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2019 Presidential Election: Assessing Possibility of Electoral Fraud

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By Omoshola Deji

After about thirty years of stern military rule, Nigeria re-embraced democracy in 1999 and five elections have produced Presidents Olusegun Obasanjo (two terms), Umaru Yar’Adua, Goodluck Jonathan and the incumbent Muhammadu Buhari.

The year 2019 ushers in an opportunity for Nigerians to elect another president or return Buhari. Buhari has promised a free and fair election, but the opposition parties and some observers cast doubts on his commitment to ensuring transparency in an election he is contesting.

This piece examines the allegations and influence of nepotism on the credibility of the electoral process, as well as the effects of underage voting and vote-buying on election results.

Nigerians are criticizing President Buhari’s appointments as nepotistic, especially his choice of the heads of security agencies and the electoral commission. The prevailing argument that this is a clever style of managing the electoral process in his favour steers us into an appraisal of such appointments by the previous governments. Ensuring the successful conduct of elections in Nigeria involves the collaborative effort of several agencies – including the Civil Defense, Army and State Security Service – but Police and INEC are the most crucial. INEC conduct elections and police leads the provision of security. The appraisal thus focuses on these two outfits.

Individuals referenced are classified based on their states of origin and geopolitical zones as currently defined in Nigeria. The zones are abbreviated thus: South-West (SW), South-East (SE), South-South (SS) North-West (NW), North-Central (NC), and the North-East (NE).

Is President Buhari’s appointment of the 2019 election handlers nepotistic? In the first republic (1963-1966), President Nnamdi Azikwe, a native of Anambra State (SE), appointed Louis Edet from Cross River State (SS) as the Inspector General of Police (IGP). Eyo Ita Esua from Cross River State (SS) was appointed the head of the Federal Electoral Commission. You would note that the president and the heads of FEC and police were not from the same geopolitical zone. The military seized power in 1966.

To conduct the election that’ll usher in the second republic in 1979, then General Olusegun Obasanjo from Ogun State (SW) appointed Chief Michael Ani from Cross River State (SS) as Chairman of the Federal Electoral Commission. Muhammadu Dikko Yusufu from Katsina State (NW) was appointed the IGP. The head-of-state and the heads of FEC and police were not from the same geopolitical zone. Obasanjo transferred power to Shehu Shagari, but (Nigeria’s incumbent president) then General Muhammadu Buhari seized power via a military coup in 1983. General Ibrahim Babangida later ousted him in 1985.

After being pressurized by a national campaign for democratic rule, Babangida promised to conduct elections and hand over power in 1993 – the third republic. Babangida, a native of Niger State (NC) appointed Professor Humprey Nwosu, an indigene of Anambra State (SE), as the Chairman of the National Electoral Commission. Aliyu Atta from Adamawa State (NE) was appointed the IGP. Please note that the military-president and the heads of NEC and police were not from the same geopolitical zone.

To conduct the election that brought on the (Obasanjo led 1999-2003) fourth republic, General Abdusalami Abubakar from Niger State (NC) appointed Justice Ephraim Akpata from Edo State (SS) as the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Ibrahim Commassie, an indigene of Katsina State (NW), was appointed the IGP. Again, General Abubakar and the heads of INEC and police were not from the same geopolitical zone.

Ex-President Obasanjo’s second term was the fifth republic (2003-2007). The election that earned him the term was handled by then INEC Chairman Abel Guobadia (Edo, SS) and IGP Mustafa Balogun (Osun, SW). Appointments of the two crucial election handlers were not only allotted to the South, the police IG was from Obansanjo’s geopolitical zone, the SW.

This is not the case now in Buhari’s government. Buhari, a native of Katsina State (NW) appointed Mamood Yakubu (Bauchi, NE) and Idris Kpotun (Niger, NC) as INEC and police heads.

Although Buhari dispensed the appointments to northerners, he and the two appointees are from separate northern geopolitical zones. In essence, Obasanjo’s appointment of INEC and police heads when he was seeking re-election in 2003 is even more sectional than what we have now.

