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Tinubu’s Economic Reforms Poorly Timed, Lacked Critical Safeguards—Yemi Kale

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2025 Vanguard Economic Discourse Yemi Kale

By Adedapo Adesanya

Renowned economist, Dr Yemi Kale, says Nigeria must recalibrate its economy through disciplined reforms, forward-looking governance, and people-centred development.

Mr Kale, a former head of Nigeria’s statistics bureau and now Group Chief Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank), gave this advice at the 2025 Vanguard Economic Discourse, where he delivered a keynote address that examined Nigeria’s current economic hardship and offered a compelling and urgent roadmap toward sustainable recovery and shared prosperity.

According to the economist, Nigeria is grappling with both external shocks and internal structural fragilities: from global inflationary pressures to domestic policy missteps.

“Business as usual is no longer an option,” he quipped, warning that slowing growth, commodity volatility, rising protectionism, and geopolitical instability are compounding Nigeria’s vulnerabilities.

“From exchange rate volatility to eroding investor confidence, Nigeria finds itself navigating a storm with limited buffers,” he explained.

He critiqued the removal of fuel subsidies, FX rate unification, tax overhauls, and monetary tightening, leading to surging inflation, currency depreciation, contracting investment, and intensifying socioeconomic hardship, noting that while the reforms instituted by President Bola Tinubu were necessary steps toward a rules-based economy, they were poorly sequenced and lacked critical safeguards.

“Most of Nigeria’s economic hardship is not caused by unforeseen events but by policies introduced without adequate safeguards. Public trust is built not just by making policies—but by implementing them with foresight, fairness, and firmness,” he submitted.

The economist then outlined a clear, actionable framework to transition Nigeria from macroeconomic fragility to resilient, inclusive growth revolving around three pillars: macroeconomic stability, economic diversification, and social investment and inclusive governance.

He noted that restoring confidence begins with fiscal discipline, transparent FX management, and tighter coordination between monetary and fiscal authorities.

“The first pillar is macroeconomic stability. Macroeconomic stability is not an outcome—it is a prerequisite. Nigeria must rebuild investor and citizen confidence by addressing fiscal imbalances, taming inflation, and restoring exchange rate credibility.”

He noted that this can be done via enforcing tax reform, curb leakages, and ensure budget credibility, empowering the central bank with operational independence and clear mandates, tackling inflation through supply-side reforms—particularly in agriculture and logistics, maintaining a transparent, market-reflective exchange rate supported by non-oil exports and reserve buffers, as well as creating a predictable investment climate that encourages long-term capital formation.

“The second pillar is economic diversification. Diversification is no longer optional. Nigeria’s dependence on oil exposes it to external volatility and fiscal instability. We must rapidly expand our productive base,” adding that core focus should be on agriculture, manufacturing, services and digital economy, small businesses, and infrastructure.

“The third and final pillar is social investment and governance. True growth is people-centered. It must deliver meaningful improvements in the lives of Nigerians across all demographics and regions.”

Dr Kale emphasised that key focus areas include the need to expand social safety nets to protect vulnerable populations from systemic shocks, improve access to basic services—housing, healthcare, electricity, water, and strengthen education through curriculum reform, teacher training, and vocational pathways.

He also advocated fostering entrepreneurship and digital inclusion, particularly for youth and women, deepening institutional trust through anti-corruption enforcement and policy continuity, and usage of digital governance to increase transparency, reduce leakages, and improve service delivery.

“Inclusive growth is not just a social ideal—it is a strategic economic necessity,” he said.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Crude Oil Falls as Geopolitical Risk Around Iran Clouds Supply Outlook

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Crude Oil Loan Facility

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude oil settled lower on Thursday as investors tracked developments in talks between the United States and Iran over the latter’s nuclear programme, weighing potential supply concerns if hostilities escalate.

Brent crude futures lost 10 cents or 0.14 per cent to close at $70.75 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures depreciated by 21 cents or 0.32 per cent to $65.21 a barrel.

The US and Iran held indirect talks in Geneva on Thursday over their long-running nuclear dispute to avert a conflict after US President Donald Trump ordered a military build-up in the region.

Prices had gained earlier in the session after media reports indicated the talks had stalled over US insistence on zero enrichment of uranium by Iran, as well as a demand for the delivery of all 60 per cent-enriched uranium to the US.

However, prices then retreated after the two countries extended talks into next week, reducing the immediate strike potential.

Iran’s Foreign Minister, who confirmed talks will continue next week, said Thursday’s talks were the most serious exchanges with the US yet, saying Iran clearly laid out its demand for lifting sanctions and the process for relief.

His counterpart from Oman, who is handling the talks, said significant progress was made in Thursday’s talks. The Omani minister’s upbeat assessment followed indirect talks between Iranian Foreign Minister and US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Geneva, with one session in the morning and the second in the afternoon.

He will also hold talks with US Vice President JD Vance and other US officials in Washington on Friday.

The Trump administration has insisted that Iran’s ballistic missile program and its support for armed groups in the region must be part of the negotiations.

The American President said on February 19 that Iran must make a deal in 10 to 15 days, warning that “really bad things” would otherwise happen.

On Tuesday, he briefly laid out his case for a possible attack on Iran in his State of the Union speech, underlining that while he preferred a diplomatic solution, he would not allow Iran to obtain a nuclear weapon.

