Feature/OPED
2019 Presidential Election: Foretelling the Outcome
By Omoshola Deji
Election is the recruitment of persons with the largest percentage electorates feel are capable of actualizing their imaginings of an ideal nation.
Nigerians elect their leaders every four years and the time is here. Parties have campaigned; candidates have promised; sociocultural groups have endorsed; observers have arrived; and Nigerians are preparing to elect their President and federal lawmakers on February 16. This piece appraises the election winning determinants to foretell the outcome of the presidential poll.
A brief introduction and clarification is essential at this point. The writer, subsequently titled Pundit, is Nigeria’s election result Nostradamus. Foretelling election’s outcome is a reflection of his political analysis prowess, not an endorsement of any party or candidate. The accuracy of his past forecasts has attracted the media and many Nigerians, home and abroad, to look out for his prediction during elections.
Foretelling an election outcome doesn’t mean the pundit has access to one sacred information or the election winning strategy of any candidate. Assessing candidates’ fortes and flaws to foretell the winner is a common practice in developed nations. This doesn’t mean the pundits are demeaning the electoral process or influencing the election results. Nigerians have already decided who they’ll cast their votes for and nothing – not this prediction – can easily change their minds.
The Candidates
The 2019 presidential election is going to be the most keenly contested in the history of Nigeria, not because there are many contestants, but due to the rise in power struggle and the personality of the top candidates. 73 persons are running, but the election is a two horse race between incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP).
Other leading contestants are Omoyele Sowore of the African Action Congress (AAC); Fela Durotoye of the Alliance for New Nigeria (ANN) and Kinsley Moghalu of the Young Progressive Party (YPP).
Sowore, Durotoye and Moghalu are ‘young’ vibrant newcomers, but their political structures are too weak to win a presidential election in a plural nation like Nigeria. Power and greed made coalition efforts that would have made them a formidable third force fail. Teaming up to support a fellow candidate shouldn’t cause disaffection, if their main desire is to rescue Nigeria from the old order.
The similarity in the background of the two main candidates, Atiku and Buhari, renders ethno-religious based predictions impotent. Unlike in 2015, when a Christian southerner contested against a Muslim northerner, the two leading presidential candidates in 2019 are both Northerners, Fulanis, Muslims and septuagenarians. Both candidates are veteran contestants and have crisscrossed parties. This election is Atiku’s fourth attempt. Buhari won on his fourth attempt in 2015 and wants another term.
Buhari’s Performance and Obstacle
Buhari, like every other incumbent, is contesting against two things: his performance and his opponents. His main opponent, Atiku, has far-reaching networks and has been campaigning vigorously. Unlike candidates who are running for the fame, Atiku’s rigorous campaign is a testimonial that he is running to win. He is leaving no stone unturned, knowing this opportunity may not present itself again as he is aging and power is expected to return to the south, if Buhari wins. Atiku has been working on the electorates’ psyche, reconciling with foes, getting endorsements, and turning his major liabilities into assets. His recent visit to the Unites States (US) was a political masterstroke that revived his diminishing electoral value tainted by corruption.
Nigerians are sharply divided on Buhari’s performance. In all sincerity, both the praise singers and condemners of Buhari’s performance are right. The praise singers are rating Buhari based on the achievements of his predecessors, many of whom score low on the provision of basic amenities, security and socioeconomic development. Buhari has performed satisfactorily when compared with his predecessors. He is reviving the railway, constructing the Second Niger Bridge, building a number of roads, and combating Boko Haram. Buhari has also paid the defunct Nigerian Airways’ pensioners and introduced social incentives such as school feeding, N-Power and Tradermoni, which the opposition has criticized as vote-buying.
The presidential election is partly a referendum on Buhari’s performance. He would earn the votes of people who think he has performed, while those who think otherwise and mindful that the second term of governments are often not better than their first would vote other candidates.
The condemners of Buhari’s performance are rating him based on his inability to fulfil some of his 2015 campaign promises. They are berating him for performing below expectations after raising hopes of Nigerians. Buhari promised restructuring, but backtracked. His appointments were lopsided northwards. Insecurity is rife as bandits, insurgents and herdsmen are carrying out genocidal bloodletting at will. The fight against corruption has been incredibly selective, making Transparency International rank Nigeria the 144 least corrupt nation out of 175. Buhari has serially flouted court orders; persecuted activists and journalists; tolerated the massacre of unarmed IPOB and Shiite members; harassed the legislature and judiciary; ruled in a dictatorial manner; and hounded critics. Basic amenities are either dysfunctional or unavailable, the exchange rate is high, consumables are costly and unemployment is at an alarming rate. Buhari’s performance is unsatisfactory if he’s assessed by the oversweet promises he doled out in 2015. His misrule and incompetence is winning hearts for Atiku.
