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Nigeria’s Economy to Grow in 2022 Amid Global Downturn—IMF

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Nigeria's Digital Economy

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s economy has been projected to grow this year by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) despite cutting its global growth forecasts because of the war in Ukraine.

In its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) titled War Sets Back the Global Recovery which was released on the sidelines of the ongoing IMF/World Bank hybrid spring meetings in Washington DC, the global lender said Africa’s largest economy will rise by 3.4 per cent this year.

The IMF produces the outlook in April and October, with updates in January and July. Six months ago, it was expecting the easing of pandemic pressures to result in Nigeria’s 2022 economic growth reaching 2.7 per cent.

But the fund has reviewed upward the country’s 2023 growth prediction, from 2.7 per cent to 3.1 per cent.

The multilateral institution noted that the non-oil sector played a pivotal role in increasing Nigeria’s growth prospect, noting that globally, only 86 per cent of countries saw a downward revision of their growth projection.

It indicated that Nigeria was amongst 14 per cent of countries that had been estimated to record growth.

Other parts of the report noted, “The increase in oil prices has, however, lifted growth prospects for the region’s oil exporters, such as Nigeria. Overall, growth in sub-Saharan Africa is projected at 3.8 per cent in 2022.

“In sub-Saharan Africa, food prices are also the most important channel of transmission, although in slightly different ways. Wheat is a less important part of the diet, but food, in general, is a larger share of consumption.

“Higher food prices will hurt consumers’ purchasing power, particularly among low-income households and weigh on domestic demand. Social and political turmoil, most notably in West Africa, also weighs on the outlook.”

This will happen even as “Global economic prospects have worsened significantly,”

It warned that Russia’s invasion could lead to the fragmentation of the world economy into rival blocs.

As a result, the multilateral lender reduced its growth estimate for 2022 from 4.4 per cent to 3.6 per cent.

The IMF said a further two percentage points could be shaved off global growth next year in the event the war in Ukraine led to even higher energy prices, entrenched inflation and big losses on financial markets.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Exxon Mobil Extends OMLs 133, 138 Deals in Nigeria for 20 Years

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OML 46

By Adedapo Adesanya

US energy giant, Exxon Mobil Corporation, has renewed two deepwater leases in Nigeria for 20 years. The Oil Mining Leases (OMLs) were among the first permits granted under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) signed recently by President Muhammadu Buhari.

It also renewed production-sharing contracts (PSCs) with the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited, it said on its Twitter account.

“We are pleased to announce the renewals of our OMLs 133 (Erha) and 138 (Usan) deepwater leases for a further 20–year period. This includes extensions of Production Sharing Contracts with our partner NNPC Limited,” it announced in a recent post on Twitter.

The permits for Oil Mining Leases 133 and 138 were due to expire in 2026 and 2027 but were renewed early under sweeping legislation passed last year known as the Petroleum Industry Act.

The licenses contain deep-water fields from which the Nigerian government is eager to extract more oil and gas.

“These extensions enable us and our partners to unlock the potential value in these OMLs and to bring forward additional investment,” Exxon said.

Three other deep-water leases were renewed at the same ceremony in “a major step” toward boosting production, the NNPC said on its Twitter account. Output in Africa’s largest crude producer has been declining consistently over the past 18 months, with the government blaming rampant theft from the onshore pipelines that crisscross the Niger Delta.

Other companies with interests in the five extended licenses and production-sharing contracts include Chevron Corporation, Equinor ASA, Total Energies SE, Shell Plc, and Cnooc Ltd.

As the country faces challenges of declining oil production from mature fields, coupled with the reduced capital expenditure climate brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic, the PIA aims to enhance the sector’s attractiveness for foreign investment, ensuring a market-driven regulatory environment that will accelerate the country’s industry developments.

PIA comprises a complete overhaul of the administrative, regulatory and fiscal regime in Nigeria’s energy sector, restructuring key petroleum institutions in order to streamline processes and drive the country’s oil and gas industry expansion.

Notable regulatory reforms implemented through the PIA include the creation of a new upstream regulator which replaced the Department of Petroleum Resources; the creation of a new Nigerian midstream and downstream petroleum regulatory authority; and the replacement of the NNPC by the NNPC Limited which will operate on a commercial basis without government funding.