It is appalling that facts about an issue that could diminish Buhari’s votes, especially in the South, stay unutilized. Why is the work of presidential aides being left for independent analysts in an election season? Buhari’s aides are either unmindful of the harm negative public perceptions could do to their principal or they are simply overconfident he would win. But on a second look, why was Obasanjo’s appointment not criticized? Why are people afraid that Buhari’s appointments could breed electoral fraud, but weren’t troubled during Obasanjo’s rule?

The issue is best explained empirically. When Ex-President Goodluck Jonathan increased petrol price from 67 to 87 Naira, people protested because his government was widely rated as corrupt. They didn’t trust him. But when President Buhari increased petrol price from 87 to 145 Naira, the protest was very minimal because Nigerians see him as a non-corrupt person. Trust is the keyword here.

People never protested against Obasanjo’s more sectional appointment of INEC and police heads because they didn’t see him as nepotistic and chauvinistic. His other key appointments (of national security adviser and heads of civil defense, army, the state security service etc.) reflected Nigeria’s ethnic pluralism. That cannot be said of Buhari. He is more sectional than national.

The heads of all the above mentioned agencies are from the North. SSS is currently being led by Mathew Seiyefa (Bayelsa, SS) due to dismissal of Lawal Daura (Katsina, NW) and there are reports of ongoing moves to replace him with a northerner. Nigerians are pessimistic about getting a credible election in 2019 as the influence of these outfits’ activities on election results cannot be undermined. Does nepotism breed electoral fraud? We must resist the appetite to digress. I’ll dissect the issue after concluding the ethnic and geopolitical appraisal of individuals appointed to handle the conduct of past national elections.

The election that ushered in the (late Umaru Yar’Adua led) sixth republic was conducted by the Obasanjo administration. The poll was handled by then INEC Chairman, Professor Maurice Iwu (Imo, SE) and IGP Sunday Ehindero (Ondo, SW). In this case, Obasanjo’s appointment of non-northerners can be argued as ensuring fairness and transparency since the election was mainly a contest between northern candidates – late Umaru Yar’Adua for the PDP, M. Buhari for the defunct ANPP, and Atiku Abubakar for the defunct AC.

Yar’Adua’s death left a vacuum in government. His vice, Goodluck Jonathan (Bayelsa, SS), was sworn in on May 5, 2010 to complete the four-year tenure of the sixth republic (2007-2011). As the term ends, Jonathan turned down the northern oligarchy’s request to takeover. He contested, won and governed Nigeria in the seventh republic (2011-2015). The election that returned him elected was handled by the northerners he appointed. Prof. Attahiru Jega (Kebbi, NW) was the INEC Chairman and Hafiz Ringim (Jigawa, NE) was the IGP. Unlike the Buhari administration, Jonathan was mindful of Nigeria’s ethnic sensitivity and majority of his appointment favoured other ethnic groups, especially the northern lived Hausa-Fulani. He retained Jega as INEC Chairman and appointed Suleiman Abba (Jigawa, NE) as IGP for the 2015 elections.

Jonathan lost the race to rule Nigeria in the eighth republic (2015-2019) to incumbent President Buhari. He conceded defeat. Oppositely, when Jonathan floored Buhari in the 2011 presidential election, the latter’s supporters violently protested, killed and destroyed properties in the north. Would the 2011 post-election violence not have been more devastating if the election handlers and service chiefs were Southerners from Jonathan’s ethnic extraction? Ensuring appointments into sensitive positions are fairly distributed remains one of the most effective means of maintaining public trust, dousing inter-ethnic bigotry and erasing agitation for succession in a plural state like Nigeria. Does nepotism breed electoral fraud? How will nepotism, vote-buying and underage voting affect the outcome of the 2019 presidential election?

In the history of Nigeria, Buhari is the first ruler to appoint an INEC Chairman from his region, the NW. He appointed his supposed relation, Mrs Amina Zakari, as the acting INEC Chairman in June 2015. After several criticisms, Prof Mahmood Yakubu was appointed to replace her as the substantive chairman in October 2015. The relationship between Zakari and Yakubu is so strong that it has the tendency to influence the outcome of the elections in favour of Buhari. The nepotism and sectionalism in Buhari’s government is also present in INEC’s leadership.