Atiku’s Challenge
Buhari has reiterated his resolve to further tackle corruption, insecurity and revive the economy, while Atiku boast of capacity to provide jobs, eradicate poverty and resuscitate the economy. One major minus for Atiku is the comment of his former boss, ex-President Olusegun Obabsanjo when their relationship was not cordial. In his book titled My Watch, Obasanjo said “what I did not know, which came out glaringly later, was his parental background which was somewhat shadowy, his propensity to corruption, his tendency to disloyalty, his inability to say and stick to the truth all the time, a propensity for poor judgment, his belief and reliance on marabouts , his lack of transparency, his trust in money to buy his way out on all issues and his readiness to sacrifice morality, integrity, propriety truth and national interest for self and selfish interest”.
Though Obasanjo has reconciled and endorsed Atiku, many Nigerians are still using the statements in ‘My Watch’ to discredit Atiku.
Endorsement Effects
Endorsement still influences voters, even though political parties belittle its effect when they are unable to secure it. People living in the rural areas and traditional societies where the recommendations of leaders are highly revered largely vote based on endorsements. Candidates also use endorsements to convince dissenting voices and undecided voters. Atiku has gotten influential endorsements than Buhari. Leaders and elders of notable regional sociocultural groups, including the Middle Belt Forum (North-Central), Ohanaeze Ndigbo (South-East), PAN Niger Delta Forum (South-South); and the prominent faction of Afenifere (South-West) have all endorsed Atiku. The most shocking endorsement Atiku got was that of the Northern Elders Forum, which has a significant influence on the conservative Muslim Northerners who are largely supporters of Buhari. The Arewa Consultative Forum however gave a counter endorsement in favour of Buhari.
Ruling parties are always the most favoured on endorsements. The opposition PDP’s numerous endorsement is a pointer that the regional leaders distrust APC, or the party simply choose to connect the people directly through the distribution of business aid such as Tradermoni. The latter may not earn Buhari votes. The beneficiaries of Tradermoni are largely sympathizers of their various sociocultural groups which have endorsed Atiku. An Igbo trader who’s aware that Ohaneze Ndigbo endorsed Atiku to end the marginalization of his ethnic group under Buhari would most likely vote Atiku, despite receiving Tradermoni. Sociocultural groups have a way of awakening the ethnic sentiments that’ll make people vote their endorsed candidates. The culture is gradually changing as people are increasingly voting based on personal convictions.
The Generals Influence
When getting less, the APC discredit endorsements, but applaud same when persons or groups back Buhari. 71 retired Military Generals endorsed Buhari for second term. This is a coming against some of the prominent Generals and former Heads of State’s opposition to Buhari’s re-election. Generals Olusegun Obasanjo, Ibrahim Babangida and Theophilus Danjuma are against Buhari, General Yakubu Gowon has been apolitical, while General Abdulsalami Abubakar is the head of the National Peace Committee. Buhari’s rejection by his powerful and influential contemporaries may hinder his win as the Generals, especially Obasanjo, have always determined who becomes President.
The Generals have vast political structures as they were the ones who nurtured almost all the leading political actors in Nigeria presently. Obasanjo is one of the ruling APC’s major nightmares as he is determined to end Buhari’s reign and install PDP’s Atiku. His choice candidates have always emerged, including Buhari in 2015. Obasanjo is well-respected by the international community. His global weight and networks can ruin Buhari, if he’s declared winner based on electoral fraud and post-election conflict arises. Obasanjo is doing his best to ensure Buhari doesn’t win as such will diminished his relevance and retire him from politics.
The Aso Rock Cabal
Aisha Buhari’s statement that her husband’s government had been hijacked by a cabal would make Buhari lose votes. Aisha disclosed at the National Women Leadership Summit that two powerful individuals have been commandeering her husband and preventing him from performing. Buhari denied the allegation, but many Nigerians believe his wife’s statement is a revelation of the goings-on in Aso Rock. The President’s failure to regain public confidence by rejigging his cabinet would make many people vote against him to end the cabal’s reign.
