Feature/OPED
2023 Handover Date and Tasks Before Okowa
By Jerome-Mario Chijioke Utomi
Recently, this author has seen people (Deltans and non Deltans alike) argue that the success of the administration of the Governor of Delta State, Mr Ifeanyi Okowa, particularly in the infrastructural development and promotion of technical education in the state dwarfed that of his predecessors.
These efforts on the part of the Governor contributed appreciably to why Delta State was ranked the Best State in Human Capital Development in the 2017 States Peer Review by the National Competitiveness Council of Nigeria, and also in 2020.
It is also responsible for why Delta as a state was adjudged to be the Second Least Poor State, coming only after Lagos, Nigeria’s business hub, according to the Nigerian Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
Despite the validity of the above declarations, I have also within this span, observed critics argue but scantly that Delta is a small state, oil-producing, and, therefore, can achieve its goals and record developments easily. That the success so far recorded in the state has nothing to do with creative leadership but a function of the availability of natural resources in the state.
Like the first group mentioned above, I have in a recent post among other things noted that the ongoing development in Delta State tellingly justifies the popular belief that creative concepts of leaders can bring both disruptive and constructive aspects; laced with the capacity to shatter set patterns of thinking, can threaten the status quo, or at the very least stir up people’s anxieties.
While noting that Okowa has in the past six years demonstrated that strategic success cannot be reduced to a formula, nor can one become a strategic thinker by reading a book, but through constant demonstration of competence, connection and character, the piece submitted that if one had visited the coastal areas of Delta State before May 29, 2015, till date, he/she may have concluded that the area was a location that has apparently never heard of civilization.
But under Governor Okowa’s administration, the people are coming to understand that education and infrastructural development of an area are the best tools for shaping the future of the people and not devices for an exclusive privileged few.
Among all the reactions/comments received, a particular one from a supposedly coastal dweller seems to stand out as it was a positive reaction with a sprinkle of agenda-setting.
Essentially, it read in part; Okowa has deflected the age-long excuse by previous administrations that the coastal region cannot be developed because the terrain is a marshy-a feature that renders construction difficult if not impossible, can no longer be sustained, this particular reader/respondent in line appreciated the Governor for the level of good/internal road networks and other infrastructural development- a feat that he said qualifies the Governor as the first to give a sense of belonging to the people of the region.
He, however, concluded that for the Governor to finish strong, he should construct road networks that will link Warri to Escravos terminals in Warri South-West Local Council Area of Delta and another from Escravos to Forcados terminal in Burutu Local Government Area as well as complete Ayakoromo Bridge to link communities in Ughelli South and Burutu Council Areas.
More specifically, further analysis of his comment reveals that while the first part of his comment acts as a morale booster to the state governor, the second part is the demand for the construction of road networks that will link Warri to Escravos terminals in Warri South-West Local Council Area of Delta and another from Escravos to Forcados terminal in Burutu Local Government Area, as well as complete Ayakoromo Bridge to link communities in Ughelli South and Burutu Council Areas, performs agenda-setting function for the state governor and his team.
Continuing, he said the bridge project has lingered for a very long time having been awarded by the now outgone Emmanuel Udughan administration. The project has in fact thrust a responsibility and extremely important destiny; to complete this process of socioeconomic rejuvenation of the people of the riverine community which the state has spent far too long a time doing.
Like the Bomadi Bridge which was executed by Chief James Onanefe Ibori’s administration, connecting three local government areas, (Burutu, Ughele and Patani), likewise, the Ayakoromo bridge going by commentaries, when completed, promises to promote the socioeconomic lives and wellbeing of Deltans living in over in four local governments of the state.
Take, as an illustration, the Bobougbene community and its environs are reputed for the production of palm oil in commercial quantity and supply to Warri metropolis, and Okwuagbe markets in Ugheli South. The bridge when completed will provide easy access to these markets. Even more, it will open up the majority of communities that are yet to have access to the ‘uplands’.
