Economy
Niger’s Overall Macroeconomic Performance Okay In 2016—IMF
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A recently released report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said Niger’s overall macroeconomic performance has remained satisfactory in 2016 despite the security and humanitarian shocks, the unfavourable commodity prices, and the reduction of trade flows to neighbouring countries.
An IMF team to Niger led by Mr Anta Gueye visited Niamey from October 24 to November 7, 2016 to conduct the 2017 Article IV consultation and discuss a successor Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement that could support Niger’s medium-term economic and financial program.
At the end of the mission, Mr Gueye said the Nigerien authorities and the IMF team reached a staff-level agreement on a medium-term program (2017-2020) that could be supported by a successor ECF.
According him, the new program builds on lessons of the current ECF arrangement.
He said in the report that while the 2012-2016 ECF-supported program helped maintain macroeconomic stability despite a series of substantial adverse exogenous shocks and implementation slippages, allocations for health and education were crowded out by priority security expenses, which constrained the achievement of broader development objectives.
“The new program aims at preserving macroeconomic stability and at achieving the development objectives of the Economic Development Document,” he explained in the report obtained by Business Post.
He added that in view of the elevated security spending needs and the persisting shocks to government revenue, policies under the new program focus on domestic revenue mobilization, by broadening the tax base, and on strengthened budget management, to provide the needed fiscal space and ensure debt sustainability.
The program, Mr Gueye explained, also includes a strong agenda for structural reforms to strengthen public financial management, support the diversification of the economy and enhance resilience, while reflecting limited capacity.
He said the country’s growth is projected to increase to 4.5 percent in 2016 from 3.5 percent in 2015, helped by a strong 2016/17 crop year and despite continued weakness in the oil and mining sectors. Inflation would be contained at 1.6 percent in 2016.
“Budget execution has been impacted by lower-than-targeted revenue collection partly due to unfavourable developments in commodity sectors and continued economic problems in neighbouring countries.
“At end-June 2016, most fiscal targets other than for government revenue were however met. Progress was made in implementing structural reforms, albeit with delays.
“In response to a larger shortfall of revenue collection in the second half of 2016, the authorities curtailed commitments on non-priority expenditures for the last quarter of 2016. This measure enacted by the inter-ministerial budget regulation committee will help avoid the accumulation of payments arrears and the resort to domestic financing,” the report said.
“The economic outlook for the medium-term is favourable, but remains subject to substantial external and domestic risks. Real GDP growth is projected to increase to 5.2 percent in 2017, driven by agriculture and an expected pick-up in oil production. Inflation is expected to remain contained below 2 percent.
“Real GDP growth is expected to average 6.0 percent during 2018- 2021, mainly as a result of the expansion of the extractive industries sector and an increase in public and private investments. Inflation is expected to remain below the 3 percent WAEMU convergence criterion.
“Key risks include negative externalities of regional conflicts, vulnerability to natural disasters, and the economic turmoil in the sub-region.
“The Article IV discussions focused on preventing and managing natural disasters, harnessing the demographic dividend, and dealing with the gender issue in Niger.
“The mission met with President Issoufou Mahamadou and Prime Minister Brigi Rafini. The mission held also working sessions with the Minister of Finance, Mr, Massoudou Hassoumi, other Ministers in charge of Planning, Petroleum, Mines, the Minister Delegate for Budget, the National Director of the BCEAO, as well as other senior government officials. The staff also met with representatives of civil society, the private sector, and the donor community,” the report said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc pulled down the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.89 per cent on Monday, August 17.
The price of FrieslandCampina went down by N9.85 to N160.00 per unit from N169.85 per unit, and CSCS Plc depreciated by 96 Kobo to N98.50 per share versus N99.46 per share.
As a result, the market capitalisation further lost N23.90 billion to end at N2.656 trillion, in contrast to the preceding session’s N2.68 trillion, and the NASD Security Index (NSI) dropped 39.81 points to close at 4,426.02 points from 4,465.83 points.
During the trading session, the share price of Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc was up by 1 Kobo to 55 Kobo per unit from 54 Kobo per unit.
Yesterday, the volume of securities transacted by market participants decreased by 79.3 per cent to 652,081 units from 3.2 million units, the value of securities slid by 78.2 per cent to N10.7 million from N375.7 million, and the number of deals went south by 54.4 per cent to 21 deals from 46 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 79.6 million units transacted for N5.8 billion.