Vote buying and underage voting are electoral crimes, but INEC and police have been unable to stem the tide. The two agencies only condemn. They are unwilling to prosecute electoral offenders. The northern region has the highest case of underage voting, while vote-buying has recently gained prominence across the country.

In all fairness, affection for Buhari can’t be argued as the sole reason for underage registration and voting in the north. The north has always had a substantial registration of underage voters before Buhari became president. Nonetheless, his re-election bid has led to an increase in such for political gain. In 2019, (regular and) underage voting would be a huge gain for Buhari in his northern stronghold.

In other regions, Buhari currently have an above-average support in the SW, fast-rising support in the SE, and a below-average support in the SS. Vote buying could easily cover up for his shortfalls in these southern areas. Electoral fraud is bound to occur on a massive scale in the 2019 elections. APC and Buhari would profit more from it than the opposition because they are in control of the nation’s finance and force. With the nepotistic arrangement in place and the forces’ top-down chain of command, all it takes the force heads is to post their loyalists to key states in order to allow the Buharists operate unchecked.

Politics is the switch that controls police operations under IGP Idris Kpotum. Sadly, elections in Nigeria are often marred by so much irregularity that it is quite easy for the umpire and security agencies to manipulate the results. Then again, the force heads have been so political that they have a reason to compromise in order to avoid their imminent sack, if the opposition wins. Buhari is no doubt a strong candidate, but the election is being technically managed in such a way that it would be impossible for him to lose.

INEC and the security agencies operations largely determine the outcome of elections in Nigeria. The heads periodically issue obnoxious orders to their subordinates and questioning or disobeying such orders is treated as an affront, insubordination and disloyalty. The punishment for such is non-promotion, unfavourable transfers, and sometimes death. The boss’ mood dictates the actions of the subordinates, and his wish, whether legal or not, becomes the institution’s mission, especially during elections. Making chauvinistic appointments into agencies operating such a closed system – in a nation where people are more committed to their ethnic groups than to the Nigerian state – is unfortunate for Nigeria’s democracy and a recipe for electoral fraud.

All that concern a presidential election in a plural nation should not be regional. In a polity where the instruments of the state are often used for political gains, a presidential election handled by heads of INEC and security agencies who are northerners, with an incumbent northern candidate running, is beyond doubts programmed not be free, fair, credible or transparent. Such election grievously puts the non-northern candidates in an extremely disadvantaged position. Ethnic affiliation controls emotions in Nigerian elections. Ethnic affection inspired the annulment of the 1993 presidential election won by Moshood Abiola. Babangida wouldn’t have annulled the election if Bashir Tofa (his fellow northerner) won.

Political interests dictate government policies in Nigeria. The Supreme Court ruled that using electronic card readers for voter accreditation is not permissible under the Nigerian electoral laws. The national assembly passed a bill that’ll permit the use of electronic card readers for the 2019 elections, but Buhari declined assent twice. The implication of this is that INEC would have to use the manual means of voter accreditation in 2019 and this would lead to massive electoral fraud.

Buhari must live up to the responsibility of ensuring Nigerians get a free, fair and credible election, and accepting the outcome in good faith if defeated. No matter how hard he tries to be transparent, his nepotistic and chauvinistic conducts, the inability to manage personal interest, autocracy, and hounding the opposition could drive Nigeria’s democracy rearward.

Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via moshdeji@yahoo.com

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Of Mandate Group, Delta Unity Group and Delta 2027

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Delta Unity Group

By Jerome-Mario Utomi

The April 12, 2025, defection of members of the Delta Unity Group (DUG) to the All Progressive Congress (APC) signposts a major political shift in Delta’s politics.

Pundits believe that the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) which presently controls the state needs a miracle to win Delta’s 2027 governorship election given the massive haemorrhage that has hit it. Essentially, the over 10,000 members of the DUG and their supporters who defected to the APC were made up of seasoned grassroots PDP chieftains.

