Economy
Oil Market Rises on Weaker Dollar Support
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market rose on Thursday after retail data in the United States prompted a sell-off in the Dollar, the trading currency for the commodity, with Brent crude futures up by $1.26 or 1.5 per cent to $82.86 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate crude futures up by $1.39 or 1.8 per cent to $78.03 per barrel.
The US Dollar index slid about 0.3 per cent after data showed US retail sales fell more than expected in January.
A weaker Dollar usually boosts oil prices as it makes the commodity cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Retail sales in the world’s largest economy, a signal for demand, tumbled 0.8 per cent last month, the biggest drop since March 2023, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said.
Data for December was revised lower to show sales rising 0.4 per cent instead of 0.6 per cent as previously reported. November sales were also revised down to show them unchanged, rather than rising 0.3 per cent.
The data prompted optimism around interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve going forward, which could be positive for oil demand.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global oil demand is losing momentum, prompting the agency to trim its 2024 growth forecast to 1.22 million barrels per day from 1.24 million barrels per day.
On the supply side, the IEA estimated that supply will grow by 1.7 million barrels per day this year, up from its previous forecast of 1.5 million barrels per day.
Earlier this week, the agency which represents industrialized countries, predicted oil demand will peak by 2030, undercutting the rationale for investment.
Economic woes sent warning to investors as two major economies began recessions.
The United Kingdom fell into recession in the second half of 2023 when its gross domestic product (GDP) contracted by 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter, having shrunk by 0.1 per cent in the third quarter, official data showed.
Japan also slipped into recession at the end of last year, surrendering its title as the world’s third-biggest economy to Germany.
Once the second-largest economy in the world, Japan reported two consecutive quarters of contraction on Thursday — falling 0.4 per cent on an annualized basis in the fourth quarter after a revised 3.3 per cent contraction in the third quarter.
Economy
Investors Eye Investment Opportunities in Dangote Refinery
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The planned listing of the Dangote Petroleum Refinery & Petrochemicals on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited is already attracting interest from South African investors and others.
The leadership of South Africa’s Government Employees Pension Fund (GEPF), alongside the Public Investment Corporation and Alterra Capital Partners, were recently at the Lagos-based facility.
The chairperson of GEPF, Mr Frans Baleni, said that the refinery stands as evidence that Africa can execute transformational infrastructure projects when backed by visionary leadership, long-term investment and strong technical expertise.
According to him, the significance of the project extends well beyond Nigeria’s borders, noting that it should reshape how Africa thinks about itself.
“The Dangote Refinery and Petrochemicals Complex is a powerful demonstration that, with visionary leadership and long-term capital, that perception no longer holds. This is the kind of African-led industrial scale that institutional investors on this continent should be backing,” he said.
Also speaking, the chief executive of PIC, Mr Patrick Dlamini, described the refinery as one of the most transformative industrial projects undertaken on the continent, saying it is reshaping global perceptions about Africa’s industrial capabilities and economic potential.
He said PIC, which manages about $230 billion in assets largely on behalf of South Africa’s Government Employees Pension Fund, is actively seeking long-term partnerships aligned with infrastructure development, industrialisation and economic transformation across Africa.
“There is real strategic alignment between Dangote’s industrial agenda and how we are positioning our portfolio, and we look forward to exploring meaningful avenues for collaboration,” he stated.
While receiving his visitors, the chief executive of Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, said the proposed listing is designed to democratise wealth creation and give Africans direct access to participate in the continent’s industrial transformation.
“We are opening the doors for investors to participate directly in Africa’s industrial future and the prosperity it will create,” Mr Dangote said, adding that the refinery project reflects the scale of untapped opportunities within Africa’s energy market, particularly as most countries on the continent remain dependent on imported refined petroleum products despite growing industrial demand and rising consumption.
The billionaire industrialist noted that demand for products such as polypropylene, aviation fuel and refined petroleum products has exceeded earlier projections, reinforcing the commercial viability of the refinery and shaping future expansion plans.
Economy
Nigeria’s Oil Exploration Declines 41.7% as Rig Counts Falls to 12 in April
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s oil exploration and drilling activities declined by 41.7 per cent in April 2026, following reduced upstream operations and investment activities.
According to the May 2026 Monthly Oil Market Report (MOMR) of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Nigeria’s rig count, a major indicator of upstream oil and gas activities, dropped to 12 in April 2026 from 17 recorded in March 2026.
The decline came amid persistent upstream investment and operational challenges, according to the latest monthly report released by OPEC.
Earlier data contained in the May 2026 edition of the MOMR also showed that Nigeria’s average rig count declined to 13 in 2025 from 15 recorded in 2024, indicating reduced exploration and drilling activities in the upstream petroleum sector.
The report showed that Nigeria’s rig count fell by five rigs month-on-month, from 17 rigs in March 2026 to 12 rigs in April 2026.
Rig count is widely regarded in the petroleum industry as a key indicator of exploration, field development and investment activities.
The decline comes despite ongoing efforts by the Nigerian government and industry operators to raise crude oil production, boost reserves and attract fresh upstream investments under the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)
Nigeria’s performance contrasted with the broader African trend, where total rig count increased marginally from 42 in March 2026 to 48 in April 2026.
However, Nigeria accounted for a significant share of the continent’s decline in operational rigs during the period.
Within OPEC, Nigeria remained behind major producers such as Saudi Arabia, which recorded 265 rigs in April 2026, the United Arab Emirates with 66 rigs, and Iraq with 19 rigs.
The development also comes at a time when Nigeria is struggling to meet its crude oil production quota allocated by OPEC consistently.
Economy
Nigeria’s Central Bank Holds Rate at 26.50% Despite Heightened Disruptions
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has retained the headline interest rate, the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR), at 26.50 per cent.
This was disclosed by the Governor of Nigeria’s central bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, on Wednesday, after the conclusion of the MPC meeting. He noted that the decision was hinged on Nigeria being largely insulated from external shocks relating to developments in the Middle East.
He also acknowledged that inflation and exchange rate stability were put into consideration during the two-day meeting.
The committee reduced the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th MPC gathering in February.
Nigeria’s inflation rose to 15.69 per cent in April 2026, affected by the fallout from the Iran war, which continued to impact the global economy. Noting that year-on-year, the figures show a moderation rather than worry.
The headline inflation rate for April on a month-on-month basis was 2.13 per cent, while the food inflation rate in the review month was 16.06 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
Mr Cardoso noted that the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) was also retained at 45 per cent for commercial Banks, 16 per cent for Merchant Banks, and 75 per cent for non-TSA public sector deposits.
He added that the Standing Facilities Corridor was also held flat at +50 / -450 basis points around the MPR.
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