In reputation terms, there are more reasons to applaud Governor Okowa’s effort in this direction. It is said that a leader’s image is an amalgam of a variety of factors, and followers must at intervals evaluate these perceived factors in order to dictate if they are in a positive or negative light.
Particularly, an image is capable of saying much more about a leader than any of his long speeches and verbal declarations and once established, the image becomes not just the leader’s picture but remains highly durable.
Even as this is being internalized, there exists yet another area of concern that in my view needs urgent attention in the coastal area of the state. It is in the areas of bringing primary and secondary schools close to communities in the coastal/riverine communities in the state.
Just very recently, I listened with rapt attention to King Monday Whiskey, Udurhie I, the Ovie of Iderhe Kingdom, speak on the challenges children of his kingdom need to confront to access education.
King Whiskey, who spoke in Lagos, among other things lamented that children in the Niger Delta must attain the age of 12 before starting from primary one because it is only at that age that children can be able to paddle their boat successfully to the other side of the community where their school is located.
In such a case, says Damilola Adeparua, a public affairs commentator, it is arguable that the percentage of uneducated women will be very high since it is only at the age of 12 boys can be allowed to paddle boats, then it will take a supernatural girl of 12 to start at that age. This makes the global statistics feasible that just 39% of rural girls attend secondary school and this is far fewer than that of rural boys, which is 45%, compared to urban girls, which is 59% and urban boys 60%.
Some of the girls who even live in communities which have access to free education and have their schools located in places where it is accessible are denied their right to education based on religious reasons, while some are hampered by poverty.
The issue of children’s education deprivation is not limited to girls as posited by UNICEF that one in every 5 of the world’s out-of-school children is in Nigeria.
Even though primary education is officially free and compulsory, about 10.5 million of the country’s children aged 5-14 years are not in school. Only 61 per cent of 6-11 year-olds regularly attend primary school and only 35.6 per cent of children aged 36-59 months receive early childhood education. Delta State, particularly the people of the coastal communities, is in my opinion not insulated from this challenge.
Why the state urgently needs to act on this new awareness is that school is far or close to the home according to what experts are saying definitely affects the student in many ways.
For the students living far from the school, the long commute every day is physically and mentally tiring and as a result, it’s harder to focus on studying after getting home. Their lifestyle is usually more hectic because of the travel. Most, if not all school-related events are actually near the school so the student has to travel to attend all that, too.
Comparatively, those who live closer to the school, are usually better connected to school and its events because, most, if not all school-related events happen near the school. And because of the small distance, they’re more up to date with it.
Also, a maximum of students who attend a particular school, live close to it, so they’re better connected with each other compared to the folks who live away and therefore tend to have more contacts and more connections. They are also more likely to become popular in school because they know a lot of people. They also are mentally more relaxed because they have a lot of time on their hands and they don’t necessarily have to deal with travelling.
The UNICEF survey says something else; there are still a huge number of those who are in school but are learning nothing, noting that schooling does not always lead to learning. In Nigeria, there are more non-learners in school than out of school, it concluded.
Admittedly, while the people of the region seem certain to make an increasing contribution to the development of the state as a handful of them can now afford the luxury of education and access to good amenities, it is clear in hindsight that the Governor tackled this outlined challenges before handing over to the yet to be identified administration come 2023.
Achieving this feat will give the people of the region sense to feel that they have a governor that not only cares but act as a technique to support the people understanding of the Governor’s vision.
Most importantly, the state needs to pay attention to present challenges in the region as development professionals warn that preparing for the future involves, first of all, training our young citizens to lead the development process, driven by a sense of their absolute duty to maintain our economic evolution. This will encourage them to place their dynamic potential at the service of our society.
Indeed, the state has a wealth of young talents, and it is the responsibility of each and every sector of society to nurture them. This can only be done through proper education, training, support and encouragement; and by scouting for special skills and talents, while also nurturing creative initiatives.
Jerome-Mario Chijioke Utomi is the Programme Coordinator (Media and Public Policy), Social and Economic Justice Advocacy (SEJA), Lagos. He can be reached via [email protected]/08032725374
By Tony Ogunlowo
‘Titanic’ can mean something that is very big, gigantic or enormous and it was also the name of a ship that sank on its maiden voyage.
