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Economy

Moving Towards Debt Sustainability

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external debt service

By FSDH Research

The drop in government’s revenue in the face of the rising government expenditure has led to an increase in Nigeria’s public debt (external and domestic debt).

Consequently, the ratio of debt service-to-revenue has reached unsustainable levels. The Debt Management Office (DMO) in its 2016 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) report notes that the debt service-to-revenue ratio (external and domestic debt service) of the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN), excluding states and local governments breached the country’s specific threshold of 28%.

However, the FGN is taking steps towards debt sustainability by diversifying its debt profile through the issuance of the FGN Savings Bond, Diaspora Bond and Sukuk.

Additionally, the DMO disclosed that the FGN plans to refinance domestic debt, particularly the high cost Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTB) by issuing US$3bn in foreign debt of longer tenor. The planned refinancing is in line with the debt management strategy of the FGN for 2016-2019, with the overall objective of reducing its total cost of borrowing to achieve the country’s strategic target of an optimal debt mix of 60% and 40% for domestic and external debts, respectively.

Our analysis of the data from the DMO as at June 2017 shows that Nigeria’s total debt stock stood at N19.64trn, representing an increase of 13.12% from the December 2016 figure of N17.36trn.

A breakdown of the debt stock shows that external debt accounted for 23.44% (N4.60trn), while domestic debt stock accounted for 76.56% (N15.03trn).

If the DMO were to move the external debt position as at June 2017 to the planned optimal level of 40%, it means that it would have to refinance N3.25trn of the local debt in favour of the external debt.

Looking at the FGN’s debt structure, the domestic debt component stood at N12.03trn as at June 2017. NTB, which is the short-term debt, accounted for 30.77% or N3.70trn of the domestic debt of the FGN. This is higher than the target of 25% under the debt management strategy.

Consequently, the FGN is likely to replace the short-term debt with long-term debt to achieve its debt structure target. The planned restructuring of the debt stock of the FGN will result in a reduction in the average weighted cost of borrowing.

This reduction in the cost of borrowing will be as a result of lower interest rates in the international market and a reduction in the holdings of high cost NTBs.

The average yield on the 364-Day NTB from January till September 20, 2017 is 22.50% compared with the average yield on the FGN 6.375% July 2023 Eurobond of 5.85%.

Following the FSDH Research report issued on August 28, 2017 titled “A Drop in the Nigerian Treasury Bills Yield Imminent” the yield on the 364-Day NTB dropped from 22.72% in August 30, 2017 to 20.47% on September 21, 2017. The yield on the FGN Bond has also dropped in the market.

The total amount of domestic debt service in 2016 stood at N1.20trn and represents 58% of the federal allocation disbursed to the FGN. As at June 2017, the total domestic debt service stood at N684.45bn, representing 62% of the total FGN allocation of N1.10trn for the period. This represents an improvement from total domestic debt service as at March 2017, which stood at N449bn representing 82% of the total FGN allocation for the period.

We note that FGN revenue has been challenged in the last two years on account of the drop in oil revenue.

Furthermore, the fact that a significant part of government revenue goes towards interest payments means that little revenue is left for the government to undertake capital projects. The FGN needs to improve critical infrastructure in the country to increase the competitiveness of the economy to attract investments and maintain economic growth.

This effort coupled with the current tax reform of the FGN, will increase revenue accrued to the government and improve the debt service-to-revenue ratio. As the yields on the FGN securities continue to drop there will be opportunities for more activities in the corporate bond market.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Zichis Confirms Intention to Borrow from Capital Market

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zichis

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

One of the newest members of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, Zichis Agro-Allied Industries Plc, has confirmed its intention to approach the capital market to raise funds, subject to shareholder and regulatory approval.

However, it denied reports suggesting it’s “set to undertake an Initial Public Offering (IPO) or related capital raising activity.”

In a notice on Monday, the firm affirmed proposing “to seek shareholders’ approval at its forthcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM) to raise additional capital, which may be through equity, debt, or a combination of both, subject to regulatory approvals and market conditions.”

