Economy
IMF Retains 3.2% GDP Growth Forecast for Nigeria Amid Shaky Global Recovery
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund has said Nigeria’s economy would grow by 3.2 per cent in 2023 in its recent world economic outlook update, retaining its forecast from January.
In the World Economic Outlook: A Rocky Recovery (2023 Apr), the IMF raised the country’s 2024 economic growth projection to 3.0 per cent from 2.9 per cent in its January update.
According to the Washington-based lender, global economic growth is expected to fall from 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.8 per cent in 2023.
It said, “The baseline forecast is for growth to fall from 3.4 per cent in 2022 to 2.8 per cent in 2023 before settling at 3.0 per cent in 2024.”
Recall that the World Bank, in its recent African Pulse report, expects Nigeria’s economy to grow by 2.8 per cent amid weakening performances in non-oil activity as well as a slow uptick in the country’s oil production while rising inflation and a weak Naira persist.
The IMF report noted that the global economy appears poised for a gradual recovery from the powerful blows of the pandemic and of Russia’s unprovoked war on Ukraine. China is rebounding strongly following the reopening of its economy just as supply-chain disruptions are unwinding, while the dislocations to energy and food markets caused by the war are receding.
The lender noted that the tightening of monetary policy by most central banks should start to bear fruit, with inflation moving back toward its targets.
“In our latest forecast, global growth will bottom out at 2.8 per cent this year before rising modestly to 3.0 per cent in 2024,” it noted.
The report showed that global inflation will decrease, although more slowly than initially anticipated, from 8.7 per cent in 2022 to 7.0 per cent this year and 4.9 per cent in 2024.
Notably, emerging markets and developing economies are already powering ahead in many cases, with growth rates (fourth quarter over fourth quarter) jumping from 2.8 per cent in 2022 to 4.5 per cent this year.
“The slowdown is concentrated in advanced economies, especially the Euro area and the United Kingdom, where growth (also fourth quarter over fourth quarter) is expected to fall to 0.7 per cent and –0.4 per cent, respectively, this year before rebounding to 1.8 and 2.0 per cent in 2024.”
IMF, however, warned that the recent banking crisis in the US painted a picture that anything could happen in the global economy.
“Below the surface, however, turbulence is building, and the situation is quite fragile, as the recent bout of banking instability reminded us. Inflation is much stickier than anticipated, even a few months ago.
“While global inflation has declined, that reflects mostly the sharp reversal in energy and food prices. But core inflation, excluding the volatile energy and food components, has not yet peaked in many countries.
“It is expected to decline to 5.1 per cent this year (fourth quarter over fourth quarter), a sizable upward revision of 0.6 percentage point from our January update, well above target,” the report seen by Business Post showed.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Analysts at Coronation Research are projecting the inflation rate for February 2026 to moderate by 0.98 per cent to 14.12 per cent from the 15.10 per cent recorded in the preceding month.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation numbers today, Monday, March 16, 2026.
In a note released over the weekend, Coronation Research disclosed that the fall in the average prices of goods and services for last month would be impacted by a decline in the prices of food items.
“Our projection is supported by favourable base effects, easing food price pressures, and slight appreciation of the Naira,” a part of the report sighted by Business Post read.
The organisation revealed that the ongoing government interventions in the agricultural sector to improve food supply conditions are beginning to ease pressures within the food component of the consumer basket.
It further stated that “appreciation of the Naira to N1,363.40/1$ from N1,386.55/1$ in January is expected to reduce the cost of imported food items.”
However, it stressed that the ongoing US/Israel-Iran war was capable of reversing the deflationary trends because of the rising global energy prices.
“Also, the $200 million financing approved by the African Development Bank (AfDB) Group to scale up priority agricultural investments is expected to be disbursed in March, but its impact is likely to materialise in the medium to long term, with limited immediate effects on food supply and prices,” it said.
Coronation Research also disclosed that the recent energy market developments could keep core inflation sticky in the near term, as average Bonny Light crude oil prices rose to $72.33 per barrel in February 2026 from $68.04 per barrel in January.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Socio-Economic Rights and Accountability Project (SERAP) has called on President Bola Tinubu to order an investigation into the alleged N5.9 billion rebranding cost of the old Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation into the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
In a Sunday statement, SERAP urged Mr Tinubu to direct the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi, alongside anti-corruption agencies, to look into the matter.
The group further urged the President to direct the panel to identify and invite officials who authorised the payment and contractors who handled the project for questioning.
“We’ve urged President Bola Tinubu to urgently direct the Attorney General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi, SAN, and appropriate anti-corruption agencies to promptly investigate the alleged expenditure of about ₦5.9 billion reportedly spent on the rebranding of the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) to the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL).
“We also urged him to direct the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) and the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC) to identify the officials who approved and paid the amount, and the contractor(s) who collected the money, and to invite them for questioning,” the organisation stated.
SERAP further alleged that the NNPC reportedly paid N2.9 billion for incorporation expenses from petroleum product proceeds, while the National Petroleum Investment Management Services (NAPIMS) also charged N2.9 billion against crude oil revenue for the same purpose.
The group argued that the total cost was valued at about N5.9 billion, which was spent by the NNPCL for the rebranding.
“There ought to be full transparency and accountability regarding the reported ₦5.9 billion spent on rebranding NNPC to NNPCL.”
SERAP emphasised that Nigerians have the right to know who approved the expenditure, who received the money, and whether due process was followed.
“Any investigation into the rebranding project should determine whether the N5.9 billion represents value for money, lawful spending of public funds, and compliance with transparency and accountability requirements,” the statement concluded.
Business Post reports that NNPC became a limited liability company on July 1, 2022, under the Companies and Allied Matters Act (CAMA) in line with the implementation of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which was signed into law on August 16, 2021, by late President Muhammadu Buhari.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its stay in the south for the fourth consecutive session after it shed 1.18 per cent on Friday, March 13.
The unlisted securities market recorded a loss despite closing without a price decliner, and ending with two price gainers led by Geo Fluids Plc, which gained 1o Kobo to sell at N3.10 per share compared with the previous day’s N3.00 per share. Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc appreciated during the session by 2 Kobo to trade at 54 Kobo per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of 52 Kobo per unit.
When the market closed for the day, the market capitalisation lost N29.83 billion to close at N2.489 trillion compared with the N2.519 trillion it finished a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) crashed by 49.84 points to 4,160.46 points from 4,210.31 points.
Market activity improved yesterday, as the volume of transactions rose 179.5 per cent to 10.4 million units from 3.7 million units, but the value of trades declined by 68.4 per cent to N29.9 million from N95.0 million, while the number of deals weakened by 11.5 per cent to 46 deals from 52 deals.
Central Securities Clearing Systems (CSCS) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion, Okitipupa Plc followed with 6.4 million units traded at N1.1 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc transacted 6.3 million units for N584.3 million.
Resourcery Plc ended the trading session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.6 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 130.8 million units valued at N504.5 million, and CSCS Plc with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion.
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