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Oil Sheds 5% on Fuel Demand Worries Amid Rising Inflation

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Fuel Demand

By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices fell more than 5 per cent a barrel on Tuesday on fears that fuel demand could soften as global central banks hike rates to fight surging inflation.

Brent crude futures depreciated by $5.78 or 5.5 per cent to trade at $99.31 a barrel while the United States West Texas Intermediate crude dropped $5.37 or 5.5 per cent to close at $91.64 per barrel.

With inflation near double-digit territory in many top economies, central banks could resort to more aggressive interest rate increases, slowing economic growth and fuel demand.

The European Central Bank (ECB) has been advised by policymakers to include a 75-basis-point interest rate hike among its options for the September policy meeting.

In a Friday speech, US Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell said that large interest rate hikes could continue and could slow the economy for some time and that rates could be higher for longer.

In addition, the oil market swept aside, for now, concerns that the deadly clashes in Iraq would hurt the country’s oil industry and exports as unrest failed to dent the OPEC nation’s crude exports.

At least 15 people have been killed and scores of others wounded in overnight fighting in the Iraqi capital, following protestors’ storming of the presidential palace on Monday.

Fighting broke out in and around the Green Zone after hundreds of protesters loyal to powerful Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadar tore down cement barriers and charged through the Republican Palace following the cleric’s announcement on Monday that he would withdraw from politics.

Iraq can ramp up its oil exports and will not decline any requests for more crude, said Mr Alaa Al-Yassiri, director general of state oil marketing company SOMO, adding that it could redirect more oil to Europe if required.

Prices were also pressured by the strong performance of the US Dollar. A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for buyers with other currencies.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported a slight build this week for crude oil of 593,000 barrels, beating analysts’ prediction. The market will await official figures from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Investors will watch the meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies including Russia, known collectively as OPEC+, on September 5.

Saudi Arabia last week raised the possibility of production cuts from OPEC+, which sources said could coincide with a boost in supply from Iran should it clinch a nuclear deal with the West.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

IPMAN Considers Dangote Petrol for Competitive Pump Price

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Dangote refinery petrol

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

More petroleum marketers are looking to take advantage being offered by the Dangote Refinery in Lagos through its bulk-purchase incentives, allowing petrol stations to sell premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, cheaper to motorists.

Recall that recently, Dangote Refinery entered into a deal with MRS Oil Nigeria, Ardova Plc, Heyden for the purchase of petrol at least two million litres at N909 per litre.

With this agreement, MRS Oil has been able to dispense to customers at a pump price of N935 per litre across its stations in Nigeria.

For those not under this arrangement, they have been battling with price instability, especially after depot owners recently increased their price to N950 per litre from N909 per litre because of the rise in crude oil prices in the international market.

Worried by this and attracted by the bulk-purchase agreement incentives of Dangote Petroleum Refinery, the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association (IPMAN) is already having talks to buy directly from the Lagos-based oil facility.

The national president of the group, Mr Abubakar Maigandi Garima, said members are eager to sign on with Dangote Refinery for the bulk-purchase agreement.

He argued that members could not continue to depend on depot owners for products when they can buy directly from the refinery bearing in mind that the minimum quantity to buy from Dangote Refinery is two million litres at N909 per litre.

The desire to be part of the bulk-purchase agreement, it was also gathered, was also apparently being fuelled by the testimonies from motorists who have been praising the impressive burn rate of fuel sourced from Dangote Refinery and sold in MRS filing stations which they said lasts longer compared to other products imported into the country and sold by others.

The management of the Dangote Refinery, citing economic relief provided by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s crude-for-naira swap initiative, had announced a bulk-purchase offer incentives to the three leading downstream sector operators, so that Nigerians could heave a sigh of relief on the reduced pump price.

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Economy

World Bank Forecasts 3.6% GDP Growth for Nigeria in 2025

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dampen growth in Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

The World Bank has projected a 3.6 per cent economic growth for Nigerian in 2025 and 2026 on the back of ongoing reforms by the federal government.

The Bretton Wood institution in its report titled Global Economic Prospects, January 2025 published on Thursday, said recent reforms, including subsidy removal, Naira liberalisation and the introduction of tax reform bills would help to boost business confidence.

“In Nigeria, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth increased to an estimated 3.3 per cent in 2024, mainly driven by services sector activity, particularly in financial and telecommunication services.

“Macroeconomic and fiscal reforms helped improve business confidence. In response to rising inflation and a weak naira, the central bank tightened monetary policy.

“Meanwhile, the fiscal deficit narrowed due to a surge in revenues driven by the elimination of the implicit foreign exchange subsidy, following the unification of the exchange rate and improved revenue administration,” a part of the report stated.

The World Bank noted that the wider Sub-Saharan Africa, to which Nigeria belongs would see a 4.1 per cent growth in the current year, before seeing a 4.3 per cent rise in 2026.

“Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa, SSA is expected to firm to 4.1 per cent in 2025 and 4.3 per cent in 2026, as financial conditions ease alongside further declines in inflation. Following weaker-than-expected regional growth last year, growth projections for 2025 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage points, and for 2026 by 0.3 percentage points, with improvements seen across various subgroups. At the country level, projected growth has been upgraded for nearly half of SSA economies in both 2025 and 2026.

“Growth in Nigeria is forecast to strengthen to an average of 3.6 per cent a year in 2025-26. Following monetary policy tightening in 2024, inflation is projected to gradually decline, boosting consumption and supporting growth in the services sector, which continues to be the main driver of growth,” it added.

The global lender disclosed that oil production is expected to increase over the forecast period but remain below the 1.5 million barrels per day quota of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

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Economy

Nigeria’s Unlisted Securities Close Higher by 0.35%

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unlisted securities exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

Four price gainers helped the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange close higher by 0.35 per cent on Thursday, January 16.

The value of the trading platform jumped by N3.69 billion during the session to N1.072 trillion from the N1.068 trillion it closed in the preceding session, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) made an addition of 10.67 points to wrap the session at 3,103.83 points compared with 3,093.16 points recorded at the previous session.

Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc added 3 Kobo to its price yesterday to trade at 33 Kobo per unit compared with Wednesday’s closing price of 30 Kobo per unit, Newrest Asl Plc appreciated by N2.85 to N31.18 per share from N28.53 per share, 11 Plc gained N2.90 to close at N256.00 per unit versus the N253.10 per unit it finished a day earlier, and  FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc grew by 21 Kobo to N39.16 per share, in contrast to midweek’s N38.95 per share.

On Thursday. there was an 85.3 per cent increase in the volume of securities traded by investors to 1.2 million units from the 666,494 units recorded in the preceding session, the value of shares traded surged by 8.9 per cent to N18.0 million from N16.5 million, and the number of deals leapt by 65 per cent to 33 deals from 20 deals.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 3.4 million units worth N134.9 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units sold for N43.0 million, and Afriland Properties Plc valued at 690,825 sold for N11.1 million.

IGI Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 23.5 million units sold for N5.3 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units valued at N43.0 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc followed with 3.4 million units worth N134.9 million.

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