Economy
Russia’s Summit on Africa: Challenges, Implications and Beyond
By Kester Kenn Klomegah
With highly expected symbolism, Russia’s primary focus at the forthcoming November summit in St. Petersburg with African leaders, corporate business directors, representatives from the academic community, civil society organizations and media will largely be renewing most of its unfulfilled bilateral agreements and making new pledges that will, as usual, be incorporated into a second joint declaration.
Brilliant speeches reminded of long-standing traditions of friendship and solidarity, how Soviets assisted African countries in their struggle to attain independence and established statehood, and further highlighted neo-colonialism tendencies wide spreading on the continent.
That Russia stands with Africa on matters of strengthening peace and stability on the continent and ensuring regional security. Next is absolute readiness to engage in broadening cooperation in all economic sectors.
While the first summit was described as highly successful due to its spectacular blistering symbolism and has offered the necessary solid impetus for raising to qualitative level the multifaceted relations, especially in the economic spheres with Africa, much has still not been pursued as expected. Behind the shadows of the bilateral agreements, some of the projects were simultaneously assigned to either Western or European investors.
Long before the historic summit, the African foreign minister and delegations had lined up visiting Moscow. Those frequent official visits were intended to show off that Russia is in high demand as indicated in a 150-paged new policy released last November by a group of 25 leading experts headed by Sergei A. Karaganov, the Honorary Chairman of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defence Policy.
The report vividly highlighted some pitfalls and shortcomings in Russia’s approach towards Africa. It further pointed to Russia’s consistent failure in honouring its several agreements and pledges over the years. It decried the increased number of bilateral and high-level meetings that yield little or bring to the fore no definitive results. In addition, insufficient and disorganized Russian African lobbying combined with a lack of “information hygiene” at all levels of public speaking, says the policy report.
There are, indeed, to demonstrate “demand for Russia” in the non-Western world; the formation of ad hoc political alliances with African countries geared towards competition with the collective West. Apart from the absence of a public strategy for the continent, there is a lack of coordination among various state and para-state institutions working with Africa.
Despite the growth of external players’ influence and presence in Africa, Russia has to intensify and redefine its parameters. Russia’s foreign policy strategy regarding Africa has to spell out and incorporate the development needs of African countries.
Unlike most competitors, Russia has to promote an understandable agenda for Africa: working more on sovereignty, continental integration, infrastructure development, human development (education and medicine), security (including the fight against hunger and epidemics), normal universal human values, the idea that people should live with dignity and feel protected.
Nearly all the Russian experts who participated in putting the report together unreservedly agreed with this view. The main advantage of such an agenda is that it may be more oriented to the needs of Africans than those of its Western and European competitors. It is advisable to present such a strategy already at the second Russia-Africa summit and discuss and coordinate it with African partners before that. Along with the strategy, it is advisable to adopt an Action Plan – a practical document that would fill cooperation with substance between summits.
Vsevolod Tkachenko, the Director of the Africa Department of the Russian Foreign Ministry, stated during one of the preparatory meetings, “the African partners expect concrete deeds, maximum substantive ideas and useful proposals.” The current task is to demonstrate results and highlight achievements to the African side. Over the past years, African countries have witnessed many bilateral agreements, memoranda of understanding and pledges.
Russia has to set different narratives about its aspirations and intentions of returning to Africa. The approach has to move from rhetoric and mere declarations of interest. Since the basis of the summit remains the economic interaction between Russia and Africa, “the ideas currently being worked out on new possible instruments to encourage Russian exports to Africa, Russian investments to the continent, such as a fund to support direct investment in Africa, all these deserve special attention,” Tkachenko says.
According to an official report posted on the website, Russia’s Foreign Affairs Minister Sergei Lavrov, during the “Government Hour” in the State Duma on January 26, stated that the “cooperation with African countries has expanded to reach new frontiers. Together with African friends, we are working on preparations for the second Russia-Africa summit scheduled to be held this year.” Previously, for instance, Lavrov explicitly indicated: “Russia’s political ties, in particular, are developing dynamically. But economic cooperation is not as far advanced as political ties.”
Many experts have expressed concern about the relationship between Russia and Africa, most often comparing it with other foreign players on the continent within the framework of sustainable development there in Africa. It is about time to make meaningful efforts to implement tons of bilateral agreements already signed with African countries.
