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Nigeria Reduces Debt-to-GDP Ratio to 19%

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Debts

By Dipo Olowookere

The debt-to-GDP (gross domestic product) ratio of Nigeria has slightly reduced to 19.00 per cent from 19.09 per cent within a period of 12 months, Business Post investigation has shown.

According to a document from the Budget Office sighted by Business Post, in 2019, the debt-to-GDP ratio, which measures the ability of the country to repay its debts when compared with the value of goods and services it produces, was trimmed to 19.00 per cent in 2019 from 19.09 per cent in 2018.

This newspaper gathered that in 2018, the total debt profile of the country, according to data obtained from the Debt Management Office (DMO), stood at N24.4 trillion, while the nominal GDP, as data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed, was N127.8 trillion.

A year later, according to the debt office, the nation’s total debt profile rose to N27.4 trillion, while the nominal GDP was N144.2 trillion.

In 2017, the debt-GDP ratio of Nigeria was at 21 per cent, according to the then Minister of Finance, Mrs Kemi Adeosun, while speaking at an event in Ogun State, which took place in March 2018.

In recent times, there have been talks about the rising debt profile of Nigeria, especially under the present administration of President Muhammadu Buhari, who some observers said has a huge appetite for borrowing.

They claimed that with the present rate of borrowing, both from domestic and foreign sources, there would be a time Nigeria will not be able to payback.

One of the loans that got many people talking was the ones from China, a country most analysts said does not have mercy on loan defaulters, citing the experiences of Zambia, Djibouti and others as examples.

But the Nigerian authorities have said there’s nothing to fret about because the country, which is Africa’s largest economy and producer of crude oil, was capable of meeting its loan obligations.

Last Monday, the stats office said the country’s economy as measured by the GDP, contracted in the second quarter of 2020 by 6.10 per cent. This was in contrast to the 1.87 per cent growth achieved in the first quarter of this year.

The decline was largely attributable to significantly lower levels of both domestic and international economic activity during the quarter, which resulted from nationwide shutdown efforts aimed at containing the COVID-19 pandemic.

But the presidency has asked Nigerians not to panic over the depression suffered by the nation’s economy in the second quarter of the year, saying when compared with other better economies, the country fared better.

According to the Special Adviser to the President on Media and Publicity, Mr Femi Adesina, “It also appears muted compared to the outcomes in several other countries, including large economies such as the US (-33 per cent), UK (-20 per cent), France (-14 per cent), Germany (-10 per cent), Italy (-12.4 per cent), Canada (-12.0 per cent), Israel (-29 per cent), Japan (-8 per cent), South Africa (projection -20 per cent to -50 per cent), with the notable exception of only China (+3 per cent).”

For the debt-to-GDP ratio, the Budget Office headed by Mr Ben Akabueze, the percentage “is within the country-specific debt limit of 40 per cent and below the maximum threshold of 55 per cent recommended by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank for countries in Nigeria’s peer group, as well as the West African Monetary Zone Convergence threshold of 70 per cent.”

Last month, the Mission Chief and Senior Resident Representative of the IMF for Nigeria, Ms Jesmin Rahman, projected that Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio may rise to 36.5 per cent in 2020 as a result of the spike in government borrowing in the short-term, describing it as worrisome and should be closely monitored.

“We project this (debt-to-GDP ratio) to increase to 36.5 per cent this year, which is a jump and then stay around 38 per cent of GDP in the medium term,” she was quoted as saying during an interview hosted by Citibank Nigeria in collaboration with the American Business Council.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

Stock Exchange Suffers Heavy Loss as Investors Pull Out N1.1trn

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Local Stock Exchange

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited came under heavy selling pressure on Tuesday, going down by 1.66 per cent as investors embarked on profit-taking after most stocks on the trading platform gained in the past few trading sessions.

It was observed that the industrial goods sector was the most affected yesterday as it went down by 4.99 per cent due to the decline suffered by Dangote Cement and others.

The insurance continued its downward trend during the day as it lost 2.80 per cent, the consumer goods counter fell by 0.27 per cent, and the banking index shed 0.10 per cent, while the energy sector appreciated by 0.29 per cent.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) deflated by 1,745.16 points to settle at 103,622.09 points compared with the previous trading day’s 105,367.25 points and the market capitalisation moderated by N1.1 trillion to finish at N63.188 trillion versus Monday’s N64.252 trillion.

