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Economy

Again, Nigeria’s Manufacturing PMI Drops in February

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Data released by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) on Wednesday, March 1, 2017, has revealed that the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) declined to 44.6 index points in February 2017 from 48.2 points it was in January 2017.

The apex bank, in its latest report, which was obtained by Business Post, noted that this indicates declines in the manufacturing sector for two consecutive months after an incidence of expansion in December 2016.

It stated further that 14 of 16 sub-sectors reported declines in the review month in the following order: transportation equipment; paper products; electrical equipment; printing & related support activities; fabricated metal products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; furniture & related products; cement; plastics & rubber products; petroleum & coal products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; computer & electronic products; nonmetallic mineral products and primary metal.

However, the appliances & components and food, beverage & tobacco products subsectors reported expansion in the review period.

According to the CBN, in the period under review, the production level index for manufacturing sector contracted, staying at 45.2 points, indicating a decline in production level when compared to the 51.3 points in the previous month.

The report said 12 manufacturing sub-sectors recorded declines in production level during the review month in the following order: electrical equipment; paper products; transportation equipment; chemical & pharmaceutical products; plastics & rubber products; furniture & related products; fabricated metal products; printing & related support activities; computer & electronic products; primary metal; textile, apparel, leather & footwear and cement. The petroleum & coal products sub-sector remained unchanged, while the appliances & components; food, beverage & tobacco products and non-metallic mineral products recorded growth in production.

Also, the CBN disclosed that employment level index in the month of February 2017 stood at 41.7 points, indicating declines in employment level for the 24th consecutive month.

However, the index declined at a faster rate when compared with the level in the preceding month. Of the sixteen sub-sectors, 14 recorded declines in the following order: transportation equipment; electrical equipment; printing & related support activities; computer & electronic products; chemical & pharmaceutical products; fabricated metal products; petroleum & coal products; appliances & components; furniture & related products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; nonmetallic mineral products; plastics & rubber products; paper products and cement. The primary metal sub-sectors remained unchanged, while only the food, beverage & tobacco products sub-sector recorded growth during the review period.

Similarly, the composite PMI for the non-manufacturing sector declined for the 14th consecutive month.

The index stood at 44.5 points, indicating a faster decline when compared to the 49.4 points in January 2017.

Of the 18 non-manufacturing sub-sectors, 15 recorded declines in the following order: construction; professional, scientific, & technical services; water supply, sewage & waste management; accommodation & food services; public administration; arts, entertainment & recreation; real estate, rental & leasing; utilities; wholesale trade; information & communication; finance & insurance; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles…; health care & social assistance; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply and transportation & warehousing.

The management of companies remained the same, while the educational services and agriculture reported increase in the review month.

Every month, the CBN conducts a survey of purchasing and supply executives of manufacturing and non-manufacturing organizations in 13 locations in Nigeria: two states in each of the six geo-political zones, and the FCT.

Results of the survey are used to compute the monthly Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and that of this month was conducted from February 13 to 21, 2017 with a total of 1,755 responses received from a sample of 1,950 respondents, representing a response rate of 90.0 percent.

The apex bank makes no representation regarding the individual companies, other than that stated by the respondents and data contained further provides input for policy decisions.

The Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI Report on businesses is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives. Survey responses indicate whether there is change or no change in the level of business activities in the current month compared with the previous month.

For each of the indicators measured, this report shows the diffusion index of the responses. The diffusion index is computed as the percent of positive responses plus one-half of the percent of those reporting no change. The composite PMI is then computed as the weighted average of five diffusion indices for manufacturing sector: production level, new orders, supplier delivery time, employment level and raw materials inventory, with assigned weights of 25%, 30%, 15%, 10% and 20%, respectively.

The composite PMI for non-manufacturing sector is computed from four diffusion indices: business activity, new orders, employment level and raw materials inventory, with equal weights of 25% each.

A composite PMI above 50 points indicates that the manufacturing/non-manufacturing economy is generally expanding, 50 points indicates no change and below 50 points indicates that it is generally declining.

The sub-sectors reporting growth are listed in the order of highest to lowest growth. For the sub-sectors reporting contraction/decline, they are listed in the order of the highest to the lowest decline.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Wale Edun Rules Out IMF Loan for Nigeria

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Wale Edun Monetary Policies

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, has said Nigeria may not run to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for any loan.

He disclosed this in a chat with Arise Television on the sidelines of the ongoing World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, Switzerland.

The Minister affirmed that Nigeria has no reason to approach the global lender, adding that the nation is currently relying on relatively cheaper borrowing sources from the World Bank and the African Development Bank (AfDB).

He also argued that Nigeria does not have a balance of payments problem and therefore will not need the short-term financing intervention by the Bretton Wood institution.

“I can imagine the headlines if you saw a situation whereby you were saying Nigeria approaches the IMF for funding. But the reality is that, of course, as a developing country, requiring investment, funds for the government, and investment in key infrastructure to improve the enabling environment for business, we do need funds, and we have the need to borrow.

