Economy
IMF Suggests VAT Hike, Fiscal, Exchange Rate Reforms to Nigeria
By Dipo Olowookere
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has advised Nigeria to consider further increasing the value-added tax (VAT) from the existing 7.5 per cent in order to improve revenue.
The global lender said this would be necessary because the current consolidated government revenue-to-gross domestic product (GDP) ratio at 7.5 per cent “remains among the lowest in the world.”
According to the organisation, if the Nigerian government fails to implement these and other suggestions, some significant risks could put pressure on the nation’s economy.
In the third quarter of 2020, Nigeria slipped into another recession under President Muhammadu Buhari but in the next quarter, it exited and since then, it has been struggling to recover fully.
Last month, the Executive Board of the IMF concluded its consultation with Nigeria and on Monday, February 7, 2022, a statement was released containing the thoughts of the team on the nation.
In the statement obtained by Business Post, the financial institution said socio-economic conditions remain a challenge in the country as levels of food insecurity have risen and the poverty rate is estimated to have risen during the pandemic as “a worsening of violence and insecurity could also derail the [economic] recovery.”
But in order to absorb these shocks, the IMF advised the authorities to carry out major reforms in the fiscal, exchange rate, trade, and governance areas.
It also urged the government to urgently “create policy space and reduce debt sustainability risks,” calling for “significant domestic revenue mobilization, including by further increasing the value-added tax rate, improving tax compliance, and rationalizing tax incentives.”
The IMF further advised Nigeria to remove “untargeted fuel subsidies, with compensatory measures for the poor and transparent use of saved resources.”
On the exchange rate reforms, it said this “should be accompanied by macroeconomic policies to contain inflation, structural reforms to improve transparency and governance, and clear communications regarding exchange rate policy.”
However, the global bank commended the authorities for the proactive approach it took to contain COVID-19 infection rates and fatalities in the country, though it stressed that low vaccination rates expose Nigeria to future pandemic waves and new variants, including the ongoing Omicron variant.
The IMF also said Nigeria’s ratification of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) could also yield a positive boost to the non-oil sector while oil production could rebound, supported by the more generous terms of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited tumbled by 1.12 per cent on Wednesday as a result of selling pressure in three of the five key sectors of the bourse.
Yesterday, the insurance space rose by 0.71 per cent and the energy counter appreciated by 0.02 per cent. But these gains were erased by the three other sectors, with the consumer goods index down by 4.93 per cent, the industrial goods sector down by 0.42 per cent, and the banking segment down by 0.30 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) receded by 2,756.48 points to 243,967.09 points from 246,723.57 points, and the market capitalisation dropped by N1.762 trillion to close at N157.494 trillion compared with Tuesday’s N159.256 trillion.
The worst-performing stock for the day was BUA Foods, which lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N760.60. Unilever Nigeria shed 9.97 per cent to close at N131.40, John Holt depreciated by 9.90 per cent to N9.10, AVA Capital declined by 9.50 per cent to N8.10, and Austin Laz crashed by 8.81 per cent to N2.90.
The best-performing stock for the session was International Energy Insurance, which chalked up 10.00 per cent to quote at N4.40. Ecobank gained 9.93 per cent to settle at N71.40, Trans-Nationwide Express expanded by 9.77 per cent to N2.36, CWG grew by 9.74 per cent to N21.40, and Cornerstone Insurance improved by 6.80 per cent to N5.50.
Yesterday, 1.5 billion shares were sold for N20.9 billion in 39,085 deals compared with the 3.9 billion shares worth N32.4 billion exchanged in 45,608 deals a day earlier, representing a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 61.54 per cent, 35.49 per cent, and 14.30 per cent, respectively.
On top of the activity chart was Fortis Global Insurance, with a turnover of 853.2 million units sold for N2.6 billion. Universal Insurance exchanged 251.8 million units worth N214.1 million, Chams transacted 40.0 million units valued at N181.0 million, First Holdco traded 28.3 million units worth N3.9 billion, and Access Holdings sold 25.4 million units valued at N702.4 million.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
As part of the implementation of the T+1 settlement cycle in the Nigerian capital market, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has fixed 5:00 pm on the first business day after a transaction (T+1) as the settlement deadline for equities and commodities traded and settled through the Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS).
In a circular on Wednesday to capital market operators and other market participants, the capital market regulator noted that all transactions in the affected securities must be fully paid by 5:00 pm T+1 to ensure compliance with the standard Delivery versus Payment (DvP) settlement procedure.
It warned that where a broker/dealer’s trading account is not adequately funded to meet its settlement obligation within the prescribed period, the default would be managed in line with the CSCS Default Management Procedure and the applicable transaction settlement guidelines of the relevant exchange.
The commission also clarified that foreign portfolio investors are not required to prefund their accounts for trades in the Nigerian capital market.
However, it said capital market operators facilitating transactions on behalf of foreign portfolio investors must establish and maintain appropriate controls and processes to ensure timely funding and completion of settlements within the prescribed timeframe.
The clarification follows earlier SEC circulars on the implementation of the T+2 settlement cycle for equities transactions, issued on June 3, 2025, and the transition to the T+1 settlement cycle, issued on May 15, 2026.
The T+1 cycle means that eligible securities transactions are settled one business day after the trade date, reducing the period between execution and final settlement.
The SEC said the transition represents a significant milestone in its efforts to build a more efficient, resilient and internationally aligned trading and post-trade environment, adding that the shorter settlement cycle would improve settlement efficiency, reduce counterparty risk, enhance liquidity and strengthen the competitiveness of the Nigerian capital market.
According to the agency, the reforms would ultimately improve the attractiveness of the Nigerian market to both domestic and international investors.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices slightly rose on Wednesday as attacks on ships in the Middle East continued and talks to end the Iran war hit an impasse.
Brent futures gained 7 cents to trade at $88.98 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 7 cents to $83.27 per barrel.
The US and Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis reported separate attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on Tuesday, two crucial export routes for Middle Eastern oil and gas in addition to the Suez Canal.
Reuters reported that there continued to be no discussions between Iran and the US to extend their ceasefire because, from Iran’s perspective, the deal had no start date and so there was nothing to extend.
Shipping data showed the number of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz fell to a one-week low of eight on Tuesday. Before the war, 125 to 140 vessels passed through the crucial waterway each day.
The US military, meanwhile, said an American Navy MH-60 helicopter fired two Hellfire missiles to disable the steering gear of a Panama-flagged cargo ship.
The ship ignored repeated warnings to stop violating a naval blockade on Iranian ports, the US Central Command said.
Forecasters including the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Administration (IEA) revised down their oil demand outlooks as US-Iran talks stall.
OPEC lowered its world oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day, it said in its monthly oil market report.
The International Energy Agency cut its 2026 demand projections and now expects a 1.6 million barrels per day contraction this year. However, the Paris-based agency is also predicting a 4.3 million barrels per day drop in supply this year, and an overall 2026 deficit of around 1.27 million barrels per day.
According to the IEA, Middle East oil flows briefly returned to pre-war levels in early July, with loadings reaching 20 million bpd, before falling to 12 million bpd later in the month. Middle East production remained 8.3 million barrels per day below pre-war levels in July.
The IEA cited the Hormuz shutdown, the US blockade of Iranian exports, attacks in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and reduced Kazakh CPC Blend exports among the forces keeping global supply below demand.