The defectors were received by the National Chairman of the All-Progressive Congress (APC), Mr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje, Governor Monday Okpebholo of Edo State, and the Chairman of the Governing Board of the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC), Mr Chiedu Ebie, alongside other notable political figures in Delta State.

So far, Deltans are enamoured by the significant political shift with many describing the development as a political earthquake which was long overdue. Because of its grassroots orientation, political analysts have likened the DUG to the Mandate Group, an independent political pressure group that midwifed the election of Mr Bola Tinubu, now President, as Lagos State Governor in the late 1990s.

In the run up to the 2023 presidential election, among so many objectives, the group was primed and positioned to defend President Tinubu’s mandate and promote democracy, unity, justice, and liberty in Nigeria, mobilize support for him and Vice President Kashim Shettima’s administration, Promote Unity and Justice: Foster national unity, justice, and liberty for all Nigerians among others.

The Mandate Group which has established structures in all 36 states, with plans to launch state chapters and  currently have 580,000 members in Lagos and aim to reach 40 million members nationwide within the next 12 months, targets  various segments of society, including: Students, Workers, Artisans, Teachers, Fishermen, Farmers and Women.

In like manner, the DUG has emerged as a third force in Delta State politics. Although it is not a new body, it has, over the years, been quietly bestriding Delta’s political landscape for the good of the state. Call it a third force in the politics of Delta State, and you won’t be wrong because, from all ramifications, that is what DUG represents.

DUG is by no means a political party, but, as the name implies, it is a Delta State based political pressure group convened a few years ago by the selfless, foresighted and influential trio of  Mr Olu-Tokunbo (Lulu) Enaboifo, Mr Chiedu Ebie and Sir Itiako (Malik) Ikpokpo.

Their aim and dream were to establish a political pressure group with an agenda to modernize Delta State and also serve as the brain box of the campaign platform of Olorogun David Edevbie, who was vying for the governorship candidate of PDP towards the 2023 gubernatorial election.

Even though the aspiration ended with the Supreme Court ruling in favour of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State, the DUG remained a strong force that started building gradually on the dream of a modernized Delta State. DUG has an organizational structure of 17 National Executive Council members, a Board of Trustees, and Local Government Executives in all the 25 local governments in Delta State, with Ward Executives in all the wards across Delta State, DUG is deeply rooted in the grassroots of Delta State with its cell-like structures.

Prior to the 2023 election, a wing of DUG, at the Obinoba Declaration, crossed over to APC, where the APC governorship candidate, Mr Ovie Omo-Agege, described them as the intelligent wing of PDP.

The group significantly made a huge difference in the 2023 general elections in Delta State. The DUG members in the Delta North Senatorial District, at that point in time, remained with PDP and after full deliberation and strategizing, opted to support the candidature of the APC governorship candidate and all other candidates of APC, even though they had not formally left the PDP. Consequently, most of them were either suspended or cast away by PDP after the elections.

It was easy to blend and work harmoniously with the progressives due to the progressive mindset of DUG members. After the 2023 general elections in Delta State, DUG members of Ika Federal Constituency continued to align and work closely with the APC to strengthen the party and ensure that it is properly positioned to convert the Ika Federal Constituency to an APC constituency come 2027.

To the glory of God, President Tinubu found DUG’s co-founder/convener, Mr Ebie, fit to chair the Governing Board of the NDDC in 2023. This further gave the DUG more vigor to project the Renewed Hope Agenda of the progressive governance of Mr President. Following this appointment, Ika Federal Constituency became the heartbeat of DUG in Delta State, which has now radiated positively to Ndokwa/Ukwuani and Aniocha/Oshimili Federal Constituencies in Delta North.

This wave, which has led to the massive decamping of members of PDP and the Labour Party into DUG in preparation for absorption into the APC, has also witnessed the reactivation of some dormant APC ambers and the massive welcoming of previously non-partisan and newly retired civil servants into the APC, having witnessed the positive impact of the Renewed Hope Agenda of Mr. President.