“We have relied on relatively cheap funding from the multilateral, from the World Bank, from AFDB, and the whole spectrum of funding has been used.”

He also said that the country will tap a range of instruments to help finance this year’s budget deficit and improve the economy.

“We have relied on Nigerian savings by convincing them of the macroeconomic plan of the president, and what it holds in terms of the prospects for growth of the economy and business, and improvement of the business environment.

“Of course, we have approached the Euro bond market, which is, of course, the commercial end of financing. So we’ve done that whole spectrum. When it comes to IMF financing, typically financing from the IMF is to help with short-term balance of payments issues and crises.

“In the case of Nigeria, we have a positive trade balance. We have a positive current account balance. Our reserves are growing. The Governor of the Central Bank recently announced that we had achieved upwards of $10 billion improvement and increase in the reserves.

“We need to use equity. We need to rely on crowding in the savings, particularly of the private sector in Nigeria and the private sector around the world in the form of foreign direct investment. We have to remember that at this time, we have had significant gains in terms of improving the economic environment,” Mr Edun stated.

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Economy

NASD OTC Exchange Rises 0.33%

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NASD OTC securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rose further by 0.33 per cent on Thursday, January 23, as appetite for unlisted stocks continued to grow.

During the trading session, the value of the bourse went up by N7.6 billion to N1.767 trillion from the N1.76 trillion it closed in the preceding session, as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) made an additional 10.33 points to wrap the trading day at 3,120.3 points compared with the 3,09.80 points recorded at the midweek session.

Business Post reports that the share price of Okitipupa Plc increased on Thursday by N4.35 to end the day at N47.90 per unit compared with the previous day’s N43.55 per unit, and Food Concepts Plc gained 14 Kobo to settle at N1.74 per share, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1.60 per share.

On the flip side, Impresit Bakolori Plc suffered a decline of 10 Kobo yesterday to trade at 95 Kobo per unit versus Wednesday’s closing price of N1.05 per unit.

When the exchange closed for the session, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors went up by 70,008 per cent to 407.4 million units from the 581,160 units transacted a day earlier.

Equally, the value of shares traded during the session jumped by 16,665.9 per cent to N391.2 million from the N2.3 million recorded at midweek, and the number of deals increased by 65 per cent to 30 deals from the 20 deals posted on Wednesday.

Impresit Bakolori Plc topped the activity chart as the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 406.5 million units worth N386.1 million, followed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 4.3 million units valued at N170.4 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 9.1 million units sold for N44.3 million.

However, Impresit Bakolori Plc snatched the top spot as most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 406.5 million units worth N386.1 million, as Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc dropped to second position for selling 26.3 million units sold for N6.3 million, and Geo-Fluids Plc occupied third with 9.2 million units valued at N44.3 million.

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Economy

Naira Firms to N1,548/$1 at Official Market, Tumbles at Black Market

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Black Market

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira recovered about 0.26 per cent or N3.99 against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Thursday, January 23 after coming under pressure in recent times.

During the session, the exchange rate of the local currency to its American counterpart closed at N1,548.59/$1 in the official market compared with the previous day’s N1,552.58/$1.

Also, against the Pound Sterling, the domestic currency gained N3.32 yesterday to trade at N1,912.21/£1 compared with Wednesday’s value of N1,915.53/£1 and on the Euro, it improved by N3.82 to sell for N1,617.72/€1 versus N1,613.89/€1.

The forex market may be reacting positively to news that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) would launch a FX Code, which will serve as a guideline to the banking industry to promote ethical conduct of Authorised Dealers in the Nigerian FX market, next week.

The code will further reduce speculative activities, eliminate market distortions, and give the CBN improved oversight capabilities to effectively regulate the market.

The bank noted that authorised dealers would subsequently conduct all FX transactions in the interbank FX market on the EFEMS approved by the apex bank where transactions will be reflected immediately.

However, in the black market segment, the Nigerian Naira lost N5 against the greenback during the session to quote at N1,665/$1, in contrast to midweek’s rate of N1,660/$1.

As for the cryptocurrency market, it was lively yesterday as attention is increasingly centered on potential policy developments under the government of President Donald Trump of the US.

On Thursday, President Trump signed an executive order to ban the digital dollar and promote crypto and AI innovation in the country.

Meanwhile, the US data released recently showed the “all tenant rent” index, which leads the shelter inflation in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose at a slower pace last quarter. That has raised hopes that the US Federal Reserve will walk back on its hawkish December rate forecasts.

These helped Ethereum (ETH) gain 5.4 per cent on Thursday to sell at $3,394.79, Solana (SOL) appreciated by 4.4 per cent to $260.86, Cardano (ADA) jumped by 2.9 per cent to $1.00, and Litecoin (LTC) expanded by 2.6 per cent to $116.78.

Further, Bitcoin (BTC) rose by 2.1 per cent to $1o4,978.31, Ripple (XRP) leapt by 0.7 per cent to $3.16, Dogecoin (DOGE) increased by 0.6 per cent to $0.3572, and Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 1.6 per cent to $710.31, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.

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