Economy
Restart of Libyan Crude Production Weighs Down Prices by 3%
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices slid more than 3 per cent on Monday over fears of increased global supply following news that Libya will resume oil production since January after oil export terminals and oilfields were blocked due to conflict.
Brent crude fell $1.36 or 3.15 per cent to $41.79 per barrel while the United States West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude shed 3.48 per cent or $1.43 to close at $39.68 barrel.
Libya’s National Oil Corporation will restart production from certain fields and some exports of crude oil, the company said, adding that it will only restart production at safe fields and exports from safe ports.
The resumption of Libyan oil flowing to the global market at a time of weak demand recovery and weak oil prices was not a piece of news welcomed by market participants with open arms.
It has the possibility to bring back 1.2 million barrels per day to the market from just about 100,000 barrels it is currently. The scale-down happened in January when General Khalifa Haftar’s Libyan National Army (LNA) occupied the African producer’s oilfields, effectively blocking the North African country’s black gold.
But now that Libya will start bringing production back on, things may well change as the agreement by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) relied on the country’s involuntary contribution to the overall supply curbs.
Analysts noted that there will be a gradual ramp-up of Libyan supply starting from the end of the month to 650,000 barrels a day in early 2021, a level below pre-crisis levels of 1.2 million barrels a day, based on earlier reports of damaged infrastructure.
This means Libya is set to add 230,000 barrels a day on average over the fourth quarter of 2020, with the possibility of ramping up production above this as they will be spared from the OPEC+ cuts.
Also, depressing prices on Monday were reports of rising coronavirus cases in Europe, which means already affected demand will be further impacted by the possible renewal of restrictions on activities on the continent.
Also, in the United States, Tropical Storm Beta is forecast to move toward the central coast of an oil state, Texas. Natural disasters normally prop up prices but the Gulf of Mexico region is still recovering from back-to-back hurricanes, following Hurricane Laura in late August and Hurricane Sally last week. As of Monday, more than 10 per cent of the region’s oil production remained shut-in.
Economy
OPEC+ Retains Nigeria’s Output Benchmark at 1.5mbpd
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s daily oil production quota will remain unchanged at 1.5 million barrels per day after the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Thursday deferred the commencement of its proposed oil production cuts by a year, until the end of 2026.
The move was necessitated by weak demand and rising output by non-members of the international oil cartel.
OPEC sets a production target for its members as a way of curbing oversupply and ensuring price stability.
The alliance agreed to extend the 2 million barrels per day and the 1.65 million barrels per day of cuts until the end of 2026 from the end of 2025 respectively, according to statements issued by the group on Thursday.
However, Nigeria which has been a laggard struggled for years to meet its monthly allocation of 1.78 million barrels per day minus condensates as prescribed by the group.
The country quota was revised then downwards to 1.5 million barrels per day in 2022.
Under its formal output strategy, the broader OPEC+ coalition is now restricting its combined production to 39.725 million barrels per day until December 31, 2026, after previously only applying this quota throughout 2025.
However, eight OPEC+ members — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman — will now extend their 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production decline into the first quarter, and will begin hiking production incrementally between April and September 2026.
Nigeria, unable to meet its 1.5 million barrels per day, does not belong to this exclusive group. OPEC data puts Africa’s largest oil producer numbers at 1.3 million barrels on average.
Saudi Arabia’s quota will stand at 10.47 million barrels per day; Russia’s at 9.94 million barrels per day; Iraq’s at 4.43 million barrels per day production and Algeria’s at 1 million barrels per day output.
Despite these sets of production trims and ongoing conflict threatening the hydrocarbon-rich Middle Eastern region, global oil prices have remained subdued for the better part of this year, under pressure from a tepid demand outlook.
Brent crude, which Nigeria leverages its headline crude against, is currently trading at $72 per barrel.
Meanwhile, Nigeria has set an ambitious 2025 production target of 2.06 million barrels per day, inclusive of condensates, as outlined in the draft 2025 appropriation bill of N48.7 trillion. The bill also sets a $77 per barrel benchmark to fund the budget.
Economy
LCCI Predicts 4% GDP Growth For 2024 Amid Economic Challenges
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) foresees Nigeria’s economy closing the current year in positive growth up to 4 per cent.
