By Adedapo Adesanya
Instead of Nigeria being joyous over the rising price of crude oil in the international market, the opposite is the case as the country may not be able to earn more from the commodity it has in abundance.
Crude oil sales account for about 90 per cent of the country’s foreign exchange (FX) earnings but the double-whammy reality of Brent crude hitting $130 per barrel is a big headache for the nation.
Following the continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the United States has confirmed that it is in talks with European allies to potentially sanction Russian crude oil in response to ongoing aggression in Ukraine, sending oil prices briefly above $130.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted over the weekend that the country is “… now in very active discussions with our European partners about banning the import of Russian oil to our countries, while of course at the same time maintaining a steady global supply of oil.”
Analysts noted that if Russia’s oil is cut off, the market could face a 5 million barrel shortfall which could push oil prices to $200 per barrel.
The situation is compacted by stalling talks with Iran over a potential new nuclear deal.
For Nigeria, the rise in prices means the federal government will pay more money on fuel subsidy with the landing cost of petrol increasing on the back of the rise in crude oil price.
This means that the country will see an increase in the price of petrol at the pump as well as a rise in other basic needs since mobility is a critical factor in the economy.
Despite being Africa’s largest crude producer, moribund refineries coupled with infrastructural underdevelopment makes Nigeria one of the most import-dependent countries in the world.
And with the recent postponement of fuel subsidy removal by 18 months, it means that the petrol import bill and subsidy payment will increase as a result.
President Muhammadu Buhari had said rising crude oil prices presented a great opportunity for Nigeria, especially with the passage of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).
Represented by the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources, Mr Timipre Sylva, while speaking at last week’s 5th Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) in Abuja, he said there was now a level of certainty for the regulatory, administrative and fiscal framework for the industry.
“With the PIA in place, there should be no excuses. The enabling investment environment which has been the bane of the industry has been taken care of by provisions in the PIA,” the Minister stated.
This had been in the context of utilisation of gas because last month, Mr Sylva in an interview with Bloomberg, expressed fears of the impact of high oil prices on the economy.
He maintained that Nigeria’s comfort zone in terms of oil prices was between $70 and $80 per barrel.
He said, “I’m hopeful the prices will move around, maybe $80, maybe $70. We are hoping it will come down to somewhere around $70 to $80, which will be sustainable for us by the end of the year.
“We are working hard on that (production increase). What happened to us was the fact that we had to cut back at the time, and, of course, in such a way you can’t really cut back mathematically.
“So, you want to cut back 100,000 barrels that you shut out, maybe we’ll shut down about 200,000 to 300,000 barrels. So at the end of the day, we over-complied because we just couldn’t achieve it mathematically.
“In trying to cut down, we cut down too much. And now to come back, it’s not been easy for us to get the wells back to production.”
Now, it is almost double this threshold and have been projected to stoke inflationary fears which will further hamper Nigeria’s economy and as a result be felt by the average Nigerian.
Modupe Gbadeyanka