Meanwhile, the US continues to amass forces in the Middle Eastern region, with the military saying it is prepared to execute orders given by the US President.

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Economy

Why Transparency Matters in Your Choice of a Financial Broker

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HFM financial broker

Choosing a Forex broker is essentially picking a partner to hold the wallet. In 2026, the market is flooded with flashy ads promising massive leverage and “zero fees,” but most of that is just noise. Real transparency is becoming a rare commodity. It isn’t just a corporate buzzword; it’s the only way a trader can be sure they aren’t playing against a stacked deck. If a broker’s operations are a black box, the trader is flying blind, which is a guaranteed way to blow an account.

The Scam of “Zero Commissions”

The first place transparency falls apart is in the pricing. Many brokers scream about “zero commissions” to get people through the door, but they aren’t running a charity. If they aren’t charging a flat fee, they are almost certainly hiding their profit in bloated spreads or “slippage.” A trader might hit buy at one price and get filled at a significantly worse one without any explanation. This acts as a silent tax on every trade. A transparent broker doesn’t hide the bill; they provide a live, auditable breakdown of costs so the trader can actually calculate their edge.

The Conflict of Market Making

It is vital to know who is on the other side of the screen. Many brokers act as “Market Makers,” which is a polite way of saying they win when the trader loses. This creates a massive conflict of interest. There is little incentive for a broker to provide fast execution if a client’s profit hurts their own bottom line. A broker with nothing to hide is open about using an ECN or STP model, simply passing orders to the big banks and taking a small, visible fee. If a broker refuses to disclose their execution model, they are likely betting against their own clients.

Regulation as a Safety Net

Transparency is worthless without an actual watchdog. A broker that values its reputation leads with its licenses from heavy-hitters like the FCA or ASIC. They don’t bury their regulatory status in the fine print or hide behind “offshore” jurisdictions with zero oversight. More importantly, they provide proof that client funds are kept in segregated accounts. This ensures that if the broker goes bust, the money doesn’t go to their creditors—it stays with the trader. Without this level of openness, capital is essentially unprotected.

The Withdrawal Litmus Test

The ultimate test of a broker’s transparency is how they handle the exit. There are countless horror stories of traders growing an account only to find that “technical errors” or vague “bonus terms” prevent them from withdrawing their money. A legitimate broker has clear, public rules for getting funds out and doesn’t hide behind a wall of unreturned emails. If a platform makes it difficult to see the exit strategy, it’s a sign that the front door should have stayed closed.

Conclusion

In 2026, honesty is the most valuable feature a broker can offer. It is the foundation that allows a trader to focus on the charts instead of worrying if their stops are being hunted. Finding a partner with clear pricing, honest execution, and real regulation is the first trade that has to be won. Flashy marketing is easy to find, but transparency is what actually keeps a trader in the game for the long haul.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Stock Market Indices Shrink 0.41% Amid Panic Sell-Offs

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stock market indices

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited came under panic sell-offs on Thursday, as the investing community awaits the outcome of a probe into trading activities around one of the stocks on the bourse.

On Monday, trading in Zichis equities was prohibited by the regulator after it gained almost 900 per cent in one month of being listed by introduction on the growth board of the exchange.

This action triggered cautious trading on Customs Street, and things have not remained the same since then.

Yesterday, the key performance indices of the Nigerian bourse further depreciated by 0.41 per cent, the third straight loss this week, as investors book profit before being trapped.

It was observed that the energy industry gained 0.12 per cent and was the only one in green, as the industrial goods space shed 1.19 per cent, the banking counter depreciated by 0.63 per cent, the insurance sector lost 0.32 per cent, and the consumer goods segment tumbled by 0.03 per cent.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 802.39 points to 193,567.81 points from 194,370.20 points, and the market capitalisation decreased by N515 billion to N124.239 trillion from N124.754 trillion.

During the session, investors traded 868.5 million shares worth N31.5 billion in 69,310 deals compared with the 1.4 billion shares valued at N46.2 billion exchanged in 70,222 deals at midweek, showing a drop in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 37.96 per cent, 31.82 per cent, and 1.30 per cent, respectively.

Jaiz Bank led the activity chart with 78.9 million equities valued at N1.2 billion, Japaul traded 73.3 million stocks worth N274.8 million, Access Holdings exchanged 66.9 million shares for N1.7 billion, Chams sold 56.9 million equities worth N239.6 million, and Zenith Bank transacted 45.5 million stocks valued at N4.1 billion.

The worst-performing stock for the day was Jaiz Bank after it lost 9.98 per cent to trade at N12.63, Ikeja Hotel declined by 9.90 per cent to N37.75, John Holt shrank by 9.90 per cent to N8.65, Enamelware slipped by 9.88 per cent to N36.50, and Cadbury went down by 9.69 per cent to N61.95.

On the flip side, FTN Cocoa was the best-performing stock after it gained 10.00 per cent to sell for N6.05, RT Briscoe improved by 9.95 per cent to N11.38, Deap Capital soared 9.92 per cent to N6.98, Japaul grew by 9.91 per cent to N3.77, and Ellah Lakes surged 9.72 per cent to N11.85.

Investor sentiment remained bearish as the exchange finished with 30 price gainers and 38 price losers, implying a negative market breadth index.

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