When the Titanic sank in 1912 it sank due to a number of avoidable factors: a ship deemed unsinkable that wasn’t fitted with watertight compartments, a ‘unprofessional’ seasoned captain who was apparently bullied into going at full speed through known ice-berg strewn waters, lack of common binoculars for the deck watch and the unavailability of enough life boats for all the passengers.
This all put together, as they say, was a recipe for disaster. Red flags were ignored.
Translating this to President Tinubu’s modern-day Nigeria, the avoidable factors that can sink the country are way too obvious.
Nigerians have long enjoyed the benefits of fuel subsidy. Costly as it is to maintain it’s enabled the economy to keep running by keeping the cost of things low. It’s removal, as can be seen, has created a domino effect, as the experts predicted, resulting in the prices of even the basic commodities skyrocketing as everyone passes on the additional costs.
With inflation currently at 32.7% and still rising, things are only going to keep on getting more and more expensive. As a result, the new minimum wage of N70,000 will have less purchasing power than the previous 2021 minimum wage of N30,000. If fuel subsidy removal was meant to boost the economy it has done the opposite and will stagnate any efforts to kickstart it.
The governments inability to control corruption or severely punish corrupt officials which is robbing the country’s coffers of billions and billions of Naira every year is a stumbling block for development.
If a corrupt government official who built 750 houses with stolen funds or an ex-governor accused of misappropriating N80 billion are allowed to walk around freely, supposedly on bail, without fear of eventual conviction it questions the message the government is sending out to future looters: if the culprits were in Russia or China the outcome will be totally different.
Even though an austerity economic policy may seem harsh like it was designed to rob Peter to pay Paul, it should be short, sharp hardship with green pastures in the foreseeable future – not ever! A good start will be to cut down on the number of foreign loans being obtained every year as their repayment can take a huge chunk out of the country’s annual income.
The new tax laws are long overdue and it should include that VAT earned in a state stays in that state: so, if your state doesn’t generate any VAT (- such as from the sale of alcohol products) you don’t get to share in what other states have collected.
Insecurity in the country is not something that started yesterday. Previous governments have blood on their hands for not nipping these insurrections in the bud before they grew to become monstrosities. You don’t pat yourself on the back, like the Nigerian Army likes to do believing you have the threat ‘under control’ – you eliminate the threat completely using what ever means necessary.
Unless the order (given by ‘Somebody’) is not to destroy them completely and to quote the late Sani Abacha,”…any insurgency that lasts more than 24 hours, a government official has a hand in it..”, no wonder Boko Haram continues to flourish and bandits like Turji Bello continue to taut the government. When the armed robber Lawrence Anini did something similar in 1986 he was fished out within months, tried and executed.
As I’ve written before the Nigerian Police Force is long past its sell by date and considering the ever growing population of Nigeria with its associated acts of anti-social behaviour its time to seriously consider devolving the NPF into state-run outfits. The growing popularity of state-run security outfits, such as Amotekun, proves this is feasible and effective.
Considering the fact the country is going through severe economic hardship the President, himself, should curb frivolous spending where possible: no more new Presidential yachts or planes ( – that includes the new one for the VP), a cap on ridiculous-no-real-job SA and SSA appointments and most important of all a cap on ALL politicians salaries and perks (which is to say if politicians are patriotic enough they’ll agree to a pay cut, forgo some of their benefits and pay for their own jaunts abroad).
Implementing the Steve Oronsaye Report which recommends merging and closing of ministries etc that has been passed over by every President since President Goodluck commissioned it in 2011 will cut government operating costs even further. This should not just be at Presidential level but extended to all the states: this will not just streamline the bloated and largely inefficient civil service but will also weed out ghost workers and white elephant project.
The ‘japa’ movement which the government is trying to discourage should be allowed to continue. It’s morally wrong for a government that can’t provide suitable employment for its citizens to try and prevent them from seeking opportunities abroad : ‘japa’ is not just limited to Nigerians, it’s a worldwide phenomenon.