This was disclosed by the president of the chamber, Mr Gabriel Idahosa, at the organisation’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) on Thursday in Lagos.
The LCCI forecast builds up on recent gross domestic product (GDP) released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) which points out that Nigeria’s economy grew 3.46 per cent in the third quarter of 2024.
The body said achieving faster recovery requires the fiscal and monetary sides of the economy to promote policies that would encourage private capital flows to the economy.
According to him, fiscal and monetary authorities need to develop a medium-term growth plan anchored on boosting local production, supporting ease of doing business and attracting private investment.
Mr Idahosa said the plan should also focus on developing infrastructure, business-friendly regulatory policies, economic diversification, and employment generation.
“Nigeria is presently confronted with a myriad of challenges including sustained double-digit inflation, a steadily rising debt profile, revenue mobilisation challenges and others.
“We have advocated for a well-coordinated synergy between the fiscal and monetary authorities in engagement with the private sector to navigate the uncertain economic terrain.
“We will continue to engage with government in creating an enabling business environment where the private sector is empowered to grow, create jobs and generate revenue for the government,” he said.
Addressing some economic indices, the LCCI president noted that the private sector was currently plagued with increased borrowing costs and a pressured foreign exchange market.
He said recent hikes in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) had directly translated to higher interest rates, making it more expensive for businesses to access credit for working capital, expansion, and sustainability.
He said that rate hikes alone would not curb inflation without resolving the challenges of the real sector of the economy.
Mr Idahosa added that the country needed to diversify its exports by boosting local crude refining capacity production of petrochemical products and accelerating reforms in the and gas sector.
“The chamber looks forward to the sustained implementation of naira payments for crude oil sales to the Dangote refinery and other local refineries, which started on October 1, 2024.
“We urge the government to summon the courage to be consistent with the oil and gas sector reforms and implement the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) fully.
“We see the long-term gains of these reforms if they are implemented under a conducive regulatory environment,” he said.
Speaking on the projected N47.9 trillion 2025 budget presented recently by President Bola Tinubu, Mr Idahosa said the key parameters and assumptions on which the budget was proposed were too optimistic in the face of some economic and social indicators.
On her part, Mrs Chinyere Almona, Director General, LCCI, urged government to create an enabling environment for businesses to thrive to enhance their productivity and contribute more meaningfully to the economy.
She noted that while the year was filled with very difficult reforms, businesses should stay the course on these reforms and things would improve.
Mrs Almona urged businesses to think of alternatives to improve efficiency, attract finance and be more productive, while hoping for the next year to be better.
She also called on authorities to focus on non-oil exports to attract more foreign exchange.
“When we talk of exports, we are not just talking of exporting raw materials but processing materials to command top dollar in the export market.
“At the chamber, we are looking for ways to improve our export and small and medium enterprises (SMEs) groups to improve their capacity and productivity to export more, ” she said.
Economy
FrieslandCampina Sinks Unlisted Securities Exchange by 0.20%
By Adedapo Adesanya
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc pulled down the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.20 per cent fall on Thursday, December 5.
The bourse, as a result, lost N2.14 billion as the market capitalisation wrapped the session at N1.056 trillion compared with the N1.058 trillion it closed in the preceding session.
Equally, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) dropped 6.13 points to settle for the session at 3,013.41 points compared with 3,019.54 points recorded on Wednesday.
During the trading day, the price of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc went down by N1.10 to trade at N40.36 per share versus the N41.46 per share it ended at midweek.
Yesterday, the volume of shares bought and sold by the market participants significantly decreased by 99.9 per cent to 74,381 units from the 127.5 million units traded in the preceding session.
In the same vein, the value of securities transacted by investors on Thursday shrank by 95.4 per cent to N2.7 million from N58.2 million, as the number of deals depreciated by 75 per cent to five deals from the 20 deals recorded a day earlier.
Geo-Fluids Plc remained the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units valued at N3.9 billion, Okitipupa Plc came next with 752.2 million units sold for N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc was in third place after trading 297.3 million units worth N5.3 million.
Despite its exit from the trading platform, Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most traded stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.3 million units sold for N5.3 billion.
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