Health Factor
Buhari’s deteriorating health and failing memory would also diminish his votes. Many Nigerians believe Buhari would spend most of his tenure receiving treatment abroad, if he wins. His inability to remember basic things and serial gaffes such as forgetting the year he was sworn-in, referring to the APC gubernatorial candidate in Delta State as senatorial and presidential candidate, as well as lifting the hand of the wrong candidate in Cross River State makes many Nigerians see him has mentally unfit to continue ruling.
Atiku has shown more mental alertness, but his pledge to enrich friends is making him lose public trust. Nigerians may decide to return a sick, dictatorial and incompetent Buhari to power because of Atiku’s corruption tendencies and embracement of crony capitalism – enriching friends through privatization.
Elites Gang-up
The APC intraparty crisis across states and the exit of influential persons from the party may deny Buhari a win. APC was formidable in 2015 than it is now. The party immensely profited from the mass exit of political heavyweights from the then ruling PDP. This largely helped President Buhari defeat then President Jonathan. Most of the heavyweights are back in the PDP and are determined to unseat Buhari. Some of them includes the PDP presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar; Senate President Bukola Saraki; Governors Samuel Ortom and Aminu Tambuwal of Benue and Sokoto States; House of Representative Speaker, Yakubu Dogara; and ex-Governor Rabiu Kwankwaso of Kano State. The exit of these bigwigs from the APC would certainly not make victory easy for Buhari. The ruling APC tried to make up for this by winning over ex-Governors Godswill Akpabio and Emmanuel Uduaghan of Akwa-Ibom and Delta States. These former governors cannot garner many votes for Buhari. Their influence is limited to their states which are PDP strongholds and majority of the people in the Niger-Delta region are anti Buhari.
The array of political elites that Buhari have been persecuting and prosecuting would also unleash their arsenal to ensure he never gets re-elected. Those affected by Buhari’s unfavourable economic policies and others not profiting from his government would likewise do all possible to make him lose.
The International Community
Atiku’s entry into the US and the foreign condemnation of Buhari’s anti-democratic actions are crucial pointers that the international community would prefer an Atiku Presidency. Buhari’s imperfection must not make one take the international community’s preference as best for the country. Buhari is not getting their support, not because of his underperformance, but because he has resisted dependency and neocolonialism; hindering them from exploiting the nation. The western nations are only friends with governments that allow them have their way and they are renowned for going the extra mile to remove uncontrollable leaders. Kwame Nkruma, Patrice Lumumba and Julius Nyerere are credible lessons. Buhari’s shortcoming is creating an avenue for the West to have their way through Atiku. The PDP campaign to ‘get Nigeria working again’ is coming at a time when the majority is complaining that virtually nothing is working.
INEC and Security
An excellent professional conduct should not be expected from the security agencies and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). The secret midnight meetings allegedly being held by the INEC leadership and Buhari’s henchmen may lead to intentional misconduct by the electoral umpire. The security chiefs would try to appear neutral, but their partisanship would manifest if the election is a tight race and Buhari needs some misconduct to pave way for a rerun or make him win. The heads of the security agencies, especially the police commissioners in many states would most likely turn a blind eye on wrongs done to aid Buhari’s win.
Voting
There are 84,004,084 registered voters in Nigeria. By population ranking, the number of registered voters and persons who have collected their permanent voters card (PVC) across the six geopolitical zones are as follows:
North West: 20,158,100 registered voters, 18,882,854 PVCs collected.
South West: 16,292,212 registered voters, 12,444,594 PVCs collected.
North Central: 13,366,070 registered voters, 11,849,027 PVCs collected.
South South: 12,841,279 registered voters, 11,574,944 PVCs collected.
North East: 11,289,293 registered voters, 10,402,734 PVCs collected.
South East: 10,057,130 registered voters, 9,071,939 PVCs collected.
The above data shows that out of the 84,004,084 persons who registered to vote, only 74,199,092 can vote having collected their PVCs. 9,804,992 are yet to collect theirs. APC’s Buhari comes from the Northwest, while PDP’s Atiku is from the North-East. Both candidates would garner huge votes in each other’s zone, but Buhari would come top. This is largely due to the cult followership Buhari enjoys in the North. Majority of the northern voting population supports Buhari blindly; they believe PDP’s 16 years of misrule is responsible for Buhari’s failings.
