Economy
Niger’s Overall Macroeconomic Performance Okay In 2016—IMF
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A recently released report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said Niger’s overall macroeconomic performance has remained satisfactory in 2016 despite the security and humanitarian shocks, the unfavourable commodity prices, and the reduction of trade flows to neighbouring countries.
An IMF team to Niger led by Mr Anta Gueye visited Niamey from October 24 to November 7, 2016 to conduct the 2017 Article IV consultation and discuss a successor Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement that could support Niger’s medium-term economic and financial program.
At the end of the mission, Mr Gueye said the Nigerien authorities and the IMF team reached a staff-level agreement on a medium-term program (2017-2020) that could be supported by a successor ECF.
According him, the new program builds on lessons of the current ECF arrangement.
He said in the report that while the 2012-2016 ECF-supported program helped maintain macroeconomic stability despite a series of substantial adverse exogenous shocks and implementation slippages, allocations for health and education were crowded out by priority security expenses, which constrained the achievement of broader development objectives.
“The new program aims at preserving macroeconomic stability and at achieving the development objectives of the Economic Development Document,” he explained in the report obtained by Business Post.
He added that in view of the elevated security spending needs and the persisting shocks to government revenue, policies under the new program focus on domestic revenue mobilization, by broadening the tax base, and on strengthened budget management, to provide the needed fiscal space and ensure debt sustainability.
The program, Mr Gueye explained, also includes a strong agenda for structural reforms to strengthen public financial management, support the diversification of the economy and enhance resilience, while reflecting limited capacity.
He said the country’s growth is projected to increase to 4.5 percent in 2016 from 3.5 percent in 2015, helped by a strong 2016/17 crop year and despite continued weakness in the oil and mining sectors. Inflation would be contained at 1.6 percent in 2016.
“Budget execution has been impacted by lower-than-targeted revenue collection partly due to unfavourable developments in commodity sectors and continued economic problems in neighbouring countries.
“At end-June 2016, most fiscal targets other than for government revenue were however met. Progress was made in implementing structural reforms, albeit with delays.
“In response to a larger shortfall of revenue collection in the second half of 2016, the authorities curtailed commitments on non-priority expenditures for the last quarter of 2016. This measure enacted by the inter-ministerial budget regulation committee will help avoid the accumulation of payments arrears and the resort to domestic financing,” the report said.
“The economic outlook for the medium-term is favourable, but remains subject to substantial external and domestic risks. Real GDP growth is projected to increase to 5.2 percent in 2017, driven by agriculture and an expected pick-up in oil production. Inflation is expected to remain contained below 2 percent.
“Real GDP growth is expected to average 6.0 percent during 2018- 2021, mainly as a result of the expansion of the extractive industries sector and an increase in public and private investments. Inflation is expected to remain below the 3 percent WAEMU convergence criterion.
“Key risks include negative externalities of regional conflicts, vulnerability to natural disasters, and the economic turmoil in the sub-region.
“The Article IV discussions focused on preventing and managing natural disasters, harnessing the demographic dividend, and dealing with the gender issue in Niger.
“The mission met with President Issoufou Mahamadou and Prime Minister Brigi Rafini. The mission held also working sessions with the Minister of Finance, Mr, Massoudou Hassoumi, other Ministers in charge of Planning, Petroleum, Mines, the Minister Delegate for Budget, the National Director of the BCEAO, as well as other senior government officials. The staff also met with representatives of civil society, the private sector, and the donor community,” the report said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Four securities weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 1.95 per cent on Friday, erasing N41.17 billion from the bourse, which had its market capitalisation at N2.567 trillion compared with the previous session’s N2.618 trillion.
In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) decreased at the close of business by 85.28 points to 4,277.07 points from 4,362.32 points.
The price decliners were led by 11 Plc, which gave up N20.50 to sell at N200.50 per share compared with the preceding day’s N221.00 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc dropped N16.94 to close at N155.20 per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of N172.14 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went down by N2.11 to N84.68 per share from N86.79 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc lost 11 Kobo to end at N16.74 per unit, in contrast to the N16.85 per unit it closed a day earlier.