“Russia, of course, is not satisfied with this state of affairs. At present diplomacy dominates its approach: a plethora of agreements were signed with many African countries, official visits proliferate apace, but the outcomes remain hardly discernible,” Professor Gerrit Olivier from the Department of Political Sciences, the University of Pretoria in South Africa and a former South African Ambassador to the Russian Federation wrote in an emailed comment.
“While, given its global status, Russia ought to be active in Africa as Western Europe, the European Union, America and China are, it is all but absent, playing a negligible role. Be that as it may, the Kremlin has revived its interest in the African continent and it will be realistic to expect that the spadework it is putting in now will at some stage show more tangible results,” Olivier added.
Zimbabwe’s Ambassador to Russia, Brigadier General (rtd) Nicholas Mike Sango, who has been in his post since July 2015, expresses his views on the relations between Africa and the Russian Federation. While Russia has traditional ties with Africa, its economic footprints are not growing as expected. It has however attempting to transform the much boasted political relations into a more comprehensive and broad economic cooperation, he noted in his conversation with me.
He pointed to the disparity in the level of development, the diversity of cultures and aspirations of the peoples of the two regions, there is a growing realization that Africa is an important partner in the “emerging and sustainable polycentric architecture of the world order” as Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has aptly asserted. But in fact, Africa’s critical mass can only be ignored at great risk, therefore.
For a long time, Russia’s foreign policy on Africa has failed to pronounce itself in practical terms as evidenced by the countable forays into Africa by Russian officials. The Russian Federation has shied away from economic cooperation with Africa, making forays into the few countries that it has engaged in the last few years. African leaders hold Russia in high esteem as evidenced by a large number of African embassies in Moscow. Furthermore, Russia has no colonial legacy in Africa, according to the Zimbabwean diplomat.
Ambassador Sango, who previously held various high-level posts such as military adviser in Zimbabwe’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations, and as an international instructor in the Southern African Development Community (SADC), also said that “Russia has not responded in the manner expected by Africa, as has China, India and South Korea, to name a few. Africa’s expectation is that Russia, while largely in the extractive industry, will steadily transfer technologies for local processing of raw materials as a catalyst for Africa’s development.”
While Russia and Africa have common positions on the global platform, the need to recognize and appreciate the aspirations of the common man cannot be overstated. Africa desires economic upliftment, human security in the form of education, health, shelter as well as security from transnational terrorism among many challenges afflicting Africa. The Russian Federation has the capacity and ability to assist Africa to overcome these challenges leveraging on Africa’s vast resources, Ambassador Sango concluded.
For more than three decades after the Soviet collapse in 1991, Russia has had different degrees of political relations and currently looking forward to building stronger economic cooperation. During these years, the relations have also transited through distinctive phases taking cognizance of challenges and fast-changing global politics.
In an interview discussion for this story, Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey, the Minister of Foreign Affairs and Regional Integration of Ghana explains to this research writer that “Although, for a relationship lasting this long with Africa, one would have expected it to move past where it is now. In short, there is still room for improvement, in fostering particularly stronger economic ties.”
It is hoped that Russia continues consistently to catch up with other active foreign competitors, makes attempts to transform the well-developed political relations with broader economic cooperation in the coming years. Ultimately, emphasis should also be placed on developing ‘people-to-people’ relations, whereby the peoples of both countries would have a better understanding of each other.
Critically not much has been achieved, looking at the Russia-Africa relations from the perspective of regional organizations – especially the Southern African Development Community (SADC), when it was headed by Lawrence Stergomena. Regrettably, she explained during discussions with me that like most of the developing countries, Southern African countries have largely relied on multilateral and regional development financial institutions to fund their development projects.
In this regard, SADC welcomes investors from all over the world. In reality, Russia has not been that visible in the region as compared to China, India or Brazil. On the other hand, it is encouraging that Russia is currently attempting to position itself to be a major partner with Southern Africa, underlined Stergomena, and further explained that the SADC is an inter-governmental organization with its primary goal of deepening socio-economic cooperation and integration in the southern region.
Dr Babafemi A. Badejo, Professor of Political Science and International Relations at Chrisland University, Abeokuta, Nigeria, argues that many foreign players and investors are now looking forward to exploring several opportunities in the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which provides unique and valuable access to an integrated African market of over 1.2 billion people. In practical reality, it aims at creating a continental market for goods and services, with free movement of businesspeople and investments in Africa.
Badejo argues further that Russia’s gradual engagement can be boosted by African media popularizing and boosting knowledge on such engagements by Russia. Hosting the next summit would feed very well into popularizing Russia’s efforts at engagement with African leaders. However, promoting relations with the continent of Africa would require more than a one-off event with African leaders who have varying levels of legitimacy from performance or lack of it in their respective countries.