Another plus for Buhari is that his party, the APC, controls the largely populated states – Lagos and Kano. Out of the 36 states of the federation, APC is the incumbent government in 23 states, while PDP is the incumbent government in 13. APC is also the incumbent government in majority of the Northern states and the entire 6 states in the Southwest. Atiku would likely defeat Buhari in the North-Central. He would defeat Buhari in the South-South and South-East. Atiku would earn substantial votes in the Southwest, but Buhari would earn more.
Vote Buying
Agents of the two prominent candidates will induce voters with money. People thinking Buhari’s anti-corruption stance would make his team desist from inducing voters would be disappointed. As it is before now, the party stalwarts would utter untruths that the money being shared is not from the Presidency, but from supporters who are passionate about the continuity of Buhari’s government. There would be several I-love-you-more-than-God behaviours during the election. People will voluntarily commit electoral fraud, threaten supporters of rival parties, cause mayhem, and kill to ensure their favourite candidate wins.
The APC and PDP supporters boasting their candidates would win by landslide are just being over emotional. Both candidates have major flaws that can’t make that happen. Atiku is widely considered corrupt, while Buhari is broadly seen as nepotistic and unfit. These negatives limit their chances of winning by landslide. Such win is often earned by candidates with minor flaws.
The Pundit’s Verdict
Buhari’s shortcomings will affect, but can’t hinder his win. The three main determinants of electoral victory in Nigeria are the votes cast, the conducts of the electoral umpire (INEC), and the security agencies, especially the police. Buhari apparently has INEC and the security agencies on his side and would get many votes as a popular candidate, but may need a push. His henchmen will not hesitate to do anything, licit or illicit, to retain power when the chips are down.
Notables like Dele Momodu and prominent institutions such as Williams and Associates, and the Economist Intelligence Unit predicting Buhari would lose did not consider something crucial – recent happenings and Buhari’s arbitrariness. Up to the minute actions of Buhari are pointers that his government would stop at nothing to retain power. The intimidation of voters and staggering electoral fraud that was allegedly perpetrated during the Osun governorship and rerun elections; the reported secret meeting with INEC heads; the alleged political removal of Chief Justice Walter Onnoghen; the untoward display of force by the military across states; and the politically motivated transfer of police commissioners and other top officers are not for nothing. An incumbent government that is obsessed with power cannot put all these strategies in place in an undeveloped democracy and lose.
Nigerians are worried that a partial conduct by INEC and the security agencies may lead to a rerun, the Venezuela situation or foist the Odinga-Kenyetta model on Nigeria. Except God touches the mind of those occupying Aso Rock, relinquishing power to the opposition doesn’t look like what the ruling cabal is willing to do, except Atiku wins by a landslide, which is almost impossible. Against the predictions of Williams and Associates and the Economist, the Pundit foretells that the APC candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, would be declared President-elect.
Omoshola Deji is a political and public affairs analyst. He wrote in via [email protected]
Not too long ago, streaming in Nigeria was seen as a convenience, an alternative to traditional television, used mostly to catch up on missed shows or explore international content. Today, it has evolved into something far more ingrained. Streaming is now a culture: a daily habit that shapes conversations, influences pop culture, drives fandoms and even dictates how stories are told.
From late-night binge sessions and group watch parties to live-tweeting reality shows and football matches, streaming has become woven into how Nigerians experience entertainment. As mobile devices, smart TVs and affordable data options continue to expand access, the platform has moved from the fringes to the centre of everyday life. In 2026, this cultural shift will become even more pronounced.
Here’s what to expect as streaming continues to evolve in Nigeria and across Africa.
Value Will Define Loyalty in an Overcrowded Streaming Market: As streaming becomes mainstream, Nigerian audiences are becoming more discerning. Subscription fatigue is real, and users are no longer impressed by platforms with limited libraries or infrequent updates.
In 2026, loyalty will belong to platforms that offer sustained value, not just headline titles. This means:
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Deep content libraries that go beyond a handful of popular shows
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A healthy mix of live TV, sports and on-demand entertainment
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Regular content refreshes that keep audiences engaged month after month
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Viewers now understand value, and they will gravitate towards platforms that consistently deliver variety and relevance.