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Russia Scrambles for Higher Performance Marks in Africa

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Russia-Africa relations

By Kestér Kenn Klomegâh

Squeezed between Western and European sanctions due to its “special military operation” in Ukraine since late February and its dilapidating effects on Africa’s economy on one side and its decades-old desire to regain a part of the Soviet-era influence despite the weak economic presence and negative perceptions at the core among the public especially the youth and middle class, Russia is gearing up for the next traditional African leaders summit.

With preparations underway, Russia would have to begin preparing for and play different attractive rhythms at the second African leader’s summit in 2023 in St. Petersburg, Russia. Reports monitored by the author indicate that the modest economic gains are gradually eroding due to Covid-19 these past two years and the situation is turning complicated currently due to the Russia-Ukraine crisis.

The Russia-Ukraine crisis has had a strong immeasurable negative impact, generating social discontent across a large spectrum of the population in Africa. Therefore, African leaders would indiscriminately have to cooperate with any foreign investors willing to invest and support their development process. Across Africa, more than 282 million people are food insecure – and that number is rising, according to estimates by the World Bank.

Throughout Africa, the vulnerable groups of the population are displaying discontent and dissatisfaction due to unbearable rising prices for commodities and consumables. This latest food crisis, which did not originate in the continent, is reaching alarming dimensions, especially in Africa. In fact, African leaders are confronted with these hurdles and emerging challenges. They are feverishly looking for both short-term solutions to calm down existing tensions among the people, and also long-term strategies to push sustainable development and make pace for growth.

The United States perceives most of the challenges and opportunities with a difference in Africa. It is constantly investing and its private investors are active exploring the continent. The United States is well-connected with its public outreach diplomacy. American institutions and organizations are linking up with the youth, women and civil society.

After a peak in 2014, foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa from the United States dropped to $47.5 billion in 2020. During the pandemic, it provided more than 50 million doses to 43 African countries. It has further given more than $1.9 billion in Covid-related assistance, for urgent needs like emergency food and other humanitarian support.

President Joe Biden has launched the Emergency Plan for Adaptation and Resilience. The year, the Congress allocated $3 billion every year by 2024 to finance climate adaptation projects, the largest commitment ever made by the United States to reduce the impact of climate change on those most endangered by it.

Through the Power Africa programme, the U.S. has connected more than 25 million homes and businesses across the continent to electricity, 80 per cent of which is based on renewables. Development Finance Corporation supports renewable energy across Africa, including a solar project in Nigeria, and wind farms in Senegal and Kenya. Nigeria marked a new chapter with the signing of a $2.1 billion development assistance agreement that supports collaboration in the fundamentals: health, education, agriculture, and good governance.

And then four U.S. companies are collaborating with the Senegalese Government on infrastructure projects; that’s the Institut Pasteur de Dakar, which is working toward COVID vaccine production with American support and investment; and pushing innovation, technology and entrepreneurship with women and youth groups in Africa.  The popular partnership between the United States and Africa is YALI – the Young African Leaders Initiative.

The Prosper Africa initiative aims to increase two-way trade and investment. The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act – known as AGOA – provides duty-free access to American markets, and most African countries have taken full advantage of it. U.S. investors are seriously leveraging the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). Similarly, China, Japan and South Korea have started localizing the production of automobiles and tech gadgets.

Despite some criticism, international development institutions and organizations are ready and offering support. In addition, external countries are stepping up efforts in that direction. The World Bank stands ready. Its latest three-year, $93 billion global programme – about 2/3 of which will support Africa’s development agenda – is delivered through the International Development Association (IDA). The IDA is the world’s largest source of concessional funds, including grants for low-income countries, helping them seize opportunities to reduce poverty and stimulate inclusive growth.

This latest IDA replenishment will support Africa to increase even more in the years ahead. Africa has become the prime region benefiting from IDA resources – growing more than tenfold from its annual program of about $3 billion in 2000 to well over $30 billion currently. This support, plus our growing on-the-ground presence across Africa, is enabling to work hand-in-hand with governments, the private sector, and civil society to implement the continent’s ambitious development agenda.