People, British, American, Filipinos, are migrating worldwide to where ever there are opportunities for them to prosper. That’s the way the world works now: nobody is going to stay in a ‘sh*t-hole’ country if there are no opportunities for them to grow. Scr3w patriotism! It’s every man for himself! So, if a country can’t provide adequate employment opportunities people will pack their bags and ‘japa’! And if you restrict them from leaving the country what are they going to do? Get up to mischief – 419, cultism, kidnapping!
These same people send money back to their home countries all the time: Nigerians in diaspora in 2023 alone sent home more than $19.5 Billion Dollars. This is a huge injection of foreign currency for a country that desperately needs it.
So, just like the Titanic the warning signs are there and the inevitable that will happen should they be ignored. The question is which way is President Tinubu going to go. This is what I call the ‘Titanic Wahala’, ignore the obvious and the proverbial will hit the fan, sooner or later.
Feature/OPED
From Rental Shifts to AI Innovations: The Evolving Landscape of South Africa’s Property Sector
By Waldo Marcus
The past year has been challenging for property investors, with a sluggish economy slowing residential rental escalations in most regions in 2024.
Rental escalations are likely to be applied cautiously in 2025 to avoid vacancies, particularly given the potential for a decline in demand for rental properties as tenants, motivated by lower interest rates, migrate to property owners.
Lower rental returns will see investors looking at alternative ways to generate improved income from their investments. Short-term holiday rentals have impacted rental prices in tourist destinations, with higher rental income achieved in peak holiday times, pricing out consumers looking for long-term rental property. This trend, especially in the Western Cape, has some lobbyists calling for stricter regulations to protect consumers from inflated rental prices and a lack of affordable rental supply. SA Tourism has requested better transparency from platform providers. The risk for bond providers is that investors are financing these properties based on current tourism trends and rental income, which relies heavily on the success of platforms like Airbnb.
Consumption changes are driving commercial property growth
The commercial property sector grew in 2024 and this positive trajectory is expected to continue in 2025 as interest rates are lowered. Property developers are focusing on convenient neighbourhood retail and merging with online retailer needs. In urban areas, convenience and easy access are prioritised, while larger developments are succeeding in rural, underserved areas.
Industrial properties, particularly logistics and warehousing in the Western Cape, KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng, continue to outperform other commercial sectors. Secure and well-serviced industrial parks are in demand and expected to grow. However, traditional industrial areas around Johannesburg and the Pretoria CBD face a value collapse due to security risks and inadequate infrastructure maintenance to service the nodes.
ESG is likely to become a high-value agenda item for commercial property investors in 2025 to ensure compliance and reduce operating costs. The latest SAPOA Operating Cost Report reveals that 29% of operating expenses go to electricity costs and 23% to property taxes.
The risk of leakages
Water shortages are the next big challenge, posing a significant risk to property owners. Government and municipalities must act before it becomes another catastrophic reality like Eskom. Addressing water shortages is a dual challenge requiring both the building of and better maintenance of water infrastructure, including sewage treatment plants, and longer-term, the creation of additional reservoirs to keep up with population growth and mitigate climate change risks.
Leakages extend beyond water. Revenue leakages include missed recoveries, escalations, lease changes, and renewal options, to name a few. Increased regulatory requirements have resulted in more time being spent on compliance, and this is not expected to ease. Regulatory and compliance changes and demands on property-related companies remove valuable focus and resources from internal due diligence and processes to prevent revenue and recovery leakages. We predict more organisations will invest in technology resources to identify revenue leakages and focus on tools to drive operating costs down.
The Revolution of AI in the Property Sector
Technology – particularly AI – has become indispensable to the property sector, from AI-powered marketing and presentation tools to automated management systems. While these advancements streamline operations and enhance decision-making, they also introduce new challenges, particularly in data security and risk management.
As we move into 2025, property companies must carefully consider the appropriate balance between AI and human expertise. By striking this balance and implementing robust data protection measures, organisations can harness the power of AI while preserving their brand authenticity and competitive edge.