Local Stories Will Drive Cultural Relevance: Streaming has amplified the power of Nigerian storytelling, giving local productions the scale and visibility once reserved for traditional TV. Viewers are showing a clear preference for stories that feel familiar, authentic and culturally grounded.
In Nigeria, titles like Omera, Glass House, Italo, The Real Housewives of Lagos, Nigerian Idol and Big Brother Naija have become shared cultural moments, driving online conversations and real-world buzz. These shows are not just being watched; they are being experienced.
Across the continent, similar patterns are emerging, reinforcing the role of hyperlocal content in building loyalty and identity. In 2026, investment in African creators will remain central to streaming growth.
Streaming Becomes Personal and Predictive: As streaming matures, platforms will increasingly rely on AI to understand viewers on a deeper level. In 2026, Nigerian users can expect:
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More intuitive recommendations tailored to individual tastes
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Smarter content discovery that reduces the time spent searching
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Interactive experiences that respond to viewer behaviour
Beyond content, AI will also enhance advertising relevance and customer support, creating a smoother, more personalised user journey.
Live Sports Will Continue to Anchor Streaming Culture: While binge-worthy series drive daily engagement, live sports remain one of streaming’s biggest cultural anchors. Football, in particular, continues to command passionate followership in Nigeria.
With the 2026 FIFA World Cup scheduled for June–July, live streaming will dominate viewing behaviour once domestic leagues conclude. Nigerian football fans demand quality, reliability and immediacy, making official platforms with full broadcast rights, such as SuperSport, essential destinations during major tournaments.
In 2026, sports will further reinforce the value of legitimate, high-quality streaming experiences.
Security Becomes Non-Negotiable: As streaming cements its cultural relevance, content protection will take on greater importance. Premium sports and entertainment remain prime targets for piracy, but the response is becoming more sophisticated.
Technologies from cybersecurity firms like Irdeto now enable real-time monitoring, rapid takedowns and legal action against illicit streaming networks. These measures protect not just platforms, but creators and the broader creative ecosystem, a critical consideration as local production continues to grow.
Innovation Makes Streaming More Inclusive: One of the most significant shifts in Nigeria’s streaming landscape is how inclusive it has become. Platforms are innovating around:
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Flexible pricing
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Bundled services that combine TV and streaming
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Multi-device access, including mobile-first options
Whether premium or entry-level, users can now find options that suit their lifestyle and budget, reinforcing streaming’s position as an everyday entertainment staple.
A More Conscious Streaming Audience Emerges: As streaming culture matures, so does audience awareness. Nigerian viewers are increasingly able to identify illegal streaming platforms and understand the long-term damage piracy causes to the industry.
In 2026, conscious viewing will continue to gain ground, with users learning to avoid red flags such as “free” premium streams, unofficial apps, VPN-only access and excessive pop-up advertising.
Streaming is no longer simply about watching content, it is about belonging to moments, communities and conversations. In Nigeria, it has evolved into a cultural force that shapes how stories are told, shared and celebrated.
As 2026 unfolds, streaming will continue to thrive at the intersection of technology, culture and creativity, offering entertainment that is accessible, relevant and deeply local.
By Anne Mureithi
Provision of banking services in Africa continues to undergo profound digital transformation where most transactions are conducted virtually via digital devices and cash moved electronically. Mobile banking, fintech innovation, and cross-border digital payments have reshaped how individuals and businesses consume financial services.
In Nigeria and across the continent face, banks face sharp scrutiny from expanding regulatory landscape, including Anti-Money Laundering (AML), combating the financing of terrorism (CFT) and combating the financing of proliferation (CPF) that involves disrupting funds for weapons of mass destruction (WMD) through targeted financial sanctions.
With increased cross border trade, everyone including governments look upon banks to provide Know Your Customer (KYC) services, fraud risk management, and increasingly adhere to stringent data protection and privacy regulations as well as Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) reporting standards.
Compliance is no longer a back-office obligation, and this calls for increased investments in technology, particularly Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) to enable banks to meet compliance requirements.
This is important as local traders want a banking partner who offers one-stop shop services on compliance matters. For banks, this is a competitive advantage, a core capability, and a source of differentiation. By embedding compliance into product and process design, banks can meet regulatory obligations efficiently while fostering innovation through a compliance-by-design approach.