“At this stage, the structure, timing, and details of any such capital raising have not been finalised, and no specific transaction has been concluded,” a part of the statement signed by the company secretary, Solomon Itsede, stressed.

Zichis expressed its commitment to upholding “the highest standards of corporate governance, transparency, and timely disclosure.”

“Accordingly, any material corporate actions or capital market activities will be formally communicated through the appropriate regulatory channels,” it said, advising shareholders and the investing public “to rely solely on official disclosures and filings made by the company through the NGX and other authorised regulatory platforms when making investment decisions.”

Zichis welcomed the “continued interest of investors and market participants in its operations and performance,” promising to remain focused on delivering sustainable value through disciplined strategic execution.

It also lauded the continued support of its shareholders, saying it remains committed to maintaining transparency in all its communications.

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Economy

NERC Orders Transparent Reporting of Transmission Loss Factors

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NERC

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) has issued a directive to ensure transparency in reporting the Regional Electricity Transmission Loss Factor, as it remains above the 7 per cent threshold.

In a public notice posted on its official X (formerly Twitter) on Monday, the order, contained in No. NERC/2026/026 is aimed at improving transparency and efficiency in Nigeria’s power grid through enhanced reporting of Regional Transmission Loss Factors (TLF).

The regulator disclosed that the order is backed by the provisions of the Electricity Act 2023, which enables the commission to regulate, monitor, and ensure efficiency in the power sector.

According to the statement, the Data from the Nigerian Independent System Operator (NISO) indicate that the national average TLF was 8.71 per cent in 2024 but was reduced to 7.24 per cent in 2025.

The statement added that the report exceeds the 7 per cent benchmark approved by NERC in the Multi-Year Tariff Order (MYTO).

The statement reads, “The Order dated 8 April 2026 establishes a formal framework for reporting transmission losses across regions operated by the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN).

“Taking effect from 13 April 2026, the Order is backed by provisions of the Electricity Act 2023, which empower NERC to regulate, monitor, and ensure efficiency in the electricity market.”

The directive reads, “NISO to install smart meters at all boundary regional interconnection points by December 2026 to accurately measure energy flows for each region of the transmission network.

“NISO to measure and document all energy flow of power transformers at transmission substations.

“NISO to file quarterly reports on TLF to NERC on a regional basis.”

It added, “TCN to file an action plan by July 2026 on the reduction of TLF to a value within the 7 per cent approved benchmarks in the regions.

“TCN to ensure that TLF across transmission regions shall not exceed 6.5 per cent by December 2026.”

NERC concluded that the order is designed to strengthen accountability in transmission operations and support better grid performance through structured loss reporting.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Plans Cross-border Listing of Shares

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Dangote Refinery Crude Supply to Local Refineries

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian businessman, Mr Aliko Dangote, is planning to list shares of his $20 billion oil refinery on multiple African stock exchanges.

The landmark cross-border public offering on the continent was disclosed by the chief executive of the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE), Mr Frank Mwiti, following a meeting held last week in Lagos between Mr Dangote and several heads of African exchanges.

Last year, Mr Dangote unveiled plans to list a 10 per cent stake in his Lagos-based refinery on the Nigerian Exchange this year.

According to a Bloomberg report, citing an email from the chief executive of FirstCap, Mr Ukandu Ukandu, Stanbic IBTC Capital Limited, Vetiva Advisory Services Limited, and FirstCap Limited have been appointed as advisers for the initial public offering of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE.

Mr Mwiti said the proposed listing is designed to cut across multiple markets and deepen investor participation across the continent.

“The plan is to structure a pan-African IPO,” he said.

Bloomberg also reported that a spokesman for the Dangote Group confirmed that discussions had taken place between Mr Dangote and exchange officials but declined to provide further details.

In February 2026, Mr Dangote said that the IPO could be launched within the next five months.

“But individually Nigerians too will have an opportunity in the next maximum four or five months, they will actually be able to buy their shares,” he said at the time.

He added that investors would have flexibility in how they receive returns.

“People will have a choice either to get their dividends in naira or to get their dividends in dollars because we earn in Dollars.”

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