Economy
IMF Retains 3.2% GDP Growth Forecast for Nigeria Amid Shaky Global Recovery
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund has said Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.2 per cent in 2023 in its recent world economic outlook update, retaining its forecast from January.
In the World Economic Outlook: A Rocky Recovery (2023 Apr), the IMF raised the country’s 2024 economic growth projection to 3.0 per cent from 2.9 per cent in its January update.
According to the Washington-based lender, global economic growth is expected to fall from 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.8 per cent in 2023.
It said, “The baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.8 per cent in 2023 before settling at 3.0 per cent in 2024.”
Recall that the World Bank, in its recent African Pulse report, expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 2.8 per cent amid weakening performances in non-oil activity as well as a slow uptick in the country’s oil production while rising inflation and a weak Naira persist.
The IMF report noted that the global economy appears poised for a gradual recovery from the powerful blows of the pandemic and of Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine. China is rebounding strongly following the reopening of its economy just as supply-chain disruptions are unwinding, while the dislocations to energy and food markets caused by the war are receding.
The lender noted that the tightening of monetary policy by most central banks should start to bear fruit, with inflation moving back toward its targets.
“In our latest forecast, global growth will bottom out at 2.8 per cent this year before rising modestly to 3.0 per cent in 2024,” it noted.
The report showed that global inflation will decrease, although more slowly than initially anticipated, from 8.7 per cent in 2022 to 7.0 per cent this year and 4.9 per cent in 2024.
Notably, emerging markets and developing economies are already powering ahead in many cases, with growth rates (fourth quarter over fourth quarter) jumping from 2.8 per cent in 2022 to 4.5 per cent this year.
“The slowdown is concentrated in advanced economies, especially the Euro area and the United Kingdom, where growth (also fourth quarter over fourth quarter) is expected to fall to 0.7 per cent and –0.4 per cent, respectively, this year before rebounding to 1.8 and 2.0 per cent in 2024.”
IMF, however, warned that the recent banking crisis in the US painted a picture that anything could happen in the global economy.
“Below the surface, however, turbulence is building, and the situation is quite fragile, as the recent bout of banking instability reminded us. Inflation is much stickier than anticipated, even a few months ago.
“While global inflation has declined, that reflects mostly the sharp reversal in energy and food prices. But core inflation, excluding the volatile energy and food components, has not yet peaked in many countries.
“It is expected to decline to 5.1 per cent this year (fourth quarter over fourth quarter), a sizable upward revision of 0.6 percentage point from our January update, well above target,” the report seen by Business Post showed.
Economy
NGX RegCo Cautions Investors on Recent Price Movements
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The investing public has been advised to exercise due diligence before trading stocks on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
This caution was given by the NGX Regulation Limited (NGX RegCo), the independent regulatory arm of the NGX Group Plc.
The advisory became necessary in response to notable price movements observed in the shares of certain listed companies over recent trading sessions.
On Monday, the bourse suspended trading in the shares of newly-listed Zichis Agro-allied Industries Plc. The company’s stocks gained almost 900 per cent within a month of its listing on Customs Street.
In a statement today, NGX RegCo urged investors to avoid speculative trading based on unverified information and to consult licensed intermediaries such as stockbrokers or investment advisers when needed.
It explained that its advisory is part of its standard market surveillance functions, as it serves as a measured reminder for investors to prioritise informed and disciplined decision-making.
The notice emphasised that the Exchange will continue to monitor market activities closely in line with its mandate to ensure a fair, orderly, and transparent market.
“NGX RegCo encourages all investors to base their decisions on publicly available information, including a thorough assessment of company fundamentals, financial performance, and risk profile,” a part of the disclosure said.
It reassured all stakeholders that the NGX remains stable, well-regulated, and resilient, saying the platform continues to foster an environment where investors can participate with confidence, supported by robust oversight and transparent market operations.
“Our primary responsibility is to maintain a level playing field where market participants can trade with confidence, backed by timely and accurate information.
“This advisory is a routine communication, reinforcing that sound fundamentals, not speculation, remain the foundation for sustainable investment outcomes. We are fully committed to preserving the integrity and stability of our market,” the chief executive of NGX RegCo, Mr Olufemi Shobanjo, stated.