In March 2025, the Central Bank of Kenya published the results of a survey on AI adoption in the banking sector, revealing moderate uptake, with 50% of respondents indicating some level of implementation. The survey found that among institutions that had adopted AI and machine learning, the leading applications were credit risk assessment (65%), cybersecurity (54%) and customer service (43%), followed by e-KYC (41%) and fraud risk management (40%).
These findings underscore significant untapped potential for AI to transform customer experience and strengthen risk management, particularly in AML and compliance monitoring. As intra-Africa trade continues to increase, compliance teams within banks must play a leading role in establishing strong governance, ensuring transparency, and preparing institutions for emerging regulatory expectations.
The Central Bank of Kenya has confirmed that it is in the final stages of developing a Guidance Note on Artificial Intelligence, with 95% of surveyed institutions having requested formal regulatory direction. The anticipated principles-based framework will focus on governance, risk management, transparency, and the ethical use of AI, laying the foundation for responsible innovation in the financial sector.
AI and ML models offer practical solutions to compliance challenges by learning and tracking typical behavioural patterns by customer, product, and corridor, flagging anomalies such as unusual counterparties, transaction values, or routing patterns in cross-border flows. These tools can also generate more accurate and complete assessments of ongoing customer due diligence and customer risk, which can be updated to account for new and emerging threats in real time.
By detecting potential violations of normal customer profiles in data or groups of customers with higher-risk characteristics, AI has streamlined priorities towards high-risk cases and reduced the time spent on false positives. This capability is increasingly critical as transaction volumes and complexity grow. Such technological advances transform compliance from a costly obligation into a strategic advantage.
Customers do not need to know one another to execute a transaction since AI-powered identity authenticates customer identity through document scanning, biometric verification and mobile-based identity solutions. These solutions have also enabled banks to onboard new customers remotely without the need to visit a physical bank to fill in registration details.
Accounts are fully secure and only users who pass the mobile-based identity verification are allowed access thereby preventing fraud. This also supports financial inclusion by enabling access to financial services for individuals who struggle to provide adequate identification documents for opening bank accounts.
In addition, Regulatory Technology (RegTech) solutions enable financial institutions to monitor regulatory developments, map obligations across their operations, conduct initial gap assessments, ensure that policies and procedures are always up to date and streamline regulatory reporting.
This capability is particularly valuable for pan-African institutions in ensuring agility while responding to regulatory changes across multiple jurisdictions. With its presence in 34 African countries, Ecobank advocates for harmonised payment systems and regulatory frameworks as a catalyst for accelerating intra-African trade.
Regional regulatory alignment further amplifies these gains. As African regulators work towards greater harmonisation of standards, banks with pan-African footprints are uniquely positioned to bridge local realities with global expectations, enabling smoother cross-border transactions and reducing friction for businesses operating across multiple markets.
The convergence of digital innovation and regulation presents an opportunity to support regional integration and strengthen public confidence. Banks that integrate compliance into their digital strategies, invest in ethical AI, enforce strong governance, and actively engage regulators will be best positioned to compete, facilitate trade, and protect financial integrity.
On an Africa-wide platform, traders from Nigeria want a synchronised platform that provides them with end-to-end solutions. Say Ecobank Group’s AML monitoring and sanctions screening capabilities within its SWIFT payment infrastructure ensure that all cross-border payment messages undergo real-time compliance checks prior to fund settlement.
With increased intra-Africa trade that rides on online platforms, accelerated digitalisation of cross-border transactions, timely, efficient, and secure payment processing is paramount. Real-time compliance monitoring is a non-negotiable cornerstone of safeguarding the integrity of international payment flows.
Ultimately, the future of banking in Africa will be defined by how institutions harness technology to meet regulatory obligations, deter financial crime, and foster trust among businesses, consumers, and public institutions alike. Compliance is no longer a constraint on growth; it is a foundation for sustainable innovation, regional integration, and long-term confidence in Africa’s financial system.
Ms Mureithi is a director in charge of compliance at Ecobank, Central, Eastern and Southern Africa (CESA)
By Blaise Udunze
Nigeria’s economy will be experiencing yet another round of reform; after the new tax implementation, the banking sector recapitalisation exercise will begin within less than three months until the March 31, 2026, deadline. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) Governor, Olayemi Cardoso, disclosed that 27 banks have tapped the capital market via public offers and rights issues.