While in Dakar, capital of Senegal, meeting more than a dozen Heads of State from across Africa, Axel van Trotsenburg, World Bank Vice President for Latin America and the Caribbean, said: “African leaders have, through the African Union process, articulated clear goals – from digitalization to electricity to education – and we are committed to helping Africa translate these ambitions into strong programmes that can, within a short period of time, improve people’s lives and transform the continent.”

Foreign countries including the United States, European Union, and Asian states such as China, and the Gulf and Arab states are, indeed, at the forefront in Africa. They offer all kinds of support for investments and credit lines for infrastructure projects and development programmes, while Russia seems ultra-hesitant to do. In March during the heat of the Russia-Ukraine crisis, the United States and European Union supported Africa through the African Development Bank (AfDB), when the bank sought funds of more than $50 billion for curated bankable projects in key priority sectors identified in the Africa Investment Forum’s 2020 Unified Response to Covid-19 initiative.

According to the China-Africa Economic and Trade Relationship Annual Report (2021), while Covid-19 has shaken the global economy, Chinese investment in Africa has been climbing. The report says China invested US$2.96 billion in Africa in 2020, up 9.5% from 2019.  The turnover of Chinese enterprises’ contracted projects in Africa amounted to $383.3 billion in 2020, which is a 16.7% drop from 2019.

In a media release, the U.S. Government’s lead development agency, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID), has renewed its partnership with many African countries. Quite recently, it offered to fund various projects, including investment in health and education, women and youth, and infrastructures in a number of African countries. For instance, in April this year, it gave assistance funding of $1.5 billion to promote a more peaceful, prosperous and healthy Mozambique.

The economic significance of the Eurasian Union for Africa’s development here need not be over-discussed. Members of the European Union such as Britain, France, Germany and The Netherlands are playing visible roles in Africa. The European Union, as a substantial economic power bloc, has long-term working relations with African Union.

With its new Global Gateway Strategy, the EU is demonstrating the readiness to support massive infrastructural investment in Africa.  It also seeks to unlock new business and investment opportunities, including in the areas of manufacturing and agro-processing as well as regional and continental value chain development. A document entitled “Toward a Comprehensive Strategy with Africa” sets forth the template of what the EU plans to do with Africa.

Valdis Dombrovskis, Executive Vice-President and Commissioner at the EU Secretariat pointed out that “In this new approach towards Africa, we can build a modern, sustainable and mutually rewarding partnership of equals. Of course, there will be challenges along the way but the EU stands ready to help. We want to share the lessons from our own process of economic integration, and with our new Global Gateway Strategy. We have demonstrated that we are ready to support massive infrastructural investment in Africa.”

That said, African leaders are exploring available possibilities and windows that have been opened after the last EU-Africa summit. The European Union has unveiled a €300 billion ($340 billion) alternative to China’s Belt and Road initiative – and investment programme the bloc claims will create links, no dependencies.

There is a great rivalry and keen competition among key global players now. And Africa is now seen from different perspectives, but more importantly, it has been described as the last investment frontier due to the current transformations taking place there. During the 35th Assembly of the Heads of State and Government of the AU in Addis Ababa in February, António Guterres argued that Africa was “a source of hope” for the world.

In November 2021, a report prepared by 25 Russian policy experts, titled ‘Situation Analytical Report’ explicitly noted that many external countries are using diplomacy in all ways to support their efforts in Africa. It criticized the inconsistency of Russia’s current policy towards Africa. The intensification of political contacts is only with a focus on making them demonstrative. Russia’s foreign policy strategy regarding Africa needs to spell out and incorporate the development needs of African countries.

While the number of high-level meetings has increased, the share of substantive issues on the agenda remains small. There are few definitive results from such high-level meetings. Many bilateral agreements largely remain not implemented, and many pledges are undelivered. It pointed to a lack of coordination among various state and para-state institutions working with Africa. According to the report, Russia has to intensify and redefine its parameters as it has now transcended to the fifth stage in its relationship with Africa.

That report was also critical of public speaking. The report lists insufficient and disorganized Russian-African lobbying, combined with the lack of “information hygiene” at all levels of public speaking among the main flaws of Russia’s current Africa policy. In several ways, ideas and intentions are often passed for results, and worse Russia’s possibilities are overestimated both publicly and in closed negotiations.

