Economy
Seplat Plc: Will the Bulls Crossover?
By ARM Research
Following our last note, Seplat Plc – Revision to Forecast published on Nov 7th, Seplat has returned 20.5% with YTD return of 57%.
Much of the early gains was underpinned by the lifting of force majeure on the Trans-Forcados Pipeline (TFP) which drove a marked rebound in performance in the third quarter of 2017 with the company posting profit after tax (PAT) of $22.3million, after realizing losses in six consecutive quarters.
Particularly, oil revenue at $115million almost doubled from the prior quarter, anchored by higher production of 26.4kbpd while gas sales remained resilient posting $31.5 million (+7.5% QoQ) as gross daily gas output touched a high of 352Mscfd (working interest: 111Mscfd).
At the latter, it was a play of cheap valuation and bargain hunting. In sync with our investment case for Seplat which tilts towards 2018 wherein we had projected a substantial upside in earnings hinged on balance sheet deleveraging as well as improved and more stable P&L.
Our view was premised on the company’s return to past production levels and de-risked earnings via the addition of a new export route to existing two routes.
Consequently, we had earlier forecasted a 90-day downtime in 2018 with working interest production forecast of 45.5bopd and over four-fold increase in PAT to $108.6 million (2017E: $19.4 million). In line with this adjustment, Seplat remained well positioned to relatively outperform its larger peers, trading at a 2018 P/CF of 1.7x compared to African peers’ and FTSE 350 Oil & Gas index of 5.5x and 12.05x respectively. As it stands, the stock is currently trading at a premium of 130bps to our last communicated FVE of N588.11.
So how does it look from here?
Beyond our earlier views on higher production, lower all-in cost, balance sheet deleveraging and deceleration in Capex which should drive cash-flow and ROE improvement, the recent rally in crude oil prices (Brent) and Seplat’ s tax allowance provision (estimate: $98 million) provides fresh upside to earnings.
Riding the oil price upswing. As a pure E&P play, Seplat’s earnings are more sensitive to oil prices. Consequently, we run a scenario analysis of 2018 key financial metrics at varying crude oil prices while keeping our production forecast intact. From our analysis, every $5/bbl. increase in Brent crude prices could lift 2018 earnings by ~25%; while every $5/bbl increase in long-term oil price could raise our FVE by about N45/share or 8%.
We have now raised our 2018 earnings by 26% in FY 2018, in line with the accelerated rebalancing in the crude oil market and house views on 2018 Brent price (base case of $60/bbl.). However, crude oil prices below $40/bbl. and a reappearance of insecurity in the Niger delta may trigger a downward review to earnings.
Balance sheet should de-leverage significantly. We think net debt to free cash flow will fall sizably from the current level of 1.7x to 1.2x by FY 18. Seplat is expected to rake in stronger operating cash flows of c.$300million over 2018 well above capital spending (estimate: $20 million capex). With the significant deleveraging in the balance sheet based on our estimates, there is clear capacity for enhanced shareholder return via resumption of dividend payments in 2018. Furthermore, while Seplat has no explicit dividend policy, we find that full-year dividend per share (DPS) has displayed strong correlation to its operating cash flow per share. Thus, with earnings and operating cash flow expected to rebound in FY 2018 on higher oil prices and production, we assume that DPS in FY 2018 will be $0.05.
Key Risks. Lower-than-expected oil prices and production are the key risks. The most apparent near-term driver for such a scenario would be an increase in US crude oil supply as well as the risk of OPEC falling apart. Upside risk would stem from the contrary, if oil prices increase above projected levels. Also, return of security concerns in the Niger Delta in the run-up to election is another key risk to earnings. However, with three alternative export routes, Seplat is in a better position than prior year.
Valuation is more compelling. We raise our FVE from N588.11 to N663.85 after reviewing our model and considering the possibility of higher crude oil prices. Our revised target equates to 2018 P/E and P/CF of 5.0x and 1.4x compared with African peers of 14.4x and 3.5x respectively.
Source: ARM Securities Limited
“All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited.”
Economy
Verto Introduces Dollar Business Accounts to Power US–Africa Trade Flows
By Adedapo Adesanya
Vert, a global cross-border payments platform, has announced a new solution under Verto Business Accounts that enables US-registered businesses to move money seamlessly between the United States and Africa.
With the ability to open a US Dollar account in their business name and have access to trusted emerging market payment rails, companies can now receive, hold, and transfer funds faster, more cost-effectively, and with greater control.
US-registered businesses with operations in Africa often encounter significant banking limitations, with US banks frequently delaying or blocking transactions to or from African markets, imposing high or hidden FX costs, and offering limited access to Emerging Market payment corridors. Businesses without a US bank account registered in their own name must rely on fragmented tools or intermediaries to move funds to Africa, creating operational inefficiencies and slowing growth.