The figures show that of 21 the 37 commercial, merchant, and non-interest banks in the country have met or exceeded the revised minimum capital thresholds of N500 billion for internationally authorised banks, N200 billion for national banks, N50 billion for regional banks, and N10-20 billion for non-interest banks. With the developments above, policymakers are betting that stronger balance sheets will help banks withstand macroeconomic shocks, finance growth, and restore confidence in the financial system. On the surface, the logic is sound, capital matters. But history warns us that capital alone is not a cure-all.
Nigeria has been here before, going by the 2004-2005 era of the then-governor of CBN, Charles Soludo, whose banking consolidation dramatically reduced the number of banks from 89 to 25 and created national champions. Yet barely five years later, the system was back in crisis, requiring regulatory intervention, bailouts, and the creation of the Asset Management Corporation of Nigeria (AMCON) to absorb toxic assets. The lesson here is clear, which revealed that recapitalisation that ignores structural weaknesses merely postpones failure.
If the current exercise is to succeed, the CBN must use it not only to raise capital but to repair the deeper fault lines that have long undermined the stability, credibility, and effectiveness of Nigeria’s banking sector.
More Capital isn’t Always Better Capital
The first and most critical issue is the quality of capital being raised. Disclosures made by the banks have shown that the combined capital base of about N5.142 trillion is already locked in by lenders across the different licence categories. Bigger numbers on paper mean little if the capital is not genuinely loss-absorbing. In past recapitalisation cycles, concerns emerged about funds being raised through related parties, short-term borrowings disguised as equity, or complex arrangements that ultimately recycled the same risks back into the system.
This time, the CBN must insist on transparent, verifiable sources of capital. Every naira raised should be traceable, free from conflicts of interest, and capable of absorbing real losses in a downturn. Otherwise, recapitalisation becomes an accounting exercise rather than a resilience-building one.
Why Corporate Governance Remains the Achilles’ Heel
Perhaps the most persistent weakness in Nigeria’s banking sector is corporate governance failure. Many bank crises have not been caused by macroeconomic shocks alone, but by poor board oversight, insider abuse, weak risk culture, and excessive executive power.
Recapitalisation provides a rare regulatory leverage point. The CBN should use it to reset governance standards, not just capital thresholds. Boards must be independent in substance, not just in form. Being one of the critical aspects of the banking challenge, insider lending rules should be enforced without exception. Risk committees in every financial institution must be empowered, not sidelined by dominant executives.
Without the apex bank fixing governance, new capital risks become fresh fuel for old excesses.
The Unresolved Burden of Non-Performing Loans (NPLs)
Data from the CBN’s latest macroeconomic outlook showed that the banking industry’s Non-Performing Loans ratio climbed to an estimated 7 percent, pushing the sector above the prudential ceiling of 5 percent. Nigeria’s banking sector continues to be drowned with high volumes and recurring non-performing loans (NPLs), and this is often concentrated in sectors such as oil and gas, power, and government-linked projects. Though with the trend of events, one may say that regulatory forbearance has helped maintain surface stability in the sector, no doubt it has also masked underlying vulnerabilities.
The truth is that a credible recapitalisation exercise must confront this reality head-on. Loan classification and provisioning standards should reflect economic truth, not regulatory convenience. Banks should not be allowed to carry impaired assets indefinitely while presenting healthy balance sheets to investors and the public.
Transparency around asset quality is not a threat to stability; it is a foundation for it.
How Foreign Exchange Risk Quietly Amplifies Financial Shocks
Few risks have damaged bank balance sheets in recent years as severely as foreign exchange volatility. Many banks continue to carry significant FX mismatches, borrowing short-term in foreign currency while lending long-term to clients with naira revenues.
During periods of FX adjustment, these mismatches can rapidly erode capital, no matter how well-capitalised a bank appears on paper. Recapitalisation must therefore be accompanied by tighter supervision of FX exposure, stronger disclosure requirements, and realistic stress testing that assumes adverse currency scenarios, not best-case outcomes.
Ignoring FX risk is no longer an option in a structurally import-dependent economy.
Concentration Risk and the Narrow Credit Base
Another long-standing weakness is excessive concentration risk. A disproportionate share of bank lending is often tied to a small number of large corporates or government-related exposures. While this may appear safe in the short term, it creates systemic vulnerability when those sectors face stress.