The Necessity of diversity in Decision-Making
Property investment is a complex and often high-stakes endeavour. As a fixed asset with emotional and financial implications, property valuations and transactions can be challenging. Recent shifts in market perception have further complicated the landscape, with divergent opinions on property’s potential as a wealth generator or alternately, a financial drain.
To navigate this complex market, accurate and reliable data is essential. Mitigating bias and leveraging diverse perspectives allows investors to make more informed decisions. Access to neutral, data-driven insights from respected sources can help uncover hidden opportunities and avoid costly mistakes.
As the property market evolves, tools and information available to investors must also adapt. Companies of all sizes are increasingly recognizing the importance of accurate, accessible, and representative data. They are investing in reliable external data sources to gain a competitive edge and make more strategic decisions.
The lingering effects of high interest rates
Persistently high interest rates raised the cost of credit and placed additional pressure on already strained consumers and businesses. They also dissuaded residential property acquisitions, leading to fewer home loan applications and a decline in the transfer of both bonded and unbonded properties in 2024. Lightstone data reveals that first-time buyer volumes slumped by 20% in 2023.
While welcome, the first two interest rate cuts will take time to filter through to residential property acquisitions. Encouragingly, demand from first-time home buyers appears to be recovering slowly with ooba Home Loans noting a rise in applications to 49.6% in September 2024, the highest reading since November 2022. We expect residential property sales to accelerate in 2025 as interest rate relief starts to filter through, albeit at a slower pace in dysfunctional municipalities.
Individual investors are increasingly choosing to maintain smaller portfolios and using tax-efficient structures such as companies and trusts. TPN anticipates that this trend will persist into 2025. Demand for buy-to-let properties has risen since late 2021, particularly in the Western Cape, followed by the Eastern Cape and Tshwane. Although this trend is expected to continue, it may slow down around mid-2025 as demand shifts from rental properties to ownership.
Municipal performance linked to property value creation
Service delivery quality, infrastructure and the maintenance of that infrastructure impact the value of property types. Well-run municipalities will continue to attract investment. Since 2020, semigration has highlighted the successes and failures of provinces and cities, resulting in decreased revenue collections for some of South Africa’s largest municipalities.
Safety and security continue to influence where South Africans choose to live and work, impacting both the residential and commercial property landscape. Mixed-use developments, secure estates, sectional title properties, and commercial parks offering efficient ways to provide enhanced security, service delivery, productive infrastructure, and maintenance spending will continue to be in demand.
An important consideration that will become increasingly significant in 2025 is the quality and accessibility of the lifestyle available in certain areas. Well-maintained and safe parks, public spaces, beaches, dams, lakes, and other recreational facilities will make these areas more appealing to tenants, businesses, and investors.
The outlook for property KPIs
Residential vacancies are expected to increase in the latter half of 2025 due to lower interest rates and improved consumer confidence. Office and retail vacancies are likely to remain stable in the first half of 2025 but will decrease should business confidence improve and if GDP targets are met. Industrial property vacancies will remain low as demand remains strong, especially in the Western Cape and infrastructure development nodes in Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal.
Rental escalations for commercial and residential properties will improve in the first half of 2025. Investors will be keen to enhance their returns after a period of sluggish economic performance with slightly healthier consumers offering the opportunity to grow rental income strategically.
The good standing of both commercial and residential tenants is expected to continue to improve as landlords use stricter vetting and collection strategies.
Rental property gross yields will, on average, stay the same as property values are expected to increase in line with rental income. The challenge for investors will be to keep operating costs down to maintain or improve net yields.
A favourable outlook for residential housing market
The outlook for the residential housing market is more favourable for 2025 than it has been for the past few years with the property market offering good value overall. The interest rate will likely be cut by a further 50bps by the third quarter of 2025, offering further relief for household finances and renewed activity at both the lower and upper ends of the market. More investments could see an increase in rental property supply and even a potential decline in rental demand as more consumers shift from renting to buying. We expect continued demand for well-managed rental properties.
Waldo Marcus is a Director at TPN from MRI Software
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