Verto’s new solution directly addresses these challenges by giving US-domiciled businesses access to named USD accounts and a robust cross-border payment infrastructure, enabling them to move funds and settle transactions in local currencies with speed and efficiency.
Built for venture-backed startups, import-export SMEs, and investors funding emerging market innovation, this solution will enable clients to receive funds directly into a named USD business account from US based customers or investors, convert and settle between USD and local currencies such as NGN and KES quickly and at lower cost, as well as hold, receive, and pay in 48 currencies from a single dashboard.
The solution will also allow users to pay contractors, suppliers, and offshore teams instantly via local payment rails. It also equips teams with virtual cards to spend in 11 currencies without fees and leverage specialised onboarding and monitoring that navigates both US and African regulatory requirements
By combining US and African compliance expertise, Verto’s Business Accounts empowers companies to maintain a US domestic presence for investors, customers, and suppliers while using deep-liquidity rails to pay global contractors and settle trades in local currencies efficiently, ensuring uninterrupted trade, payroll, and investment flows, without the risk of blocked or delayed transactions.
“We believe founders building across borders should not be constrained by the limitations of traditional banking,” said Ola Oyetayo, CEO of Verto. “Providing named accounts in the US empowers businesses with the funds they need to operate globally, connecting the US and Africa more efficiently without friction.”
With over 8 years of experience and $25 billion in annual global cross-border transaction volume, Verto continues to provide the infrastructure, expertise, and trusted payment rails businesses need to operate confidently across borders and scale globally.
Economy
PEBEC Blocks Introduction of New Policies by MDAs
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) has directed Ministries, Departments, and Agencies (MDAs) to suspend the introduction of new policies and regulatory changes to prevent disruptions to businesses.
The directive was issued in a statement by PEBEC director-general, Mrs Zahrah Mustapha-Audu, on Monday in Abuja, noting that the move is part of the Federal Government’s broader effort to improve regulatory quality, ensure policy consistency, and strengthen Nigeria’s ease of doing business environment.
The council emphasised that the suspension will remain in place until all MDAs fully comply with the Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, which governs evidence-based policymaking across government institutions.
The council said the directive is aimed at ensuring that all government policies are backed by verifiable data and do not negatively impact businesses or investors.
“It is imperative to emphasise that no new reform or policy will be permitted to proceed without being grounded in clear, verifiable evidence,” said Mrs Mustapha-Audu.
“The framework provides the structured mechanism through which such evidence-based decisions can be rigorously developed, assessed, and validated.
“This directive is necessary to prevent policy shocks that may adversely affect businesses, investors, and citizens, as well as to eliminate policy inconsistencies and frequent reversals.”
She added that the government remains committed to working collaboratively with regulators and does not intend to embarrass any institution.
The Regulatory Impact Analysis (RIA) Framework, introduced in January 2025, is designed to improve transparency and ensure that policies undergo proper evaluation before implementation.
All MDAs are required to align new policies and amendments with the RIA framework before approval and rollout.
The framework has been circulated by the Office of the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) and is available on the PEBEC website.
MDAs are encouraged to seek technical support from the PEBEC Secretariat to ensure proper implementation.
Exceptions to the directive will only be granted in cases of urgent national interest, subject to appropriate approvals.
PEBEC noted that the framework will help institutionalise evidence-based policymaking, enhance transparency, and improve stakeholder confidence in government decisions.
Economy
DMO Sells 3-Year FGN Savings Bond at 14.082% for April Batch
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Subscription for the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) savings bonds for April 2026 has opened, a circular from the Debt Management Office (DMO) on Tuesday, April 7, 2026, confirmed.
The debt office is selling the retail debt instrument for this month in two tenors of two years and three years.
Offer for the savings bonds opened today and will close on Friday, April 10, 2026, a part of the disclosure stated.
The 2-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2028, is being sold at a coupon rate of 13.082 per cent per annum, while the 3-year FGN savings bond due April 15, 2029, is being sold at a coupon rate of 14.082 per cent per annum.
The interests are paid every quarter, and the bullet repayment to subscribers on the maturity date.
The bonds are sold at N1,000 per unit, subject to a minimum subscription of N5,000 and in multiples of N1,000 thereafter, subject to a maximum subscription of N50 million.
Interested investors are required to reach out to the stockbroking firms appointed as distribution agents by the DMO via the agency’s website.
An FGN savings bond qualifies as securities in which trustees can invest under the Trustee Investment Act. It also qualifies as government securities within the meaning of the Company Income Tax Act (CITA) and the Personal Income Tax Act (PITA) for tax exemption for pension funds, amongst other investors, meaning it is tax-free.
It can be used as a liquid asset for liquidity ratio calculation for banks, and is listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited to allow for easy exit (liquidation) before maturity by selling at the secondary market.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism10 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz3 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking8 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy3 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn
