Economy
IMF Re-Affirms 0.8% Growth Forecast Nigeria in 2017
By Dipo Olowookere
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has re-affirmed its 0.8 percent growth forecast for Nigeria’s economy in 2017.
In its World Economic Outlook, October 2017 titled ‘Seeking Sustainable Growth: Short-Term Recovery, Long-Term Challenges’ released on Tuesday, the IMF said the major threats to the country’s economy remain policy implementation, forex market segmentation, and banking system fragilities.
In the report, the IMF said the global upswing in economic activity was strengthening, noting that global growth, which in 2016 was the weakest since the global financial crisis at 3.2 percent, is projected to rise to 3.6 percent in 2017 and to 3.7 percent in 2018.
It said the growth forecasts for both 2017 and 2018 are 0.1 percentage point stronger compared with the April 2017 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast.
Broad-based upward revisions in the euro area, Japan, emerging Asia, emerging Europe, and Russia—where growth outcomes in the first half of 2017 were better than expected—more than offset downward revisions for the United States and the United Kingdom.
But the recovery is not complete: while the baseline outlook is strengthening, growth remains weak in many countries, and inflation is below target in most advanced economies, the IMF said.
It pointed out that commodity exporters, especially of fuel, are particularly hard hit as their adjustment to a sharp step down in foreign earnings continues. And while short term risks are broadly balanced, medium-term risks are still tilted to the downside.
The welcome cyclical pickup in global activity thus provides an ideal window of opportunity to tackle the key policy challenges—namely to boost potential output while ensuring its benefits are broadly shared, and to build resilience against downside risks.
A renewed multilateral effort is also needed to tackle the common challenges of an integrated global economy.
It further said growth prospects for emerging and developing economies are marked up by 0.1 percentage point for both 2017 and 2018 relative to April, primarily owing to a stronger growth projection for China.
The country’s 2017 forecast (6.8 percent, against 6.6 percent in April) reflects stronger growth outturns in the first half of 2017 as well as more buoyant external demand. For 2018, the revision mainly reflects an expectation that the authorities will maintain a sufficiently expansionary policy mix to meet their target of doubling real GDP between 2010 and 2020.
Growth forecasts have also been marked up for emerging Europe for 2017, reflecting stronger growth in Turkey and other countries in the region, for Russia for 2017 and 2018, and Brazil in 2017.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a 0.65 per cent gain on Friday, December 13, boosted by three equities admitted on the trading platform.
On the last trading session of the week, Okitipupa Plc appreciated by N2.70 to settle at N29.74 per share versus Thursday’s closing price of N27.04 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc added N2.49 to end the session at N42.85 per unit compared with the previous day’s N40.36 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 50 Kobo to close at N16.30 per share, in contrast to the preceding session’s N15.80 per share.
Consequently, the market capitalisation added N6.89 billion to settle at N1.062 trillion compared with the preceding day’s N1.055 trillion and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) gained 19.66 points to wrap the session at 3,032.16 points compared with 3,012.50 points recorded in the previous session.
Yesterday, the volume of securities traded by investors increased by 171.6 per cent to 1.2 million units from the 447,905 units recorded a day earlier, but the value of shares traded by the market participants declined by 19.3 per cent to N2.4 million from the N3.02 million achieved a day earlier, and the number of deals went down by 14.3 per cent to 18 deals from 21 deals.
At the close of business, Geo-Fluids Plc was the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 1.7 billion units worth N3.9 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with the sale of 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.3 million units sold for N5.3 million.
In the same vein, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 108.7 million units for N89.2 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with a turnover of 297.3 million units worth N5.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated further against the United States Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by N1.50 or 0.09 per cent to close at N1,533.00/$1 on Friday, December 13 versus the N1,534.50/$1 it was transacted on Thursday.
The local currency has continued to benefit from the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) introduced by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) this month.
The implementation of the forex system comes with diverse implications for all segments of the financial markets that deal with FX, including the rebound in the value of the Naira across markets.
The system instantly reflects data on all FX transactions conducted in the interbank market and approved by the CBN.
Market analysts say the publication of real-time prices and buy-sell orders data from this system has lent support to the Naira in the official market and tackled speculation.
In the official market yesterday, the domestic currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling by N12.58 to wrap the session at N1,942.19/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,954.77/£1 and against the Euro, it gained N2.44 to close at N1,612.85/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,610.41/€1.
At the black market, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the greenback on Friday by N30 to sell for N1,650/$1 compared with the preceding session’s value of N1,680/$1.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was largely positive as investors banked on recent signals, including fresh support from US President-elect, Mr Donald Trump, as well as interest rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB).
Ripple (XRP) added 7.3 per cent to sell at $2.49, Binance Coin (BNB) rose by 3.5 per cent to $728.28, Cardano (ADA) expanded by 2.4 per cent to trade at $1.11, Litecoin (LTC) increased by 2.3 per cent to $122.56, Bitcoin (BTC) gained 1.9 per cent to settle at $101,766.17, Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by 1.2 per cent to $0.4064, Solana (SOL) soared by 0.7 per cent to $226.15 and Ethereum (ETH) advanced by 0.6 per cent to $3,925.35, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
For the fourth consecutive trading session, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited closed higher on Friday by 0.63 per cent on sustained renewed buying pressure.
Apart from the energy and industrial goods sectors which closed flat, every other sector ended in the green territory, according to data obtained from the bourse.
Business Post reports that the insurance index appreciated by 1.52 per cent, the banking space improved by 0.63 per cent, and the consumer goods counter expanded by 0.46 per cent.
As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) gained 617.47 points to settle at 99,378.06 points compared with the preceding day’s 98,760.59 points and the market capitalisation went up by 375 billion to close at N60.242 trillion, in contrast to Thursday’s closing value of N59.867 trillion.
The volume of transactions on Customs Street yesterday grew by 11.13 per cent to 544.2 million shares from the 489.7 million shares transacted a day earlier.
The value of transactions increased during the session by 49.30 per cent to N10.6 billion from N7.1 billion and the number of deals went up by 1.93 per cent to 8,464 deals from the 8,304 deals posted in the previous trading session.
The busiest equity for the trading day was Japaul with the sale of 71.7 million units valued at N158.0 million, eTranzact exchanged 70.7 million units worth N477.5 million, Tantalizers sold 57.3 million units for N101.2 million, FCMB traded 33.0 million units worth N297.3 million, and Universal Insurance transacted 27.1 million units valued at N9.6 million.
A total of 36 stocks ended on the gainers’ chart, while 15 stocks finished on the losers’ table, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
The trio of Aradel Holdings, Ikeja Hotel and Caverton gained 10.00 per cent each to trade at N550.00, N8.80, and N1.98, respectively, as Africa Prudential rose by 9.87 per cent to N17.25 and Golden Guinea Breweries soared by 9.64 per cent to N8.64.
On the flip side, Austin Laz lost 10.00 per cent to close at N1.62, ABC Transport crashed by 8.00 per cent to N1.15, Royal Exchange slumped by 7.69 per cent to 60 Kobo, Secure Electronic Technology plunged by 5.26 per cent to 54 Kobo, and The Initiates crumbled by 4.26 per cent to N2.25.
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