Economy
Stronger Taxpayer Confidence, Others Should Determine Tax Reform Success—Tegbe
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The chairman of the National Tax Policy Implementation Committee (NTPIC), Mr Joseph Tegbe, has tasked the Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) to measure the success of the new tax laws by higher voluntary compliance rates, lower administrative costs, fewer disputes, faster resolution cycles, and stronger taxpayer confidence.
Speaking at the 2026 Leadership Retreat of the agency, Mr Tegbe said, “Sustainable revenue performance is built on trust and efficiency, not enforcement intensity,” emphasising that the legitimacy and predictability of the system are more critical than punitive measures.
He underscored that the country’s tax reform journey is at a critical juncture where effective implementation will determine long-term fiscal outcomes.
The NTPIC chief stressed that tax policy must serve as an enabler of governance, and should embody simplicity, equity, predictability, and administrability at scale.
These principles, he explained, foster voluntary compliance, reduce operational friction, and strengthen investor confidence. He warned that ad-hoc adjustments or policy drift could undermine reform momentum, unsettle businesses, and deter investment, which thrives on predictable rules rather than shifting announcements. Structured sequencing, clear transition mechanisms, and continuous feedback between policymakers and administrators are therefore critical to sustaining reform credibility.
Mr Tegbe further argued that revenue reform cannot succeed in isolation. Achieving sustainable gains requires a whole-of-government approach, leveraging robust taxpayer identification systems, integrated financial data, efficient dispute resolution, and harmonised coordination across federal and sub-national levels. This approach, he said, reduces leakages, eliminates multiple taxation, and reinforces confidence in the system.
He noted that the passage of four new tax laws marks only the beginning of a broader reform agenda, describing the initiative as a systemic recalibration of Nigeria’s fiscal architecture, rather than a routine policy update.
He further asserted that the true measure of success will be the credibility of implementation, not the design of the laws themselves.
The NRS, he noted, functions as the nation’s “Revenue System Integrator,” with outcomes reflecting the strength of an interconnected ecosystem that encompasses policy clarity, enforcement consistency, digital infrastructure, dispute resolution efficiency, and intergovernmental coordination.
Economy
NUPENG Seeks Clarity on New Oil, Gas Executive Order
By Adedapo Adesanya
The National Union of Natural and Gas Workers (NUPENG) has expressed deep concern over the Executive Order by President Bola Tinubu mandating the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to remit directly to the federation account.
In a statement signed by its president, Mr William Akporeha, over the weekend in Lagos, the union noted that the absence of detailed public engagement had naturally generated tension within the sector and heightened restiveness among workers, who are anxious to know how the new directive may affect their employment, welfare and job security, especially as it affects NNPC and other major operations in the oil and gas sector.
It pointed out that the industry remained the backbone of Nigeria’s economy, contributing significantly to national revenue, foreign exchange earnings, and employment.
The NUPENG president affirmed that any policy shift, particularly one introduced through an Executive Order, has far-reaching consequences for regulatory frameworks, Investment decisions, operational standards, and labour relations within the sector.
According to him, “there is an urgent need for clarity on the scope and objectives of the Executive Order -What precise reforms or adjustments does it introduce? “Its implications for the Petroleum Industry Act -Does the Order amend, interpret, or expand existing provisions under PIA?
“Impact on workers and existing labour agreements-Will it affect job security, conditions of service, Collective Bargaining agreements or ongoing restructuring processes within the industry? “Effects on indigenous participation and local content development -How will it affect Nigerian companies and employment opportunities for citizens?”
He warned that without proper consultation and explanation, misinterpretations of the Executive Order may spread across the industry, potentially destabilising operations and undermining industrial harmony that stakeholders have worked hard to sustain.
“Though our union remains committed to constructive engagement, national development and stability of the oil and gas sector, however, we are duty-bound and constitutionally bound to protect the rights and welfare and job security of our members whose livelihoods depend on a clear, fair and predictable policy framework,” Mr Akporeha further stated.
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