Because the group was fully poised for the reconfiguration of Delta State in the progressive fold of the APC, it is therefore, not surprising to witness the humongous crowd that emptied into APC on 12th day of April, 2025 in Agbor, Ika Federal Constituency, Delta State.

Going by the above development, it is obvious that come 2027, Ika nation in particular and Deltans in general shall witness the dethronement of People’s Democratic Party, PDP, in the state and enthronement of a people focused leadership to be formed by the All Progressive Congress, APC, in line with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s Renewed Hope Agenda.

Utomi, a media specialist, writes from Lagos, Nigeria. He can be reached via Jeromeutomi@yahoo.com/08032725374

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Piracy in Africa’s Creative Sector: How Creators Can Protect Their Content

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Creators Can Protect Their Content

Africa’s creative industries, from music and film to fashion, writing, and branding, are experiencing remarkable growth. However, as the sector flourishes, so do the threats posed by piracy and copyright infringement. Without proper protection, creators risk losing the value and recognition they deserve for their original work.

Copyright remains the first and most important line of defence. In many African countries, copyright protection begins automatically once a creative work, such as a song, logo, film, or design, is fixed in a tangible form. This protection can last for the creator’s lifetime, and in most cases, up to 70 years after. Yet, while automatic copyright provides a foundation, official registration strengthens legal standing and can be critical in resolving disputes.

When a creator’s work is used without permission, the violation must be addressed swiftly. Experts advise that the first step is to gather evidence—screenshots, URLS, timestamps, user details, and even data showing engagement or financial gain from the misused content. Proof of ownership, such as original files with timestamps, draft versions, or social media records of earlier uploads, is equally vital.

“Creators should always have proof of ownership ready,” says Frikkie Jonker, Director of Anti-Piracy at MultiChoice. “That could be anything from original project files to old emails or posts. It’s one of the most effective tools in enforcing your rights.”

Once evidence is collected, creators can issue takedown requests through social platforms or send formal cease-and-desist letters to website owners or hosts. Although enforcement processes differ by country, most African nations have copyright laws aligned with global standards like the U.S. DMCA. In many cases, showing credible ownership is enough to have infringing content removed.

If infringement continues or is being done at scale, such as by piracy rings or repeat offenders, creators may need to escalate the issue by reporting it to national copyright commissions or law enforcement. Efforts are also being bolstered across the continent through cooperation under agreements like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), with international bodies like Interpol, Afripol, and WIPO supporting cross-border enforcement.

Preventative measures are just as important. Creators are encouraged to use tools like digital watermarking and content fingerprinting to protect their work from unauthorised use online. Furthermore, smart monetisation strategies, such as YouTube’s Content ID syste,m can allow creators to earn revenue even when their content is reused without prior permission.

By understanding their rights, taking proactive steps to protect their creations, and using available technologies, African creatives can safeguard their work while continuing to build sustainable, long-term careers.

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A Journey Through Policy: My Personal Experience

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policymaking

By Saifullahi Attahir

If there was ever anything that gave me goosebumps and immense pleasure, it was being surrounded by intellectuals and mature minds absorbing facts and figures about governance, economics, public health, policymaking, national security, and international relations. In such situations I easily lose myself, forgetting almost all other things.

Even at medical school, my best lectures were those with frequent digressions, whereby the lecturer would discuss the pathogenesis of diseases for 30 minutes and later sidetrack into discussing politics, governance, or other life issues. I always enjoyed classes led by Prof. Sagir Gumel, Dr. Murtala Abubakar, Dr. Rasheed Wemimo, Dr. Aliyu Mai Goro, and co.

During such lectures, I often observed some of my colleagues disappointment for such deviation. I rather casually show indifference, for I was eternally grateful for such discussions due to the stimulatory effect they had on my mind.

After such classes, I sometimes followed up with the lecturer, not to ask about a medical concept I did not grasp, but to ask for further explanation on policy making, project execution, budgetary expenditures, why African countries are left behind, and similar pressing issues.