GNI Plc also ended the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units exchanged for N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units sold for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bears have refused to vacate the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, further inflicting a 0.07 per cent loss on the bourse on Monday due to sustained profit-taking.
Data from Customs Street indicated that sell-offs were more pronounced in the financial services sector during the session, with the insurance index down by 1.48 per cent, and the banking counter shedding 0.46 per cent.
They rubbed out the gains recorded by the other sectors, as the consumer goods segment rose by 0.43 per cent and the energy index gained 0.01 per cent, while the industrial goods space closed flat.
When the closing gong was struck to signify the close of transactions, the All-Share Index (ASI) shrank by 164.55 points to 242,454.65 points from 242,619.20 points, and the market capitalisation decreased by N106 billion to N156.518 trillion from the preceding session’s N156.624 trillion.
Investor sentiment remained bearish yesterday, as the stock market ended with 19 price gainers and 36 price losers, implying a negative market breadth index.
RT Briscoe lost 9.91 per cent to finish at N10.45, Fortis Global Insurance slumped by 9.89 per cent to N2.37, McNichols depreciated by 9.62 per cent to N4.70, University Press dropped 9.35 per cent to close at N4.85, and NEM Insurance dipped by 8.83 per cent to N30.45.
Conversely, Trans-Nationwide Express gained 9.86 per cent to trade at N3.12, AVA Capital expanded by 9.72 per cent to N7.90, Thomas Wyatt went up by 9.09 per cent to N3.00, Legend Internet improved by 8.75 per cent to N4.35, and Dangote Sugar soared by 8.60 per cent to N70.10.
On the activity chart, the trading volume retreated by 7.14 per cent to 1.3 billion units from 1.4 billion units last Friday. The trading value went down by 49.45 per cent to N22.9 billion from N45.3 billion, while the number of deals surged by 16.25 per cent to 45,494 deals from 39,134 deals.
At the close of trades, Lasaco Assurance transacted 730.7 million shares worth N1.3 billion, Consolidated Hallmark traded 154.3 million equities for N1.1 billion, Cornerstone Insurance exchanged 106.1 million stocks valued at N535.4 million, Chams sold 25.3 million shares worth N108.4 million, and First Holdco transacted 25.0 million equities for N3.4 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated against the United States Dollar by N8.07 or 0.59 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Monday, August 17, to N1,349.54/$1 from last Friday’s N1,357.61/$1.
Similarly, the Nigerian Naira gained N9.99 against the Pound Sterling in the official FX market during the session to settle at N1,830.11/£1 versus the previous day’s N1,840.10/£1, and improved its value against the Euro by N6.91 to close at N1,564.79/€1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,571.70/€1.
However, the Nigerian currency traded flat against the US Dollar yesterday at the parallel market at N1,395/$1, and at the GTBank forex counter, it remained unchanged at N1,364/$1.
Interbank FX turnover, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), accelerated by 265 per cent to $437.529 million from last Friday’s $119.594 million, with the number of deals rising to 178 from 137.
Total FX inflows into the NAFEM window increased significantly to $1.77 billion from $0.83 billion in the previous week, according to the research subsidiary of Coronation Group.
Domestic sources accounted for 63.44 per cent of total inflows, driven primarily by Exporters (31.2 per cent) and Non-Bank Corporates (17.7 per cent), underscoring the growing contribution of autonomous market participants to FX supply.
Notably, the central bank injected $252.1 million, representing 14.3 per cent of total inflows, to enhance market liquidity. On the external side, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) remained the largest single source of FX, contributing 33.71 per cent of aggregate inflows.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was mixed on Monday, with Bitcoin (BTC) up by 0.9 per cent to $64,153.93, and Solana (SOL) gaining 0.3 per cent to sell at $75.602.
This occurred amid broader markets continuing their climb following President Donald Trump saying he was not interested in extending the expiring agreement with Iran, and as fighting flared again in Lebanon.
But Cardano (ADA) lost 2.2 per cent to finish at $0.1729, Ripple (XRP) declined by 0.8 per cent to $0.9939, Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped by 0.7 per cent to $0.0698, Binance Coin (BNB) crumbled by 0.4 per cent to $602.80, Ethereum (ETH) slid by 0.3 per cent to $1,892.96, and TRON (TRX) also depreciated by 0.3 per cent to $0.3314, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00, respectively.