During the trading day, the value of transactions jumped by 172.1 per cent to N29.9 million from the preceding session’s N10.9 million, and the volume of trades soared by 136.5 per cent to 955,096 units from the previous 403,901 units, while the number of deals went down by 11.4 per cent to 31 deals from 35 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units worth N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.6 million units sold for N4.7 billion.
GNI Plc also ended the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units exchanged for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The last trading session of this week on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended on a negative note, with a 0.66 per cent loss on Friday.
This was influenced by sustained selling pressure and cautious trading, which forced investors into profit-taking.
Data obtained by Business Post showed that the energy sector fell by 4.66 per cent, the insurance counter dipped by 2.23 per cent, the consumer goods index depreciated by 0.96 per cent, and the banking segment shed 0.28 per cent, while the industrial goods space remained unchanged.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) of Nigeria’s stock exchange went down by 1,531.81 points to 232,049.02 points from 233,580.83 points, and the market capitalisation dropped N983 billion to settle at N148.905 trillion compared with Thursday’s N149.888 trillion.
Aradel was the worst-performing equity after it lost 10.00 per cent to close at N1,417.50. International Energy Insurance slipped by 9.95 per cent to N5.79, Trans-Nationwide Express depreciated by 9.89 per cent to N3.28, eTranzact crashed by 9.79 per cent to N14.75, and UPDC slumped by 9.72 per cent to N28.12.
The best-performing equity for the day was Universal Insurance, which gained 6.32 per cent to close at N1.01, McNichols grew by 5.52 per cent to N8.60, Linkage Assurance expanded by 4.67 per cent to N1.57, NGX Group appreciated by 4.35 per cent to N120.00, and Transcorp increased by 3.62 per cent to N41.50.
As look at the activity level indicated that investors traded 388.7 million stocks worth N18.4 billion in 44,631 deals compared with the 393.7 million stocks valued at N19.2 billion executed in 45,813 deals a day earlier, representing a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 1.27 per cent, 4.17 per cent, and 2.58 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira recorded a loss of 82 Kobo or 0.06 per cent against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, June 26, exchanging at N1,380.93/$1, in contrast to the previous day’s rate of N1,380.11/$1.
Equally, the domestic currency further weakened against the Pound Sterling in the official FX market yesterday by N6.06 to settle at N1,824.90/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,818.84/£1, and lost N10.74 on the Euro to sell at N1,577 .58/€1 versus N1,566.84/€1.
At the GTBank forex counter, the Naira depreciated against the greenback during the session by N4 to close at N1,387/$1, in contrast to Thursday’s value of N1,383/$1, and at the parallel market, it was unchanged at N1,395/$1.
Interbank FX activity among financial institutions has fluctuated amid a sharp slowdown in forex market interventions by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), as it allows demand and supply to move the market.
Also, a stronger greenback has generally put significant pressure on emerging-market currencies.
Nigeria has accessed the first tranche of a proposed $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with First Abu Dhabi Bank PJSC, the largest lender in the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The $5 billion facility, approved by the National Assembly earlier this year, is part of the federal government’s plan to diversify external financing sources and reduce borrowing costs. Structured as a Total Return Swap with First Abu Dhabi Bank, proceeds are earmarked for refinancing debt and supporting infrastructure financing.
If the proceeds are brought into the country through the official FX market, the transaction will increase the currency reserves or Dollar liquidity.
At the cryptocurrency market, Solana (SOL) grew by 2.2 per cent to $71.92, Cardano (ADA) gained 1.1 per cent to trade at $0.1474, Ripple (XRP) also appreciated by 1.1 per cent to $1.05, Dogecoin (DOGE) expanded by 0.9 per cent to $0.0755, and Ethereum (ETH) improved by 0.4 per cent to $1,578.84.
On the flip side, TRON (TRX) slid 0.6 per cent to $0.3203, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 0.3 per cent to $564.33, and Bitcoin fell by 0.2 per cent to $60,219.37, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
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