In situations where I can’t catch up with the lecturer, I jotted down the questions for further deliberation.

One of the manifest feature I know about my greediness was at reading books. I can open five different books in a day. I lack such discipline to finish up one before another. I can start reading ‘Mein Kampf’ by Adolf Hitler, and halfway through 300 pages, I would pick up ‘My Life’ by Sir Ahmadu Bello, and would have to concurrently read both until the end.

I often scolded myself for such an attitude, but I can’t help myself. The only way to practice such discipline was to at least read two different books in a day. Such was a triumph in my practice of self-discipline. This was apart from my conventional medical textbooks.

To some of my friends, I was called an accidental medical doctor, but actually it was a perfect fate guided by the merciful Lord that I’m studying medicine.

 For it was only medicine that makes reading books easier for you. Although time is precious in this profession, but  one finds it easier to do anything you are passionate about. The daily  interaction we have  with people at their most vulnerable state was another psychostimulant. Seeing humans suffering from disease conditions is heartache. Some of the causes are mere ignorance, poverty, superstitions, and limited resources.

The contribution one can give couldn’t be limited to just prescribing drugs or surgical procedures that end up affecting one person. It’s much better to involve one self in to position that may bring possible change to the whole society even in form of orientation.

What also motivated me more was how I wasn’t the first to traverse this similar path. Bibliophiles were common among medical students and medical professionals.

At  international level, the former Prime Minister of Malaysia, Dr. Mahathir Muhammad, was a physician.

Most of the current economic development of Malaysia was attributed to him. The South American revolutionary figure Che Guevara was a physician. Atul Gawande was an endocrinologist, health policy analyst, adviser to former President Obama, campaign volunteer to former President Bill Clinton, and adviser to USAID/WHO on health policies.

Frantz Fanon was another physician, psychiatrist, racial discrimination activist, and political writer. Dr. Zakir Naik was a renowned Islamic scholar, comparative religion expert, and physician.

At the national level, Prof. Usman Yusuf is a haematologist, former NHIS DG, and currently a political activist. Dr. Aminu Abdullahi Taura was a psychiatrist and former SSG to the Jigawa state government. Dr. Nuraddeen Muhammad was a psychiatrist and former cabinet minister to President Goodluck Jonathan.

During ward rounds and clinics, my mind often wanders to enquire not just  about the diagnosis but the actual cause of the disease condition; why would a 17-year-old multiparous young lady develop peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM)? Why would a 5-year-old child develop severe anaemia from a mosquito bite? Why would a 25-year-old friend of mine develop chronic kidney disease, and his family would have to sell all their belongings for his treatment? Why are our Accident and Emergency units filled with road traffic accident cases? Was it bad road conditions or lack of adherence to traffic laws and orders?

Why are African countries still battling with 19th century diseases like Tuberculosis, filariasis, and malarial infections? Why issues of fighting cervical cancer and vaccination campaigns are treated with contempt in our societies? Why access to basic primary healthcare in Nigeria was still a luxury 50 years after Alma Ata declaration?

The questions are never-ending…

Answers to these questions could be found not in the conventional medical textbooks like Robbins/Cotrand, Davidson, or Sabiston. Answers to these questions are there on our faces. Answers to these questions are tied to the very fabric of our social life, our public institutions, our culture, and our life perspectives.

In order to make any significant contribution towards the betterment of this kind of society, it would be quite easier as an insider rather than an outsider. You can’t bring any positive outcome by just talking or commenting. It was rightly stated that a cat in gloves catches no mice.

The real players in a game are always better than the spectators. A player deserves accolades despite his shortcomings, frequent falls, and inability to deliver as planned theoretically. For the player has seen it all, because so many things in public life are not as they appear. It’s only when you are there that the reality becomes visible. This is the reason why many leaders who have goodwill and enjoy public support appear to have lost track or contributed insignificantly when elected or appointed into office.

But despite all these challenges, one can’t decline to do something good just because something bad might happen. The risk is worth it….

Attahir wrote from Federal University Dutse

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