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PwC Projects 4.3% GDP Growth for Nigeria in 2026

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By Adedapo Adesanya

PwC Nigeria has projected that Nigeria’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) would grow at about 4.3 per cent this year, supported by higher crude oil production and stronger performance in dominant sectors.

The consultancy firm gave this projection in its Economic Outlook 2026 released on Wednesday.

It also said the Naira is expected to remain broadly stable through 2026, underpinned by ongoing reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and improved portfolio inflows.

Headline inflation is also projected to moderately ease, supported by the CBN’s tight monetary policy stance, rebasing effects, and improved stability in the foreign exchange market.

With regards to interest rate, the PwC report said with inflation trending down, the apex bank may cautiously ease its monetary policy stance this year.

The report, however, said fiscal sustainability risks are expected to persist, driven by low revenue to GDP, fiscal leakages, higher spending and elevated debt service obligations.

PwC Nigeria said with fiscal constraints persisting, they reinforce the importance of capital efficiency and balance-sheet discipline.

Against this backdrop, PwC Nigeria highlights practical imperatives for business leaders in 2026: making selective investment bets in attractive sectors and regions, and scenario-planning for macroeconomic and geopolitical shocks.

Other imperatives for business leaders include adapting business models and cost structures for resilience, accelerating digital transformation and responsible AI adoption, and strengthening regulatory and tax compliance as reforms move from design to execution.

The firm noted that Nigeria recorded improvements in macroeconomic stability in 2025 following key monetary and foreign-exchange reforms, with inflation easing, exchange-rate conditions stabilising, and external reserves strengthening.

Speaking on this, the Country Senior Partner, PwC Nigeria, Mr Sam Abu, said: “PwC Nigeria’s Economic Outlook 2026 provides forward-looking analysis of key macroeconomic indicators and what they signal for the economy and for business leaders.

“Nigeria has achieved improved macroeconomic stability over the past year. The focus now is how that stability is translated into sustainable economic growth, and how businesses position for 2026. For companies, this stability provides a more predictable operating environment for planning, investment, and growth decisions.”

On his part, the Partner and Chief Economist, PwC Nigeria, Mr Olusegun Zaccheaus, said, “Globally, growth is projected at around 3.1 per cent, while merchandise trade growth slows to about 0.5 per cent, keeping oil prices, capital flows, and access to foreign inflows as key channels influencing Nigeria’s growth and FX liquidity.

“Domestically, improved monetary effectiveness has reduced volatility and clarified pricing, cost, and funding signals, even as fiscal pressures, security challenges, and weak household purchasing power continue to shape sector outcomes.”

According to Mr Zaccheaus, “growth is more likely to remain concentrated in services and selected capital-intensive sectors, placing a premium on disciplined capital allocation and sector selection.”

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Fidson, Jaiz Bank, Others Keep NGX in Green Territory

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By Dipo Olowookere

A further 0.99 per cent was gained by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday after a positive market breadth index supported by 53 price gainers, which outweighed 23 price losers, representing bullish investor sentiment.

During the trading day, the trio of Jaiz Bank, Fidson, and NPF Microfinance Bank chalked up 10.00 per cent each to sell for N11.00, N86.90, and N6.27, respectively, while Deap Capital appreciated by 9.96 per cent to N7.62, and Mutual Benefits increased by 9.94 per cent to N5.42.

Conversely, Secure Electronic Technology shed 10.00 per cent to trade at N1.62, Sovereign Trust Insurance slipped by 9.73 per cent to N2.32, Ellah Lakes declined by 7.91 per cent to N12.80, International Energy Insurance retreated by 5.56 per cent to N3.40, and ABC Transport moderated by 5.26 per cent to N9.00.

Data from Customs Street revealed that the insurance counter was up by 2.52 per cent, the industrial goods sector grew by 2.28 per cent, the banking space expanded by 1.43 per cent, the consumer goods index gained 1.23 per cent, and the energy industry rose by 0.05 per cent.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 1,916.20 points to 194,989.77 points from 193,073.57 points, and the market capitalisation moved up by N1.230 trillion to N125.164 trillion from Thursday’s N123.934 trillion.

Yesterday, investors traded 820.5 million stocks valued at N28.3 billion in 63,507 deals compared with the 898.5 million stocks worth N38.5 billion executed in 61,953 deals, showing a jump in the number of deals by 2.51 per cent, and a shortfall in the trading volume and value by 8.68 per cent and 26.49 per cent apiece.