At the same time, the real economy, particularly SMEs and productive sectors, remains underfinanced because, over the years, Nigeria’s banks faced significant concentration risk, particularly in the oil and gas sector and in foreign currency exposure, while grappling with a narrow credit base characterised by limited lending to the private sector. This is due to high credit risk and tight monetary policy. Owing to this trend, recapitalisation should therefore be in alignment with policies that encourage credit diversification, improved credit underwriting, and smarter risk-sharing mechanisms, and not the other way round.
Therefore, it will be right to say that banks that grow larger but remain narrowly exposed do not strengthen the economy; they amplify its fragilities.
Risk Management in a Volatile Economy
The recurring inflation shocks, interest-rate swings, fiscal pressures, and external shocks are frequent features, not rare events, which show that Nigeria is not a low-volatility environment.
Currently, the Nigerian banking sector’s financial performance and investment returns are equally affected by various risks, including credit, liquidity, market, and operational risks.
Today, many banks still operate risk models that assume stability rather than disruption. Time has proven that risk management is essential for mitigating these risks and ensuring stability and profitability.
The apex bank must ensure that the recapitalisation process mandates robust, Nigeria-specific stress testing, and banks must demonstrate resilience under severe but plausible scenarios. This includes sharp currency depreciation, interest-rate spikes and sovereign stress. It must evolve from a compliance function to a strategic discipline.
Transparency and Financial Reporting
Investors, depositors, and analysts must be able to understand banks’ true financial positions without navigating a lack of transparent disclosures or creative accounting. Hence, public trust in the banking sector depends heavily on credible financial reporting.
The CBN should use recapitalisation to strengthen the International Financial Reporting Standard enforcement, disclosure standards, and audit quality. In championing this course, banks’ financial statements should clearly reflect capital adequacy, asset quality, related-party transactions, and off-balance-sheet exposures. Transparency is to enable confidence, not about exposing weakness.
Regulatory Consistency and Credibility
Policy credibility has been one of the greatest challenges for Nigeria’s financial regulators.
Abrupt changes, unclear timelines, and inconsistent enforcement undermine investor confidence and weaken reform outcomes.
Recapitalisation must be governed by clear rules, predictable timelines, and consistent enforcement. Both domestic and foreign investors need assurance that the rules of the game will not change midstream. Regulatory credibility is itself a form of capital.
Consumer Protection and Banking Ethics
While recapitalisation focuses on banks’ balance sheets, the public experiences banking through fees, service quality, dispute resolution, and ethical conduct. Persistent complaints about hidden charges and poor customer treatment erode trust in the system and a stronger banking sector must also be a fairer and more accountable one. It must be noted that strengthening consumer protection frameworks alongside recapitalisation will help rebuild public confidence and reinforce financial inclusion goals.
Too Big to Fail and How to Resolve Failure
Looking at what is obtainable in the system, larger, better-capitalised banks can also become systemically dangerous if failure resolution frameworks are weak. This requires that recapitalisation should therefore be accompanied by credible plans for resolving distressed banks without destabilising the entire system or resorting to taxpayer-funded bailouts, which has been the norm in the Nigerian banking sector today. The cynic might say that recapitalisation simply made big banks bigger and empowered dominant shareholders. However, a more prospective approach invites all stakeholders, including regulators, customers, civil society and bankers themselves, to co-design the next chapter of Nigerian banking; one that balances scale with inclusion, profitability with impact, and stability with innovation.
Clear resolution mechanisms reduce moral hazard and reinforce market discipline.
A Moment That Must Not Be Wasted
Recapitalisation is not merely a financial exercise; it is a governance and trust reset opportunity. If the CBN focuses solely on capital numbers, Nigeria risks repeating a familiar cycle of apparent stability followed by crisis.
The banking sector can lay a solid foundation that truly supports economic transformation if recapitalization is used to address governance failures, asset quality, FX risk, transparency, and regulatory credibility.
Nigeria does not just need bigger banks. It needs better banks, institutions that are resilient, transparent, well-governed, and trusted by the public they serve. Hence, it must be a system that creates a more robust buffer against shocks and positions Nigerian banking as a global competitor capable of funding a $1 trillion economy, as the case may be.
This recapitalisation moment must be about building durability, not just size. The cost of missing that opportunity would be far greater than the cost of getting it right.
Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos and can be reached via: [email protected]
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