N59.0 billion despite a spike in investment expenses to N15.5 billion from N7.4 billion in 2023.
Other metrics showed that net revenue increased by 90 per cent to N71.0 billion, while operating profit grew by an impressive 104 per cent to N48.8 billion.
The firm, listed on the main board of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, noted that the development showcased exceptional growth.
“The journey to this milestone was paved with strategic initiatives and a relentless pursuit of innovation,” it added in a statement on Friday.
The company holds investments in over 20 portfolio businesses spanning key sectors such as financial services, banking, market infrastructure, capital markets, technology, real estate, and hospitality.
As of April 22, 2025, VFD Group’s market capitalisation surged by 116 per cent to hit N121.6 billion from N56.2 billion year to date.
“These outstanding results reflect the success of our team’s efforts. As VFD Group looks to the future, it remains committed to delivering exceptional value to its customers and stakeholders,” the statement added.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
About $90 billion is expected to be generated in economic value by 2035 from new strategies developed by the Nigerian government for agribusiness expansion and livestock transformation.
To achieve this, the National Economic Council (NEC) chaired by the Vice President, Mr Kashim Shettima, has approved the establishment of a Cotton, Textile and Garment Development Board.
At the NEC meeting on Thursday in Abuja, steps to reposition Nigeria’s economy and tackle insecurity at its roots were discussed by the participants, which included the governors of the 36 states of the federation.
The new regulatory body for the cotton, textile and garment sector of Nigeria will have governors representing the six geo-political zones, with Ministers of Agriculture and Food Security, Budget and Economic Planning, and Industry, Trade and Investment as members.
It would be domiciled in the presidency, with representation of the relevant public sector stakeholders, and funded from the Textile Import Levy being collected by the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), though it would be private sector-driven.
“Nigeria is a nation where cotton can thrive in 34 states. Yet our production level remains a fraction of our potential.
“We currently produce only 13,000 metric tons, while we continue to import textiles worth hundreds of millions of dollars. This is not just an economic imbalance. It is an invitation to act,” he added.
“Our goal is not just regulation. It is a revival. This is our opportunity to re-industrialise, to empower communities, and to restore pride in local production,” the VP stated.
Also at the meeting yesterday, the council approved the establishment of the Green Imperative Project (GIP), with a national office in Abuja and regional offices across the six geopolitical zones.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed higher by 0.55 per cent on Thursday, April 24 after the prices of three stocks on the platform ended in green.
This added N10.48 billion to the market capitalisation of the bourse, closing at N1.918 trillion compared with the N1.908 trillion it ended in the preceding session.
In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went up during the session by 17.90 points to 3,276.98 points from the previous session’s 3,259.08 points.
The market was dominated by bargain-hunting activities due to renewed investor confidence. None of the securities on the NASD ended in red yesterday.
However, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc gained N1.97 to close at N21.71 per unit compared with Wednesday’s price of N19.74 per unit, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciated by 15 Kobo to end at N37.95 per share, in contrast to midweek’s value of N37.80 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc grew by 8 Kobo to settle at N1.70 per unit versus the preceding day’s price of N1.62 per unit.
During the trading day, the volume of securities transacted by the market participants increased by 19,558.9 per cent to 206.2 million units from 1.05 million units, the value of transactions jumped by 13,509.2 per cent to N354.1 million from N2.6 million, and the number of deals rose by 245.5 per cent to 38 deals from 11 deals.
When trading activities finished for the day, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 533.9 million units sold for N520.9 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 250.9 million units worth N441.0 million, and Okitipupa Plc with 153.6 million units valued at N4.9 billion.
Also, Okitipupa Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 153.6 million units valued at N4.9 billion, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 14.9 million units worth N573.2 million, and Impresit Bakolori Plc with 533.9 million units valued at N520.9 million.
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