Closing the session as the most active equity was Mutual Benefits with 79.0 million units worth N427.1 million, Zenith Bank traded 44.0 million units valued at N3.8 billion, Chams exchanged 43.9 million units for N182.0 million, AIICO Insurance transacted 42.4 million units valued at N179.8 million, and Veritas Kapital sold 36.0 million units worth N90.6 million.

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Economy

Brent Climbs to $71 on Fears of US Military Action Against Iran

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The price of Brent crude oil grade went up by 0.14 per cent or 10 cents to $71.76 per barrel on Friday as investors worried about US military action against Iran, as President Donald Trump presses the Islamic Republic to halt nuclear weapon development.

However, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil grade finished at $66.39 a barrel after going down by 4 cents or 0.06 per cent.

The market awaited developments in the struggle between Iran and the US after President Trump said, “We have to make a meaningful deal, otherwise bad things happen,” referring to Iran.

The main concern for the crude oil market is that military activity will lead to a supply disruption if Iran decides to block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 per cent of the world’s oil consumption passes through that waterway. Conflict in the area could limit oil entering the global market and push up prices.

There is the fear that a potential US military campaign in Iran could disrupt shipping in the Middle East are also adding upward pressure on supertanker rates.

Traders and investors ramped up purchases of call options on Brent crude in recent days, betting on higher prices.

Also supporting oil were reports of falling crude stocks and limited exports in the world’s biggest oil-producing and exporting countries. US crude inventories dropped by 9 million barrels as refining utilisation and exports climbed, an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed on Thursday.

Markets were also considering the impact of ample supply, with talks of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April.

Eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman will meet on March 1. The eight members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to the end of December 2025, equating to about 3 per cent of global demand, and froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption.

Meanwhile, the oil market shrugged off a US Supreme Court decision ruling unconstitutional President Trump’s use of a law to levy tariffs in national emergencies.

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Economy

PENGASSAN Kicks Against Tinubu’s Executive Order on Oil, Gas Revenues

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has faulted the Executive Order signed by President Bola Tinubu on oil and gas revenues.

President Tinubu this week signed the Executive Order, titled The Upstream Petroleum Operations Cost Efficiency Incentives Order (2025), to safeguard and enhance oil and gas revenues for the Federation, curb wasteful spending, eliminate duplicative structures in the sector, and redirect resources for the benefit of the Nigerian people.

However, at a press conference in Abuja, PENGASSAN president, Mr Festus Osifo, argued that the tax incentives granted to oil companies by the President may not help in the reduction of cost if insecurity is not addressed.

“The Executive Order signed by the President yesterday is a direct attack on the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)—specifically Sections 8, 9, and 64,” Mr Osifo said.

“What the President has done is use an Executive Order to set aside a law of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. This is deeply troubling. What signal are we sending to investors and the international community?

“We are effectively telling them that the law of the land can be set aside by a simple executive decree. This is an aberration and should never have happened.”

According to a statement by the presidential spokesperson, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the President signed the EO in pursuance of Section 5 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended).

The Executive Order is anchored on Section 44(3) of the Constitution, which vests ownership, control, and derivative rights in all minerals, mineral oils, and natural gas in, under, and upon any land in Nigeria—including its territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zone—in the Government of the Federation.

The directive seeks to restore the constitutional revenue entitlements of the federal, state, and local governments, which were removed in 2021 by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

According to Mr Onanuga, the PIA created structural and legal channels through which substantial Federation revenues are lost via deductions, sundry charges, and fees.

Under the current PIA framework, NNPC Limited retains 30 per cent of the Federation’s oil revenues as a management fee on Profit Oil and Profit Gas derived from Production Sharing Contracts, Profit Sharing Contracts, and Risk Service Contracts. Additionally, the company retains 20 per cent of its profits for working capital and future investments.

The federal government considers the additional 30 per cent management fee unjustified, as the 20 per cent retained earnings are already sufficient to support NNPC Limited’s functions under these contracts.

Moreover, NNPC Limited also retains another 30 per cent of profit oil and profit gas under the Frontier Exploration Fund, as stipulated in sections 9(4) and (5) of the PIA.

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