Several reports monitored by this author shows clearly that there has been little approach, in terms of government and institutional public relations, to Russia’s foreign policy in Africa. Understandably, after thirty years most of its institutions connecting Africa are still in transitional mode from the Soviet era. This author has written a lot about this, emphasizing the seriousness of using media networks – a calculated attempt to build an atmosphere of trust and confidence. Quite obviously, Russians have to devote a great deal of thought to creating a strategic communication group that could highlight its diverse performance and practical genuine interests in Africa.

Opening a new stage of relations becomes important, especially when analyzing the contradictions and confrontations posed by the Russia-Ukraine crisis and its multiple effects on future relations. Without doubts, African leaders complained bitterly that they have become direct victims of the Russia-Ukraine crisis. Overall Russia’s investment in economic sectors is still staggering there in the continent and comparatively, the fact still remains that the United States, the European Union and a number of Asian and the Gulf States are investing heavily in Africa.

Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Deputy Mikhail Bogdanov, most often show their crosshair of consistent criticism for Western and European dominance and investment in Africa. It lacks strategies for implementing those oftentimes forward-looking policies for Africa. The passion for repeating the same things in different ways in speeches. In a general sense, their repetitive theme of Soviet-era support for political liberation and now efforts to help Africa fight neocolonialism are highly appreciated but Russia has to, in practical terms, show its latest policy achievements in various sectors for the past two decades.

On another side note, Russia most probably needs to design the template of its communication strategy ahead of the 2023 summit, which has to largely win the hearts of African leaders to the emerging New World Order. As already promised, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, Sergey Lavrov, indicated in a mid-June message that “in these difficult and crucial times the strategic partnership with Africa has become a priority of Russia’s foreign policy. The signed agreements and the results will be consolidated at the forthcoming second Russia-Africa summit.”

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Economy

Second CMC Meeting of SEC in 2022 Holds Thursday

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Non-Interest Issuance cmc meeting

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The second Capital Market Committee (CMC) meeting of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in 2022 will take place on Thursday, August 18.

According to a circular issued by the apex regulatory agency in the Nigerian capital market, the CMC meeting will hold virtually through Zoom with key stakeholders in the capital market.

The next day, there would be the usual interface with members of the media on the outcome of the CMC meeting.

The CMC was primarily established to serve as a medium for the exchange of ideas among market stakeholders as well as an avenue for providing feedback to the SEC on how to continuously address challenges, improve market operations and enhance the regulatory framework.

It is an industry-wide committee comprising members of the SEC, representatives of capital market operators and trade groups and other stakeholders.

“Attendance to both events is strictly by invitation. Invited participants will be sent unique links with which to join the meeting,” a part of the notice said.

During the meeting, issues bordering on implementation of the 10-year Capital Market Master Plan, implementation of the fintech roadmap, the commodities trading ecosystem roadmap, as well as other salient matters relating to the capital market and the economy, would be discussed.

The commission had unveiled the ten-year Capital Market Master Plan (CMMP) in November 2014 and has continued to implement the initiatives, which are designed to reposition the Nigerian capital market as an attractive investment destination and a critical facilitator of capital formation for accelerated growth and development of the Nigerian economy.

Some of the CMMP initiatives that have been implemented include; Direct Cash Settlement, regularisation of multiple subscriptions, dematerialization of share certificates, and the introduction of the e-Dividend Management System. The CMMP initiatives have helped in promoting transparency, protecting investors and enhancing market confidence. The objectives of the CMMP are also in consonance with the Federal Government’s economic strategy, which focused on encouraging a private sector-led economy to drive inclusive growth.

Only recently, the market embarked on a revision of the master plan to conform to net day realities. The revised Master Plan has since been presented to the Minister of Finance Budget and National Planning in Abuja.

Expected participants at the CMC meeting include Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) of all registered capital market firms (i.e. Broker/Dealers, Investment Advisers, Custodians, Fund/Portfolio Managers, Receiving Banks, Issuing Houses, Rating Agencies, Registrars, Reporting Accountants, Trustees, and Capital Market Consultants, etc.); Chief Executive Officers of Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), National Association of Securities Dealers (NASD); FMDQ Group Plc; Africa Exchange Holdings (AFEX); Nigeria Commodity Exchange (NCX); Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS); as well as representatives of relevant financial sector regulatory agencies, among others.

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