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Economy

Surge in COVID-19 Cases, Inventories Build to Impact Oil Prices This Week

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Oil prices marked another positive closing last week, pushed by indications of economic recovery in the world’s largest crude producer, the United States, amidst rising coronavirus cases and a fear of a weakening demand for the commodity.

The international benchmark, Brent Crude, settled at $43.14 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $40.65 per barrel last Friday ahead of the American Independence Day holiday over the weekend.

However, gains were capped and there was careful approach by traders ahead of a long holiday weekend as a resurgence in the US coronavirus infections created concerns that economic activity will weaken in coming weeks.

Last week, the US recorded a daily global record of more than 55,000 new coronavirus cases as infections rose in the vast majority of states, fanning concerns about demand for the crude oil, as many states mulled going back into a partial lockdown.

Also, prices were supported in the week by a drop in the US crude oil inventories as the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decline of 7.2 million barrels in crude oil inventories in the week to June 26, down from an all-time high level of inventories reached the previous week.

Another pointer that helped the market last week was an estimate in the level of crude production by member states of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

In the week, the cartel recorded the lowest production numbers in 30 years in June as output fell to 22.7 million barrels per day, as Saudi Arabia fulfilled its promise to cut an additional one million barrels per day on top of its quota.

Apart from tightening supply, oil prices were also supported last week by optimistic economic news from the US and China.

In the United States, the economy regained 4.8 million jobs last month as shown in data released on Thursday, while in China, the manufacturing sector conditions continued to improve in June, as its services sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in a decade and business confidence improved to a three-year high.

Looking at this week, analysts note that a rise in the number of COVID-19 infections in the United States and the implementation of new restrictions and lockdowns and expectations of a high inventories forecast at 3 million barrels may depress prices.

As at the time of this report, Brent crude was trading up 1.7 percent at $43.54 per barrel, while the WTI crude was also up 0.74 percent to $40.95 per barrel.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

OPEC Crude Output Falls to 37-Year Low Amid Iran Disruptions

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OPEC output cut

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude production under the collective Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC ) fell in May to its lowest level in at least 37 years as the blockade of Iran by the United States and disruptions in the Persian Gulf, continued to limit output.

According to a Bloomberg survey released on Friday, output from the organisation’s 11 current members, including Nigeria, dropped by 1.22 million barrels per day to 16.33 million barrels per day last month.

Iran accounted for more than half of the decline. The data excludes the United Arab Emirates (UAE), which departed the cartel last month after six decades of membership.

War between a US-Israeli alliance and Iran has reduced oil supplies from the Middle East, largely closing the Strait of Hormuz waterway. Saudi Arabia, Iraq, the UAE and Kuwait have been forced to cut crude production. Iranian shipments face additional pressure following a US blockade of its ports imposed in mid-April.

Iranian output fell by 710,000 barrels per day to a five-year low of 2.34 million barrels per day in May, the survey showed. Central Command reported that US forces have redirected 127 commercial vessels to enforce the blockade of all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports.

Kuwait recorded the second-largest decline last month, with production falling by 310,000 barrels per day to 490,000 barrels per day, less than one-fifth of pre-war levels. Saudi Arabia, the group’s leader, saw output decrease by 240,000 barrels per day to 6.57 million barrels per day.

The production reductions have not prevented OPEC and its allies from raising quotas over recent months, continuing a year-long process of restoring output halted several years ago.

This comes ahead of a meeting scheduled to be held on Sunday, June 7, where a sub-group of seven members is expected to increase targets by 188,000 barrels again in July. The session is one of four online meetings OPEC and its partners plan to hold that day.

Delegates indicated the alliance has plans for two additional monthly quota increases in August and September. UAE output rose by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.44 million barrels per day in May, according to the survey.

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Economy

Debt Repayments: FG Overshoots Budget Allocation by 18%

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The 2025 third quarter Budget Implementation Report from the Budget Office of the Federation has shown that the federal government exceeded the funds allocation for repayment of debts for the first nine months of the fiscal year by about 18 per cent.

In a report by Punch, the sum of N10.74 trillion was budgeted for debt servicing between January and September 2025, but the government used N12.63 trillion for the purpose, N1.90 trillion or 17.65 per cent more than the allocation for the year.

The funds were spent on domestic debts, foreign debts and sinking fund by the central government in nine months.

Business Post reports that for the whole year, the amount approved by the National Assembly and signed by President Bola Tinubu for debt repayments was N14.31 trillion.

Looking at the nine-month figures, domestic debt service gulped N6.23 trillion, exceeding its N5.39 trillion provision, while foreign debt service was N6.30 trillion versus the budget provision of N5.06 trillion.

According to the report, the figures indicated that 67.2 per cent of the federal government’s retained revenue of N18.63 trillion was spent on debt service in the first nine months of 2025. When the sinking fund is included, debt-related payments consumed about 67.8 per cent of revenue.

It was also observed that aggregate federal government revenue underperformed the budget by N12.03 trillion or 39.24 per cent, as actual revenue of N18.63 trillion fell short of the N30.67 trillion projected for the first three quarters.

In the third quarter alone, the government generated N7.70 trillion versus the quarterly target of N10.22 trillion as a result of persistent oil revenue shortfalls, despite stronger non-oil collections.

The debt burden also crowded out capital spending, as total capital expenditure was N3.10 trillion in the first nine months compared with the N17.58 trillion budgeted for the period, indicating that actual debt-related payments were more than four times capital expenditure.

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Economy

Unlisted Stock Investors’ Wealth Shrinks N30bn

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange recorded a loss of 1.13 per cent on Thursday, June 4, shrinking the market capitalisation by N30.03 billion to N2.630 trillion from N2.660 trillion on Wednesday.

Similarly, this brought down the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 50.19 points to 4,396.08 points from the 4,446.27 points recorded a day earlier.

The loss was influenced by the overpowering of the bulls by the bears, after the bourse closed with two price gainers and three price losers, led by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, which slumped by N20.03 to sell at N190.38 per unit compared with midweek’s N210.41 per unit. Food Concepts Plc declined by 25 Kobo to trade at N2.50 per share versus the previous day’s N3.00 per share, and Acorn Petroleum Plc crumbled by 2 Kobo to end at N1.32 per unit, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1.34 per unit.

For the gainers, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc added N2.93 to close at N78.34 per share compared with the previous price of N75.41 per share, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 80 Kobo to settle at N16.80 per unit versus N16.00 per unit.

There was a slip in the volume of transactions yesterday by 46.8 per cent to 280,714 units from 527,221 units, as the value of trades dropped 66.5 per cent to N21.8 million from the preceding session’s N64.2 million, and the number of deals fell by 8.7 per cent to 42 deals from 46 deals.

Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc ended the session as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.7 million units traded for N4.4 billion.

GNI Plc also finished the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.

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