Interestingly, and at the current moment, not much of Russia’s image is promoted by the media in Africa. African media should have the opportunity to report more about Russian corporate presence in Africa and their added value to the realization of the sustainable development goals in Africa. This corporate presence can support the building of the media image of Russia in Africa through involvement with people-at-large oriented activities.
In this final analysis, Russia has to make consistent efforts in building its media network that could further play a key role in strengthening relations with Africa, the academic professor noted in his lengthy discussions on Russia-Africa and concluded that it is Western perception and narrative of Russia that pervades the African media. Russia needs to do more in using media to tell its own story and interest in Africa.
President Vladimir Putin noted at the VTB Capital’s Russia Calling Forum, that many countries had been “stepping up their activities on the African continent” but added that Russia could not cooperate with Africa “as it was in the Soviet period, for political reasons.” In his opinion, cooperation with African countries could be developed on a bilateral basis as well as on a multilateral basis, through the framework of BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa).
With its impressive relations, Russia has not pledged publicly concrete funds toward implementing its policy objectives in Africa. Its investment efforts have been limited thus far which some experts attributed to the lack of a system of financing. While Russians are very cautious about making financial commitments, the financial institutions are not closely involved in foreign policy initiatives in Africa.
In addition, experts have identified lack of effective coordination and follow-ups combined with inconsistency are basic factors affecting the entire relations with Africa. While the first summit is still considered as the largest symbolic event in history, many significant issues in the joint declaration have not been pursued and that could lay down a comprehensive strategic roadmap for building the future Russia-African relations.
As publicly known, China, Japan and India have committed funds publicly during their summits, while large investment funds have also come from the United States and European Union, all towards realizing various economic and infrastructure projects and further collaborating in new interesting areas as a greater significant part of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Africa.
Economy
FG Targets Low-Carbon Growth in Blue Economy
By Adedapo Adesanya
The federal government has reaffirmed its commitment to climate-responsive and sustainable practices as core pillars for developing Nigeria’s marine and blue economy.
This is contained in a press statement on Tuesday by Mrs Anastasia Ogbonna, Director, Information and Public Relations, Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy.
According to the statement, the Permanent Secretary, Federal Ministry of Marine and Blue Economy (FMMBE), Mrs Fatima Mahmood, made this known while receiving a delegation from Invest International, a Dutch state-owned development finance institution under the Netherlands Ministry of Finance, led by Ms Fenna Zoe Howkamp.
Mrs Mahmood disclosed that the Ministry was actively mainstreaming climate considerations into its policies and programmes, with a sharp focus on reducing carbon footprints, conserving marine ecosystems, and promoting environmentally responsible resource utilisation.
She noted that global attention is increasingly shifting to the sustainable exploration of marine resources, including emerging areas such as marine mining.
According to her, Nigeria is aligning with international best practices to ensure such activities proceed without adverse environmental impact, while safeguarding critical ecosystems such as coral reefs.
She further identified the fisheries subsector as a priority, stressing its critical role in boosting food and nutrition security and creating jobs. While acknowledging Nigeria’s vast marine and freshwater resources, she pointed to significant opportunities for investment and growth within the subsector.
The Permanent Secretary reiterated the Ministry’s openness to strategic partnerships, particularly in port services and marine infrastructure, to unlock the long-term investment required for sustainable development.
She assured the delegation of Nigeria’s readiness to collaborate with international partners to drive innovation, investment, and sustainability in the blue economy.
In her remarks, the Head of Public Finance for Invest International (Southern Africa Region, including Nigeria), Ms Fenna Howkamp, reaffirmed the Netherlands’ commitment to deepening collaboration with the Ministry.
She highlighted the organisation’s expertise in marine and water management and presented specific project proposals, including a coastal protection initiative with an accompanying feasibility study, and nature-based solutions for drainage and water supply systems.
Ms Howkamp underscored the shared interest in developing resilient public infrastructure within the blue economy and expressed readiness to align proposed initiatives with the Ministry’s priority areas.
She also outlined Invest International’s financing options, which include up to 35% funding support for public infrastructure projects valued between €100 million and €150 million.
According to her, such financing could be structured through co-financing arrangements with institutions like the World Bank and the European Investment Bank, or through direct lending to the Ministry.
She called for sustained engagement to formalise feasibility studies and identify partners to advance coastal protection and other blue economy initiatives that promote sustainable, nature-based solutions for Nigeria’s coastal communities.
Economy
IMF Downgrades Nigeria’s 2026 Growth Forecast to 4.1%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has downgraded Nigeria’s 2026 growth forecast to 4.1 per cent due to the ripple effect of the Middle East war.
The revision was announced at the IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings in Washington, D.C., where officials warned that war-related energy and supply shocks are undercutting recovery across the region.
IMF Chief Economist, Mr Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the downgrade reflects broader pressures facing energy-importing countries.
“On Sub-Saharan Africa, we are seeing some downgrade of growth, and we are seeing some uptick in inflation in a number of countries in the region,” Mr Gourinchas noted.
“The impact is very much along the lines of what we see more broadly — for a lot of the countries, especially the ones that are energy importers,” he added.
He added that the global lender is “following with a number of countries what their needs may be in the current environment” and coordinating with the International Energy Agency and the World Bank on energy market disruptions.
Speaking further, the Chief of the IMF Research Department’s World Economic Studies Division, Ms Denz Igan, said the 0.3 percentage point cut reflects competing pressures.
“War-related higher fuel and fertiliser prices and higher shipping costs are going to weigh on non-oil activity in Nigeria,” Ms Igan said. “There’s some offset coming from higher oil prices, but the net balance is weaker growth in 2026, with some recovery built in for 2027.”
The IMF also projects that median inflation in Sub-Saharan Africa will rise from 3.4 per cent in 2025 to 5 per cent in 2026, driven by high oil and fertiliser prices, potential fuel shortages, and rising costs.
For Nigeria, she said, a tight monetary policy will be “crucial to achieve the inflation target of the central bank.”
The IMF noted that bilateral aid to Sub-Saharan Africa has fallen by 16 per cent to 20 per cent in 2025, removing a key buffer just as commodity and shipping costs spike.
It said assuming that the ongoing conflict remains limited in duration and scope, global growth is projected to slow to 3.1 per cent in 2026 and 3.2 per cent in 2027.
Global headline inflation is projected to rise modestly in 2026 before resuming its decline in 2027. Slowdown in growth and an increase in inflation are expected to be particularly pronounced in emerging market and developing economies.
The Bretton Woods institution said global inflation is expected to tick up in 2026 and resume its decline in 2027. Pressures are concentrated in emerging markets and developing economies, especially commodity importers with preexisting vulnerabilities. Risks are decisively on the downside.
Economy
El-Rufai Gets Bail in Ongoing ICPC Corruption Proceedings
By Adedapo Adesanya
Former Kaduna Governor Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai has been granted bail in the ongoing corruption case filed by the Independent Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Commission (ICPC).
However, Mr El-Rufai will remain in ICPC custody until he fulfils all the bail conditions set by the court.
The development was confirmed by his son, Mr Bello El-Rufai, shortly after the ruling.
This comes amid separate proceedings at the Kaduna State High Court, where the ICPC recently amended its charges against the former governor. Mr El-Rufai has pleaded not guilty to the allegations.
The chieftain of the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) was arraigned by the ICPC over charges related to alleged corruption and abuse of office during his tenure in the North-Western state from 2015 to 2023. Allegations ranging from abuse of office and fraud to intent to commit fraud and conferring undue advantage were levied against the politician.
The commission disclosed that both charges were instituted on March 18, 2026, as part of its ongoing efforts to enforce accountability and combat corruption.
The scrutiny of Mr El-Rufai by the ICPC follows the report of the Kaduna State House of Assembly’s ad hoc committee constituted in 2024 to investigate finances, loans and contracts awarded between 2015 and 2023 under his eight-year administration of the state.
Presenting the committee’s report during plenary last year, the committee chairman, Mr Henry Zacharia, alleged that most of the loans obtained by the El-Rufai administration within the eight years were not utilised for the purposes for which they were secured.
While receiving the report, the Speaker of the House, Mr Yusuf Dahiru Leman, alleged that about N423 billion was siphoned under the El-Rufai administration, leaving Kaduna State with heavy financial liabilities and a rising debt profile.
The committee recommended the investigation and prosecution of the former governor and several members of his cabinet over alleged abuse of office, award of contracts without due process, diversion of public funds, money laundering and reckless borrowing.
The Assembly subsequently endorsed a petition to the EFCC and the ICPC, urging them to take up the matter.
The embattled former FCT Minister is equally embroiled in a case with the federal government over alleged unlawful interception of the phone communications of the National Security Adviser, Mr Nuhu Ribadu.
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