Business Post reports that investor sentiment remained weak on Tuesday after the bourse ended with 41 depreciating equities and 23 appreciating equities, representing a negative market breadth index.

Honeywell Flour lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N9.54, Dangote Cement declined by 9.98 per cent to N431.00, Julius Berger crashed by 9.98 per cent to N139.80, Sovereign Trust Insurance decreased by 9.68 per cent to N1.12, and Prestige Assurance tumbled by 9.30 per cent to N1.17.

On the flip side, Northern Nigerian Flour Mills appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N45.10, Livestock Feeds grew by 9.91 per cent to N6.10, Academy Press expanded by 9.90 per cent to N3.22, University Press increased by 9.82 per cent to N4.81, and Neimeth gained 9.76 per cent to quote at N3.15.

During the session, market participants bought and sold 503.3 million shares valued at N12.6 billion in 12,900 deals compared with the 505.8 million shares worth N8.1 billion traded in 14,259 deals a day earlier, indicating a rise in the trading value by 55.56 per cent and a drop in the trading volume and number of deals by 0.49 per cent and 9.53 per cent, respectively.

The most active stock for the session was GTCO with 54.4 million units worth N3.2 billion, Nigerian Breweries transacted 32.2 million units for N1.0 billion, Universal Insurance traded 30.8 million units valued at N22.6 million, AIICO Insurance exchanged 26.6 million units worth N47.2 million, and Chams transacted 20.0 million units valued at N40.9 million.

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Economy

FG Offers 18% Interest on Savings Bonds

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FGN Savings Bonds

By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government is offering two new savings bonds with interest rates between 17 and 18 per cent through the Debt Management Office (DMO).

In a statement by the agency, the country said retail investors can purchase the two-year bond maturing in January 2027 at 17.23 per cent interest, while the three-year paper maturing in January 2028 at a coupon rate of 18.23 per cent.

Bonds are very safe financial instrument that serve as investments because they are backed by the federal government, which promises to pay back the money.

According to the DMO, people can buy these bonds starting January 13, 2025, until January 17, 2025, with allotment expected on January 22, 2025, and the interest to be paid to investors every three months – in April, July, October, and January.

These bonds have some special features. They are tax-free under both company and personal tax laws.

Big investors like pension funds and trustees are allowed to buy them and each bond costs N1,000 each.

However, interested investor can only  buy at least N5,000 worth, and can’t buy more than N50 million.

This comes after the Ms Patience Oniha-led debt office said the Nigerian government was offering three bonds worth N150 billion in September 2024.

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Economy

Reps Express Readiness to Pass Tax Reform Bills

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reps summon CBN

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The House of Representatives has said it would make efforts to pass the controversial tax reform bills forwarded to the National Assembly by President Bola Tinubu last year.

Mr Tinubu, in a bid to improve revenue of the government, asked the parliament to pass the bills, but this has been resisted mostly by northern lawmakers and others.

At the resumption of plenary session on Tuesday in Abuja, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Mr Abbas Tajudeen, assured that the green chamber of the legislative arm of government would prioritise the tax reform bills.

“The legislative agenda of the House for 2025 prioritises the passage of the Appropriation Bill and the Tax Reform Bills, both of which are pivotal to economic recovery and fiscal stability.

“These reforms are essential for broadening the tax base, improving compliance and reducing dependency on external borrowing.

“The House will ensure that these reforms are equitable and considerate of the needs of all Nigerians, particularly the most vulnerable,” Mr Abbas said through the Deputy Speaker, Mr Ben Kalu, who presided over the session.

He also expressed grief over the loss of lives in stampedes in Ibadan, Abuja and Anambra State last month due to hardship in the country.

Several Nigerians died in the stampedes while trying to receive palliatives given to alleviate their sufferings.

“Tragic events, such as the stampedes in Ibadan, Abuja and Okija, during the distribution of palliative aid, underline the urgent need for improved planning and safety protocols in humanitarian efforts. On behalf of the House, I extend our deepest sympathies to the families and communities affected.

“These incidents serve as a stark reminder of the socio-economic hardships facing our citizens and the imperative for policies that tackle hunger and poverty at their roots.

“Turning to the economy, 2024 presented both difficulties and opportunities. While inflation remains a pressing concern, progress in GDP growth and the positive trajectory of economic reforms provide hope for a more stable and prosperous 2025,” the Speaker said.

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